FROZEN IN TIME

[Demonland 66,795]

by the Oracle

Imagine if it were possible to freeze everything and to suspend yourself in a single moment in time?

If I could do that I would choose to go back a little more than a year and a half to Round 21, 2006 when the Demons last travelled to the Cattery to take part in an AFL game played for premiership points. If I could narrow the time down a little more, I would select the very moment well beyond the halfway mark of the second quarter when Melbourne was coasting toward victory with a more than handy 38 point lead and with every chance of securing a top four placing on the eve of the finals series given that the last game was to be played against an injury ravaged Adelaide in the final home and away round.

In this frozen moment of time, Melbourne should have been further in front against Geelong but for one or two appalling decisions from the umpires but I'll let that rest for now. The Demons had dominated the game to that point and they held sway by such a huge margin because they were playing an aggressive free-wheeling brand of football while the Cats were hesitant and lacked accountability.

The home team was virtually down and out sitting in the middle of the road as far a ladder placement was concerned and destined to finish behind Richmond (which in turn, would acquire another wooden spoon by the end of 2007). There was little incentive for the Cats to get themselves off the floor while the Demons had every reason to push hard for a good victory to consolidate third position on the ladder in a battle where every goal was worth valuable percentage in a tight battle for positions at the top of the AFL table.

Now let's unfreeze and move on through the rest of the game played on that fateful day just twenty months ago. History tells us that it was Geelong that regrouped, added a mix of desperation, discipline and attack and pushed itself to the limit in order to kick nine of the last eleven goals of the match to peg the margin back and to momentarily take the lead. In the end, the Demons managed to contain the damage by fighting back with a late point in the dramatic final three or four minutes of the game.

The second half of the game was a precursor to where the teams would be over the next twelve months and beyond. Geelong added disciple, fitness and confidence to its armoury and, at a point six weeks into the following season, was on its way to a premiership. Melbourne, on the other hand, fell apart. The decline was exacerbated by a serious injury list but the cracks were everywhere. Coach Neale Daniher fell by the wayside. His caretaker coach Mark Reilly, has gone too. Dean Bailey is left to pick up the pieces with a list that has already seen a dozen changes in personnel after one summer and which is being asked to play a different style of game to that which many players have been accustomed for all their football lives. They are struggling and the Cats are purring.

They meet each other on Sunday in a game where the bookies are saying that if the Dees get up to win, the bookies will pay out up to a $34.00 dividend. Thirty-four bucks in a two horse race. Think about that. If the match were an even bet they would be offering around $1.85 so that suggests what the bookies think of Melbourne’s chances. The rest of the world thinks the same thing.

THE GAME Geelong v Melbourne at Skilled Stadium - Sunday 6 April 2008 at 1.10pm

HEAD TO HEAD

Overall Geelong 117 wins Melbourne 83 wins 2 draws

At Skilled Stadium Geelong 31 wins Melbourne 17 wins 1 draw

Since 2000 Geelong 7 wins 1 draw Melbourne 6 wins

The Coaches Thompson 0 Bailey 0

MEDIA

TV Fox Sports 1 (1.00pm)

RADIO ABC 774 SEN KRock MMM

THE BETTING Geelong to win $1.01 Melbourne to win $34.00

LAST TIME THEY MET: Geelong 15.19.109 defeated Melbourne 8.9.57 at the MCG in Round 3 2007

The Demons had opened the season poorly with losses to both St. Kilda and Hawthorn and their injury list was growing by the day. They were blown away by the Cats who dominated in virtually every position on the ground.

Brad Green, who was moved forward to cover the loss through injury of Neitz and Robertson and kicked four goals, was one of the few Demons who could hold his head high after the game. As a youngster, Green was one of the club's most effective forwards. Perhaps this is where his future lies?

THE TEAMS:

GEELONG

B Tom Harley Matthew Scarlett Josh Hunt

HB Darren Milburn Harry Taylor Corey Enright

C Cameron Ling Joel Selwood Jimmy Bartel

HF Steve Johnson, Cameron Mooney, Paul Chapman

F Ryan Gamble Tom Hawkins Mathew Stokes

Foll Mark Blake Gary Ablett Joel Corey

Interchange James Kelly Max Rooke Trent West David Wojcinski

Emergencies Shannon Byrnes David Johnson Brent Prismall

In Max Rooke

Out Shannon Byrnes

MELBOURNE

B Paul Wheatley Nathan Carroll Jared Rivers

HB Clint Bartram, Daniel Bell Lynden Dunn

C Brad Green, Brock McLean Colin Sylvia

HF Cameron Bruce Brad Miller, Paul Johnson

F Aaron Davey David Neitz Russell Robertson

Foll Jeff White James McDonald Nathan Jones

Interchange Colin Garland Chris Johnson Cale Morton Austin Wonaeamirri

Emergencies Simon Buckley James Frawley Brent Moloney

In James Frawley Chris Johnson Brent Moloney Jared Rivers Austin Wonaeamirri

Out Jace Bode Isaac Weetra

New Austin Wonaeamirri (St Mary's NT)

ODD SPOT

Just in case you think Skilled Stadium holds any fears in the hearts of the Demons, don't forget that Melbourne hasn't lost a game at Sleepy Hollow since Round 8 2004 when the Cats won 15.11.101 to 12.15.87 [and even on that occasion the Demons had more scoring shots].

UNFURLING SOME SPIRIT AND PASSION

The best thing to happen to the Demons for a long time is that they have been invited to attend the premiership flag unveiling at the Cats' first real home game of the year. Melbourne should regard that as an honour and a privilege because it will give all and sundry - the Board, officials, coaches, players and even a handful of supporters - the opportunity to see at close quarters, exactly what a truly successful football is all about. That feeling should resonate with them before, during and after the unfurling of the flag and, with a little bit of luck, some of the lessons gained from the experience will help the club immeasurably going forward.

It matters little what the result of the game might be - as long as they play with some spirit and passion and learn from the experience because this year does not look like a year for winning games - at least not this early in the season or against this opposition.

It might sound as if I'm writing the Demons off here but that's not really the case. I really don't expect this week to be a total loss; rather a stepping stone to the following weeks with games against North Melbourne and Carlton when the many players whose pre seasons were interrupted will start finding their legs and the team gets some more experience, confidence and accountability into its system. In the words of coach Bailey, this should make them more

competitive[unquote] but while, things will definitely improve, it will take time.

This week's selections all point to some optimism even for the short term. We shouldn't expect too much from Jared Rivers in his first game back for the club after breaking down in mid season with a groin injury. He was however, easily the club's biggest loss in an injury ravaged 2007. Although the record shows he played three games, he wasn't right in any one of them and his loss was devastating to the Demon backline. He will not provide miracles first up but his name is as important an inclusion in the team's line up as any other in the past five years and as long as he's around, the team will be more

competitive[unquote] and you can therefore forget about those dire predictions of another century plus defeat. It simply won't happen.

The inclusion of the club's new pocket dynamo from the Tiwi Bombers in the Northern Territory, Austin Wonaeamirri, is an indication that the club is going to introduce more run into its makeup in order for the team to be more

competitive[unquote] and surely that must be seen as a positive.

I also expect a big improvement from the club's leadership group. Their heads are on the chopping block and, if they can't ship up over the next few weeks and become more more

competitive[unquote] then some of them will be saying "adios amigos" or "zai jian"* very, very soon.

HERE'S THE TIP

There are four things that you should never do if you want to be a successful tipster.

• Never ignore form …

• Never try to predict the exact time when an ailing club will suddenly become more

  competitive[unquote] ....

  Never go against the odds offered by bookmakers and

  Never waste your time compiling lists of rules.

  That said, this game is definitely not what you would call a "tipster's nightmare" unless you're a perfectionist and want to have a crack at guessing the winning margin.

  Form and the bookies suggest that margin is going to be monstrous this week and, as Whispering Jack pointed out in his review of Melbourne's loss last week, the pattern for the first part of the season has been set. The only way I can foresee a break in that pattern would be if the Cats forgot about the overrnight change from daylight savings time and gave Melbourne a hour's start. Otherwise, I expect the Demons to try hard to be more

  competitive[unquote] this time around particularly with a better all round line up this week. They won't run out of juice as badly as they did in the first two games but I can't see them coming close to Geelong away from home at this stage of the team's development.

  Geelong to win a close one (for the Dees) by 46 points.

  * I've added what I think is Chinese for goodbye in deference to the club's close connection with the People's Republic of China. I kept the original words "adios amigo" just in case the game turns ugly and anyone feels like sneaking south of the border to avoid embarrasment.