DANCING WITH STARS?

by the Oracle

As they say in the classics, a week's a long time in football and don't I know it?

Last week I was jumping out of my skin in anticipation of the start of the 2007 AFL season. Friday night couldn't come around quickly enough.

When the time came, things began well for the Demons who were strong favourites with the bookies. They jumped quickly out of the blocks to lead by 17 points - 3.2.20 to 0.3.3 with more than half of the first quarter gone but I wasn't about to start celebrating. After years of experience, I know Melbourne all too well!

The events of the remainder of the evening are well documented; the team fell into the old familiar abyss it often inhabits just when you're convinced that a new day is about to dawn. Skills, tactics and good old football brains all went out of the window and the supporters were treated to garbage. Was this the same team that we had so eagerly waited to see for six months?

Just like last year, we left the ground after game one totally crushed by the weight of seeing our team totally outplayed and outcoached!

That was a week ago.

By Saturday morning I was considering joining a monastery.

A miserable weekend ensued during which I contemplated the possible ways in which I could avoid eyeball to eyeball confrontation on Monday morning with my St. Kilda supporting workmates. Stay away from the water cooler, keep your nose to the grindstone and look busy even if you aren't. That sort of stuff!

Ultimately, I was forced to take my medicine and what a bitter pill it was to swallow from an inquisition of Saints fans who all asked one thing - what happened? How could a team that last year pounded Grant Thomas' charges through the midfield in such intimidating fashion in their Round 12 MCG clash and then repeated the dose in the Elimination Final go through such a rapid decline and be so pathetic?

More soul-searching and more despair.

By Tuesday night, the lady in my life took control and forced me to watch Dancing with the Stars in order to get my thoughts away from Friday night's disaster and thereby restore my life back to some semblance of order

This tactic failed dismally. I fell asleep in the middle of the programme only to dream of dancers swirling around in bright, red and blue gear. They were doing the tango but this version was badly rehearsed and poorly choreographed. Apparently, the tango originated in South America and is a dance with varying rhythms and changing tempos from slow, slow to quick, quick and then slow again resembling the majestic jaguar about to pounce on its prey. In my nightmare/dream however, these guys were more like another South American native animal, the sloth. They simply couldn't change out of a slow, slow gear and that was half the problem - there was dancing going on but there were certainly no stars out there!

Wednesday morning saw me wakening in a cold sweat. My dream had ended at some time during the night when I handballed my pillow at the floor releasing a thousand white feathers. One white feather would have been enough!

St. Kilda's pathetic effort at the Gabba on Thurday night didn't make me feel any better but, at least by now, I was coming to terms with my team's ineptitude. I was beginning to set my sights at a point a lot lower than where they were a week earlier.

I accept now that Round 1 of 2007 was a reality check for the Melbourne Football Club. Like everything else in life, football form is an illusion, like the tango. It's just that some dance it better than others and my team can't dance all that well. Nor can it play good football at the moment and that is why Easter Monday's bottom-of-the-ladder battle is being hailed in some quarters as the fight for the first selection at the National Draft. You might say that's a trifle unkind considering the stage of the year but, from what we've seen in terms of enthusiasm and improvement from some of the other clubs in the competition, these two are eminently deserving of the early nomination.

THE GAME: Hawthorn v Melbourne at the MCG - 9 April 2007 at 2.10pm

HEAD TO HEAD:

Overall: Hawthorn 72 wins Melbourne 74 wins

At the G: Hawthorn 32 wins Melbourne 36 wins

Since 2000: Hawthorn 5 wins Melbourne 5 wins

The Coaches: Clarkson 1 Daniher 1

MEDIA:

TV: Channel 10 at 3pm (delayed telecast).

RADIO: 3AW, SEN, TripleM, ABC774.

THE BETTING: Melbourne to win $1.55 - Hawthorn to win $2.30.

LAST TIME THEY MET: Melbourne 20.16.136 defeated Hawthorn 9.7.61 at the MCG in Round 8, 2006.

David Neitz broke Norm Smith's club all time goal kicking record and finished with six goals. The Demon midfield was right in the frame with Brock McLean, Travis Johnstone and James McDonald the standouts. Meanwhile, the Hawks were an undisciplined rabble and Melbourne ran away to record its biggest victory of the season.

THE TEAMS:

HAWTHORN

Backs: Danny Jacobs Trent Croad Brent Guerra

Halfbacks: Brad Sewell Stephen Gilham Grant Birchall

Centreline: Rick Ladson Sam Mitchell Chance Bateman

Half forwards: Shane Crawford Lance Franklin Tim Clarke

Forwards: Mark Williams Tim Boyle Clinton Young

Followers: Simon Taylor Luke Hodge Jordan Lewis

Interchange (from): Campbell Brown Robert Campbell Ben Dixon Xavier Ellis Ben McGlynn Michael Osborne Jarryd Roughead

In: Brown Crawford Dixon

Out:

MELBOURNE:

Backs: Nathan Brown Nathan Carroll Matthew Whelan

Half backs: Daniel Ward Jared Rivers Daniel Bell

Centreline: Brent Moloney James McDonald Brad Green

Half forwards: Cameron Bruce Brad Miller Russell Robertson

Forwards: Mark Jamar David Neitz Aaron Davey

Followers: Jeff White Nathan Jones Travis Johnstone

Interchange: Matthew Bate Simon Godfrey Chris Johnson Paul Wheatley

Emergencies: Clint Bizzell Adem Yze

In: Brown Rivers Wheatley

Out: McLean (fractured foot) Holland Yze

Umpires: Brett Rosebury Damien Sully Shaun Ryan

THE GAME PLAN:

As the ladder suggests, Hawthorn performed as miserably as Melbourne did in its opening round encounter. The Hawks however, have more reason to believe that they can turn things around quickly.

Hawthorn's defeat at the hands of the Brisbane Lions who finished 2006 in disarray and playing miserably, doesn't look so bad in the light of its form against St. Kilda on Thursday night. That the Demons lost to that Saints' rabble however, creates even more doubts as to their own poor form.

The Hawks regain experienced trio Shane Crawford, Campbell Brown and Ben Dixon while the Demons lose Brock McLean (admittedly, he was injured early last week so he didn't have an impact). Hawthorn coach Alastair Clarkson pointed out during the week that the return of this trio would help turn around the club's fortunes by providing it with a lot of experience and some real grunt. Both sides were lacking in this area last week but the Hawks will be hardened after their humiliating loss to Brisbane. Melbourne's inclusions however, add very little to the combination which lost to the Saints apart from the return of Jared Rivers which will help fortify the defence.

Demon coach Neale Daniher will be relying on his charges - particularly those in the midfield - to bounce back after most of his better players drew first up blanks. The coach's reaction to the lack of performance of the mainstays of his side last week was a bit of an understatement.

"We probably had 17 players that struggled," Daniher said.

Seventeen?

In my estimation, the figure was closer to 22 but who's counting?

The other concern - and the main one as far as I'm concerned - is the way in which the Demons are playing the game at the present time.

When the two teams met in their NAB Cup clash earlier this year, Melbourne unveiled its new "run and carry" style of play. The Demons looked unimpressive but at least they were in control until just before three quarter time. After that they simply collapsed under the weight of the added workload necessary to play a game that involved a staggering increase in running with the ball and handballing rather than quick movement by foot. Ultimately, losing by 24 points, the team recorded an unprecedented number of 45 more handballs than kicks. What made things worse for the Demons was that many of the handballs were misdirected and unnecessarily put team mates under pressure.

We were promised some modification to the style over time and an improvement with the return of more of the team regulars but there was little visible change through the preseason and it was still there for all to see against the Saints.

The indications coming from the club were that we would see something a little different this week. Let's pray that we do because so far, the new style has been an unmitigated disaster. Its continued use might somehow help the club perform better later in the season but one wonders whether it will be worth it to come home like a steam train with consecutive victories in the last four rounds if we finish in 12th place overall with eight wins in total.

The fact of the matter is that the same failings that were evident in Melbourne's Nab Cup debacle were repeated in the season opener. That very little changed in the intervening month and not much happened during the course of the first game indicates that the coach and the players are very slow on the uptake and that is bad news for the club, at least in the short term.

In order for Melbourne to win this game its players will need to collectively revive their skills in virtually every facet and adopt an entirely different attitude towards their game. Given the slow response to this problem area from both players and coaching staff over the past month or so, I simply cannot see sufficient turnaround in the space of ten days to get them up, even against Hawthorn.

The likes of Hodge, Mitchell and Crawford should hold the ascendancy in the middle and Melbourne will have to find something to put a stop to Lance Franklin who had the Demons mesmerised in the Nab Cup. If Trent Croad can hold David Neitz, the Demons will be in big trouble.

As indicated earlier, the Demons have gained a reputation of being notoriously slow starters. During the Daniher era, his team has been a finalist on six occasions out of nine seasons but in only two of those years (2002 and 2005) did they open in convincing fashion with a victory. The slow start syndrome has struck the club again and while Monday is definitely the day to start dancing, it's hard to do that when you've got two left feet.

I wish I could be proven wrong but on what Melbourne has dished up so far this year, you wouldn't touch it with a barge pole.

Hawthorn by 27 points.