Red But Mostly Blue

Love Melk. We have nobody else like him.

Always lowers the eyes. Elite kick, mark and creativity.

A defensive forward who holds his own and with continued good health, will terrorise opponents deep into September, hopefully.

2 minutes ago, binman said:

Last week i made the case that dees at 2.10 were overs and therefore represented value.

I also made the point that thinking we were value is not the same as thinking we would win, but that in fact i did think we would win.

Putting my punting hat on again for our game against the Saints it's sort of the opposite scenario.

I do think we'll win but the current odds of 1.49 is unders (ie under the true odds) IMO - and therefore the 2.64 you can get for the Saints is overs (but i still wouldn't back them because a good rule of thumb is not backing flakey teams you can't trust - and the saints are well and truly in that camp).

All things being equal, the plus 11 points Is better value.

But all things aren't equal.

As I noted last week, I don't bet on dees games, but if i did I would stay well away from this match (for any bet) because there's just too many variables, which taken together make this the very definition of a danger game.

Despite being in much, much better form than the saints I'm actually less confident this week than i was against because of these variables:

• Lyon will coach to nullify and negate - no chance he goes with a fast ball movement game plan that would advantage us

• Further to that point, Lyon will be focused on disrupting our method (look for us to have a huge number of uncontested kicks and marks accross our half back line as I reckon Lyon will flood back and not press up on the ball carrier)

• This creates a problem for us as, unlike say the Pies, our method is a woekk in progress and we don't have much experience dealing with scenarios where our opponents are hyper focused on disrupting our method as opposed to focusing first and foremost on their own method

• The game is at the Alice - unique ground, unique environment, both teams travelling etc

• I wonder if our high performance program is geared towards being in optimal shape on Kings birthday at the potential expense of this game (ie bigger block of training into this game then taking advantage of the 8 day break to taper into the pies game)

• After three huge matches in a row, and one coming up next game, Is there any risk of players subconsciously not being fully switched on?

One variable I was really worried about was the weather.

Heavy rain was predicted in the lead up which risked making surface really spongy as it doesn't drain well apparently.

And of course rain on game day would not help our cause and conversely help the Saints.

Bur fortunately i dont think there's been any hige downpours this week and apart from 1mm forecast today it's dry up to, and including, match day.

This is a huge game for us given how important the 4 points are to any chance we have of making finals. Bur I'm really nervous about it.

Key will be taking our chances early and putting scoreboard pressure on them. If we do i could see us opening them up and putting a big score padt them.

If we don't, and the Saints stay there,vor thereabouts, i fesr we are in for a very anxious watch.

100% no notes

(But yes I also think we will win, but $1.49 is way unders)

11 hours ago, binman said:

I was thinking something very similar this arvo.

Like all dees fans I hated the thought after our loss to the bombers that finals were our of the question. Uggh

Of course i hope we make finals, but just being in the frame for finals now creates an energy and buzz.

I am more excited about where we are now, compared to where we were last year.

We had a few good wins at the start of last year, then fell away. Hard. Think we lost to the Eagles and the 'wheels fell off' loss to Freo at this time. Here we have started poorly, and built nicely, better injury list, I can see us building towards something.

Finals would be great. I think we CAN make it. And if we do, we will be coming in with some steam so others will be wary. But if we don't, I think we can see the path forward.

3 hours ago, DubDee said:

Am I the only one that thinks Petty is playing a good role as the primary target up fwd?

Not getting the goals but competing hard and bringing the ball to ground

No way I would drop him to the Sub

For anyone looking at things aside from the very narrow marks/goals stat sheet, absolutely!

And more importantly, he is finally looking more confident out there. Remember the last 12-24 months? When he wasn't injured/hurried back early, he looked lost. Couldn't find the ball. Didn't know what to do when he did.

He doesn't look lost anymore. Looks like he knows he belongs again and can contribute. And is contributing. Very well. It will only improve with time. Good on him :-)

4 minutes ago, Roost it far said:

Hawthorn and GWS are the 2 teams I see us moving above on the ladder. Fremantle are the other side we’re competing with. Adelaide are also no guarantees to keep winning and our game against them should be a belter.

Our current form looks as good as anyone’s and I’ll just keep saying it, If we remain injury free, keep improving incrementally then we could easily go deep in September. Don’t anyone underestimate just how good Gawn, Petracca, Oliver and Viney can be when all in form, which it appears they are and also improving. I keep thinking in terms of the next 3-4 matches and their importance. In reality it’s just StKilda that matter. Win that, dust off and go again.

Agree.

Adelaide have not fully been challenged yet either. They the Lions/Hawks in the next few weeks.

Our list on paper is great. We have one of the best (non) injury lists right now (touch wood), and our form/confidence clearly increasing.

You're right. Win against the Saints and we unlock an opportunity to keep moving forward. One game at a time!

We can only win one game at a time :-)

12 hours ago, Roost it far said:

If we roll the Saints and then beat the Pies we’ll be 7-6 and the absolute in form side of the comp alongside GC. Why wouldn’t we make finals from there considering there’s every chance we’ll only be % outside the 8?

Completely agree.

We can beat the Pies. They are well drilled, but beatable if we maintain pressure. And we are due!!!

Then we have Port in Adelaide - which again, super winnable, with the bye following.

Imagine going into the break at 8-6!!?

We'll need that form and boost because we have away games v GC/Adelaide after the bye.

17 minutes ago, Ghostwriter said:

Spargs has indeed done a scapula but isn’t expected to be sidelined for eight weeks, the doc said it’s likely only four or five weeks because it wasn’t as bad as they oftentimes are.

Terrible luck for Spargypants. I think he was slowly starting to find his feet a little again, despite those who count hard stats and goals only, and think he wasn't.

42 minutes ago, Ghostwriter said:

It’s raining and there’s no free coffee and surprise, surprise… not a weekender in sight. I am literally the only spectator here. There’s more Victory fans here and they’re not even training!

Oh no, look at what’s on the field…

LOL love your work, DIABOLICAL 🤣

I've seen plenty of unnecessary losses to the Saints over the years. And there was a solid period of time where we couldn't beat them (tbf we couldn't beat anyone else, either).

They are an inconsistent lot right now, and that makes them a threat. Much like us, their best is v good.

This, the neutral venue, and the general evenness of the competition means we can't snooze on this game. It's a golden opportunity to keep up our momentum and enter the Pies game with 6/7 (which should have been 7/7) wins and with the boys flying. We certainly can still approach the Pies with confidence if we lose, but it will be a much stronger lead up if we can keep this streak going. And make no mistake, our best is much better than them. Pound for pound, we're a better team, and if we treat them with respect and apply the same pressure as the last few weeks, keep the ball in our 50, look for targets, take our chances etc, it should be a good 6 goal win.

As for the Pies, I believe we can beat them. But one week at a time, let's focus on keeping 4 qtr pressure on the Saints this week. We give them no quarter. Continue our push, one game at a time.

I'm calling this game: No Surrender in the Red Centre

I think what they meant to say is that Geelong will be just fine(d).

As always.

1 minute ago, leave it to deever said:

He probably is doing it for the rent. But he seems to be enjoying himself out there. I saw a few smiles from him.

My initial response was that he didn't dominate.

In watching the replay, I still stand by this but noticed a lot more seemingly little things he did. Blocks, subtle holds, tackles and taps that set up a few goals. Things that really helped in the last 30 mins.

Sadly for a bloke his size he only took one mark and achieved one hit out in rucking. So while I think he did more than enough, I've now swung back to replacing him with Jvr against the Saints.

After the last two games Max must be knackered and I think Jvr would be a better option in Max's role.

And hopefully Viney in for poor Spargo whose luck has been atrocious.

It's a tough one isn't it - we don't want to bring JVR back too early, so we don't get caught up in that never-ending revolving door approach - bring him back - not enough marks or goals - send him back, where his performance is OK, but probably not yet banging down the door for a recall - and repeat.

BUT

The reality is, we need him, but we need him to be the version he should be at this stage. And perhaps now with a better functioning forward line and delivery, he may get there sooner? Needs a confidence boost, and while he may get it in the 2s, the true confidence boost will be doing it where we need him. We COULD wait a couple more weeks - I think AJ has done some nice things (together will some unpolished sloppy things), but provided JVR comes in with a bit of physicality, rucks a bit (not too much, I think it stunted his development a bit - but yes better than AJ), and contributes i50, then arguably he's at the same level at least as AJ (minus the crazy factor that I quite like in AJ haha - was looking forward to him terrorising the saints a bit), and he can build on that and we lose nothing.

TL;DR - I think JVR in truth could do/needs more time in the 2s, but may never be a perfect time to bring him in, and maybe he will get swept up in the collective confidence of the team and clunk/slot a few.

Also Viney for Spargo (agree, unlucky, and has done some good things).

12 minutes ago, Redleg said:

It was the fact that Moore’s injury was partially self inflicted, due to his dropping to his knees unexpectedly, a second before Kozzie bumped him.

That action could not have been foreseen or reacted to in time, yet that was ignored by the Pies Premiership payer MRO and the mad Pies fan Tribunal chairman in their findings.

100000000000%

(I think that's, mathematically, the most correct anyone can be/agree with one another).

43 minutes ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

Hasn't TMac said his days as a permanent forward are over because his feet can't take the constant need for 180 degree turns? Or did I just make that up?

Nah, you're spot on. And if I recall, there was a period where he was up forward and was not cutting it, and was berated by many on here as being 'finished', before he was sent back for his (very successful) re-re-imagining as a backman.

Won't be returning up forward, save for very minor, desperate/curve-ball stints.

Outcome based sanctions makes a mockery of the purported mission to eliminate this sort of conduct.

Running a red light is a strict liability offence. You don't get a lesser penalty just because you somehow manage not to injure/kill anyone. However, you get a different, greater offence if you do. This should be the same.

If the AFL is actually serious about this (beyond just trying to look like they are/selective about who they penalise - i.e. Kozzie's being penalised THREE weeks for Moore diving into him), then they will be a. consistent and b. give a penalty irrespective of the outcome. That is the only way to address this conduct.

PERFORMATIVE SLAP ON THE WRIST INCOMING...

WATCH OUT, FIVE FIGURES!! 😱

1 hour ago, Demon Disciple said:

It’s because the MRO has NFI.

Well, that’s a succinct and accurate summary.

44 minutes ago, Earl Hood said:

Yep it’s difficult to work out what Mills thought he was doing. It didn’t look like a “football act” to me. The Pearce Freo hit, to me was an unavoidable, unfortunate football act. What exactly was Pearce to do with the opponent running back with the flight of the ball?

The one week is because Spargo wasn’t concussed I guess but I can’t remember was Moore actually concussed from the Kossie bump?

The commentators, e.g. Bartel, Hird are saying the MRO findings are injury outcome based.

Absolutely, didn’t look like a football act to me, either. And agree re Pearce. Stiff.

Yeah Moore was concussed. Ugh It’s a really lazy way of addressing high contact, non-football acts.

How was Mills’ bump ONE WEEK??!

Left the ground, elected to bump, could have concussed Spargo, may have?

What a joke.

Koz got 3x that for Moore diving into his hip.

1 hour ago, monoccular said:

I wonder if Darcy Moore will try to headbut KozIe’s hip again 😮

Still really angry about all of that, and how it just fizzled into the background.

22 minutes ago, binman said:

It's worth watching the analysis vid by Jeff White that has been referenced quite bit in the last week or so. A big part of it is highlighting the importance of structures and players carrying out their assigned role.

As i noted in another thread, Spargo is the new Nibbla - surely, we've all learned from the Nibbla experience the importance of looking past old school stats like disposals and goals to assess the performance of players with distinct roles.

The KPIs for his role would prioritize defensive running, pressure and tackles inside 50, assists and score involvements. Yes, he's a forward but goals are a bonus.

I'm not saying he's been brilliant (though he's been way better than many have suggested) but he has played his role, is presumably meeting his KPIs and is clearly an important part of our forward line structure and system. That's why he is selected each week.

Good way to put it - after Nibbler, you'd think some would have learnt that lesson - not everyone on the team will always generate easy to digest stats (29 disposals, 11 clearances, 8 score involvements, 7 tackles, 1 goal etc.). Sometimes it's pressure, positioning and being in the right place to make sure something else happens. You need those selfless types who give up a 'bigger' role to ensure success for the team. It's an important part of the bigger picture.

It's why it's a 'team' sport.

Unfairly flat analysis

(For such an emphatic win)

27 minutes ago, picket fence said:

Wrong on two levels

1 I don't know the Jeffersons

2 I didn't agree on his selection a few weeks ago on zero form!

That's exactly what Jeffo's mum would say!! 🤣

Don't think our recent record up there is very good (?) and while we should account for the Saints in our current form/momentum, as is the case with every single game really, we MUST play 4 quarters and treat them with respect. They've played some ordinary games, but also been quite good at times, and if we let our guard down, we could easily lose and miss out on a golden opportunity to approach the Pies at 6-6, having won 6 of the last 7 and arguably should've been 7/7 if not for a diabolical waste of opportunities against the Hawks. The Saints have some genuine guns. Be respectful...and

GIVE NO QUARTER.

2 hours ago, speed demon said:

I liked the look of our midfield yesterday, especially the extra dynamism Kozzie and Rivers bring.

I'd bring back Viney to play Spargo's role. Viney similarly fit, disciplined and tackles hard and his disposal is better when he has more time and space.

Like this a lot.

Our midfield is working well and don't want to disrupt it. Viney in for the Spargypants role gets Viney in with his pressure, while allowing the midfield to continue accumulating minutes and confidence together.

Sharp to sub again.

TMac stiff. Don't think Lever was good, and his ankle is suspect. I reckon he was brought back early. Maybe Lever improves with another run, but what I do know is that TMac has been great all year and would trouble the Saints. This one is a tough call.

No other changes.

17 minutes ago, Katrina Dee Fan said:

See, this is the thing, we've been Narrm for 8 games, with a 4/8 win ratio. The rubbish we don't win under Narrm is just that, rubbish. But by far this year has been the most satisfying of those :)

Sorry, I meant both our games. Have we done both in a year before? Not sure, was just pleasing to see :-)

(And absolutely!!)