THE OPTIMIST

by Demon Head

It wasn't fun growing up as a Melbourne supporter in the early 1980's. Wins were few and far between and when the team tasted victory, you savoured it. Winning matches was a matter of pride for the embattled Demon supporter and even when the season was virtually done and dusted and your team was sitting in tenth place (they had a final five in those days) all you hoped for if you were an optimist like me was that the Dees would string together a couple of late wins and finish eighth so that you might salvage some honour out of a season.

Things have changed these days as I discovered during my recent holiday out west where both of the local sides are struggling this year and a heated controversy rages about whether the Eagles, in particular, are trying to win or whether they are (ahem) "tanking" in order to take advantage of an early draft pick at the end of the year.

As a Demon fan, I must confess that I don't feel as bad as I should when I watch my team struggling for wins, as it has in the past months, because I am also aware of the potential pot of gold at the end of the rainbow in the form of an early national draft selection.

On that note, I was surprised and amused to read the headline on an article this week - "Bailey plans changes for consistency."

What does that mean?

We've been losing games consistently this year, so do we really need to make changes to maintain our consistent losing record?

That's obviously not the tack that Dean Bailey is taking but my immediate reaction was indicative of the effect of all this talk about teams losing to get a better position in the draft.

It's wrong and it's about time the AFL pulled its head out of the sand and did something to change the system. It’s all about perception and as long as the perception is that some clubs are producing mediocre performances and being rewarded for it, then the AFL must act to produce a better draft system. Getting rid of the two year priority system is one way of reducing the effects of the problem. A lottery system would also help.

The irony is that the pot of draft gold may not be all that significant in the real world anyway. In the case of the Melbourne Football Club, an early draft pick would be handy but there are a lot of other things that need to happen, apart from picking up one player among the best of the young kids in the land, in order for a team to improve beyond its current levels.

There have been some recent signs that Dean Bailey has the club on the right track and, though the results might not show it yet, I'm confident we are about to start winning games soon - and it might even be sooner than we think. That's the optimist in me talking but I just have this feeling...

THE GAME

Brisbane v. Melbourne at the MCG, Sunday 29 June 2008 at 1.10pm

HEAD TO HEAD

Overall Melbourne 17 wins Brisbane 14 wins

At the MCG Melbourne wins Brisbane wins

Since 2000 Melbourne 3 wins Brisbane 6 wins

The Coaches Bailey 0 wins Matthews 1 win

MEDIA

TV - Fox Sports 1 live at 1.00pm

RADIO - 774ABC K-Rock SEN Triple M 3AW

THE BETTING Brisbane to win $1.20 Melbourne to win $4.20

LAST TIME THEY MET Brisbane 19.23.137 defeated Melbourne 13.7.85, Round 6, 2008, at the Gabba

History tells that this was the first game of the post David Neitz era. During the preceding week, the skipper was placed on the long-term injury list and a few weeks later, he announced his retirement.

Without their long term leader, the team performed as you would expect a young side to do in the absence of strong leadership - it floundered and without any tall targets, it was left to small men, Nathan Jones (4) and Austin Wonaeamirri (3) to score the goals.

The inevitable losing margin was 52 points but it could easily have been double that but for the home side's inaccuracy in front of goal. Former Demon Travis Johnstone rubbed it in by kicking the first and last goals for the game.

THE TEAMS

MELBOURNE

Backs Matthew Whelan Colin Garland Matthew Warnock

Half backs Brad Green Paul Wheatley Cameron Bruce

Centreline Colin Sylvia Brock McLean Lynden Dunn

Half forwards Chris Johnson Matthew Bate Aaron Davey

Forwards Stefan Martin Brad Miller Austin Wonaeamirri

Followers Paul Johnson Clint Bartram Nathan Jones

Interchange Jace Bode Simon Buckley Mark Jamar Shane Valenti

Emergencies Nathan Carroll Cale Morton Jeff White

In Simon Buckley Stefan Martin Shane Valenti

Out James Frawley (omitted) James McDonald (groin) Jeff White (omitted)

New Stefan Martin (21, Sandringham)

BRISBANE LIONS

Backs Josh Drummond Daniel Merrett Joel Patfull

Half Backs Joel Macdonald Mitch Clark Justin Sherman

Centreline Anthony Corrie Simon Black Tim Notting

Half Forwards Michael Rischitelli Jonathan Brown Ashley McGrath

Forwards Robert Copeland Daniel Bradshaw Jared Brennan

Followers Jamie Charman Luke Power Jed Adcock

Interchange Tom Collier Rhan Hooper Travis Johnstone Troy Selwood

Emergencies Scott Clouston James Polkinghorne Cheynee Stiller

In Daniel Bradshaw Travis Johnstone Justin Sherman

Out Lachlan Henderson James Polkinghorne Cheynee Stiller (all omitted)

AFTER ALL THESE YEARS

Q: When was the last time Brisbane played Melbourne on the MCG?

A: Certainly not at any time during this century.

Melbourne has only played one game against the Lions in its home state since the turn of the century and that was in Round 10 of 2000 in a game played at Telstra Dome. The last eight meetings have been at the Gabba and Brisbane has won six of those games. Now, for the first time since Round 21, 1999 the Demons finally have a true home ground advantage over Lethal's mob. So, after all these years, they have a real chance of beating Brisbane in front of a true home crowd and let's hope that Melbourne fans turn up in their numbers so that Paul McNamee doesn't have to write out a cheque for the privilege of playing on our home soil!

The sceptics will argue that home ground advantage means very little against a side that clearly has the edge in terms of personnel, strength and experience. They will point to the Lions’ on ball brigade headed by the in form Simon Black and Luke Power and the dangerous forward combination of Brown and Bradshaw (the latter has averaged 8 goals at the last three meetings of these clubs). They will also point to the fact that the MCG doesn’t engender fear in the hearts of the boys from Brisbane who completed an 83 point thrashing of Collingwood at that venue late last year just before the Pies started their run that ended with the falling just short of a grand final appearance. And the Lions also gave Melbourne a towelling not all that long ago when the teams met in late April when their midfield completely dominated over the young Demons that day and set up a 52 point win that could easily have been a far greater but for their shocking inaccuracy.

All that aside, and I'm acting more than on just a hunch, I believe that there has been a fair amount of improvement in this young Demon team over the past couple of months despite the injury woes that have seen important players in David Neitz, Russell Robertson, Brent Moloney and now Jared Rivers outed for the season. The introduction of new blood has helped to stiffen the team’s back line and is beginning to fill the enormous holes caused to its attack by the loss of its backbone of many years.

The team's performances remain inconsistent both between and during games but it's their last three games on the home turf of the MCG that has me more than a little impressed. The games were the stirring come from behind victory against the Fremantle Dockers and the two defeats at the hands of Hawthorn and Collingwood.

Against the Hawks Melbourne held a 14 point lead with 5 minutes left in the third term. A lucky break set up a Hawthorn goal and three more followed before the final change. Those 5 minutes cost Melbourne the game. Despite that, they came back to regain the lead twice and give the Hawks an almighty fright before they got home by 19 points. It was much the same against the Magpies with the result in doubt until the last five or so minutes. The Demons are losing but they are doing so because of lapses in parts of games and not for the whole of games as they were in the opening rounds of the season.

The time will come soon when Melbourne puts a full game together or one that's close enough to 100% of match time. When this happens, many will be surprised but not I won’t be because these things go with the territory of being a young developing side.

Why should the victim be Brisbane?

I saw the Lions when they played their last game down here in Melbourne a fortnight ago (and their only game at the G so far this year), and while their opposition that day was all class and a top four combination in the Western Bulldogs, Brisbane was troubled all day. The Lions looked uncomfortable on the G in much the same way as they looked uncomfortable when a young, developing Hawthorn surprised them to win by 8 goals on this very same ground a few years ago.

Therefore, I’m tipping history to repeat itself and that Melbourne will cause a major upset and win this game. The margin will be by a lucky 13 points.

After all, I'm an optimist!