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Fat Tony

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Posts posted by Fat Tony

  1. 2 hours ago, old55 said:

    They'll have to give something decent back to GC for 7 + Bowes - probably F1st.

    Then what are they using for Bruhn and Henry? Will take 18 and ?

    I don't think they're getting Henry done, that sounds like it's being driven by Henry more than the Cats and Collingwood want to keep him.

    Isn’t Henry out of contract?

  2. 35 minutes ago, binman said:

    What are his kicking skills like?

    From the little i have seen of him he seems to be a good kick, but i haven't watched him enough to really assess him. 

    Thomas looked like he could be Shaun Burgoyne 2.0  in 2021 and kicked 24.17 and averaged 18 possessions. This year he was hopeless and looked mentally all over the shop.

    He definitely has the potential be a good pick up and suites our needs well.

    • Like 3
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  3. 18 minutes ago, Redleg said:

    I actually think that is a good effort, when you have 3 blokes hanging off you at every contest and it's not kicked to you once, but bombed high into the left pocket.

    Weideman kicked 13 goals from 10 games (including one in the ruck against Adelaide and two as second ruck against Hawthorn and Brisbane) and was similarly effective to Brown in terms of scoring as a forward. Weideman is considered hopeless on Demonland while Brown is hailed as a champion.

    Both these players need to average 2.5 goals per game to be accretive because they are both hopeless on the deck and offer little pressure.

  4. 11 hours ago, Travy14 said:

    100% agree,  BB is another one who people have jumped on and is undeserving.  He carried our fwd line all year playing a lone hand without any help.  constantly having defends drop of in front of him because they know that's the percentage play.

    Often having one arm held out of contests and being crashed into, No wonder he was banged up at the end of the year.  The value of having 2 fit talls in our fwd line will take a massive load of him.  Who knows, maybe even Weid could thrive in that set up too.

    Ben Brown did not CARRY our forward line. 30 goals from 19 goals from a full forward in a team that averaged 56.4 inside 50s per game (3rd in the comp) is ordinary at best.

    Personally, I think Melksham did an excellent job keeping his man out of the contest when we only had one tall (plus Jackson/Gawn). The delivery and ball movement needs to be changed next year, but IMO Brown is just not strong enough and I doubt he plays more than 10 more games for MFC.

    Games Average Goals
    Bayley Fritsch 2.29
    Kysaiah Pickett 1.78
    Tom McDonald 1.67
    Ben Brown 1.58
    Sam Weideman 1.3
    Jake Melksham 1.09
    Christian Petracca 0.79
    Max Gawn 0.59
    Ed Langdon 0.57
    James Harmes 0.57
    Toby Bedford 0.56
    Luke Jackson 0.5
    Charlie Spargo 0.42
    Alex Neal-Bullen 0.39
    Jack Viney 0.36
    James Jordon 0.32
    Tom Sparrow 0.3
    Clayton Oliver 0.22
    Jake Bowey 0.12
    Trent Rivers 0.11
    Angus Brayshaw 0.08
    Christian Salem 0.08
    Harrison Petty 0.06
    Jake Lever 0.05
    • Like 1
  5. 1 minute ago, old55 said:

    Do we really want to offer Jayden more than 2 years, that's the question. WC will be offering at least 3 years and that's what we need to compete with.

    I expect Hunt will be a similar player in 3 years. He is only 27. It is not a huge risk IMO.

    I like Hunt more than others around here.

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  6. 30 minutes ago, old55 said:

    The Lever trade was 10 + F1st for Lever and 35 (plus steak knives both ways) and Demonland thought WE got ripped off there.  That's the benchmark for this trade.

    I think Jackson is worth more than #1, but given we will only get 80 cents on the dollar here, I would have the Lachie Neale to Lions as the benchmark for the trade.

    The Lions gave up picks #6, #19 and #55 while receiving Neale and #30. This valued Neale at #3 in points.

    Freo's 2x first rounders is about worth roughly #3-4 in points. I would prefer we went for #14, North's pick #20 (for Logue), F2 & F3.

    • Like 2
  7. 3 minutes ago, MrFreeze said:

    Leg speed and tank. I remember Gawn said in an interview that is always him and Riv at the back of the pack during the long distance running.

    Rivers definitely has the speed required. I think if the bench goes to 5 next year, we could potentially play him on a wing for 60% of game time. (The average would be 78%.)

    • Like 1
  8. 54 minutes ago, Axis of Bob said:

    I do find it really interesting the idea of overvaluing what you can see and undervaluing what you can't see.

    As soon as posters saw "pick 7 for a salary cap dump and Bowes", they nearly fell over themselves to sign up. The questions of 'how much salary, how much do we have available, how does this fit into our salary strategy/structure' never really pops up because nobody know any of those numbers. It's effectively 'get pick 7 and Bowes for nothing because salary just goes into a magic box and those boffins will sort it out'.

    Every bit of salary we take on is salary that we can't use to bring in a player that we may really need. And that is either this year or in future years, as we can bring salaries forward to create space in future years. 

    In our situation, is spending nearly 7% of our salary cap for 2 years in the middle of our premiership window really worth pick 7 (minus change) and Jack Bowes?

    Great post. 

    I would also add that I expect our salary cap must already be tight. 

    And secondly, Geelong and Melbourne have shown that you don’t need high picks to find talent in the draft. Pick 7 might get us the player ranked 5 on our draft board, while pick 32 might net us the player ranked 15.

    Lastly, the value of picks is not as important as salary cap space. We picked the best player in the 2019 draft and are about to lose him well before his prime for less than we paid for him. 

    • Like 4
  9. 4 minutes ago, spirit of norm smith said:

    No more small forwards or small defenders for me 

    We have Hibbo Riv Salem Hunt Bowey D.Smith and Mcvee

    We have Kozzzy Spargo ANB Bedford Chandler Laurie AMW 

    Currently oversubscribed in my view 

    I’d like to bring the ruck/forward option to replace LJ, plus another skilled speedy midfielder (like a Chad Warner type) to run and provide good entries into forward 50. 

    Our small forwards are ordinary apart from Kossie. We definitely could improve that part of our list. 

    Another winger would also be desirable. 

    • Like 3
  10. 6 hours ago, whatwhat say what said:

    fwiw, from the sun:

    Melbourne says it wants two first-rounders and a second-rounder or two picks within 10 (including one within the first seven picks) for Jackson.

    https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/moneyball-afl-trades-all-the-latest-news-and-whispers-on-potential-2022-player-movement/news-story/1855f1401433f17306a756a3e7f5405a

    first time i've seen it said what we are chasing for dog

    We should be also willing to accept a number of lower picks rather than just a top 7 pick and a top 10 pick so long as the aggregate value is the same. 

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  11. 1 hour ago, Redleg said:

    To get pick 7, I would look at taking Bowes for 2 years and clearing some some room to accomodate him. Baker, Melk and Hibbo would probably be more than enough and there is uncertainty over Hunt and Tomlinson. Hunt as a free agent would give us a compo pick if he left and Tomlinson would free up another $500k for 2 years.

    Added to the Jacko trade, we could get some really good young talent that our ladder position wouldn’t give us access to ordinarily.

    This could be monumental for the next few years, as we bring in un gettable talent, while still being a flag contender.

    Tomlinson has only one year left I think. And I would guess GCS will be looking to get a future first as part of a deal unless Bowes is on absolutely ridiculous money. 

  12. 1 minute ago, Redleg said:

    I understand that, but it’s an illustration of the reward to a club that helps another salary dump. We are helping with about $3.5m in salary dumping and should be being rewarded, as there is no other club that Grundy will go to. Therefore we get a pick, or give a low pick, or there is no salary dump. Giving a first rounder in these circumstances, where it’s coming from the Pies to move him on, would be ridiculous IMO.

    The Grundy deal is not a salary dump from our perspective, because we will not be overpaying him.

    The Pies options are to take McStay and a first round pick or just hold Grundy. Both are $1m hit to the cap. From their perspective, they are saying Grundy is better than McStay by pick x.

     

    • Like 1
  13. 1 minute ago, mo64 said:

    But if the Pies pay $300pa and receive a 1st round pick as many are suggesting, it's still totally disproportionate to paying Bowes full salary and receiving pick 7.

    As Redleg said, Grundy is a salary dump by the Pies, and that's how we should perceive the trade. Giving up a 1st round pick of any kind is ludicrous.

    Grundy on $700k is a reasonable deal for the club. He was a top 10 player in the game. So I don't think a late first round pick is the issue. (Cap space is a much more important asset than picks in the age of free agency. We just don't get to see this because salaries are not public.)

    But I agree that he is not the best way for Melbourne to spend the $700k in our cap. We should be targeting a forward.

    • Like 1
  14. 9 minutes ago, Redleg said:

    For all those suggesting we give a first round pick for Grundy, the Suns have put pick 7 on the table for any club that takes Bowes and his last two years of a back ended contract. That’s right you buy pick 7 by taking on Bowes and his contract.

    As I posted earlier, we should offer a low pick, or an exchange of picks, as we are taking on a 5 year salary dump.

    That’s for taking the full whack of Bowes salary.

    The first round pick in the Grundy deal is is because of the dollars they will be paying. We would be the club getting better picks if we were taking the full Grundy salary. 

    • Like 5
  15. 38 minutes ago, JimmyGadson said:

    Were Jordon, Harmes or Brayshaw?

    I think his attributes would be of better use in that position than the above three names given our need for ball use and composure under pressure.

    We need a release player in that area of the ground. A player who can just set the next play up by hitting a target in a dangerous position. None of the players we have there can do that. Langdon's running ability is the only reason he plays on that opposite wind, his ball use is extremely dodgy and under pressure it's horrendous. And as good as Gus was defensively with his ability to cover, he similarly butches the ball and makes simple errors.

    We need some class there in the Steele Sidebottom mould. And Bowes is that.

    Gus and Jordan have learnt the defensive running patterns that is required to play on that members wing, Bowes would have no trouble with that. But he brings a completely different skill set and one we need.

    Our whole game plan has been developed because 1) we had only one true winger; and 2) we wanted the opposition to kick it long to Max.

    I think you are bang on that we should be looking to get another skilful, running player on the other wing. But I am not sure Bowes is that player (there is a reason he could not get a game at GCS) and I doubt we will want to pay him as much money as he is on. Jordon, Harmes or Brayshaw would be better IMO. Hopefully Woewodin, Bowey or Howes can also develop and fill the gap.

    • Thinking 1
  16. 11 minutes ago, JimmyGadson said:

    Wouldn't mind at the club making an offer to Jack Bowes, he has a lot of what we're missing and he's in a great age bracket.

    I think there's a position for him to play wing with his ball use, composure and clean hands being a strength and he's got good height and is strong above his head so folding back to intercept ala Gus is no issue.

    These are the moves I wish the club would make.

    Harmes and Jordon on a wing just does my head in. We just simply need to add some other components to our midfield mix.

     

    Is Bowes a winger though? Plus he's on a good contract and the Suns are willing to let him go for cap relief. I don't see us being in a position to add too much from a salary perspective.

    Menegola from the Cats is someone I would look at if we are chasing a winger. He is also contracted, but it would be hard for the Cats to keep him if he seeks a trade, particularly if he misses out on Saturday.

  17. I am keen for this to be trialled early in the year. Petty showed a lot of potential as a forward in 2019 and he has improved a lot as an AFL footballer since then. While we might be impacting our backline, Smith and Turner have both shown enough to indicate that we could adequately manage, particularly given we have May and Lever already there. I also think Petty plays the easiest position on the ground at the moment.

    Petty could go back if we decided it wasn't working (or there were better options in the forward line) and he would find it easy to adjust.

    I just think this is an experiment we should try next year before the last 5 minutes of the season.

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