binman

Equity Post Clearance - the only quarter where our pressure was at an acceptable level was the second.

Not surprisingly that was the only quarter we had a positive Post Clearance differential (+12). And the only quarter we outscored them.

Interestingly, we actually stil lost cp that quarter (and were down ball winning equity too) - shows that in that quarter with AFL level intensity we got great scoreboard impact from our possession won Post Clearance.

The second quarter was also by far our best quarter for ball use equity points (+9.7 - next best +3.6).

Our pressure fell away in the second half, there's went way up in the ladt (+22) and our points from ball use collapesed (-13.4 and -13.9).

There's obviously a risk of confusing correlation and causation but I think its reasonable to argue that our ball use is largely dependant on our pressure, contest and intensity - with ball winning equity points being a good measure of these aspects of our game.

1 hour ago, WheeloRatings said:

Melbourne v Essendon (Round 5, 2026)

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20260504

Quarter by Quarter Differential

	1	2	3	4
Disposals	-18	+3	-33	-61
Contested Possessions	-6	-1	-13	-7
Uncontested Possessions	-18	-2	-21	-58
Marks	-16	+2	-16	-31
Total Clearances	+5	-	-8	-5
Inside 50s	-	-4	+5	-3
Marks Inside 50	-1	+3	-	-4
Shots At Goal	-3	+3	-4	-4
Tackles	-3	+4	+5	+3
xScore	-6.3	+5.6	-15.9	-16.3
xChainScore	-2.3	-0.9	-0.9	-7.4
Equity Pre Clearance	+7.6	-5.6	-11.6	-8.9
Equity Post Clearance	-11.4	+12.7	-16.7	-15.6
Equity Possession	-11.5	-2.4	-11.0	-8.0
Equity Ball Use	+3.6	+9.7	-13.4	-13.9

Pressure

Team pressure

Quarter	For	Agn	Diff
1	159	161	-2
2	189	168	+21
3	168	163	+5
4	171	199	-28
Match	171	171	0

Source: Herald Sun

Most Pressure Points

Note: pressure points are the weighed sum of pressure acts. Physical pressure acts are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2. ( https://www.championdata.com/glossary/afl/ )

Player	Pressure Acts	Pressure Points	Season Average
Tom Sparrow	24	62	52.8
Kysaiah Pickett	21	54	46.6
Jack Steele	21	50	55.8
Caleb Windsor	20	45	46.0
Xavier Lindsay	17	35	25.0
Jai Culley	17	34	30.0
Blake Howes	10	32	24.0
Harry Sharp	16	31	34.4
Bayley Fritsch	13	31	16.2
Harvey Langford	11	28	22.6
Kade Chandler	13	27	44.2
Harrison Petty	12	26	23.0
Tom McDonald	13	24	14.0
Daniel Turner	9	23	19.2
Ed Langdon	9	21	22.8
Christian Salem	9	21	22.6
Jake Lever	7	18	15.8
Koltyn Tholstrup	8	16	22.8
Jacob van Rooyen	9	16	16.6
Max Gawn	7	16	16.4
Latrelle Pickett	6	13	14.6
Jake Melksham	5	10	9.5
Brody Mihocek	4	8	15.2

Source: Herald Sun

Thanks @WheeloRatings

The quarter by quarter stats are fascinating.

Rather than just looking at contested possessions and Clearancs as the measure I'm increasingly looking at a combo of cp and ball winning equity points to get a sense of how good our contest work was.

And I don't even bother looking at disposal or kicking efficiency as a measure of our skill level. I just look at ball use Equity points.

Both tell a tale in this match, particularly when you look at the quarter by quarter trends - particularly ball use, which collapsed relative to them from half time.

That said I was wondering if it's possible to include clangers in your weekly data - our clangers were off the charts yesterday and I reckon clangers are a good measure of where our kicking, intensity and even fatigue us at.

46 minutes ago, Hellaintabadplacetobe said:

If you're still married she's a keeper Bin....

And clever - she's leveraged her position of strength very cannily.

My day looks very different tommorow, and will involve full clean of her car, gardening and my most dreaded of chores - cleaning the #$%$#$% windows inside and out (for weeks afterwards sunlight mocks me highlighted all the smudges I've somehow missed).

By the by, in the as live Masters Jason Day made birdie at 9 to go 5 under and equal second.

45 minutes ago, Hellaintabadplacetobe said:

If you're still married she's a keeper Bin....

32 minutes ago, rpfc said:

‘Goodwin advocated for the same player moves a year earlier’

That’s quite a counter factual parallel universe where Goodwin’s attempts at a new game plan are far more successful in 2025…

I'm not suggesting Goody behind the Swans change to their game plan to but it's interesting their hyper attacking style and long forward handball (#1 for metres gained by hand) coincides with goody joining them as director of coaching and performance.

5 minutes ago, Adam The God said:

4. The board.

   That's who I'd put my money on.

That's where the buck stops. Always

39 minutes ago, Winter Dan said:

Nice to have a Saturday game!

Great day of sports watching

Masters as live now thru to 1pm game time.

Get my bets on the ponies.

Races kick off 11:45 am

Game 1:10pm

Races replays during the breaks, more after the game finished

Post game, 3 group ones in Sydney, includng the excitement machine Pride of Jenni enjoying the trailing wind - can they catch her (I hope not).

And Australia's best horse, the u defeated Autumn Glow gunning for her 12th straight win in the Queen Elizabeth, which this year is stronger than last year's Cox Plate.

Then watch the replay of our victory over the bombers.

Gold.

23 minutes ago, Pennant St Dee said:

Hopefully tomorrow evening

....with four of our recent first round draft picks - Langford, XL, Kolt and Latrelle - going bananas.

Just now, Into The Mystic said:

Hey guys who performs the alternative version of Grand Old Flag at the end or last week's pod?

It's awesome isn't it - it's by one of Australia's great musicians, ans hige dees fan, David Bridie (Not Drowning Waving, My Friend the Chocolate Cake, terrific solo stuff).

It's a recording of a live performance from many years ago on, I think ABC's spicks and specks

Note: well answer that question again on the show, just coz

1 minute ago, layzie said:

If you need any help or general advice with the recording, mixing, exporting and general putting togethering don't hesitate to reach out.

I'm very used to the old school method of podcast producing, not up with Andy's whiz bang Zencaster stuff 😜

Thanks Layzie, much appreciated.

I rhink we'll be right - we're actually going to use Andy's zencaster account, and then he can access directly overseas - an elegant solution.

And he's taken some equipment with him to record the intros and edit properly, which is amazing. I can only assume he has a very understanding family!

By the by, that track is is from one of my top 5 Australian albums The Lost Dub Tapes, released in 2004 by the mysterious Secret Masters.

Brilliant album. Brilliantly produced. And sounds absolutely brilliant.

11 hours ago, whatwhat say what said:

just remember to hit the 'record' button!

1 hour ago, Grapeviney said:

I'm torn about tonight's match.

Sure, it would be nice to see the Blues blow a big lead again.

But I'm also keen to see them get thumped from the first bounce, and suffer a humiliating 30-goal loss that sees Voss sacked and many on their list give the game away for good, prompting the club to go into receivership and be banished from the league.

What scenario would you prefer?

10 goals up at half time

Lose by 17 goals.

G'day loyal Demonland Podcast listeners. As you know Andy is away and will miss three games in total - last week and the bombers and lions games.

The process for recording the show, which normally goes out live, is a bit complex and above George and my pay grade - Andy records and mixes the show with a combo of recording software and analog mixing desk, with George and i joining via video link.

The plan was for me to do the Suns (tick), Bombers and Lions games solo whilst Andy is away, with me recording a basic sound file, which i send to Andy who adds the intro and outro and then uploads to the various platforms (which by the by @Demonland is above and beyond given you are on holidays - much respect).

However @george_on_the_outer and have decided to harden up and find a way to record the next two Demonland pods together. I mean how hard can it be?

Why am i telling you this?

Because George and i are going to record the show Sunday morning, which means there'll be bugger all time post game to put questions in this thread, so we thought we'd open it up now for anyone who wants to ask a question for the dees v bombers pod ahead of the game (about the game or more general).

We have some questions already that were posted after i recorded last weeks show, which are relevant for this game too, so i'll kick off this thread with those questions:

@GS_1905 asks:

Haven't jumped into the podcast thread for a while so apologies if this has been asked already but im just a little worried about the development of our young brigade: Windsor, XL, Langford and Tholstrup in particular. Now i know these kids are 2/3 year players and we must temper expectations. But aside from becoming (obviously) solid footballers, are any of these kids likely to be future stars of the comp? If so, who is most likely to break into the top 20 afl players in the future?

@buck_nekkid asks:

What does our best forward line look like? Based on facts? Based on best guess? By the end of the year?

Smaller group used in the centre bounce setup - are we getting to our ‘pure mids’, and the choice who went through was specific (tactical?) to GCS. For example Kolt had zero attendances - so no tags this week.

@Bowserpower asks:

What are the main differences with our forward line this year?

@binman asks:

George have you adjusted your thinking/expectations post our magnificent wins against a benchmark team in the Suns, and starting the season 3-1?

George, speaking of our magnificent wins against the Suns, how pumped were you? Highlights from that game ?

43 minutes ago, Red But Mostly Blue said:

Are we having loading issues... ?? 🤣🤣🤣

(I'll show myself out)

Too early in the season. Wont be able to open Demonland come our bye - which by the by is bizarrely not till round 16!

26 minutes ago, Colm said:

I’m a big Langford fan and have been since from early in his draft year.

I had a punt on him for goals and disposals in the last game as I thought he was coming into good form.

I was a little disappointed with his running back in the last quarter and was surprised to hear @binman say he was in our top 3 defensive runners. I know the knocks on him have been pace but he had a good 2km time trail in his draft year and I thought 2 way running would have been better.

So I watched the second half again and just focused on him. I was clearly a bit biased by my punt but I do think he’s got a bit of work to do in his tank.He went at 67% game time and dovetails very well with Culley. He seems to be able to find an extra bit running forward.

I’d love to see some of his other GPS number to see if I’m wrong. It looked like he was under done or had a niggle in first couple of rounds so perhaps he’s still getting to full fitness.

I actually thought of the Oilly Dempsey comparison when I was watching the second half replay. Worst case he stays in the position he’s in and is a weapon at wing/forward.

Someone told me, and i'm not sure if it's true (though it would make sense given King was the Cats midfield coach - or at least i think he was), that King was behind how the Cats use Dempsey - ie as a tall winger that aims to stretch opposition defences and be a legitimate forward marking option, often pushing all the way to the goal square (a crazy % of his goals have been from the goal square).

Tracks with how King is using Langford and Culley.

1 hour ago, GawnOfTheDead said:

Bombers fans up and about on SEN. they believe they’ll win sunday

Who are they playing on Sunday?

49 minutes ago, Roost it far said:

If I was a gambling man I’d put everything I had on us to beat Essendon knowing that it was a certainty.

I'm a gambling man and i'd seriously recommend NEVER putting everting you have on the dees to win ANY game!

1 minute ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

In a vacuum I reckon he’s been pretty good for GWS this year.

I don’t have the stats to back it up but the 2026 version looks better than the 2025 version and a lot better than the unfit 2024 edition.

However (right now) I don’t regret moving him on and getting in Steele. Not for a millisecond.

Leaving aside all the fugazi - and also the leadership Steele brings to the club (not even Claz'z biggest fans would argue he added anything at all in that space) and how Claz has performed so far this year (id argue he played pretty well for us last year too) there is zero doubt in my mind Steele is adding way more from playing perspective than Clazz did since before he did his hammy.

Huge credit must go to the club for getting Steele in. Let's see how it plays out this season, but on the small sample thus far i reckon Steel could well become one of the best trades in the last 25 years, particularly considering we got him for basically nothing.

By the by, i reckon Lever, May and Langdon are the three best trades we've made this century.

Just now, jnrmac said:

We were favourites against Carlton

We were until a few hours before game time - they Blues actually started favs (just) in the end.

But blimey, i can't recall the lasts time we started as short as we are against the Bombers - ATM we're 1.24 to win this game, and the bombers are 4.10 (from memory we were very short against the Roos early last season, but I'm pretty sure we weren't as short as 1.24)

47 minutes ago, In Harmes Way said:

Sam Draper has given me nightmares over the last couple of years in this game. I'm glad he's not playing (although it only delays the nightmare one week to the Brisbane game)

He'll probably still kick 6 against us this week

2 minutes ago, jnrmac said:

We took 19 marks i50 and laid 14 tackles i50

That represents a stark difference to previous years

Absolutely, i agree (though less about the tackles inside 50 -we have long been good at that, though not so much last year which was big factor in our 'inefficiency' - ie unlike this year were not failing to trap it inside 50 when the ball hit the deck inside 50)

5 minutes ago, mfcrox said:

He is perfectly suited to the style of footy King wants to play. I read a quote from Guerra (I think) somewhere that during the final interviews for the coaching job, King was asked how he sees this team playing and it's potential... King asked to see GPS data/testing data in response, and I'm sure his eyes would have lit up when he saw what Sharp's numbers were. He is built for this game-style, and it shows in his performance to date.

According to this 2023 article, at the 2020 draft combine Sharp's 2km time trial time was 5:28 seconds - 20 secoinds faster than the next best result (it's not clear if that means all time or in the 2020 combine).

That's serious time for 17 year old.

34 minutes ago, Gorgoroth said:

Or maybe astute coaching would have been to put in players who could hit targets so we didnt have to bomb to medium fwds who got outmarked.

As i note above - we are bombing it to our forwards (medium and tall) more this year than last season.

Don't believe me?

Watch the all the goals video from the Suns game.

Of the 16 goals we kicked, only five involved hitting up a target inside 50 (and one of them was a shank kick by Sharp to Melky):

• Koz out of the centre square spotting up Melksham

• Lever's beautiful pass to Langford

• Checkers hitting Sharp wit his left foot after inexplicably being called to play on

• Latrelle nailing a beautiful pass to Roo (the only pure goal we got from a leading forward that got free of their defender - Langford's lead and mark was under huge pressure)

• Sharp hitting Melksham with a shank kick

With the exception of the 50 to XL, the rest all involved either long bombs or shanks (eg Steele's scratchy kick from a centre clearance that checkers read best and marked) that were either marked (Checkers x 2, Maxy and Melk's screamer) or we won the resulting ground ball (eg our first goal - Salo's snap, Melksham's gather and handpass to Koz and Latrelle's goal after the cleaver kick off the ground by Koz)

RD 4 | All the Goals

2 hours ago, Rednblueriseing said:

Both Tracc and Claz are and will be legends of the Dees.. and us supporters love what thy were apart of at our club.

But both could not hit targets going inside 50 and along with Viney we were worst in the comp. That issue alone was never resolved because our game plan was bomb it in and keep it there. It work to a point but made us work twice as hard as the opposition for our goals.

Agree with above.

However, on the last point our game plan last year involved much less bombing it long inside 50 than in previous seasons - i would posit we are kicking long to a contest inside 50 more this season than last.

In fact, unless there is clear, free target or one on one contest ahead of the ball (which is created by fast ball movement) most teams, particularly from centre clearances (because there's rarely a free player or one on one contests) are bombing it long inside 50 this season. Territory is still king.

In fact, one of the key reasons why Oliver, and particularly Tracc (who i think was dead last for retention of kicks in inside 50 last season) were so woeful going inside 50 last year was we trying to bomb it in less but neither have the skill to hit those 20-30 metre kicks to a leading or free player or weight a kick to the forwards advantage.

The other relevant aspect of the retention of kicks inside 50 and marks from kicks, is of course it's partly related to the quality of the forwards, particularly key forwards who can take pack marks, the quality of the crumbers and things like structure and system. And course forward 50 pressure is a big factor in terms of retention inside 50.

Jessie Hogan is struggling this season and not clunking his marks like he was in 2024. And atm they don't really have any other decent marking options up forward. That's no doubt a big factor in Callaghan and Claz's low % of kicks inside 50 being marked. Which is not to say both are not poor kicks - Claz certainly is.

Last season, we really only had JVR as a pack marking option inside 50 and he struggled all season. This season we have Checkers and Roo, and on the weekend, they moved Petts forward to put another tall making option down there.

Think of that terrific pack mark Checkers took at the top of the goal square on Sunday. I forget who kicked it in, but it was a bog-standard kick it long to the top of the goal square kick - the very type of kick people bemoaned us doing under Goody.

Checkers marked it and the player kicking it inside 50 would have been credited with both the kick being retained and marked. We don't mark that kick last season.

All that said, i agree we are not missing Tracc and Claz' kicking skills - or their dire lack of foot speed.

41 minutes ago, Demons11 said:

He has definitely surprised me.

I thought he was no chance of making it but I think his season has been brilliant. His link up play abs hitting the scoreboard has been invaluable

Everything moves so fast these days. Forget the 24-hour news cycle, it's now measured in minutes.

Perhasp that's why Sharpie has gone thru the four stages of Nibbla so quickly:

1. Cautious optimism player x will be decent addition to the list

2. Loss of confidence player x will be decent addition to the list

3. Grudging acceptance player x has been a decent addition to the list

4. Player x is critical element of the team

1 hour ago, Demon Jack said:

First Crack just showed some great footage of Langford's off the ball running from the Sun's game.

There was one instance where he ran out flat chat from one end of the ground to the other to provide an option forward. I think it was when Chandler marked, played on and hit the post.

They compared his current role with Ollie Dempsey from the Cats, especially with his marking ability.

I always check the tracker on the AFL app as it's the only publicly available GPS data I can find, or any data for that matter, that gives me any sense of our running power and fitness (though i reckon pressure ratings are a reasonable proxy - ours, like Calton's this year routinely was our lowest in the last quarter last season, which i think reflected out lack of fitness).

We had the top 5 players for average speed in defence against the suns (confusing name - defence in this context means when the opponent has the ball, not in the defensive half).

That's a great indication of our all team defensive gut running and spread - critical for defending turnover generally, and in this match of how we denied them space and put pressure on players receiving handballs.

Nor surprisingly Langers had the highest average speed when the Suns had the ball (8.7 kms per hour) and Sharp equal second (8.5 kms per hour).

But I have to say i was super suprised who was equal second - Harvey.

By the by, the xext two were Kolt (8.4) and Laurie (8.3)