Demon Dynasty

Ok folks, 6 Matches in and we have a bit of data to work with.

Firstly some good news courtesy of Champion Data.

The Demons are giving up 42 points per game less versus last season's average. That's a big turnaround. In addition we're the only team in the AFL, so far, who has yet to give up a coast to coast goal to the opposition. I'm not sure how many we gave up last year at this stage but i'd be betting it was a few more than the big O

Lets take a look at some rankings on some popular team junk stats versus league averages. I've also included the Hawks and Cat's rankings as well just so we have a reference point on the 2 most successfull teams in the last 7 years. For those interested i've included the last 6 matches under Neeld (Rnds 6 to 11, 2013).

Tackle Average (per game)

Demons 64.3 (12) Neeld 60.5

League 66.8

Cats 74.0 (4)

Hawks 52.5 (18)

Clearances

Demons 30.8 (18) Neeld 31.8

League 38.7

Hawks 41.3 (5)

Cats 35 (17)

Contested

Demons 131.3 (17) Neeld 116.7

League 139.5

Cats 143.5 (6)

Hawks 143.3 (7)

Uncontested

Demons 217.7 (8) Neeld 184.3

League 222.3

Hawks 260.7 (2)

Cats 217.5 (9)

Effective Disposals

Demons 253.3 (11) Neeld 213.3

League 261.4

Hawks 300.2 (2)

Cats 257.7 (8)

Effective Disposal %

Demons 71.7 (10) Neeld 69.8

League 71.4

Hawks 73.7 (4)

Cats 72.0 (7)

Clangers (lower rank = better)

Demons 44.2 (6) Neeld 47.0

League 45.5

Hawks 44.0 (5)

Cats 47.8 (13)

Contested Marks

Demons 7.2 (16) Neeld 7.8

League 8.7

Cats 12.2 (1)

Hawks 8.5 (9)

i50s

Demons 41.8 (18) Neeld 36.2

League 49.8

Cats 55.7 (1)

Hawks 54.5 (3)

Marks i50

Demons 8.3 (15) Neeld 6.5

League 10.7

Cats 16.2 (1)

Hawks 13.5 (3)

I was thinking about our overall progress the other day....

Keeping Sydney goalless for a qtr, kept them to 9 goals for the game and only lose to them by 31 pts - I'd say that's progress.

Let's be patient, we're in good hands and the ship is being turned slowly.

It's a hopefull sign Worm. Need Garland to return and find some form off HB though IMO as well as one or 2 other classy running outsiders through the middle who can hit targets. Possibly Salem/Kent/Tyson here?

Need the Hulk on the park as well and a full season under his belt with the rest of the crew. 2016 maybe?

RN I have said this before about DJ but here goes again.

I have a good friend who was at the MFC as a player when DJ arrived, every player on the roster knew he was getting paid 5 times more than the better players and 10 times more than the average player.

The majority simple held the attitude that if he is that good let him get the bloody ball himself.

Now while he was not as good as he was cracked up to be the way the whole thing was handled by the administration was a classic case of what not to do.

DJ was doomed before his first game.

So Mr D.... what you' re saying is...the folding stuff he was on put a whole lot of noses outta joint and he was shunned on the field and hung out to dry by the bulk of his team mates? If so it sounds like a pretty unfortunate set of circumstances.

great post rusty. we have been looking for a footy god to release us, since the days of Diamond Jim Tilbrook, since the club run by smart cleancut business types in suits, cut-down our real Footy Saviour, & with him the golden ways to prosperity.

its these sterile ways that need the chop, to move forward.

Ha...thx Dee. Diamond Jim. Im pretty sure i saw all 4 games lol or thereabouts.. The only memories i recall about Jim was he was built like a brick shyte house, could kick massive torps and his on field performance was about 10 rungs below the massive hype surrounding his pending arrival.

And as for a footy god....hoping it will be Mr Roos who finally jolts this place out of its 7 year apathy. He'll need to find a champion or 2 (maybe more) in the draft to make it happen though me thinks. Fingers crossed that Hulk will be one of these if we can get him fixed.

Whilst you're right to an extent, RN, I think perhaps Watts' disposal efficiency in the past has wallpapered the other flaws in his game.

Clearly his disposal was not the main issue. I was merely saying that the one thing that can shield hm from some heat most weeks was all but completely absent on the weekend - that is his classy use of the ball. It only served to highlight his usual lack of intensity.

To a limited extent out in the public eye yes, i personally look for that in every AFL footballer when watching the game ie, defensive effort side vs attacking capability and disposal skills. It' s pretty much a minimum required standard from all AFL clubs now that you're capable going both ways....regardless of how clever a player might be with disposal skills.

Watching a replay, the other reason the heat has come onto Watts this week is because his kicking was decidedly poor. Those laser passes can partially compensate for his other shortcomings but that was lacking on the weekend with 60% DE.

Confidence continues to be an issue. If Roos can rectify this, he'll have won half the battle.

I don't think this is a significant reason for the heat this week P man. Yes, he is down on confidence and is certainly off with disposal.

But I think anyone who's seen a fair bit of Watts realises it's not the disposal/goal shooting side of his game that's the issue (ie., when he receives the ball).

It's what he isn't doing and the lack of effort shown when he/we haven't got the ball that's the issue here and has been throughout his career so far.

Guys i think half the problem here is a list that is so lacking in depth. It means out of form or NQR players, like Watts, aren't replaced by obvious talent/effort players at Casey who are pushing up.

I think if that were the case we wouldn't be too worried. I realise Watts is a No.1 draftee but in a club with a much deeper list, he would be just another young developing player who may or may not make it down at Casey level over the next year or so and just maybe push his way into a very solid senior team (pushing a very good player out IF he shows super promise rather than just "ok" form).

Part of the problem lies in our history of poor recruiting/development so far. If we fix this we solve the issue of players continuing to get a guernsey when they clearly aren't up to it yet or are in poor form. This applies to Watts or anyone who isn't a proven senior AFL level player already with years of experience/quality results and/or a champion of the club.

With regard to Watt's effort on the weekend in particular, if Roosy TRULY believes that was acceptable and he deserves a follow up game, then Mr Roos i hate to say it, but we are on a very fast train to nowhere.

Since you need someone to draw you a diagram...

No one is happy with Watts' performance, least of all me.

But it has become a bloodsport for stupid people who are bored during the match, hurling abuse whenever they see him on the field, regardless of whether he is at fault for something or not.

Irrespective of his performance, that crowd behaviour is not warranted, it is classless, and it is for the bottom feeders.

While i agree with the fact that some in the crowd are slagging off at him even when he's doing something right, he kills off any chance of that not happening by being one of the poorest defensive/effort players on the field far too often.

On the second part, you seriously haven't attended enough matches, or maybe you have but it's been in a reserved seating "Redlegs" area or something, if you think there will be a time when there isn't bad behavior (which for others might appear to be normal footy crowd nonsense) or, in your words, "bottom feeders" getting their jollies at the expense of other supporters, players or umpires. It's been happening at the footy since the day dot. Don't stress so much about 'em. Just enjoy the match or i can guarantee you'll have very little hair left at the end of this season.

I was happy with our defensive efforts, but how many throws did sydney get away with? how many incorrect disposals, chopping arms in marking contests. it was pretty ridiculous. I noticed it most when we started to get a run on. frustrating.

Pedersen was pretty good. couldn't cop,plain at all.

Dunne was fantastic, his disposal efficiency must have been fantastic, ill have to have a look.

plenty of good efforts, just gotta get it forward more.

improving every week.

if we keep on this trend, we will put a good game together for richmond.

Often you find that players who spend alot of their time in the last line of defence have a distorted DE Deez due to a decent amount of disposals being lateral handballs/foot passes under pressure (or maybe not under pressure) and outlet kicks from the kick in to pockets etc.

That said, you are correct in thinking it must have been fab. Dunn topped the DE rating for the team with 92.3% in yesterday's match. Not a PB for him though. That was against the Eagles in Rnd 2 ... 93.8%.

The best result so far this year, at least for a player with say 15 possessions or more (ie., something worth considering), was Watts with 96.3% in Rnd 1 vs The Saints. Might have been playing off FB for a good part of the match to achieve this. Someone here might remember the details.

faaaaaaarrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk

Someone get a voodoo doll and excercise this club....

I think i'll bring one to the G next home game ...getting too freaky for me.

Being the Melbourne "Demons", surely we must have a few practicing wiccans out there. Come on guys, get a circle going and cast a protection spell or something!

A bit late but thread isn't closed so....

6. Dunn

5. N Jones

5. Cross

3. Pedersen

2. Vince

1. M Jones

I'm not a huge rap for Justin Westhoff, who is liable to go missing in big games and if he is manned up. But Westhoff plays enough good games to be considered a more than reasonable AFL footballer. Watts could do worse than model his game on Westhoff, who has a similar build and similar skills.

Excellent example of what a slight build player can achieve at this level IF he wants to and he applies himself TT. I made this exact point to "she who must be obeyed" on way to game yesterday. There's no excuses at this level for effort and self development after 5 full pre seasons.

"Do you want to play footy, mate? I'm not sure if you want to play football, or not. That sort of effort isn't helping your footy club," Brown said.

"He needs to start having some sort of urgency around the footy." - Nathan Brown - The Sunday Footy Show.

Full article here: http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/jack-watts-urged-to-work-harder-20140427-zr0ch.html#ixzz304DKMqmY

Ughh....our only decent player with attacking flair/run off HB and he's out after his return game at Casey for a few minutes. Amazing....should i say it?

We are still SO inexperienced!

When was the last time we had the oldest or most experienced list in the competition? And when will it happen again I wonder?

I wouldnt want to be the oldest but we sure lack experience against most except the newbies like GWS who on paper we should have knocked over if experience counted for anything.

This wont change soon until we find quality ins for some gaping holes chook. How long is a piece of string is the answer i guess.

I'm liking our ranking for effective disposals.

8th for clangers is a huge improvement on last season, I'd accepts. But still rubbish.

Me too. And if we can make more of them forward thrusts i think we'll see the i50s improve a bit. Then we just need players to clunk a bit more in there and kick accurately. Severely lacking some good contested marking capability both up forward and around the ground. All easy to say of course.

The big Russian might help with contested marks somewhat but probably not in tonight's weather.

Big shame re Hulk's back. We really needed another genuine marking option up forward who can kick multiple goals. And not saying he would be our savior here in the short term even if in. Just a handy addition to keep us in games a little longer and possibly win a extra ones throughout the year, taking the focus off Dawes as well and another tall from the opposition to man him up.

Some Rankings and a look at the 2 teams age/experience etc. Please note that games experience/age/weight etc do not include changes for Rnd 6.

Average Attributes @ Rnd 5 2014

Demons Attribute Swans

187.4cm Height 186.0cm

87.3kg Weight 87.0kg

24yr 7mth Age 26yr 2mth

61.7 Games 101.9

Total Players By Games @ Rnd 5 2014

Demons Games Swans

12 Less than 50 6

5 50 to 99 4

3 100 to 149 6

2 150 or more 6

Note: Blue Headers indicate Demons ahead, red the Swans.

Contested

Demons 15 / 131 (Rank/Ave per game)

Swans 3 /148

Cats 5 / 147

*League ave 141

Uncontested

Demons 10 / 214

Swans 14 / 203

Cats 8 / 219

*League 221

Effective Disposals

Demons 11 / 252

Swans 14 / 243

Cats 8 / 262

*League 260

Effective Disposal %

Demons 8 / 71.9

Swans 15 / 67.9

Cats 7 / 72.0

*League 71.2

Tackles

Demons 14 / 63

Swans 1 / 78

Cats 3 / 74

*League 68

Clangers

Demons 8 / 46

Swans 17 / 50

Cats 13 / 48

*League 46

Contested Marks

Demons 15 / 7

Swans 8 / 9

Cats 2 / 11

*League 9

i50

Demons 18 / 43

Swans 8 / 51

Cats 1 / 57

*League 50

Marks i50

Demons 13 / 9

Swans 9 / 10

Cats 1 / 16

*League 11

Clearances

Demons 18 / 31

Swans 10/ 39

Cats 15 / 36

*League 39

1 %ers

Demons 9 / 52

Swans 4 / 55

Cats 12 / 50

*League 51

* League average figures exclude MFC

Data: courtesy of Footywire

Goodes will be rusty as hell

Kinda glad hes come in to be honest

Rusty players have a habit of a good first up game against us before the rust kicks in. But here's hoping. He is 34 after all and the game does seem faster this year.

The said Adam Goodes is the Australian of the year and is said to be as strong as an...

Goodes is a massive in and has torn us to pieces in the past, but he will be as rusty as an old iron gate. But please no-one has ever effectively tagged him so don't waste a player on him this time.

Great to see Salem in. You can't ignore genuine young talent when it shines in a quality game at VFL level.

Not surprised to see Jamar come straight in. Roos' method in the past has been for an older, big bodied ruckman to hold the spot against all challengers.

A bit surprised about Byrnes, even though I am not his biggest critic. It will be interesting to see how he goes with Dawes and Frawley doing the big man work.

A bit surprised about Watts being kept in.

Unfortunately their midfield will kill us.

All this negativity..... a little overwhelming

Interesting stats, and we all know that stats are the bees' knees, and never lie :-) , for those who praise Jamar's around the ground marking as a strength:

Jamar - career average 2.3 marks per game vs Spencer 2.6

Compare those for example with Cox 4.4, Sandilands 3.2, and our own Gawnius Maximus 2.9

Just pointing out that IMO MJ doesn't offer much (anymore) than a lot of hit outs, few of which are to advantage and fewer that result in clearances (though I acknowledge that he hasn't had the opportunity to ruck to our new and improved more mature midfield).

I'm in total agreement Mono.

It's a marginal call slightly in favor of the big Russian IMO.

Just out of interest....

Average Contested Marks from 9 games last year for Jamar 1.10

For the 5 Rounds so far this year, Spencil 0.40

Dean Cox, widely regarded as the best in the business, averaging 1.0 per game in season 2014

Just noticed it. Apologies to all! It was demon3 and I have changed the original post.

No biggy Col. Cheers mate

I'm not here nor there on Gazza's opinion. If you can sling shot it out of those defensive zones ala Geelong, you can be very exciting. For teams who are of a lower skill level, it can be a nightmare to watch. I agree with the Gaz Man on that front.

I don't mind Gaz showing his face at the club and in fact I think he should. We shouldn't burn him or Cuddles off because of what happened. We have been too eager to throw people to the wolves too often.

However, as I said before and I say this as unlike Rusty Nails, I don't know Gaz personally: brilliant player, shocker of a politician/kingmaker/administrator.

However, his playing contribution makes him a great of the club and we should respect that.

I think you're confusing me with Demon3 as he is now using the same avatar as mine Col.

This could spell trouble ~ gulp

Both sides take contested pressure marks..

If only....

We are a fair way off WYL. It's an important factor letting us down week in and week out and has been for a few years now.

The Cats are 2nd only to Port Power in "contested marks" averages so far this season.

Hawks are 10th here and The Demons 15th.

We average approx 20% less contested marks compared to the Hawks and about 63% vs the Cats. Approx 19% less contested marks every week vs the league average.

Yep. Cross and JKH massive positives for me so far. JKH obviously a long road ahead but love the early signs.

It's no accident that Cross leads the tackle averages so far this season, 4th in clearances and 6th overall in effective disposals.

Let's hope he can keep it up. Been a huge helping hand through the middle so far and is providing Jonesy with a decent chop out.

I like T Mac in the main but his kicking is deplorable and he is whether the many care to admit it or not a major culprit in turnovers. A lot of good work comes undone through this.

You wont climb ladders with players that given the opposition a better than even crack. His game attributes arent fully rounded. Good rebound footy occurs when defenders can deliver the ball back into a attacking thrust kind of play. Tommy cant deliver it this way. Its T Mac that ought to be playing the 3rd up defender role not the one he has to date. Garland coming back may ease this but then what does this say..

I simply cant abide players who cant kick. Its football.Footballers need to be able to kick. T Mac game is built around everything else so when this is off the boil he rapidly descends into "not much use" out there, Hes not alone granted.

If he cant learn to kick effectively....what is the point.

As to the season so far Id say the Carlton game was his best, agreed... not a great deal happening otherwise. Not his best start yet. Yes, hes been asked to fill a slightly different role. He obviously cant

Agree with this sentiment BB.

It's hard to watch some of our boys coming out of the back line at times. Garland might take some pressure off T Mac here though and hopefully free his mind up a little and maybe even guide him a little when it comes to options etc. What we do need is to replace each soldier with a better one. I'm not sure we have too many "better ones" running around at Casey atm.

Effective Disposal % is a very questionable stat, especially down back where we see so many junk/panic disposals and strategic switches, but 1 percenters and tackling are a little less questionable (maybe). We should also be looking at these numbers in comparison to League averages (if i had that sort of time and could be bothered).

Lets look at some numbers so far down back....

Player Averages

Effective Disposal % / Team Ranking

Georgiou / 2

Grimes / 6

McDonald / 8 (Ranked 12 up to Rnd 17 last season with 75.1% vs this season so far 76.2%. Slight improvement? AFL average is presently running at approx 70.9% but that's overall. Need to see the one for backline players only).

Dunn / 11

Terlich / 12

Pederson / 16

1% ers / Team Ranking

McDonald / 1

Pederson / 2

Georgiou / 3

Dunn / 5

Grimes / 7

Terlich / 9

Tackles / Team Ranking

Pederson / 6

Terlich / 8

Georgiou / 19

Grimes / 21

McDonald / 23

Dunn / 25

Rebound 50s / Team Rank

Grimes / 1

McDonald / 2

Pederson / 3

Terlich / 6

Georgiou / 8

Dunn / 9 (understandable as often designated kicker and sometimes plays forward)

The OP is on the money.

This club hasn't had a match winner or 2 since Alan Jakovich and Gazza were running around sticking it up the opposition and that's an eternity ago.

There's no speed, no silky skills and no power in a marking contests, other than Dawesy. We have an amazing mid, in terms of grunt and see ball get ball with the Jones boy but not really a match winner as such.

Very few weapons to worry anyone. No wonder so many opposition players, even the rookies, just run off their opponents and spread like mad whenever it looks like they might gain possession.

It's a massive 2 to 3 years in the draft for us... and Roosy must surely be realising the enormity of it all by now. He can't leave in 2015. He'll sign for 2016 for sure now. 2015 is just the beginning of the build of a new look list for mine.

We had our chance to get Dangerfield but we took Morton. The bird has flown.

I thought we took Morton over Cyril?