THE LOST WEEKEND

THE LOST WEEKEND by The Oracle

Despite the manufactured hype of tonight's Hall of Fame match, there's nothing that excites me about the break in the AFL season. There will be no Melbourne players wearing the Big V, nor will any don the pukey white number chosen for members of The Dream Team.

That is, unless you count former Demons like Troy Simmonds or DT emergency Nathan Bassett who was on our list for five minutes more than a decade ago, never played a game and was traded away for virtually nothing. Or you might want to count Chri$ Judd who wore the red and blue as a kid but turned his back on his childhood dream team of playing in Garry Lyon's famous number three for a bucket load of cash and a possible dream job in the future as chief environmental officer with a paper and cardboard conglomerate whose boss specialises in corporate ------------ … no, forget that. I'm over it all now!

The point I'm making is that all this razzmatazz counts for nothing with me and the only thing I associate with this Dream Team game is one big ... YAWN!

Having got that off my chest, I thought the best way to cover this lost weekend was to ignore the distraction and to take a look at where the actual competition is headed insofar as the premiership race is concerned. As I see it, the teams have neatly fallen into three separate blocs comprising the top four, the finals contenders and the also rans.

THE TOP FOUR

Geelong, Hawthorn, Western Bulldogs and Adelaide clearly lead the pack and it will take some calamity to dislodge any one of this group from an all-important top four placing at the end of the season.

The Cats always looked as if they might be stronger than they were in the premiership year, and although they are just in cruise mode at the moment, they still look the goods with their overall class and depth.

I was in two minds about the Hawks before the season started but any doubts I had were dispelled quickly (by half time in round 1). They will strongly challenge the incumbent.

I also had doubts about the Western Bulldogs and Adelaide but both clubs have risen to the occasion.

Like the Hawks, the Bulldogs are reaping the benefits of the drafting bonanza the received from bottoming out a few years ago with Adam Cooney and Ryan Griffen maturing beautifully. Their recent trades in Jason Akermanis, Ben Hudson and Scott Welsh have all added depth and their added strength and aggression have enabled them to defy the critics who felt they might struggle after a poor finish in 2007.

Adelaide coach Neil Craig has worked wonders with a side that has not really featured in the high draft selections. He has built his team around clever drafting and list management highlighted by some great use of the rookie list from where he has unearthed some rare gems. He has quietly gone about rebuilding a workmanlike midfield that has managed to slip under the radar and has been very effective for him so far this season while Griffin and Tippett have covered what looked like being a problematic void in his big man department.

THE FINALS CONTENDERS

I have six teams in this group – St. Kilda, Sydney, North Melbourne, Collingwood, Port Adelaide and Brisbane – with two others in Carlton and Richmond knocking on the door (but it's not quite opening for them).

The Saints are fast becoming the AFL's coodabeens. They have promised a lot over the past four years but a combination of injuries, poor coaching and bad luck have conspired against this talent-laden side. Everybody agrees that they've been playing poorly this year but they are still in fifth spot. The problem is that their current spate of injuries co-incides with a tough run over the coming weeks. They recruited some depth in the past two off seasons but the incoming talent is not quite right and they might well struggle to play finals football this year.

Sydney won a premiership playing the "ugly duckling" in 2005, nearly won another in 2006 and it has tended to recruit players nearing their use by date. Despite continuing to play ugly and despite the antics of a team leader cum prize fighter key forward facing a long stint on the sidelines, the Swans continue to defy the odds (that’s not hard to do when you pit 19 men against 18 and manage to get away with it) and look set to participate in the finals again although I expect their stay to be brief.

North Melbourne saved itself from relocation to the Gold Coast but could still rue the day it decided to stay in Melbourne (no pun intended). The Kangaroos always manage to stay out of gaol and to chalk up some impressive performances but I'm not convinced and I think they will ultimately miss out on a finals berth.

Collingwood was gifted the obligatory easy draw thanks to its status as the AFL's love child courtesy of its drawing power in a competition where money means more than establishing a level playing field for all of its participants. The bastards have struck it lucky with a Friday night game against injury ravaged St. Kilda, a game that neither side can afford to lose. I don't think the Saints can win this one so the Pies get another reprieve. The kind fixture should ensure that they will also remain in the limelight and on the back page of the HUN every second morning until the finals come around. I expect them to fade out quickly after that but, even when they're eliiminated from the competition, they will remain on the back pages for some reason or other.

Port Adelaide has taken a while to recover from the shock waves of its 2007 grand final disaster but is now back on the winning list. The Power have a tough road ahead, but I expect them to clamber into the top eight in the near future and, in all probability, they will stay there.

Brisbane coach Leigh Matthews has done a fantastic job rebuilding his team after its great premiership run ended earlier in the decade. The Lions remain contenders after a poor first up effort when they lost to West Coast who haven't troubled the scorers since that game. With Brown and Bradshaw occupying the key forward posts and obtaining good service from their midfield, the Lions are genuine contenders.

THE ALSO RANS

Perhaps it's somewhat unfair to Carlton and Richmond who have both improved this season to still be in this group and not among the contenders. The Blues have been lifted with the inclusion of Judd and Matthew Kreuzer and the coming of age of some of their younger brigade but their depth hasn't really been tested yet. And if they lose another game or two and reach the halfway mark with say, only four wins, I wouldn't put it past them to suddenly and mysteriously fall apart at the seams as they did last year.

By all rights, Richmond should be occupying a place in the top six right now. The Tigers were stiff to miss out on two premiership points when they drew against the Dogs, were impressive in defeat against the Hawks and should have beaten St. Kilda last week. Their next match is against Geelong and that will test their mettle. The lost opportunities of the past few weeks will probably come back to bite them.

This brings us to the real contenders for the Naitanui/Rich Cup (the jury remains out as to which of the two Sandgropers is going to be taken at number one in the 2008 National Draft).

Essendon looked the goods early in the season after putting in some handy NAB Cup performances and smashing North Melbourne in Round 1. Since then it's been downhill all the way and a big injury list is set to ensure that that the Bombers remain in contention for one of those prize early draft picks.

The Fremantle Shockers have fluctuated from world beaters to shark droppings and they struggle to win games. Their recruiting policy has been strongly criticised – they have the oldest list in the competition – and the coach is under heavy fire from the media and their own fans. They have the capacity to regroup but they won't get out of the basement this year.

West Coast held top position on the AFL table as late as Round 10 last year and finished in third place before bowing out of the finals in straight sets. The loss of two of the best midfielders in the land and the off field controversy has not helped its cause. In the interim, the Eagles have managed to win only one game with a record so abysmal that it compares only slightly more favourably to that of Melbourne. They are no longer flying high and in fact, their fall from grace has been staggering and threatens to continue.

Until last week I was considering putting Melbourne in a separate category of its own – even below that of the also rans but the inspirational last half against the Dockers has seen their promotion to this group for now. Despite the optimism that result has engendered, the Demons remain favourites to collect the prized scalp of Nick Naitanui at the end of the year. Or will it be Daniel Rich?