RUN AND BECOME

[Demonland 66,956]

by The Demonland Team

The Oracle's discovery ...

When I realised we were already a third of the way through the home and away season I was quite taken aback at how quickly the season was moving along. After giving it some more thought however, it dawned on me that there have been so many developments packed into the early stages of this year's marathon race for the AFL Holy Grail that there really is no reason to be surprised at all.

The Demons made a poor start to their 2006 journey but have managed to claw their way back into some sort of contention. Putting it in long distance running terms, they stumbled at the gun, fell way behind the pack in the first few kilometres built up some momentum as they passed the 10-kilometre mark and now, approaching 13 kilometres, they're stringing back the lead runners ...

Melbourne's four wins on the trot have been eye opening. The team is improving with each week. It's showing more durability, greater resolve and more depth. We've seen the emergence of the younger group and an extra bonus with the introduction of the Byronator. Pickett joined the club after enjoying premiership success at North Melbourne and Port Adelaide and, in his brief time here, has already given the team a harder edge. The younger talent introduced in the first seven weeks - Clint Bartram, Matthew Warnock, Matthew Bate and Lynden Dunn - is demonstrating more than just the word "potential". This new look Demon side has picked up some handy scalps in the past month and things appear to be on the up and up.

But not so fast!

After all, this is a marathon race. We haven't reached half way mark and recent experience should warn us that, as we move deeper into the race, hidden dangers lurk behind every corner. Then there's "the wall" - that impenetrable barrier that often emerges at the most unexpected of times and delivers a sledgehammer blow to unsuspecting runners.

We've hit the wall before. It came from almost out of nowhere in Round 19 of 2004 after Melbourne had grabbed top place on the ladder and again, after the Queens Birthday victory over Collingwood last year and yet again in this year's warm up race in Adelaide. In every instance, the team had been travelling along nicely before hitting the wall and dashing our hopes and of course, our enjoyment of the game.

The chances of hitting the wall again cannot be discounted. The side that the Demons put on the park last week had 10 players with less than 50 games AFL experience; three of them were 18 year olds. They might have been impressive but, as Garry Lyon pointed out in the Herald Sun this week, it's unrealistic to expect young players in the early stages of their careers to sustain a high level of performance consistently in their formative years at this level. And before we get too carried away, let's not forget that the win against the Dockers was the team's first in eleven months by a margin of more than 10 points!

When you have a young players coming through into the senior ranks, it's important that they are handled properly and not overextended physically. It's interesting to note how promising newcomers Matthew Bate and Lynden Dunn have been managed by the club in terms of their introduction into the senior team and then in time on the ground in these early matches.

There's a plan and a purpose to the way every individual is managed in modern football. We are dealing with a team game and each playing unit is made up of a number of different members who are all working together to achieve specific aims.

Proper list management is so important in this day and age but even with all that, form can be a very fickle thing and we only need look back to last year when the Demons played the Hawks in the corresponding Round 8 at the MCG. Melbourne held second place on the ladder with a 5/2 win loss ratio and a percentage of 118.2 while Hawthorn was 15th with just one win and a percentage of 88.3. The problem from the Demons' point of view was that they approached the game with the expectation of an easy victory against a lowly opponent. At least that's how it looked from my vantage point!

The result was that they were taken by surprise and smashed by a determined group that took control of the rucks and the midfield and before you knew it, they trailed by six goals at the first break - a large enough deficit to force it to play catch up football without much success for the rest of the day. The game can hurt you badly if you take your opponent for granted.

The Melbourne team of 22 players that runs out tomorrow night will have a much different look about it to the one that succumbed to Hawthorn last year. When you reflect on it though, in a team sport, it's not just the personnel who run out on any given week who are important. It's your entire list and a whole team of people in the background from the coach to the bootstudder who help achieve success over the long journey.

Sam the Stats Man figures it all out ...

Let's take another look at the club's list to see where each individual stands. The following list of players is in alphabetical order and it sets out where they were during VFL Round 7/VFL Round 6: -

MFC - BARTRAM, Clint - AFL 7 games, 1 goal - a young tagger who has played every game of the season at AFL level. Has collected a few impressive scalps, gets better with every game and now has a Rising Star Award nomination. Not bad for a #60 pick at the 2005 National Draft!

MFC - BATE, Matthew - AFL 3 games, 2 goals, VFL 3 games, 3 goals - has fitted in well at AFL level where he will be a fixture after dominating early with Sandringham.

MFC - BELL, Daniel - AFL 2 games, 0 goals, VFL 1 game, 0 goals, VFL Reserves 1 game, 0 goals - hampered early by a groin injury but has come up the hard way and was impressive in defence against the Dockers.

SFC RESERVES - BIZZELL, Clint VFL Reserves 1 game, 0 goals - played half a game with Sandy reserves last Sunday after a long lay off with a calf injury that took its time healing.

SFC RESERVES - BODE, Jace ® - VFL Reserves 4 games, 0 goals - has had mixed reviews in his four reserves games but has also been hampered by injury. Misses this week through suspension incurred in the reserves against North Ballarat.

INJURED - BROWN, Nathan - AFL 5 games, 2 goals, VFL 1 game 2 goals - was working his way back into some form when he strained his hamstring, a serious injury given his history. Will probably miss two more games and is might have to return through the Zebras.

MFC - BRUCE, Cameron - AFL 7 games, 9 goals - has carried on after a stellar start to the season and, is the early favourite for the club champion. Excelled when he had the leadership role for the Kangaroos game.

SFC - BUCKLEY, Simon - VFL 6 games, 1 goal - impressed early with his pace and skills at Sandringham after missing much of the pre season but has been subdued lately in the tougher conditions. Still a fair way off winning an AFL appearance.

MFC - CARROLL, Nathan - AFL 7 games, 1 goal - had some tough assignments to date and continues to grow in stature as a key defender after a so-so start.

MFC - DAVEY, Aaron - AFL 7 games, 14 goals - had a very good start, was subdued for a little while and has blitzed in recent games. Leading the club's goalkicking.

MFC - DUNN, Lynden - AFL 2 games, 3 goals VFL 4 games, 9 goals - is being eased into AFL and is fitting in well. In his limited time, he has performed like a seasoned campaigner rather than a raw, inexperienced young forward.

INJURED - FERGUSON, Ryan - AFL 2 games, 0 goals - his healing is progressing better than expected after colliding with Colin Sylvia and sustaining broken ribs and a punctured lung in Round 2 at the Telstra Dome. The latest club injury report suggests he'll be back in a week or so.

SFC RESERVES - GIANFAGNA, Andre ® - VFL Reserves 5 games, 2 goals - very much an outside player with great pace who has been pressing for senior selection at Sandringham

MFC - GODFREY, Simon - AFL 4 games, 0 goals - VFL 2 games, 2 goals - a shock selection for Melbourne against the Swans after some uninspiring form with the Zebras, Godders has yet to play in a losing team this year. Hasn't really done much for the Demons but must be considered a lucky charm or something.

MFC - GREEN, Brad - AFL 7 games, 4 goals - is having a good season after being tried in a doing well in a number of different roles including as a tagger. Captained the side to that great win over the Cats.

INJURED/RESTED? - HOLLAND, Ben - AFL 2 games, 0 goals - VFL 2 games 1 goal, VFL Reserves 1 game 2 goals – outstanding for Sandringham in two senior and one reserve game on comeback from injury. Just went at AFL level and dropped back to the VFL last week but did not take his place in the team.

SFC - HUGHES, Daniel ® - VFL 5 games 9 goals, VFL Reserves 1 game 3 goals - a jumping jack whose strong marking is creating an impression in his first rookie season. His six-goal effort against Tasmania a fortnight ago was special.

MFC - JAMAR, Mark - AFL 6 games 3 goals - is getting more and more game time in combination with numero uno ruckman Jeff White and is beginning to look and feel more at home in this company.

SFC - JOHNSON, Chris - AFL 1 game 0 goals, VFL 4 games 1 goals - after disappointing against the Bulldogs, went to Carrara as an emergency and then returned for some game time to the Zebras where he has been absolutely brilliant.

INJURED - JOHNSON, Paul - AFL 2 games 2 goals, VFL 2 games 0 goals - failed to impress in Round 1 but fought his way back with some good form at Zebraland only to sustain a bad shoulder injury at the SCG. Currently recovering, he is said to be 3 weeks away from playing again.

MFC - JOHNSTONE, Travis - AFL 7 games, 4 goals - shows greater maturity these days and is slowly working his way up to his best form and that spells "danger" to all opposition teams.

SFC - JONES, Nathan - VFL 6 games, 3 goals - a hard at it inside midfielder, Jones is getting his education in the game at Sandy and it’s only a matter of time before he gets his opportunity at the higher level.

MFC - MCDONALD, James - AFL 7 games, 1 goal - hardworking, unspectacular but so important in the midfield.

MFC - MCLEAN, Brock - AFL 5 games, 4 goals - has been super impressive after an injury plagued pre season and is reinvigorating the midfield with his solid unrelenting attack on the football, good foot skills and excellent decision making.

MFC - MILLER, Brad - AFL 6 games, 1 goal - has been moved between CHF and CHB without setting the world on fire although showing signs of steadier form.

MFC - MOLONEY, Brent - AFL 5 games, 1 goal - was plagued by injuries through the pre season and has not replicated last year's form.

SFC - MOTLOP, Shannon - AFL 1 game, 0 goals, VFL 6 games, 3 goals - has lost form after a promising pre season and is languishing in the VFL.

SFC - NEAVES, Shane ® - VFL 4 games, 1 goal, VFL Reserves 2 games, 0 goals - steady in the ruck after being called up to VFL senior ranks.

MFC - NEITZ, David - AFL 5 games, 10 goals - a hip flexor injury slowed his assault on a couple of important and long standing club records. A welcome return last week when he was workmanlike but if he can hit some form and hold more of his marks, the team’s prospects would be enhanced considerably.

SFC RESERVES - NEVILLE, Heath - VFL Reserves 4 games, 0 goals - missed the entire pre season with OP and has only shown glimpses of potential in his four games at VFL reserves level to date.

SFC - NEWTON, Michael - VFL 2 games, 1 goal, VFL Reserves 4 games, 6 goals - slowly starting to make an impression at Sandringham although still very much a project player.

INJURED - NICHOLSON, Alistair - VFL 1 game, 0 goals - fast becoming the forgotten man at the club after a foot injury struck him down in Sandy's first game. Due to be tested this week but might have to come back through Sandringham reserves as their seniors have a bye.

MFC - PICKETT, Byron - AFL 7 games, 2 goals - has had a major influence in the past month with his strength and aggression instilling fear into the hearts of the opposition.

MFC - READ, Phil - VFL 6 games, 3 goal - more than useful at Sandringham but unable to break into the Melbourne line up.

MFC - RIVERS, Jared - AFL 5 games, 0 goals, VFL 1 game, 0 goals - superb in defence after coming back from and an elbow injury.

MFC - ROBERTSON, Russell - AFL 7 games, 12 goals - a nagging knee injury held him back early but he appears ready for a big game in the very near future.

SFC - SMITH, Nicholas - VFL 6 games, 5 goals - has played ruck and in key forward and defensive positions and impressed the most on the ball.

INJURED - SYLVIA Colin - AFL 6 games, 2 goals - has only shown glimpses of the form that made him such a highly rated recruit a couple of years back. Goes in hard and suffered bruised ribs against Geelong. Will miss again this week.

SFC - WARD, Daniel - AFL 3 games, 0 goals, VFL 4 games, 2 goals - another who is doing well in the VFL but finding it hard to break back into the AFL team.

SFC - WARNOCK, Matthew ® - AFL 1 games, 0 goals, VFL 3 games, 0 goals - possibly gained his promotion a little too early after a thumb injury. Now playing steady football for Sandy.

INJURED - WHEATLEY, Paul - AFL 4 games, 1 goal - missed the first round with injury and was just starting to hit his straps when his hamstring went against the Kangaroos. Due back in the next week or so.

MFC - WHELAN, Matthew - AFL 6 games, 0 goals - our underrated star still hasn't shown his absolute best but has been very good lately.

MFC - WHITE, Jeff - AFL 7 games, 4 goals - a patchy season to date but is starting to show the benefits of a lighter workload as his offsider Mark Jamar takes on a greater share of the rockwork.

MFC - YZE, Adem - AFL 7 games, 11 goals - after struggling early has come back to top form with a vengeance. Has shown his value as a forward with 11 goals.

The Oracle says it's another 8 pointer tomorrow night ...

What seems obvious from the above - and we accept that it's by no means a deep and probing study of the list - is that Melbourne is getting better equipped to handle the ups and downs of football at elite level. There are some handy footballers currently not in the main side; some good players out injured or cooling their heels at Sandringham. The added player depth means there is greater competition for places in the team and this alone could ensure that the team does not fall away in performance as it did, for example, in last year's game against Hawthorn.

Tomorrow night is yet another vital eight pointer for Melbourne. A win puts the club into top four contention while a loss means a struggle to hold a place in the top eight. It's that vital a game - one simply cannot contemplate defeat this week given that the team's following game happens to be against the Eagles at Subiaco.

Scoop Junior looks at the danger men ...

I'm looking forward to tomorrow night. Melbourne-Hawthorn games are always unpredictable and the underdog has often won in the past.

Last year's game was lost in the first term so preventing that flying start is important.

I think we can expect them to be Williams-centric and direct many attacks through him. He was a lone hand last week and has looked their most dangerous forward the whole year. I've seen this bloke a fair bit - no one is going to stop him if he gets out in space and the ball is delivered well. The only way to stop him is to:

(1) pressure the ball carrier to ensure he doesn't receive a good kick out in space.

(2) have Jared Rivers or another defender zone off to block up the space. We've done this well in recent weeks so there's no reason why we can't do it again.

Because no one is going to beat him if the above isn't achieved, I'd rather us go with Carroll to ensure he gets no cheap marks one-on-one. Whelan is not good enough in the air and Bell may just lack a bit of defensive nous at the moment. Carroll is a much better one-on-one negator.

Despite his selection, it's uncertain whether Crawford will play and if he does, will he be fully effective given his shin injury? I think the midfield focus will probably be on Mitchell and Hodge.

I'd start Mark Jamar in the ruck and get him to jump into Everitt a few times. Hodge has excellent core strength and can shrug tackles, so we need a strong tackler on him - perhaps Macca. Would consider starting Byron Pickett in the middle to give some extra strength/grunt in there.

Another player who has slipped under the radar has been Guerra. Can hurt with his foot skills so I'd be mindful of him. He has found quite a bit of the ball this year.

Hawthorn is pretty strong around the ball, so hopefully we can match them in that department and get the ball to the outside. They don't have the raw talent of some our outsiders and this is where we can hurt them.

The game ...

HAWTHORN v MELBOURNE

THE TEAMS

HAWTHORN

B: Jacobs Dawson Sewell

HB: Smith Roughead Guerra

C: Bateman Mitchell Vandenberg

HF: Clarke Boyle Brown

F: Dixon Williams Miller

FOLL: Everitt Hodge Crawford

IC: Birchall Campbell Kane Ladson

EMG: Lewis Ries Taylor

IN: Crawford Jacobs

OUT: Lewis Young

MELBOURNE

B: Bate Carroll Whelan

HB: Yze Rivers Bell

C: Green Bruce McLean

HF: Robertson Miller Davey

F: Jamar Neitz Pickett

FOLL: White Moloney Johnstone

I/C: Bartram Dunn Godfrey McDonald

EMG: C Johnson Holland Read

NO CHANGE

Field umpires: Vozzo Kennedy Stevic

Where & When: MCG, 7.40pm, Friday 19 May 2006

TV & Radio: Channel Nine, 3AW, Triple-M, ABC Radio

Head to Head: Played - 145, Hawthorn 72, Melbourne 73

Last Time they met: Hawthorn 19.14.128 defeated Melbourne 13.11.89 in Round 8, 2005, at The MCG

The betting: Hawthorn $3.25, Melbourne $1.30

Whispering Jack has the final say ...

We'll win and win well.