TheoX

This is a huge factor. People talking about his one game. This was not against even the best players of his own age group. Not against picking him if the recruiters who have much more detail on him think he is the right pick. But don't get to carried away on how good he looks from one game against junior opposition. I also can't think of a single top 3 pick from the NT. Or even a top 10 pick. There have been some terrific players from the NT but they are coming from along way back in elite development.

Jarred Brennan's a top 3 pick from the NT that comes to mind, a while ago though.

Do you need a hug this afternoon TheoX?

Na, just need us to not draft Lever lol.

This has been disputed by Jako13 who seems to know of what he speaks when it comes to such injuries

Jako13 clearly doesn't give much regard to evidence based practice though. He'd be using the same skills and knowledge he learned decades ago.

Use my brain you say?

You're pushing an agenda to the point where you're now looking foolish.

You've pointed out that Brayshaw isn't considered fast, yet he recorded a 20 metre sprint time of 2.82 seconds. Guess who also ran those times?

Jack Watts and Nathan Freeman.

Are you aware that this test in isolation gives possibly the most ambiguous results out of any test at the combine? Anyone who looks at an isolated test like the 20 metre sprint and concludes that a player who runs what is considered an 'average' or 'below average' sprint time is too slow for AFL football has peanuts for brains.

The variables and skills that make you quick at AFL level are a lot more complex than the ability to run as fast as you can in a straight line for 20 metres. It's not a game of tag.

I think you might need to reconsider some of what you've been spinning and maybe use your own brain to realise how silly you're spunding along with the rest of the posters that are of the belief he's too slow to make it. (It even makes me cringe re-writing it).

Other posters have given several examples of players who would test average or below average for the 20 metre sprint.

Kennedy

Watson

Mitchell

Hodge

Mundy

Hayes

Etc

Those names alone make whoever is pushing this argument look like a dang fool.

We get that you don't want Lever at pick 3.

But you're looking very silly by continuing to push this point of him being 'too slow'.

By your reasoning they may as well not have a draft combine at all. You're also saying AFL recruiters have peanuts for brains, since they obviously take the results into account (along with him being clearly slow on the field) when deciding to draft or not draft players. And don't compare him to slow midfielders. He's never played there in case you didn't realise. He's a key defender. But he might be able to you say? And he wants to try it? And he was amidfield coach? And he's great at rehab? And he's a great leader and speaks well? Where's the ignore button?

If he was a late pick, fine. But with his lack of pace and injury concerns he's too big a risk for pick 3 IMO.

West Coast took a player at pick 3 in the 2001 draft that had 2 shoulder reco's..... from memory he went ok.......

The shoulder is not a weight bearing joint, totally different kettle of fish to a knee reco. Lever is a massive risk, don't care if he's a great rehabber or leader or whatever, we need players who actually get on the field.

ACLs are rarely collision injuries, just thought I'd add that.

And if we took Darling off his 17 year old form we'd have done really well.

Anyway it's all a bit irrelevant. We'll draft who we draft and worry about it then.

And if we took Sellar, Callum Bartlett or Swift on their 18 yo form we would've taken them at pick 1 if we had it.

Really? Break down the bits of the video where he looks slow. Most of the fragments are too short to really say but I saw some good speed in some of them. Speed is important for key defenders though so I hope he has some toe. That 20m speed test isn't ideal but didn't Brayshaw do a 3.1 or something and then did some speed work to then run the 2.8. I wonder if Lever has been retested a few times since the draft combine as with more and more confidence in his knee plus some training he could lower it. Personally I dont know why they do a 20m sprint and not 40m as well.

Where did you see any good speed? I see agility and good marking, never speed. Other players make ground pretty easily on him from that vision, not that any of it's ideal since it never shows him trying to sprint away from another player on his tail. We know he's slow from objective tests.

Slow when compared to who?! Usain Bolt?

It's like saying Nick Reiwoldt is not an accurate kick for goal when compared to Lloyd.

So nobody should have drafted him.

This 'slow' talk is absolute fluff.

Use your brain, obviously he means it's slow compared to the average AFL player. He ran 3.19 for the 20m sprint as you know and you can't say that's fluff. Brayshaw isn't considered fast but he ran ~2.82. It's obvious from Lever's highlights that he's slow too. Good agility (before the reco at least) which makes up for it somewhat, but bloody slow.

You originally said Lever is at no extra risk of doing an ACL than a player that hasn't. You're allowed to admit you're wrong.

Using 10 new ones per year that would mean somewhere between 50 and 100 players are on lists with a prior knee ACL injury. At 4 recurrences that is a reinjury rate of between 4 and 8 percent - hardly anything to your knickers in knot over

Doubt there's 100 players in the AFL who've had an ACL reco. That's 1/7, so you reckon more than 6 on each list? Players with an ACL are more likely t have been delisted too, which means they wot show up in the recurrence figures anyhow. Lever is a risk, and one we sure as hell shouldn't take, given he's also very slow and doesn't fill a need for us.

Off the top of my head the average number of recurrent ACL's in the AFL are about 4 per year.... a total 4 across 18 teams with 45 odd players on a list. The total number of ACL injuries is averaged out to about 14 per year.

2013 was an odd year with 8 recurrences, 3 of which were synthetic LARS ligament failures - so 5 traditional graft failures. There was also a total of 23 that year - certainly a much higher rate than other years so 15 were new injuries.

Yep I'll stick to my thoughts that reinjury is far from a certainty, and that really it doesn't pose a greater risk than picking any other kid that hasn't had one

OK let's take your figures disregarding 2013. The average number of ACL reco's per year is 14. 4 of those are recurrent, 10 of them are new ACL's. How many players in the AFL? 700 odd? So 10 out of ~700 do a fist time ACL, how many players have had one already? 20? 30? 4 of those do an ACL. The risk is much higher for those who have had an ACL already. Expert opinion is the lowest form of evidence you can get.

in my opinion (after 20 years working in sports physiotherapy) poses no real further risk of injury if the surgery and rehab has been successfully implemented than any other young kid who hasn't gone through it and come out the other side.

Don't agree with all the evidence available that says this is not the case?

I am not saying you are right or wrong on McCartin what I am saying that the one proven fact is that the ratings pre draft are never right two years down the track and all the descriptions in the world is just guessing. Skinny Laverde or knee reco lever could turn out to be inspired choices.

I just love the way posters are so sure of their favourite picks when experts who watch week in and week out for a living get it soooo wrong with continuous monotony.

Yeah I get that, you've said it numerous times. What's wrong with having an opinion on a 'favourite pick' though? It's better than saying 'I have no idea who to take'. Anyhow, what is clear is that a 'power midfielder' is more likely to succeed at AFL level than the skinny project types, they have done that research, so if Petracca and Brayshaw are there at 2/3 it's a no brainer.

'.

I have no idea who to take - but what I do know is your description of McCartin as ready made competitive beast looks ok in an under 18 competition but what about next year in the big league ?

As a midfielder I think we need "a class act; a humble, hard-working player able to cut teams up with his skill and scoring ability". That is Emma Quayles description of Jimmy Toumpas. He may well turn out to be that way but hows the description looking two years in ??

If we want versatile big man how about this guy ? " A centre half-forward who can also play key defensive post. Reads ball in the air better than most. Endurance for a big man is first class so covers lots of ground and could be groomed to replace Jonathan Brown" This was description of Lucas Cook!! ( the Brown reference is Jay Clark had him going to the Lions - if only !)

So your description of McCartin well may be right - it well may wrong as well...

Clark said he could be groomed to replace Jono Brown as a CHF, but not that his game style resembled Brown's, it mentions nothing about agression or 1-1 ability etc, things that McCartin seems to be praised for. I'd rather go with that than skinny Laverde or slow as hell knee reco Lever. Quayle's description of Toumpas says nothing about competitive nature/contested ball winning ability either, no doubt Brayshaw's will and that's the kind of player we should go for IMO.

First of all - Demonland will go into Meltdown no matter who pick at pick 3 as there are such conflicting views by the posters on here.

No one will bat at eyelid at Brayshaw but I apologise in advance to our pick 3 as he will get flayed by half the posters here.

I want to take you up on your logic.

If you want to McCartin at pick 3 then you should not be questioning the recruiting staff on not picking Wines.

Expert opinion has McCartin going in the top 3 picks by almost everyone ( tell me if I am wrong)

Expert opinion in 2012 had Toumpas going in the top 4 picks and before Wines by everyone ( tell me again if I am wrong).

You can't have it both ways. You select what is considered the best at the pick by the experts - McCartin and Toumpas - or you don't and then we take a Wines/Lever/Laverde.

( disclaimer - I have stated that I have no problem moving away from what the "experts" think as the likes of Wines and Bontempelli are perfect examples of the "Experts" getting it wrong)

Isn't the argument that we take the relatively ready-made aggresive competitive beast in McCartin (akin to Wines), who is in this case is also the expert's consensus top 3 pick, rather than the skinny project outside Laverde type or injury ravaged Lever type. So we can have it both ways.

If we end up overlooking McCartin for Lever, are we picking up Lever because he's a lovely person who is as articulate as Jack Grimes or because the club considers him the third best player in the draft?

Don't forget, he's really dedicated to his rehab too.

We can take 2 mids with later picks, plus Brayshaw and Billy Stretch. It will come down to best available. If there was a second very good mid to take we'd take them. But just because Roos is suspect on drafting young forwards doesn't mean he won't let the recruiting staff do their job. I don't see Roos complaining about us getting Hogan. If McCartin is rated high enough we have to pick him.

Exactly, Roos was on the radio yesterday saying that the recruiting staff have the final say regarding who we draft, he just acts as a 'consultant'.

If we think he's the bet available we should be taking him regardless of landing Newton.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2014-11-03/cats-pleased-with-blease

Always someone else's fault hey Sammy.

I'd say this is an antiquated view of ACLs.

It's better to think of it in terms of a hamstring, with a longer recovery time.

Every so often a player suffers a bad hammy that leads to chronic hamstring injuries, but like ACL, this is a ratety, not the norm.

It is now quite a common procedure with an expected full recovery.

Unless there's something you know that we don't, your concerns are largely unfounded.

My god, you're comparing and ACL reco to a hammy tear. Wow. Players that have done an ACL in elite sport have a much higher chance of doing an ACL again as well as other knee injuries, and that's not unfounded, look it up.

i reckon this Lever kid has a lot of pull

has that been done already?

He's all torque and no action.

Toump was a todd viney pick.

Yeah, but like I said if you believe the stories, Neeld overruled Viney who wanted Wines. Who knows what really happened.

BP didnt select Toumpas.

The Dees haven't got it right for a long time Fingers definitely crossed.

No, but I don't think we had Jason Taylor when he was selected either (I think he started in 2013), Toump was a Neeld pick if you believe what's been said. Can't really say JKH or Salem have been BP-esque selections.

Comprehension issues again.

Maybe you should finish primary school before trying to comment on one of my posts.

.

Cheap shots and spin again. You're all class Machsy.

So... McCartin thinks he did well when playing further upfield... And that's it?

No one else to support his theory? It's not even someone else's opinion, it's his own!

That is supposed to give him credibility?

It's got a lot more credibility that your theory that Lever would make a good midfielder, despite him never having played there, which is based on, well, nothing really.