binman

6 hours ago, Redleg said:

Yes Rhoden’s drop kicks were huge.

Is that a euphemism?

2 hours ago, manny100 said:

With Riv, Bowey, CJ injured and AMW still finding his 'footy feet' we are pretty light on down back.

Big Moose was starring at VFL and will be a good foil for Gawny. Both can run forward.

Jeffo deserves a game showing good VFL form and is mobile enough to play high half forward as well as kick goals.

It's Jeffo time.

31 minutes ago, chook fowler said:

I'm giving up guessing selections.

1 hour ago, godees said:

We have really hit a tipping point with our injuries, especially the small/med backman cluster. Will make it tough to even get close this week. So important to bring intensity from the first bounce.

Yep. Great test of character.

4 minutes ago, Ethan Tremblay said:

Who cares if he’s confident and arrogant, he’ll find balance in time. Try to knock it out of him too early, you’ll lose him.

Noone cares about confidence and arrogance. Good on him.

What worried me when I went and watched him against the Dogs at Whitten Oval was his body language was poor, as was his intensity amd second efforts.

It looked much better against the Box Hill Hawk, and no coincidence he was one of the best thst day.

10 minutes ago, MrFreeze said:

The offensive power of Brisbane is an obvious problem

But they also bring a very tricky control based game style, similar to Essendon. Brisbane will work the ball up the ground with precise kicking, hopefully we have some plans to counter it but I am not too sure.

In the fight game, they say styles make fights. Our contest and movement focused style was usable against Blues, Freo and GC since they were happy to go toe-to-toe and scrap it out with us.

Brisbane's style/system will likely be too match to handle.

Agree,

The lions game plan is more aggressive than the Bombers in that yes, they use lots of short kick mark plays but they usually go forward, and once an opportunity to go quick appears go quick (or long) whereas the Bombers go sideways and back heaps. The lions have the skill to hit those forward 20-30 metres kicks whereas the bombers don't.

The only way to beat the Lins method is to pressure the kicker and press right up on the receiver and either spoil, intercept or at the very least hold them up so they cant quick and/or long.

Much will depend on whether we have the gas in the tank.

2 hours ago, jnrmac said:

This was my reading from afar when he was drafted and comments he made in pre-season.

There's a fine line between confidence, arrogance and respect. My feel is that holding him back a few weeks to 'work on things' will hold him in really good stead.

Go well young man

Spot on.

My use of the word attitude was probably ill advised in this context as it might be read as a perjorative - ie XL has a 'bad attitude'.

How you've described it above jnr reflects perfectly what I meant - a young, super competitive fella, used to being one of the best players in every team he lines up with itching to live his dream and get selected in the senoirs and like any uber competitive person frustrated not to have got the call up.

9 minutes ago, layzie said:

Yeah that Crows and Dogs game was a good watch.

I didn't see it but the Dogs comeback against the Lions in opening round, was that a good game?

Yep, that was a good game

20 minutes ago, Maldonboy38 said:

Opening round - fail

Thursday and Friday night fixturing - fail.

Limited highlighting of the WA Derbies and the SA Showdown - fail.

And the AFL would be devastated that none of Blues, Bombers or Tigers will make the finals. It also looks possible that Collingwood might not either. A lot of AFL fixturing emphasizes these teams being promoted and favoured due to $ and crowd size.

A lot of games have been strange - high scoring and free flowing accompanied with a definite reduction in skills.

I am now going to confess something that I hope does not earn me Demonland suspension - I might actually be hoping Carlton win tonight...

I reckon the Blues will win as their weakness is their leg speed and ability to spread defensively, particularly as the games goes on.

The Pies are also dead slow running wise, and are not playing fast, instead using lots of the sort of chip kicks that the bombers used against us, which both mitigates their weaknesses and helps them defend (eg the bombers had an extra in defence, meaning when we did finally get the ball of them and go forward they had an outnumber, which was no doubt a big factor why we couldn't score from our back half the way we have done in other games).

Short version - the Pies won't exploit the Blues weaknesses and will do well to match their key strengths, their contest, clearance and stoppage work. And i suspect the likely wet weather will suit the blues given their strength in the contest.

And whilst the Blus are under the pump, like us last year they are playing better than the result suggest - again like us they are running out puff late in games. Conversely the Pies form is flattered by the results - thy don't look like a team that made prelim last year.

The 2.40 for a Blues win looks great value, with the safer bet being they make their 8 point line.

3 minutes ago, GawnOfTheDead said:

Awful mate.

Most games have been shocking to watch as well.

Feels very one sided this year so far.

So many rubbish games, including most of the Gather round games (not helped by the weather of course, but still).

For neutrals, i can only think of two great games this season - for the drama, our comeback win against the blues (but not a great game skill wise) and the Cats hawks Easter Monday game.

I might be missing some, but geez that's a pretty poor return for box office games after 5 rounds and OR.

Finally, a semi decent round of footy. Nine games, most competitive.

How the AFL could have cocked this season's fixturing up so woefully is beyond me.

On 14/04/2026 at 20:46, Dee*ceiving said:

We couldn't and / or wouldn't run far enough, fast enough for long enough.

It was clear to see our tanks were empty not long into the third qtr. In fact we were probably consuming reserve fuel in red time of the second.

It's gonna happen to a young team, playing a taxing game plan. Melk being on one leg 5 minutes in didn't help.

And we lost Salem early too. Two down can't help with the total number of clicks the team has to run.

51 minutes ago, Petal said:

I assume (hope) he's been working on these things too and deserves the call up but I cant help but feel he's come in out of necessity.

No Salem, Bowey, Rivers, CJ and possibly XL now too. We're looking a bit bare for medium backs who can use the ball.

Would love to see XT go out and really play to his strengths. Take the game on, generate that speed off the backline. I'm sure Kingy will be backing him in.

Good call.

You're spot on, we could use the burst of energy XT will bring - straight swap for Salo you'd think; high half back kicking inside 50.

I fear we'll struggle big time defensively against the Lions - hardly a big call their talent and skill level.

Much will depend on our intensity and capacity to press up on their kickers and receivers and pur them under pressur. Any hint of last weeks 'fatigue' and they'll cut us up.

5 minutes ago, Demonland said:

That's awesome- on two levels.

One, who doesn't love it when a new draftee debuts?

Two, it's clear from comments made by King that XT had some things to work on, and I suspect attitude was one such thing.

If King is picking him I assume XT has worked on those things to King's satisfaction.

XT's leg speed won't hurt either.

4 hours ago, Demongirl35 said:

Max Gawn did say yesterday that Max Heath could definitely play this weekend because of the 5 day break between this game and the Tigers so the club are thinking about it

Thanks, that's an interesting consideration - I hadn't clicked we only had a five day break into the Tiger's game.

I think playing both Heath and Max against tge lions would decrease our chances of beating them.

I'd suggest if they pick Heath to maximise how fresh Maxy is for the Tiger's game they are prioritising the Tiger's game. Which wouldn't surprise me as it is our biggest game of the home and away season and Guerra has already shown he wants to maximise such opportunities from a promotional perspective.

If they are thinking that I'd rather they rest Maxy and play Heath as the number one ruck - but can't really see them doing so.

2 hours ago, Demons11 said:

💯 he will also cover the ruck for 20-25% of the game. He has been best on ground, 3 weeks straight. The others haven’t.

The issue is not his form, the issue is that he cannot cover the ground at speed or do the end to end running for the whole match that Kings' game plan demands.

You might argue that nor did Melksham and he was still selected. Which would be a good point - i was amazed he was selected against the Suns, and proven wrong. But the chickens came home to roost against the Bombers when he might as well not have played.

Every player has to run north of 10kms a game, and mostly at a good clip too, to do the sort of offensive and defensive running the game plan demands. With Salem out early in the game, and Melk slow to begin, and then injured we basically played two down for the match.

Add Tmac's lack of leg speed. and we were behind the 8 ball all match in terms of being able to defend (hence our struggles in stopping them chip the ball around - a strategy obviously designed to exploit our lack of run) or create overlap on offence (hence our woeful score from the back half).

Heath might play with Max at some stage this season, but i would suggest probably not until the back third of the season.

My guess is as soon as Luker is 100% good to go he comes in and plays as a key forward and chop out ruck.

3 minutes ago, Dee Boys said:

To learn his trade under Max and hopefully eventually take over from him.

Snap

7 hours ago, picket fence said:

Why did we recruit him to play magoos??

Yes, at least for the short term.

You do know Max is likely to retire at some point don't you?

And that our succession planning involves Heath becoming the number one ruck?

On 12/04/2026 at 13:05, Cranky Franky said:

Think you are being excessively generous to include Sparrow and Lever in the best players.

I'll give you lever, but Sparrow was our 5th highest rated player

Player Ratings

2 hours ago, picket fence said:

Jeffo best forward in scratch match, still not enough for you Werridee?? Melksham looked very proppy on Weekend as well!

The first line here picket rather undercuts your call to bring Jeffo in.

I mean a scratch match, a shorttned one at that, between two VFL teams sits somewhere between preseason match play drills and intrac club sim for relevance to senior selection.

That said, I think you'll be proved right.

5 hours ago, MrFreeze said:

Rivers featured in the Casey Demons Instagram, running laps with the boys after a scratch match vs Essendon reserves

Must come back in for Salem IMO

If fit, and assuming there's not other isssues, surely he will. We need some of his physical grunt.

To be honest, when thinking about who would come in I forgot about Riv, in large part because I assumed he was injured.

But he played the Casey scratch match, so hopefully he's OK play on Sunday.

Id go with

Out: Melksham, Salem (assuming he is inured), and Tmac

In: Kentfield (plays forward and second ruck, Petts goes back), Jeffo, Rivers (if fit- AMW if not)

Equity Post Clearance - the only quarter where our pressure was at an acceptable level was the second.

Not surprisingly that was the only quarter we had a positive Post Clearance differential (+12). And the only quarter we outscored them.

Interestingly, we actually stil lost cp that quarter (and were down ball winning equity too) - shows that in that quarter with AFL level intensity we got great scoreboard impact from our possession won Post Clearance.

The second quarter was also by far our best quarter for ball use equity points (+9.7 - next best +3.6).

Our pressure fell away in the second half, there's went way up in the ladt (+22) and our points from ball use collapesed (-13.4 and -13.9).

There's obviously a risk of confusing correlation and causation but I think its reasonable to argue that our ball use is largely dependant on our pressure, contest and intensity - with ball winning equity points being a good measure of these aspects of our game.

1 hour ago, WheeloRatings said:

Melbourne v Essendon (Round 5, 2026)

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20260504

Quarter by Quarter Differential

	1	2	3	4
Disposals	-18	+3	-33	-61
Contested Possessions	-6	-1	-13	-7
Uncontested Possessions	-18	-2	-21	-58
Marks	-16	+2	-16	-31
Total Clearances	+5	-	-8	-5
Inside 50s	-	-4	+5	-3
Marks Inside 50	-1	+3	-	-4
Shots At Goal	-3	+3	-4	-4
Tackles	-3	+4	+5	+3
xScore	-6.3	+5.6	-15.9	-16.3
xChainScore	-2.3	-0.9	-0.9	-7.4
Equity Pre Clearance	+7.6	-5.6	-11.6	-8.9
Equity Post Clearance	-11.4	+12.7	-16.7	-15.6
Equity Possession	-11.5	-2.4	-11.0	-8.0
Equity Ball Use	+3.6	+9.7	-13.4	-13.9

Pressure

Team pressure

Quarter	For	Agn	Diff
1	159	161	-2
2	189	168	+21
3	168	163	+5
4	171	199	-28
Match	171	171	0

Source: Herald Sun

Most Pressure Points

Note: pressure points are the weighed sum of pressure acts. Physical pressure acts are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2. ( https://www.championdata.com/glossary/afl/ )

Player	Pressure Acts	Pressure Points	Season Average
Tom Sparrow	24	62	52.8
Kysaiah Pickett	21	54	46.6
Jack Steele	21	50	55.8
Caleb Windsor	20	45	46.0
Xavier Lindsay	17	35	25.0
Jai Culley	17	34	30.0
Blake Howes	10	32	24.0
Harry Sharp	16	31	34.4
Bayley Fritsch	13	31	16.2
Harvey Langford	11	28	22.6
Kade Chandler	13	27	44.2
Harrison Petty	12	26	23.0
Tom McDonald	13	24	14.0
Daniel Turner	9	23	19.2
Ed Langdon	9	21	22.8
Christian Salem	9	21	22.6
Jake Lever	7	18	15.8
Koltyn Tholstrup	8	16	22.8
Jacob van Rooyen	9	16	16.6
Max Gawn	7	16	16.4
Latrelle Pickett	6	13	14.6
Jake Melksham	5	10	9.5
Brody Mihocek	4	8	15.2

Source: Herald Sun

Thanks @WheeloRatings

The quarter by quarter stats are fascinating.

Rather than just looking at contested possessions and Clearancs as the measure I'm increasingly looking at a combo of cp and ball winning equity points to get a sense of how good our contest work was.

And I don't even bother looking at disposal or kicking efficiency as a measure of our skill level. I just look at ball use Equity points.

Both tell a tale in this match, particularly when you look at the quarter by quarter trends - particularly ball use, which collapsed relative to them from half time.

That said I was wondering if it's possible to include clangers in your weekly data - our clangers were off the charts yesterday and I reckon clangers are a good measure of where our kicking, intensity and even fatigue us at.

46 minutes ago, Hellaintabadplacetobe said:

If you're still married she's a keeper Bin....

And clever - she's leveraged her position of strength very cannily.

My day looks very different tommorow, and will involve full clean of her car, gardening and my most dreaded of chores - cleaning the #$%$#$% windows inside and out (for weeks afterwards sunlight mocks me highlighted all the smudges I've somehow missed).

By the by, in the as live Masters Jason Day made birdie at 9 to go 5 under and equal second.

45 minutes ago, Hellaintabadplacetobe said:

If you're still married she's a keeper Bin....

32 minutes ago, rpfc said:

‘Goodwin advocated for the same player moves a year earlier’

That’s quite a counter factual parallel universe where Goodwin’s attempts at a new game plan are far more successful in 2025…

I'm not suggesting Goody behind the Swans change to their game plan to but it's interesting their hyper attacking style and long forward handball (#1 for metres gained by hand) coincides with goody joining them as director of coaching and performance.

5 minutes ago, Adam The God said:

4. The board.

   That's who I'd put my money on.

That's where the buck stops. Always