IT'S A LONG WAY TO THE TOP ...

by JVM and Sam the Stats Man

The Melbourne Football Club is at the crossroads as far as its 150th Anniversary Year is concerned. We are three rounds into the new season and the Demons are sitting in last place on a 0 and 3 record but we've been in that place before. In both of the past two seasons, Melbourne had the worst of all possible beginnings to their premiership campaigns but with significantly different outcomes.

I defer to our resident Statistician, Sam the Stats Man to take you through those horror starts and to give a statistical insight into what might happen next:

In 2006, the club was at a low ebb after opening with three defeats including a 19 point loss at Telstra Dome to the eventual wooden spooner, Carlton and a soul destroying 47 point loss at the same venue to the Bullies. The results were -

Round 1 2006 Melbourne 10.12.72 lost to Carlton 13.15.93

Round 2 2006 Western Bulldogs 20.17.137 defeated Melbourne 12.18.90

Round 3 2006 Melbourne 14.13.97 lost to Adelaide 15.12.101

The ladder after Round 3 showed the Bulldogs on top (3-0), Adelaide in sixth place (2-1) and Carlton ninth (1-2). Melbourne was in 15th place with a percentage of 78.0 and ahead only of Richmond. Things looked bleak because the Demons' next game was an away fixture against Sydney but, against the odds, they turned things around and won a thriller by 5 points. They won their next four before losing by 22 points to eventual premiers, the Eagles at Subiaco which was the venue of their next defeat against Fremantle in Round 16. In the interim, they had won 11 out of 12 games. A 51 point victory over the Bulldogs in their return game at the MCG had the Demons well placed in third position but they lost Aaron Davey, Travis Johnstone and Byron Pickett to injury and fell again Carlton the following week. Wracked by injuries, the team limped into the finals and managed to win one against the Saints in a game where Brock McLean came of age, before falling at Subiaco in the following week's semi final. The end result was a fifth placing - the highest of all Victorian based teams that year.

The injury curse continued into 2007 when the team once again made a poor start -

Round 1 2007 Melbourne 9.8.62 lost to St. Kilda 13.15.93

Round 2 2007 Hawthorn 17.14.116 defeated Melbourne 14.10.94

Round 3 2007 Melbourne 8.9.57 lost to Geelong 15.19.109

All three of Melbourne's opponents were in the top eight on 2 - 1 records: the Cats were 2nd, the Saints 6th and the Hawks were 8th. The Demons were last with a percentage of 67.0. The horror run with injury persisted and there was almost no light in the tunnel although things were looking better with two consecutive wins in Rounds 10 and 11 against Adelaide (the club's ice-breaker for the season) and Collingwood. The club finished in 14th place after the farcical final round game in which Carlton "tanked" in order to win the notorious "Kreuzer Cup".

And so we come to 2008 and statistically, Melbourne's start has been even worse than in 2006 and 2007 -

Round 1 2007 Hawthorn 23.16.154 defeated Melbourne 6.14.50

Round 2 2007 Melbourne 9.12.66 lost to Western Bulldogs 24.17.161

Round 3 2007 Geelong defeated 16.16.112 defeated Melbourne 12.10.82

This time however, there is little doubting that the Demons have been provided with a tough initiation for their new coach. All three of the opponents to date are undefeated and naturally, they occupy the top three spots on the ladder. Melbourne is last with a measly percentage of 46.4 and hasn't won a quarter of football let alone a whole game. Statistically, there's very little to suggest that the Dees are going anywhere in season 2008 but to the very foot of the table although there are some small glimmers of hope.

The result against Geelong was pleasing in that the team improved by at least 10 goals on what might have been the anticipated result in view of its two earlier shellackings. Despite the loss of Paul Johnson with a broken hand, the general trend as far as injuries are concerned is turning around markedly. Every week since the start of the season, the club's playing ranks have been strengthened through the return of key players after injury. Two weeks ago it was Clint Bartram, Lynden Dunn and Colin Sylvia, last week it was Jared Rivers and this week it's Matty Whelan. The number of experienced games missing through injury from players of higher value to the team is dropping at a rapid rate and that means the team's results have to get better.

Every week so far, the club has increased by an increment of three, the number of goals it has kicked in a game - from 6, to 9, to 12. It's not beyond the bounds of statistical probability therefore to predict a 15 goals score line for the Demons against North this week which, based on the stats of all games played so far, should see them produce some winning quarters of football at last. There's a strong probability that a further improvement of that proportion will see them fall in by a narrow margin - say 5 points which is the same as the team's winning margin in 2006 against Sydney in the equivalent round.

This should start to see a turn around in Melbourne's season, perhaps in the same way as that famous game at the SCG turned its fortunes around two years ago. I'm 50% sure of that!

So that's the statistical analysis and, though it probably doesn't mean much, it shows that there's still hope even when you're at 0 and 3. The challenge of course, is to start winning games and that's another ball game altogether. That ball game starts on Saturday.

THE GAME

North Melbourne v Melbourne at MCG – Saturday 12 April 2008 at 2:10pm

HEAD TO HEAD

Overall North Melbourne 61 wins Melbourne 83 wins 1 draw

At the MCG North Melbourne 30 wins Melbourne 54 wins

Since 2000 North Melbourne 5 wins Melbourne 7 wins

The Coaches Laidley 0 wins Bailey 0 wins

MEDIA

TV Fox Sports 1

RADIO SEN 774ABC

THE BETTING North Melbourne to win $1.25 Melbourne to win $3.55

LAST TIME THEY MET North Melbourne 19.12.126 d Melbourne 9.8.62, Round 16, 2007, at Telstra Dome

This game will be remembered by Melbourne fans for one reason and one reason only. It was the night when Michael Newton soared through the stratosphere and landed on the Telstra Dome turf to claim mark of the year. Every other aspect of this game is shrouded in dense fog and has been erased from the memory banks.

THE TEAMS

NORTH MELBOURNE

Backs Josh Gibson Michael Firrito Drew Petrie

Half Backs Daniel Pratt Shannon Watt Jess Smith

Centreline Daniel Wells Adam Simpson Ed Lower

Half Forwards Nathan Thompson Aaron Edwards Brent Harvey

Forwards Ben Ross Corey Jones Matt Campbell

Followers Hamish McIntosh Brady Rawlings Daniel Harris

Interchange Sam Power Shannon Grant Lindsay Thomas Leigh Brown

Emergencies Leigh Harding Eddie Sansbury Gavin Urquhart

In Ed Lower Ben Ross Jess Smith

Out David Hale (quad) Leigh Harding Andrew Swallow (both omitted)

New Ben Ross (Gippsland U18)

MELBOURNE

Backs Matthew Whelan Nathan Carroll Jared Rivers

Half Backs Paul Wheatley Brad Miller Daniel Bell

Centreline Brad Green Brock McLean Clint Bartram

Half Forwards Cameron Bruce Russell Robertson Colin Sylvia

Forwards Aaron Davey David Neitz Austin Wonaeamirri

Followers Jeff White James McDonald Nathan Jones

Interchange Mark Jamar Chris Johnson Lynden Dunn Cale Morton

Emergencies James Frawley Colin Garland Brent Moloney

In Whelan Jamar

Out Colin Garland (omitted) Paul Johnson (hand)

Field umpires TBA

... WHEN YOU'RE ON THE BOTTOM

I had a bit of a giggle this week when I read a preview of a game involving a certain AFL team (not Melbourne) that remains without a victory at this juncture. The reason why they weren't winning was (and I kid you not) is that they weren't able to kick a winning score.

Go figure?

I must admit however, that from Melbourne's viewpoint, the same thing applies. If you're only averaging nine goals a game, it's unlikely that you're going to come home with the four points. This means that the coaching department need to take a long hard look at both the midfield, its supply to the forward line and the forwards themselves. The performance of the midfield last week was a great improvement on the two opening rounds and hence, the improved result. However, things could have been even better had the forward line shown a similar improvement.

The key to Melbourne's improvement therefore, is whether its forward line can respond and start performing as expected. Looking around at the other AFL clubs, you find some formidable tall forwards who really have a lot to offer in terms of their potency and the capacity to destroy opposition defences. The reigning premiers have Mooney and Hawkins, the Hawks have Franklin and Roughhead, the Saints Riewoldt and Justin Koschitzke (plus the G Train). On their form to date, the Demons suffer by comparison - Neitz and Robertson have only three and five goals respectively for the season to date. The two have been stalwarts in the forward line and even though it might be argued that the deliver into their region hasn't been too flash, they haven't looked dangerous at any stage this season. Three of Robbo's goals came late in the Hawthorn game when the massacre had already taken place. Both players are on notice and the pressure will be on them to perform this week. Is that a lot to ask of two blokes with more than 500 games experience between them?

The competing clubs started the season poorly. North Melbourne's opening round defeat of 55 points at the hands of Essendon was nowhere near as pathetic as Melbourne's 104 point drubbing at the hands of Hawthorn but the Bombers' 99 point defeat to Geelong the following week put that in its perspective.

The Kangaroos were lucky enough to come up against a rudderless Richmond in Round 2 but it was last week, against Hawthorn, that saw them really come back to the form expected from them. To lead the rampaging hawks for all but 6 minutes of the game was an exceptional effort although the last few minutes of the game would have been disappointing. Similarly, the gloss was taken off Melbourne's improved form last week by some lapses in red time when kicking with the aid of the wind in the first and third quarters. In any event, both teams are playing with far more confidence than they did in Round 1 and the result of this game might well devolve on whether they can continue that trend this week.

I have a hunch that Melbourne has greater scope for improvement in this area than North Melbourne but it still might not be enough to get the Demons off the bottom. On reflection, I think I'll have to disagree with our stats man and select North Melbourne to win by a margin of 15 points in what will, for the Demons of 2008, be a real thriller.