binman

1 hour ago, demon36 said:

Once again we killed the clock with 2 minutes to go beautifully.

Nice coaching Kingy.

Good call.

1 hour ago, Sydee said:

Sadly, have to agree - Taylor needs to build some confidence and get used to playing against senior bodies imo. He looks like a kid that has been used to being physically strong in the junior ranks but has struggled to adjust to playing against bigger opponents - he will get there I'm sure but no need to rush it

Adams has been very disappointing he seems likely and then just seems to be easily worked off the ball or out positioned by his opponent - I fear for what might happen if he plays against the tall Suns forwards - King and Read kicked 11 b/w them against the Tigers and would be licking their chops I think at the thought of a Jed Adams match up. I can't work out if Adams is simply not strong enough, his technique/positioning is poor - or both

I'm not sure of Adam's contract status, but if he is out of contract at season's end i'd be very surprised if he gets another

1 hour ago, Deespicable said:

Trac may be missing his chance to catch up with the boys but Gold Coast has been awesome thus far with their pace off the back and their power through the middle on top of the King and Read show. Thankfully Humphreys is also out so that will help us stay in the contest.

I reckon the Suns might bring in a third tall - Walter or Jamarra - to help cover the loss of goalscoring power that Trac and Humphreys provide.

Either way I know everyone is more interested in our side and I have three players in the gun.

1) Firstly Latrelle - he's now played three games and scored one goal and dropped almost as many marks as he's had disposals. He can run, we all know that, but he is so far off the pace of AFL level it's not funny. I watched him train a bit pre-season and he's freakish, but he needs to be freakish in the weightroom and he needs to work even harder on his ability to stick marks. I don't want to see him in the side again until he's dominating at VFL level. Kingy has to be very careful how he words it so that it doesn't impact Kozzie, but he needs to be told sympathetically.

Good news: If Kingy is worried about losing run, then Moniz is the obvious addition, albeit down back with Lindsay moving up to the wing and Langford being sent to high half-forward.

2) Secondly Jiath - yep I know he's injured anyway but some of his ball movement in the first half had Carlton and Hawthorn fans cheering more than we were cringeing. I'm sure I'm not alone in seeing it and I know I'm not alone in saying it but the excitement of his early standout training sessions has subsided. He may be too flawed now to make it even after a lengthy stint in the VFL, but if he works on his gameplan maybe he will be ready to impact for us.

Good news: We drafted an absolute gun in Xavier Taylor who can play a similar role, albeit with more polish and more ability to intercept. We are now three games into the season and this guy has to play. Just has to.

3) Thirdly Petty - does anyone have stats of the number of stupid free kicks this guy gives away each week or the number of times he slows ball movement down trying to play safe. I loved his effort in the ruck in Rd 1 and I think we all got excited by his 2021 year when he spoiled like his life depended on it, but which senior player is underperforming and has been almost every week. Sure Goody mucked him up by sending him forward but unfortunately he's yet to really become the reliable senior defender that we need and it's time to move him on. The other issue for the Gold Coast game is that he doesn't have enough pace for King or Walter on the lead and we are already playing two slowish talls in T-Mac and Lever. If one of them was injured or out then I'm happy for him to play, but T-Mac saved us time and time again against the Blues and deserves to stay in.

Good news: We have a player in Jed Adams who is the fastest player in the side and showed how that benefits in his only game on Naughton last year. Sure Adams has taken time to develop, he's a laconic WA country boy after all, but he deserves his chance. He will make mistakes, but don't serve up that argument when comparing him to Petty. His time is now.

I also would like to see Max Heath play, especially given his solid pre-season. But I accept that unless the Suns bring back Moyle, I can't see that happening this week. Playing him would stretch their three tall defenders - Collins, Andrew and Ballard - but so far this year we've been keen on a smaller forward set up and Paddy Cross needs another week.

And I haven't forgotten Rivers. He just needs a week in VFL to harness and harden up his midfield game. Sparrow showed what he could do in that area and along with Steele and Tholstrop, we have some real grunt to go with the pace of Kozzie and Windsor. It's up to Trent to get down and dirty, racking up huge numbers in both tackles and disposals. He's certainly good enough, he just needs to add a bit more of the tough streak to his game.

Great post, and you make some great points. A couple of thoughts in response:

• i take your points about Latrelle, but King's game plan is based on running power and simply does not work without players on every line with genuine leg speed, particularly striding speed over distance - and every player needs to have a massive tank.

• For that reason, i can't see Latrelle being dropped anytime soon (meaning he'll almost certainly be dropped this week!).

• I also think Latrelle's the future and we need to get Latrelle to that critical 50 plus games of AFL footy ASAP - i could see them playing him for the first 5 or 6 games then give him chop out and send him back to Casey to work on his craft

• Based on what i saw against the dogs in the VFL game i'd be very surprised if we see him before, at a minimum, round 7 or 8 - he's not ready physically and i suspect not mentally either

• Heat aint coming into the ide anytime soon either - i can't see him playing in the same side as Maxy, in large part because of my first point, until perhaps the last few games of the season; and then only to get some AFL games into him

• If AMW is good to go i reckon he' straight swap for CJ this week

2 minutes ago, Nasher said:

I haven’t seen a replay, but I thought the one against Hewitt was clearly an umpire error. The one against Evans was correct - at least from a HTB perspective. There’s an argument he was taken high, but you see heaps of those not get called high.

Yep, agree on both counts.

That said, in the first half we copped some shocking frees against us, and perhaps more significantly, frees not paid - the amount of throws, HTBs and scragging of maxy let go was infuriating.

4 hours ago, inanunda said:

What's gone wrong with Roo? Check the delivery in the first half into the forward line, then he rucked. Can't get the lock of the ice-cream every week.

He rucked well too I reckon

Couldn't go - was away. Just finished watching the replay. Go redleggers!

5 hours ago, Lil_red_fire_engine said:

I wonder with Cross coming in I assume to fill a half forward spot if Culley shifts more into the mid rotation this week.

I think that's exactly what will happen, and I suspect that might be a big factor in both th selection of cross and riv being dropped.

It also mean Koz can have more CBAs

6 hours ago, Rodney (Balls) Grinter said:

Honestly, I'm not surprised Rivers has been dropped. We all know he can definitely play and maybe he was lighting up the track over the summer, but in actual game this year against other opposition (North and Richmond preseason games included), I've been disappointed with how ordinary he's looked.

I'm glad that King has pulled the trigger in Rd 3 rather than waiting until another half a dozen games have gone. I'm sure Riv will respond. I also get the view of @binman that this is also about getting a bit more pace into the side, but if it were just that, then surely there were also others that could have made way as well. I do think this is a bit about sending a message as well.

Yeah, I agree it's unlikely to be pace alone.

Who knows, Riv might have been given a specific role or task he didn't satisfactorily complete, or break a non negotiable team rule.

Or more likely, despite having reseonable disposal numbers, King, like all AFL coaches uses bespoke data and metrics to set KPIs for specific players and inform his assessment of their performance.

One such KPI would almost certainly be pressure, as evidenced by tackles (and pressure acts, one percenters etc)

In other words King perhaps king and/or the coaching panel wanted to get some more pace into the side, needed to drop somone to make that happen and decided riv was that person because he didn't perform to the level required.

31 minutes ago, beelzebub said:

Was only talking with his Aunt earlier today. I even said I hope he gets a block of games.

Now... 😒 hmmm

Kinda feel for the lad. He has improved. He's quite comfortable in the middle. He has footy nouse ,good disposal. I would have thought that might work in his favour under the new regime.

I'm obviously wrong

What he doesn't have, and nor does Rivers, is genuine leg speed.

Watching Cross up close last week, he's quick, and he's also an excellent runner and super fit

King's game plan is built on fitness and leg speed.

I suspect that King wanted to pick the fastest team he could this week to exploit Carlton's lack of leg speed and spread.

We will try, and I think succeed, to run them off their legs.

46 minutes ago, watchtheeyes said:

While I understand the temptation to criticise Sparrow given is apparent lack of possession/impact, I’m also willing to consider that he is doing exactly what is being asked of him in the context of the team.. which maybe Rivers is not

Bingo

1 hour ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

The length of the podcast is never an issue for me - I just play it in chunks and/or at 1.3x speed. I listen to some podcasts that go for hours so this one is tame by comparison. It's the beauty of the format, no time constraints so you can actually delve into things instead of just surface level analysis. I hate podcasts that wrap up after 25 minutes.

Note to self - get past the 25 minute mark

31 minutes ago, DeeSpencer said:

I think it helps them as Cerra is neither of those things.

Do you mean he doesn't use the ball pretty well and isn't a decent runner who can run and spread defensively (and offensively)?

2 minutes ago, whatwhat say what said:

i love it when @binman and @george_on_the_outer fight - i like to think of @Demonland there watching, thinking 'do i need to put you both on mute?' while they hash out their disagreement

loving the stats file already - if a future one doesn't get to 90 mins i'll be disappointed

A pod for the true believers (aka dees tragics)

33 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Minor bullet dodged.

I know Cerra isn't a world beater but he would've lengthened a midfield that is better than ours and usually bobs up for 23 odd disposals and a goal against us.

In my opinion this game will come down to which team can best mitigate the other team's strengths.

The blues major strengths are winning contest, contested possessions and clearances (ball winning). I can't believe I'm able to say this, but our strengths are ball use, leg speed and our running power and transition the ball quickly from D50.

I reckon Cerra is significant out for them - agree he is no world beater, but he would have helped them mitigate our strengths (and their key weaknesses - their lack of leg speed and running power) because he uses the ball pretty well and is decent runner who can run and spread defensively (and offensively).

44 minutes ago, At the break of Gawn said:

Nic Newman also ruled out which is handy.

I assume Saad will play though.

If we can shut him down, he might crack the Saads.

35 minutes ago, Young Angus said:

Don't mind the interrupting to be honest, I like the "handbags at dawn" vibe I get between George and Binman and the way you aren't all just in furious agreement because that would be boring and I'm sure you're varied opinions on things represent the varied opinions of folks out there listening.

Love the pod, between this and DeeBrief I'm getting a good fix of dees analysis and gotta say I don't care much for win or lose (although god how exciting was it to win that game!!) but I'm just happy to be on this journey this year because who knows where we'll end up, but it feels like we're in good hands.

Looking forward to AMW and big MOOSE coming in too and seeing what they bring to AFL level, not to mention Jeffo. BRING ON THE POD AND BRING ON SUNDAY ARVO FOOTY!!!

(my 4 year old watching the Saints game with me kept yelling out "go petracca" and my wife and I had to tell her "no no don't say that he doesn't play for us anymore")

Thanks YA.

Funny you should note your four-year-old yelling out 'go petracca' because I've been experimenting using Gemini to interrogate the wheeloratings data (my instructions were to ONLY use data from that website).

At this early stage of the experiment, it throws up way, way too many hallucinations to confidently trust or use the data (though i have found it useful to explore themes and as a tool to test and/or challenge my reasoning and hypothesis about various aspects of the game) - perhaps a paid version might be more robust (in questioning why so many obvious errors, the LLM's response was there were issues reading the tables)

One such hallucination, one that felt like being trolled, was in response to a prompt about comparing our player ratings between round one and round two.

According to Gemini our standout player this season has been, drum roll, Christian Petracca with 31 player rating points in round one and 22.3 in round two!

I'm glad Gold Coast are paying his salary.

Thanks for the feedback Demonted, appreciated. In terms of me interrupting, I'm conscious its bad habit i have and i'm working on it.

In terms of tactical analysis that covers all aspect of our performance including offence, defence, contest and transition, and is 100% football focused, you could give my standalone Freo stats file pod a whirl. And as an added bonus i don't interrupt anyone coz it's just me.

It's only the second one, and there won't be another one as ridiculously long or deetailed as i overprepared, (happily) got lost in the numbers and analysis, chose not to watch the time and wanted to cover all the things i had been ruminating on in my head about the game.

I didn't have time to redo it, so it stands as a monument to my obsession about trying to understand game plan, method, tactics and what happened in the game - something that is particularly exciting this year as we have a new coach with a new approach.

Apple Podcasts

15 hours ago, Little Goffy said:

Disco never dies.

Unfortunatley

8 hours ago, DutchDemons said:

Binman: “I’m gonna have a structure. I’m gonna keep it tight. 20-30 minutes is what I’m aiming for”.

Also Binman:

I'm an iconoclast - rules are meant to be broken, especially my own

16 minutes ago, Sydee said:

Not sure how the player rating points are calculated but those numbers surprise me. Where do you see AMW getting a go if not for XL - while I am not convinced Howes is best 22, I do like his height and the fact he is reasonably quick. Similarly, CJ is better than XL aerially and also quicker albeit he is clearly capable of some serious brain explosions

I agree that XT has a way to go which is a little frustrating as I think most supporters thought he would be a starter early this season I guess some youngsters adjust to senior footy quicker than others, but we all need to stay patient

AMW and XL aren't competing for the same spot.

We've lacked a quailty small lockdown defender since Jetts, though as pointed out to me Hibberd essentially played that role too - AMW will likely play that role, and I'm excited for what he'll bring.

Noone really plays that role atm - we use our mids, HHFs, and whatever you call the role/position Langers plays to get back on defence and win contests and ground ball inside D50.

I think XL is minding Bowser's spot, so not sure who AMW replaces.

Ultimately, XL, as he did as a junior, will likely move from the HB into the midfield, possibly when Bowser comes back.

Either way he's not coming out of the ones.

32 minutes ago, Nascent said:

In spite of the stats distorted by our older players we are a fairly young and inexperienced team.

L Pickett: 2 games

Culley: 18 games

Lindsay: 20 games

Tholstrup: 21 games

Langford: 24 Games

Howes: 30 games

Sharp: 36 games

Windsor: 38 games

Turner: 39 games

That's half of a starting 18 and not even counting JvR who is only 22. No doubt one of Jefferson or Kentfield were likely to games early as well and we would presumably look for Taylor and Matthews to debut later in the year.

We would like reliable consistency in performance but you're just not going to get it with that amount of inexperience. This group needs another full season, perhaps even two before we see that.

An excellent point.

A bit was made of the fact that our average age was a tick over Freos.

But the key difference is how many of high end talent are 24 or under and/or played less than 50 games.

30 minutes ago, BLWNBA said:

Matt Jefferson continues to progress through a bone stress injury in his foot.

“He’ll partially integrate into main training this week, with the plan to have him training fully next week,” Griffith said.

“His availability will then be determined by his tolerance to main training.”   

Injury Report | Turner Sidelined

My tolerance to main training was always very low - might explain the very undizzy heights i got to in my junior footy career.

Does anyone know how Disco broke his hand?

1 hour ago, Sydee said:

A team that wants to play long bomb and territory needs to have some taller players that are strong overhead I would have thought. Aside from Max we have nobody that fits that mould forward of centre - JVR sadly was back to his worst concrete hands against Freo (how you can mark the ball confidently one week and then the next drop absolute sodas is remarkable)

It is a pity Kentfield got injured because he did look like a possible tall target inside F50

If we are going to play that way I think Heath needs to play and he and Max can share ruck duties with one resting forward

I agree we lacked run at times which made transition far more difficult, but we also took way too long to decide what we wanted to do when we did win possession

Lindsay looks all at sea in D50 and frankly way off the level required in terms of his ability to compete physically -he is probably lucky that AMW may need another solid hit out to prove he is ready for AFL selection

Maybe, but King has been crystal clear that's the game plan we are running with. Kentfield will help, Brodie too. I can't see Heath coming into the side anytime soon as we simply cant afford to be down a runner (though if they are going to pick him, this week wouldn't be th eworse time to do so given the Blues are dead slow). I suspect their plan was to use Kentfield as the second ruck, so the sooner he's in the better.

I disagree Lindsay looks all at sea as defender, though it feels like I'm on my own on that front. Agree he's a ways off his optimal strength, he's a second year player after all, but I'm not surprised at all Kins is using him down back, and i think will continue to do so (I don't think he's competing with AMW for a spot, more XT - who IS miles off).

He played a big chunk of his junior career, for Gippy power and representative sides, in the exact same role he played this season - half back flanker who pushes up the ground and is key to transition. That included one of his best representative games - an under 17s Future Stars game played on GF day where he was BOG playing as a running half back flanker.

In his final year at Gippy power he predominantly played as a mid (though still went back at times), and that's where he might end up, but as highlighted by draft watchers he was an excellent defender as a junior. So its not as if he doesn't have experience in the role, and obviously King rates him as defender given that where he has selected him two weeks in a row.

Watching live, and then again the replay, i thought he was excellent against the Saints - i was amazed he seemed to get no love on DL. He was our 5th highest rated player for the game and only Steele and Salo had more metres gained (and not by much).

He was not nearly as good against the Dockers, but again i'm amazed at the opprobrium he's received on DL. Sure he was fumbly at times, particularly in the first quarter, and he lost a couple of key one on one contests, but he was far from the only defender to struggle - hardly surprising given the volume of D5O entries (25 in the first quarter - nuts!), the speed it was coming inside D50) and the lack of pressure on their last kick inside 50.

I thought he played OK, but i rate him highly so i was conscious there might be some confirmation bias informing that assessment. So i was pleased to see his player rating supported my assessment - he scored 7.5 rating points, better than 12 of his teammates including other defenders like CJ (4.7 points), Howes (4.6 points) and Petts (-0.7 points). He was also comfortably the highest rated player of our young guns - Langford, Windsor, Kolt and Latrelle.

1 hour ago, chook fowler said:

and dishwashing

Gave that up years ago