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At the break of Gawn

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Posts posted by At the break of Gawn

    9 minutes ago, YesitwasaWin4theAges said:

    We will be ready come Friday night and beyond. The belief and energy will be back.

    Back in our people.

    The other side of the coin is when the pressure is at its greatest in Finals Football teams tend to revert back to old habits when the tough gets going.

    We have trained and played a certain way consistently for nearly 3 years we believe in our method, these others teams haven't had these moments of realisation that there football stands up.

    Just go and ask Jeelong.

    I really hope you’re right.

    • Like 1

    As someone else said pressure around the contest, but it’s also our unrealistic desire of a clean exit out of stoppage. The number of times we had first hands on the ball at the stoppage (particularly at centre bounce) but we tried to handball it away for a clean exit and the dogs stole it was mind boggling. Same thing also happened with Freo and Geelong. I get that at times we can be really damaging and score goals from clearance but I really think we need the territory first. This desire for a clean exit must be coach driven so maybe they’re worried about our ability to get ball to ground in our F50 if we do a bomb kick?

    • Like 1

    It’s funny how we solve one problem but then another one pops up. A month ago it was all about our forward connection and our lack of pressure inside 50. We’ve sort of fixed that up with a smaller forward line but now our defence is looking shaky.

    I for one think Max needs to start to become a bit more accountable for his man rather than fill in the hole. He needs to decide when to go and impact the contest or when he can’t (Jackson included).

    I’ll also point out that both of our most recent losses have been on smaller grounds where he can’t use the full width like we like to.

    For me the real test is how we play against the next three weeks. Optus and MCG games are where we are best. If we can’t get it right then it’s good night on 2022.

     

     

    • Like 1

    We might not win it this year, but there’s no way Collingwood are getting anywhere near it.

    Have had an almighty soft draw and unbelievably lucky to sneak some of those wins.

    • Like 1

    2 minutes ago, 1964_2 said:

    After seeing some footage of Gus’ loose checking, I wonder to what extent he is prioritising getting his 25-30 touches each week, vs defensive efforts, stopping goals etc. 

    Has anyone been watching him closely enough to make a call on this? 

    I thought Salem had the balance (attack vs defence) pretty right prior to this season. 

     

    I think Fritsch’s was also pretty damning. Last year I seemed to recall him do plenty of forward 50 tackles and chase downs. I feel his defensive pressure has dropped off.

    3 hours ago, spirit of norm smith said:

    Our record v bottom 8 teams. 11-0

    Our record v top 8 teams. 2-5. !!!!! 

    I just remembered this was very similar to Port last year. Couldn’t beat a top 8 side until they beat the dogs in round 23 and then they smashed the Cats at home in the QF. Got found out in the prelim though…

    2 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

    What are the odds of us going 0-4 on the run home and Dogs OR St Kilda  and Richmond going 4-0 on the run home?

    We’ll miss finals if that happens.

    If Dogs lose next week to Geelong we’ll probably unofficially qualify regardless of  us winning another game.

    Yep. I’ll be barracking hard for Geelong next week, because although I think it’s unlikely, we could lose all of the remaining 4.

    Dogs are a great clearance side. If they get a hold of the Cats, they could steal it. 

    29 minutes ago, binman said:

    As I have noted before, the premiership betting market is the best predictor of the PROBABLE flag winner.

    That's because the market reflects the opinion of thousands of people who aren't just spit balling, they are staking real money on that opinion.

    The bigger the pool, the more accurate it is. And the flag betting pool is in the many millions accross the various bookies.

    After this corresponding game last season (a loss where, like last night our defence didn't work, giving up 85 points in wet and slippery conditions) we drifted out to $5.50 to win the flag (odds I jumped on because they were way, way overs - not that you'd thought so if you read dl).

    Many would assume we would have drifted again after last night's loss, and, judging by the tenor of this thread, would consider it ridiculous for us to be one of the favourites to win the flag.

    The professional punters, who shape the market, not the $20 punters, have learned their lesson from last year - and have also cooled on freo big time.

    As a result, we didn't drift at all after last night's loss and remain at 3.50 to win the flag - only shaded by the cats, who are at 3.25 to win the flag.

    Which is unfortunate for me as I'd hoped to get at least $4 for the dees to win the flag.

    By the by  I highlighted probable because it is an important principle in terms of predicting outcomes.

    In my assessment, the 'true' odds of the dees winning the flag is about $3.00 (so $3.50 is overs in my assessment, but not enough value at this point in the season to bother taking) and I'd mark the cats as second favourite, with their true odds being $4.50 (well unders then)

    On that assement, we are clear favourites.

    But even at $3, if you play out the season from this point 10 times, we only win aprox 3.3 times.

    So even as $3 favourites, the probable outcome is we 'fail' to win the flag aprox 67% more often than we win it

    So on my odds (which is about the same odds the bookies have the cats at atm) we are aprox a 33% chance of winning the flag and therefore 67% chance of not winning it

    I think we are the most likely winner of this year's flag, but im fully cognisant of tbe fact that on the balance of probabilities, we won't.

     

    Surely you are the most optimistic supporter on here @binman - I need to see us win the next three before I’m thinking about b2b.

    • Like 2

    ·

    Edited by At the break of Gawn

    I was at the game last night and it was clear from the second half that they were going to win. They started to dominate clearance and started to win the territory battle. We have been poor most of the year from transitioning out of our d50 which is why clearances are our most important stat because it allows us to generate high inside 50s and repeat entries.

    We only stayed afloat in the 2nd half from a few plucky centre clearance goals and that’s it. This game was so similar to the Collingwood game it isn’t funny. Once they started to dominate territory it was only a matter of time before the damn wall broke and they started converting. Exactly like the Pies did on QB.

    A few other key take outs from me:

    - The Dogs play Marvel really well and they move the ball very quickly there which allows them to play a shoot out sort of game. Their defence isn’t good enough to hold good teams back so a shoot out is there strength. We as a team are poor against teams that move the ball so quickly because we don’t get enough time to structure up properly. That’s why clearances and territory is so important for us.

    - The Dogs are the best clearance side in the AFL. It’s not a surprise to me that we lost clearances. 

    - The dogs are a good side. They’ve turned the corner a bit and have pretty much a full strength side. Bont going back into the middle  and pushing Treloar to half back has been pivotal for them. I expect them to finish in the top 8, and we know they can win it from anywhere.

    -No Lever really stuffed up some of our structure behind the ball.

    - A little bit like the Geelong game, that result is a bit of an anomaly for us. We don’t let teams score like that. I’m sure we’ll fix that up next week. 

    - I’m actually thrilled our forward line is humming a bit. Yes we only scored 30 points in the second half, but we had pretty limited opportunities due to the dogs locking it in.

    - Oliver and Petracca lowered the colours a bit. I expect a huge response next week across the board.

    - We will beat Freo next week. They are poor at moving the ball, they’re a slow ball moving side and our smallish forward line will trouble them. Lobb likely out, Fyfe is out and we’re playing at arguably one of our favourite venues.

    - I wouldn’t bring Ben Brown back next week. I think Weid is a better match up for Pierce/Ryan.

    - And finally… we can still miss the 8. If we lose all our remaining games, Dogs win all of their games and Richmond win all of their games then we finish 9th. (I’ll probably be barracking for Geelong next week to knock off the dogs)

    • Like 2
    • Thanks 1

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    Edited by At the break of Gawn

    Yes it’s possible that Daisy was initially appointed her boundary rider gig a few years ago primarily on a quota thing, but since then she has done such a tremendous job it was impossible not to promote her into the box for special comments as she provided so much more insight than likes of Ling/Richo etc.

    Just for fun, here is my special comments ranking from first to last (Tv only)

    Bucks

    Dunstall

    Lewis

    Bartel

    Jones

    Daisy

    Riewoldt

    King

    Hodge

    Lyon

    Brown

    Carey

    Richo

    Healey

    Watson

    Dermott

    Matthews


     

    26 minutes ago, dazzledavey36 said:

    Melksham was horrible. Let others on here fool you into thinking otherwise. He's an immediate out next week.

    You have no idea what Goodwin values if you think that. Had 5 forward half tackles including some great run downs.

    • Like 8
    • Haha 1

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    Edited by At the break of Gawn

    Laughable that people are suggesting Fritsch to be dropped. You don’t drop your leading goal kicker and a guy who has a good record against the Dogs.

    Melksham won’t get dropped. He’s going to be a permanent fixture I think in this 2 tall set up. His tackling was great and he usually has good vision.

    In: Oliver, Petty

    Out: Bedford, Tomlinson (unless Lever is injured)

    • Like 1

    Thank god for Kozzy Pickett. He literally dragged us over the line in one of the best individual performances all year

    We’re still not firing on all cylinders and got beaten in pretty much all the key stats. Got smashed around the ball again and in clearances. Had a low inside 50 count, it was really just the class of Kozzy, a bit of BB and Fritsch that got us over the line.

    Also, watching first crack earlier and Montagna is convinced that we’ve decided on the 2 tall set up. 2 talls (Brown and Gawn/Jacko), 2 medium sized (Fritsch and Melksham (had 7 tackles)), and 2 smalls (Kozzy and Spargo/AnB). We had the most amount of marks inside 50 in ages and our forward pressure was good for once.

    • Like 7

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    Edited by At the break of Gawn

    3 hours ago, von said:

    We could have taken the lead 2/3rds of the way through the Geelong game despite looking sluggish and fumbly. We were under more physical duress than they were. Geelong said they are running on top of the ground now and felt good. They built their season around this game it seems. It will be interesting to see how the two programs play out come season end. They look good now. 

    If you look at last year, Geelong were absolutely flying at this point in time too. They had won 10 of their past 11 but it was around early August things started to turn awry for them. 

    They struggled to get over North Melbourne, then they lost to the GWS at home, almost lost to a really lowly Saints side and then got overrun by us at home. By the time finals had started they were cooked and Port destroyed them and they never really recovered.

    With them going so well at the minute it wouldn’t surprise me that they’ve mistimed their training loads again and stumble in September.

    • Like 1

    I think if our game is in good shape as Goodwin has said, we’ll bounce back against Port and also account for the Dogs the week after.

    Freo onwards and we’re pretty much playing a finals series before the finals series and we’ll really get to know if we’re any chance of going b2b.

    FWIW I having a sneaky feeling we’ll beat Freo. They’ve struggled to move the ball at times and score. I can’t see them doing what they did to us again earlier in the season. 

    • Like 3

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    Edited by At the break of Gawn

    Listening to Jordan Lewis on this last night and I have doubts Jacko will ever fulfill his potential. He’s a very laidback sort of person and not someone who’s a competitive beast like Max or Oliver. 

    Similar to how we turned the Hogan trade into securing the missing piece of our premiership backline, we need to use this Jackson trade as an angle to secure an elite key contested marking forward.

     

    • Like 6