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Demon17

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Posts posted by Demon17

    The Top 8 at the end of Round 10 is the same as it is now, with 4 teams in the same position, and the other 4 only 1 spot away between then and now.

    This has been a common pattern, and despite all the to-ing and fro-ing of the last few possies this season, currently remains true again for 2021.

    So lets assume finally that after Round 23 even the positons are the same, has the Dees finishing 2nd. behindsDogs, and ahead of Cats.

    Fanciful maybe, but its what I'm now going with this week.

    30 minutes ago, dazzledavey36 said:

     

    I've also been hard on Melkshams defensive game, but if he is offering us quality ball use going inside 50 then I'm taking that with both hand.

     

    Well said dd.

    Quality ball use and goal sense and kicking is the number 1 fix needed. Its killing us more than anything else.

    The only quick fix with 4 games left is now melksham and jones in now . Settle the team and hope for the best.

    • Like 2

    1 hour ago, At the break of Gawn said:

    Goody never makes too many changes, but there’s no way Jackson can keep his spot. He has been so ineffectual lately it’s not funny.

    I think it’ll be

    Out: Jackson, Jordan

    In: Weideman, Sparrow.

     

    Not the worst idea.

    Keeping bbb also mandatory. He clunked a couple and kicked a long angled goal. The only one currently with that ability. More games he will improve. 

    • Like 2

    1 hour ago, Rab D Nesbitt said:

    Sure I'm disappointed but looking at the game in isolation there was very little between the two sides on the night. 

    . After eighteen games no side has been able to put us away and I'm still confident that we can go all the way if we can get the double chance. I'm also not keen to chop and change the side. 

    Very much appreciated Rab.  This is the sort of post I needed this morning.

    But also a point well made that doesn't get much airtime. We have weakness and so does every other team.  The Dees will go into the next round against the Dogs, in finals hopefully, knowing the Dogs are beatable and we have learned a few things from last night.

    • Like 1

    13 hours ago, 1964_2 said:

    Pretty simple.

    - which team is undefeated against top 8, and which team has struggled in most of their big contender games this year

    - who convincingly won the last game the 2 teams played in a strong 4 qtr performance 

    - Who has no injuries, and who lost one of their best players to a Covid isolation this week 

    - who has responded very strongly after their 3 losses this year, and who just got over the line to a weak bottom 8 team, that they very easily could have lost 


    the odds are pretty spot on IMO

    I feel much better. Thanks 1964

    • Like 2

    49 minutes ago, buck_nekkid said:

    Hi CHF, happy to step in.

    Our result against the hawks - advantage them

    Midfield chaos thanks to Covid - advantage us

    MCG - advantage us

    no crowd - advantage them.

    Yo-yo result - advantage Sportsbet.

    This is an interesting game and the outcome depends on how we show up.  If we keep the ball in front of us, dont get sucked into the contest and win the contested ball, we win.  If we let them win the middle and fail to stop their throws/pinball out of the contest, we will get done.

    We need to see increases in accuracy in front of goal, and lifts across the park in terms of ball handling.

    This is not a make or break game, but it is important for how we see ourselves.  Are we (cough) premiership material or are we falling over?  A chance for the 2021 deMons to show up.

    Hope Brown gets a few, and we are cleaner by hand and foot.  Dees by 25.

    Dees are 1.84 on sportsbet. Dogs 2.00.

    I'm not a gambler so how on earth can this be explained? 

    6 hours ago, BDA said:

    I'm quite confident about this game despite our recent average form.

    . Only thing that will thwart our chances is poor goal kicking. Not an outside possibility based on recent form.

    Last time Tmac and Fritsch kicked 6.2 between them and we kicked 13 goals  9 behinds. The kicked 8  gls 11 behinds.

    Replicate that accuracy and wer'e halfway there.

    After 1/4 time Dees kicked 7   - 4  to Dogs 6  -  9. Again , repeat this and we win.

    (After wasting the first 1/4 with 6 - 5.  to 2 - 2.)

    1 hour ago, hardtack said:

    If you’re implying that 3rd and 4th will be occupied by Brisbane and Port in whatever order, then I’d prefer we finish 2nd in order to avoid the added (mental) pressure of the expectations that go with being minor premiers.

    Isn't it just outrageous that port is even discussed as a possible top 4 . Or even finalist for that matter. Huge for whomevet meets them in week 1.

    • Like 1

    49 minutes ago, Dee Viney Intervention said:

    Tall poppy syndrome here. Bailey has immaculate hair. Get stuffed Dermie you closet ranga!!!

    I'm awarding this as "post of the day". 

    Brilliant and accurate insight Dee viney. Sniping itself lack courage imo and dermie was a great exponent. 

    5 hours ago, jnrmac said:

    Just checked some stats

    We are last for tackles in the whole comp

    We are 16th in total clearances

    That puts huge pressure on our defence to hold the fort. Its not sustainable.

    David King on SEN yesterday made exactly this point. Fix it and wer'e in with a chance but he believed the team strategy is designed to  allow the losses in clearances in the hope that the excellent defence will clean up and maintain possession to attack.

    He thinks its flawed but fixable.

     

    2 hours ago, Doug Reemer said:

    Did we not lose Neitz after Rd18?

    No, we only lost him for final Round 22, and the First Final.

    In rounds 19, 20, 21 he had less than 10 disposals each game and best scoree was 2gls 4 points in Round 19.

    Round 21 he had 8 disposals for 4 behinds.

    His last game for the season was our last win in Round 18, against the hawks.  Neitz had 11 disposlas for 5 gls 3 behinds.

    last Home and away game in Round 22, after 1/2 time the eagles had 18 scoring shots to our 6.

    Wheels had really fallen off by then I reckon.

    I trust current leadership on the ground way more than I would trust the 2004 version. So they may have a story to tell - don't be like us!

    • Like 1

    2 hours ago, Supermercado said:

    Worst thing about 2004 is that if we'd won that Elimination Final I reckon it would have given us a new lease of life. In an even season that could have carried us to a flag.

    Not so fast Super. You may be right but...

    I reckon the worst thing was losing to 3 bottom sides in the last 4 weeks of the season and costing us a double chance. 

    Not to mention the disaster that was the start of the first final when the game was lost in 20 minutes , despite the heroic comeback.

    Talk about flaky. 

    13 hours ago, titan_uranus said:

    I wouldn't have expected us to be favourites in the betting market but:

    1. The game is at the MCG, where the Dogs are 1-1 this year, with a run of the mill win vs Collingwood and then a second-half trouncing by Richmond, and they haven't played there since Round 7
    2. The Dogs aren't really in form - they're 4-3 over their last 7 games (we're 4-2-1 by comparison) and the only one of their 4 wins in that stretch of note was vs West Coast, who aren't in any form to speak of themselves (and there was no crowd at their game in Perth) - remaining wins were vs Fremantle, North and Gold Coast
    3. Each of the last two weeks they've only generated 20 scoring shots (equal third-lowest they've had all year) and each of the last three weeks they've conceded 24 scoring shots (second-worst they've had all year)
    4. They scored 100+ points in 6 of their first 10 games but since Round 11 (losing to us) they've only reached 100 once
    5. We've already comprehensively outplayed them once this year

    Thanks for this analysis . Always helpful to have the facts rather than necessarily mfcss.

    Goodwin unlocked the dogs last time which has since been emulated by othet coaches. Ignore media. They only have attention spans of last 48 hours.

    • Like 2

    28 minutes ago, Rusty Nails said:

    I posted this in PF's other accuracy thread.  I'm not sure if this is all shots at goal or just set shots.  Probably all.  50/50 ends with Langdon.  Not really enough shots from Sparrow and def not enough from Mitch to really gauge how they fair at this stage....

    MFC Goal Accuracy % Rankings - Season 2021 up to and including Round 18

    Player SG GAC % 2021 Rank
    B Fritsch 56 62.5 1
    T Sparrow 7 57.1 2
    L Jackson 16 56.3 3
    T McDonald 51 54.9 4
    M Brown 4 50.0 5
    E Langdon 22 50.0 5
    J Harmes 11 45.5 7
    K Pickett 59 44.1 8
    A Neil-Bullen 25 44.0 9
    B Brown 14 42.9 10
    J Jordan 15 40.0 11
    J Hunt 5 40.0 11
    C Petracca 49 38.8 13
    J Melksham 13 38.5 14
    C Spargo 28 35.7 15
    T Rivers 3 33.3 16
    M Gawn 24 33.3 16
    J Viney 6 33.3 16
    C Salem 6 33.3 16
    S Weideman 10 30.0 20
    N Jones 7 28.6 21
    C Oliver 22 27.3 22
    A Brayshaw 13 15.4 23

    SG = Shots at Goal   GAC = Goal Accuracy %

    I nominate this as the most depressing post of the year/month/week. Take your pick.

    For professional footballers and 'stars' of the game kicking at between 15% to 38.8% (Oliver, Brayshaw, Petracca, Gawn) the team's engine room should be ashamed.  Costing us Top 4 this year. And May/Lever keeping us in the Eight luckily.

    I forgive Spargo because he has a football IQ and is responsible for setting up numerous gettable chances.

    • Vomit 1

    22 hours ago, Kent said:

    Im wit the good doctor after last night

    5th for me unfortuantely

    Iv'e now changed my mind to your post. I think worthy top 4 on form are Dogs, cats, swans.  

    Second tier for the 4th spot are Port, Lions(probable top 4 now.) and Dees.

    With the run  home and losses to lowly sides , I think 5th is about right for the season perfomance.

    10 hours ago, Fork 'em said:

    I remember watching Sydney go through their pre-match warm up a few years ago.
    Noticed the intensity and professionalism they did it with.
    Had a look at our blokes who were casually trotting around having a few shots at goal.
    When the the game started Sydney played liked they warmed up and smashed us from the bounce.

    Insighful post Fork.

    At the time the only intensity I saw was from Mark Williams putting his one or two players through their warm up skills paces in the middle.  Others seemed to be participating in something akin to schoolyard kick to kick.

    1 hour ago, Brownie said:

    I'm wondering if the players are all about fanging in bananas from the boundary. Some seem to be afraid of a drop punt on a 45 degree angle.

    Maybe they just don't practice 45m drop punts enough anymore?

    It's all about the round the corner trick shots

    Before the GWS game I sat near the fence watching the team do their usual pre-match warm up and goal kicking on the ground.

    Interestingly from the boundary 50m out, Gus Brayshaw was intent in kicking torps for goal from that posiiton for amusement. He wasn't the only one. Over in the middle Choco was taking real-life drills with some players, gathering ground balls, kicking etc.

    Very few practised kicking from 35-40 in front, assuming I guess that they can all do this and don't need to practice. Right?

    Gus's display was unprofessional at least and laughable at worst given the situation he was practising would never arise in a game. Maybe its just to relive the pre-match nerves to have a laugh.

    So maybe I take this pre-match stuff too seriously - some players sure don't.

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1