THE STRANGE CASE OF MELBOURNE'S WINNING STREAK

THE STRANGE CASE OF MELBOURNE'S WINNING STREAK by The Oracle (with a little help from Sam the Stats Man)

When Melbourne played Adelaide in Round 10 at the MCG last year, our very own Sam the Stats Man was given the honour of preparing a Demonland match preview for the first time.

Sam took to the task like a dog with a bone. His logical clear reasoning and his clever use of statistical data led him to select the Demons to win that particular encounter at a time when they were 0-9 against the 6-3 Crows. This became a well celebrated tour de force for the Demonland tipping team and worked wonders for Sam personally. No longer was he regarded as a very dry geeky statistician - nowadays he is considered a sheer genius of the highest order.

Though Sam has received the clarion call a little earlier this year, it's far to late for him to claim the title of "icebreaker" for the Melbourne Football Club courtesy of the Demons' brilliant come from nowhere victory over the unfortunate Fremantle Dockers. Still, he has assured me that the club's revival will gather more momentum this weekend and that a resurgent Melbourne outfit will again humble the Crows.

"Why not?", says Sam, "After all, we’re on a winning streak. We haven’t lost a game in almost three weeks and it’s 611 days and 23.5 hours since the Crows last beat us in any game."

OK, he might be a sheer genius but he's still a geek!

Thankfully, Sam's task for this week is not to do the full report but to provide his famous statistical look at the Melbourne list to date in 2008 (a feature which will be repeated one or two more times during the season): -

BARTRAM, Clint MFC - 6 games 0 goals. Returned to the Melbourne side after a lengthy period recuperating from debilitating ankle and knee injuries. As can be expected in the circumstances, he has been steady without setting the world on fire to date.

BATE, Matthew MFC - 1 game 0 goals, SFC Seniors - 2 games 2 goals, SFC Reserves - 1 game 0 goals. Must be the club's lucky charm as he has only played in winning teams after returning from a pre-season hamstring injury.

BELL, Daniel MFC - 7 games 0 goals. Has had a difficult task curbing some talented opposition and has done so with only limited success.

BODE, Jace MFC - 1 game 0 goals, SFC Seniors - 4 games 1 goal. Restricted to just one AFL game where he was quiet.

BRUCE, Cameron MFC - 7 games 3 goals. A pre season knee injury greatly affected his preparation this year and is only slowly returning to form.

BUCKLEY, Simon MFC - 2 games 0 goals, SFC Seniors - 5 games 3 goals. Showed real promise with his pace and running style during the pre season but failed to excite in the opening games of the season. Has been showing good form in recent weeks with the Zebras.

CARROLL, Nathan MFC - 7 games 0 goals. Full back in a team that has often been slaughtered out of the middle is a tough gig. Notwithstanding that, Carroll's form has been inconsistent.

CHENEY, Kyle SFC Seniors - 3 games 0 goals, SFC Reserves - 2 games 0 goals. Learning the ropes at Sandringham but looks a defender of the future.

DAVEY, Aaron MFC - 7 games 6 goals. Has been quiet in a number of games but managed to lift last week against Fremantle with some devastating flashes of his old brilliance.

DUNN, Lynden MFC - 5 games 3 goals, SFC Seniors - 1 game 0 goals. Disappointing both as a run with midfielder and as a forward.

FRAWLEY, James MFC - 3 games 0 goals, SFC Seniors - 3 games 0 goals. Starting to come of age with some promising form as a tall defender in the past two or three weeks.

GARLAND, Colin MFC - 4 games 0 goals, SFC Seniors - 2 games 0 goals. Struggled early in the year but was good against the Dockers after a couple of runs at Sandy.

GREEN, Brad MFC - 7 games 11 goals. A consistent year from Green who must be disappointed not to have been included in the leadership group.

GRIMES, Jack - yet to hit the track and is on the long term injury list with back problems. Expected to return in a few week's time and, going on reports of his junior career, it will be worth the wait.

HOLLAND, Ben SFC Seniors - 4 games 8 goals. His career seems to have come to a standstill.

JAMAR, Mark MFC - 4 games 1 goal, SFC Seniors - 2 games 1 goal. Gained a lucky break when Paul Johnson broke his hand and has shown improved form with the Demons after a slow start.

JOHNSON, Chris MFC - 2 games 0 goals, SFC Seniors - 4 games 3 goals. Still an in-between player who can't establish a place for himself at elite level.

JOHNSON, Paul MFC - 3 games 0 goals, SFC Seniors - 1 game 1 goal. The club's big improver early in the season is coming back from injury.

JONES, Nathan MFC - 7 games 6 goals. Although he was well held against the Dockers, Jones has been a steady improver in 2008 and is becoming a quality midfield dynamo for the club.

MARIC, Addam SFC Seniors - 6 games 11 goals. Still very young, has shown great skills at Sandringham and should be able to break into the Melbourne team at some stage during the season.

MARTIN, Stefan SFC Seniors - 6 games 0 goals. Athletic tall who is being groomed as a key defender in his games with Sandringham and has been very impressive.

McDONALD, James MFC - 7 games 1 goal. Continues to be a work horse for the club but hasn't been able to reach the heights of his last two seasons

McLEAN, Brock MFC - 7 games 1 goal. Leads the club in disposals and was best on ground in his team's stirring victory over the Dockers.

McNAMARA, Tom SFC Reserves - 4 games 1 goal. Youngster developing on a half back flank with Sandy twos.

MEESEN, John SFC Seniors - 5 games 0 goals. Agile tall man who is standing behind Jamar and P Johnson for the second ruck spot behind Jeff White.

MILLER, Brad MFC - 6 games 6 goals. Has put in some encouraging performances as a key forward in recent weeks.

MOLONEY, Brent MFC - 4 games 1 goal, SFC Seniors - 1 game 0 goals. Has had his ups and downs but seems to be settling back into the swing of things after two years of injury woes.

MORTON, Cale MFC - 7 games 2 goals. A fine prospect for the future.

NEITZ, David MFC - 5 games 3 goals. Has had poor start to his last season as a Demon and has not been helped by a neck injury that has put him on the long term injury list.

NEWTON, Michael MFC - 1 game 1 goal, SFC Seniors - 3 games 3 goals. Has failed to live up to expectations and did not help his cause when reported at Sandy at the same time that David Neitz suffered his injury.

PETTERD, Ricky MFC - 1 game 0 goals. Has missed several weeks with a groin injury and is still 3 to 4 weeks away and this hasn't helped him coming back from last year's life threatening lung problem.

RIVERS, Jared MFC - 5 games 0 goals, SFC Seniors - 1 game 0 goals. Slowly coming back to the Rivers we knew before his injury problems of last year and his return has lifted the club.

ROBERTSON, Russell MFC - 7 games 15 goals. The club's leading goal kicker who has had a few cameo roles up forward but has generally disappointed. Needs to play a few games where he's up and firing all day instead of for just one quarter.

SPENCER, Jake ® SFC Seniors - 3 games 1 goal, SFC Reserves - 2 games 1 goal. Showing a bit in the ruck at Sandy but remains a long term project.

SYLVIA, Colin MFC - 5 games 2 goals. Discipline problems and more lately a hamstring injury have curtailed what should have been his break out season. Has played some good games but now it might well be back to square one for the talented blond.

VALENTI, Shane ® SFC Seniors 6 games 6 goals. The VFL ball magnet has been promoted off the rookie list and will get his chance in the big show despite all the doubters who believe he is too small and too slow for an AFL career. Hope he proves them wrong.

WARNOCK, Matthew MFC - 2 games 0 goals, SFC Seniors - 4 games 0 goals. Getting a go at the top level and will need to show some consistency.

WEETRA, Isaac MFC - 2 games 0 goals, SFC Seniors - 1 game 0 goals, SFC Reserves - 4 games 2 goals. Disappointing fall from grace after two early games with the Demons.

WHEATLEY, Paul MFC - 7 games 2 goals. Has been steady and solid in what has been a difficult season so far for the club. Out with a calf injury this week.

WHELAN, Matthew MFC - 2 games 0 goals, SFC Seniors - 3 games 1 goal. Struggling with injuries and illness and that suspension incurred in the Carlton game has not helped.

WHITE, Jeff MFC - 7 games 4 goals. One of the competition's leading ruckmen, White has been steady in what surely must be the twilight of his career. Plays his 100th consecutive game at the weekend.

WONAEMIRRI, Austin ® MFC - 5 games 9 goals, SFC Seniors - 1 game 1 goal. A livewire surprise packet who has been in sparkling form with seven goals in his past two games.

YZE, Adem MFC - 1 game 0 goals, SFC Seniors - 5 games 6 goals. The end of a great career is closing in on the ooze. Missed last week at Sandy and is finding it tough to get back into the AFL.

ZOMER, Trent ® SFC Reserves - 5 games 17 goals. Learning the art of forward play at the Sandy reserves and is also getting the occasional back up job as a second ruckman there.

THE GAME:

Adelaide v. Melbourne at the AAMI Stadium – 18 May 2008 at 1.10pm (AEST)

HEAD TO HEAD:

Overall: Adelaide 16 wins Melbourne 9 wins

At AAMI: Adelaide 10 wins Melbourne 3 wins

Since 2000: Adelaide 8 wins Melbourne 4 wins

The Coaches: Craig 0 Bailey 0

MEDIA:

TV Fox Sports 1 1pm (live)

RADIO ABC774 SEN

THE BETTING Adelaide to win $1.06 Melbourne to win $7.50

LAST TIME THEY MET Melbourne 13.11.89 d Adelaide 10.12.72, Round 10, 2007, at MCG.

The Demons' hard-earned 17-point victory against the highly favoured Crows was as sweet as they come. They shocked their visitors with an eight goal second quarter and by the final break the lead had blown to 44 points. Adelaide came back in the final term but it was all too late. Melbourne had defied the odds and the critics with their first victory of the season and the pressure on coach Neale Daniher was momentarily eased.

Brad Green played the game of his life and was well backed up by Cameron Bruce while Daniel Bell played his best hame yet for the club.

THE TEAMS

ADELAIDE

Backs Graham Johncock Ben Rutten Nathan Bassett

Half backs Michael Doughty Nathan Bock Scott Stevens

Centreline David Mackay Scott Thompson Nathan van Berlo

Half forwards Simon Goodwin Brett Burton Bernie Vince

Forwards Jason Porplyzia Kurt Tippett Chris Knights

Followers Jonathon Griffin Andrew McLeod Tyson Edwards

Interchange Luke Jericho Ivan Maric Kris Massie Robert Shirley

Emergencies Bryce Campbell Jarrhan Jacky Ken McGregor

In Luke Jericho Ivan Maric Ben Rutten

Out Richard Douglas (knee) Jarrhan Jacky James Sellar (omitted)

MELBOURNE

Backs James Frawley Colin Garland Daniel Bell

Half backs Clint Bartram Jared Rivers Cameron Bruce

Centreline Brad Green Brock McLean Matthew Bate

Half forwards Cale Morton Russell Robertson Brent Moloney

Forwards Aaron Davey B.Miller Austin Wonaeamirri

Followers Jeff White James McDonald Nathan Jones

Interchange Simon Buckley Mark Jamar Shane Valenti Matthew Warnock

Emergencies Jace Bode Simon Nathan Carroll Paul Johnson

In Simon Buckley Shane Valenti

Out Nathan Carroll (omitted) Paul Wheatley (calf)

New (Shane Valenti, 21, from Sandringham)

Umpires Fila Meredith Ellis

DR. JEKYLL OR MR. HYDE

Melbourne coach Dean Bailey threw down the gauntlet in no uncertain manner earlier this week when he told reporters that he ruled out considering a youth policy that would guarantee a high draft pick. You could leave that to clubs like Essendon and West Coast who seem intent on bottoming out with a youth-led resurgence. As far as the Demons were concerned, the idea was to build momentum.

"The first two games still represent a bit of a scar there and we just can't accept that," Bailey said.

"For us to develop the list, the best way is to get a winning culture and that is what we really need to do."

That’s exactly the spirit required to ensure that the home side is quaking in its boots with apprehension as Melbourne’s raid on the City of Churches draws near and Neil Craig has stated that he is concerned about what his team might be facing on Sunday at AAMI Stadium. What worries him most is which Demon will arrive at Adelaide Airport tomorrow.

Will it be Dr. Jekyll or Mr. Hyde?

Nobody can really be sure if this week's Melbourne team will play like Robert Louis Stevenson’s extremely friendly and sociable Dr. Jekyll or the sinister and dangerous Mr. Hyde. What must really frighten Craig is the fact that for the first six and a half games of the season, the Demons played like meek little pussy cats (with apologies to Geelong) but in their last half game against the Dockers they attacked the football with the ferocity of a wounded lion. Since Craig is known for his scientific bent, he has clearly detected that his opposition this week is affected by what is known as "dissociative identity disorder" and he must be wary of the fact that the Mr. Hyde traits have gained ascendency.

Just look how blokes like Cameron Bruce and Aaron Davey played against the Dockers in the second half and that's not to mention the formerly reclusive but now an excitement machine in Austin Wonaeamirri. And what about the mild mannered redhead Matthew Bate who dropped marks and fumbled in the first half and then turned into a match winner with his strong hands and long deliberate kicks to advantage deep in the forward line?

I’m not getting carried away however, because the bookies must know something. Despite Melbourne’s 56-point turnaround after half time in the Fremantle game, they have installed the home team as an almost unbackable favourite in this game at odds close to the ones they offered on Geelong when Melbourne played the Cats at Skilled Stadium a month ago.

And why not?

The Crows are up there in the top four with five wins out of seven games to date and they have Brett Burton, Simon Goodwin and Jason Porplyzia starring up forward, Scott Thompson approaching stardom in the middle and Andrew McLeod motoring around half back.

As I continue to write, I feel my personality slowly changing. When I started out, I felt strongly that the Demons would win this. I don't know what's happening to me now but I seem to be fighting an inner conflict of humanity's sense of good and evil. Perhaps the evil will prevail and Adelaide will prevail by 14 points but at $1.06 the win, I wouldn't bet on it!