THE REVERSAL OF FORTUNES

THE REVERSAL OF FORTUNES by JVM

One of the common practices when writing up previews of games is to go back to the last time the competing teams met each other but in the case of games between Melbourne and Hawthorn, there’s been such a sameness of late from one year to another that one need hardly bother. Apart from a game played in the wet at the MCG near the end of the 2010 season (a 21 point loss that some might have described as “gallant”), most of the others have been severe blowouts.

When the two teams last met it was a nine goal win to the Hawks but my impression of that game was that on top of being totally dominant for most of the game, they were being charitable and never got out of second gear as they strangled a second rate opposition that was heading in the direction of a steep cliff with a steep and perilous descent awaiting (of course, that was still six days away). The details of that last encounter can be seen below.

But the thing that I want to discuss here is a game that produced a happier outcome for the Demons almost six years ago to the day. It was also a Friday night game played at the MCG in the autumn and it was the last time Melbourne beat Hawthorn. The score was 20.16.136 to 9.7.61.

It need not be said that both teams had different line ups at the time. Melbourne’s was:-

Backs Bate Carroll Whelan

Half backs Yze Rivers Bell

Centreline Green Bruce McLean

Half forwards Robertson Miller Davey

Forwards Jamar Neitz Pickett

Followers White Moloney Johnstone

Interchange Bartram Dunn Godfrey McDonald

Emergencies C Johnson Holland Read

Hawthorn came in with this line up:

Backs Jacobs Dawson Sewell

Half backs Smith Roughead Guerra

Centreline Bateman Mitchell Vandenberg

Half forwards Clarke Boyle Brown

Forwards Dixon Williams Miller

Followers Everitt Hodge Crawford

Interchange Birchall Campbell Kane Ladson

Emergencies Lewis Ries Taylor

The game was an absolute massacre. The Hawks tried to unsettle the Demons with their aggression but Byron Pickett had some ideas of his own.

Once the initial heat dies down, it was the experience of Melbourne that told. Scoop Junior wrote in his report for Demonland that the Demon midfield “dominated when the game opened up to the outside. Through superior class, skill and deeper rotations, the Demons made Hawthorn look second rate at times. Brock McLean and James McDonald were keys in tight, winning plenty of ball at the stoppages, while Cameron Bruce, Travis Johnstone and Brent Moloney provided great drive.” David Neitz who always produced the goods against the Hawks booted six goals and Melbourne was untroubled to record another win and to establish its place in the top eight after opening the season with three defeats. The team made the finals that year, beat St. Kilda in an elimination final and ended up the best performed of the Victorian clubs. On the other hand, Hawthorn finished well of the pace.

We all know what happens next – the reversal of fortunes. The Hawks, with a young emerging side rose swiftly up the ladder in 2007 and by 2008 had pulled off the seemingly impossible – a premiership well ahead of time. The Demons, with an older more experienced side fell into a heap. By the end of 2007 it was well inside the bottom quartile of the competition, flattered by a final round win against a tanking Carlton. A win that would prove costly at a future time. The collapse was complete twelve months later.

And so the teams meet again on a Friday night in autumn with the Hawks at their peak and the Demons still languishing. It would seem that it’s almost an unfair contest but, as history showed back then, situations and tiems can change rapidly. Is it possible that waiting in the wings for Melbourne there’s a potential Buddy or Cyril who can lift the team to great heights? Time will tell.

THE GAME Melbourne v Hawthorn at the MCG Friday 11 May 2012 at 7.50 pm.

HEAD TO HEAD

Overall Melbourne 74 wins Hawthorn 80 wins

At MCG Melbourne 35 wins Hawthorn 39 wins

Since 2000 Melbourne 5 wins Hawthorn 14 wins

The Coaches Neeld 0 wins Clarkson 0 wins

MEDIA

TV – Fox Footy Channel, Channel 7 7:30 pm (live)

RADIO – SEN ABC774 3AW Triple M

THE BETTING Melbourne $13.00 to win Hawthorn $1.03 to win.

THE LAST TIME THEY MET

Hawthorn 20.12.132 defeated Melbourne 12.6.78 in Round 18, 2011 at the MCG

It was all pretty much routine fare for a Melbourne v Hawthorn encounter of late. The Hawks overpowered the Demons early and floated away to the easiest of wins. Buddy kicked his five, Cyril got a few, Sam Mitchell and Jordan Lewis were unstoppable in the midfield and Melbourne was fairly innocuous.

Brad Green flew the flag with four goals (but wasn’t so convincing the next day On the Couch) and Jeremy Howe undelined his potential with a few. Stef Martin and Nathan Jones did well and the rest … pffft!

THE TEAMS

MELBOURNE

Backs James Frawley Jared Rivers Clint Bartram

Half backs Jack Grimes Colin Garland Cale Morton

Centreline Ricky Petterd Brent Moloney Jack Trengove

Half forwards Nathan Jones Mitch Clark Jamie Bennell

Forwards Jeremy Howe Colin Sylvia Aaron Davey

Followers Mark Jamar James Magner Jordie McKenzie

Interchange Rohan Bail Matthew Bate Jack Fitzpatrick  Tom McDonald

Emergencies Lynden Dunn Joel Macdonald Luke Tapscott

In Jamie Bennell Jack Fitzpatrick Ricky Petterd 

Out Lynden Dunn James Sellar (calf) Luke Tapscott

HAWTHORN

Backs Benjamin Stratton Stephen Gilham Brent Guerra

Half backs Matt Suckling Ryan Schoenmakers Grant Birchall

Centreline Jordan Lewis Sam Mitchell Brendan Whitecross

Half forwards Luke Breust Lance Franklin Isaac Smith

Forwards Michael Osborne Jarryd Roughead Cyril Rioli

Followers David Hale Shaun Burgoyne Brad Sewell

Interchange Paul Puopolo Shane Savage Liam Shiels Clinton Young 

Emergencies Kyle Cheney Bradley Hill Broc McCauley

In Stephen Gilham Clinton Young

Out Jarrad Boumann Luke Hodge (knee)

Umpires B Rosebury R Findlay J Bannister

AT BEST

I read in one of the media previews of the game the comment that "Melbourne will need to be at its best to upset Hawthorn on Friday night."

No kidding?

The Hawks are going into the game as red hot favourite to win despite the fact that they're not travelling as well as might have been expected this season, remembering that on the eve of the season they were highly fancied among many of the experts to win this year's flag.

And they might still do that after showing a dramatic lift in tempo last week against their bitter rivals, the Saints, who have always had the wood on them, particularly in their Saturday night fixtures. Last week, Hawthorn was particularly ruthless against St. Kilda with Cyril Rioli kicking six goals and Buddy Franklin returning five. The Hawks will be eager to not only win the four points but also to build up percentage given the tightness of the competition and their unflattering start of only two wins in the first five games. 

Melbourne already has nightmares about its recent record against this opposition and these are not confined to thoughts of their regular season reminiscences alone. These teams often meet in the pre season and the outcomes have been equally disasterous with this year proving no exception. Way back in February, the Demons gave Mark Neeld his first win in what remotely resembled a game of football when they bested the Magpies in a tightly fought NAB Cup game at Etihad Stadium. Hopes were high among the Demon faithful that this year was truly going to be something different under the new coaching regime. The midfield was strong in the contest for the ball, the defence stood up and the forward line functioned as perfectly as one could expect in the month of February.

A week later and all that was shattered. The team has barely come close to looking like a cohesive unit in the past three months apart from some momentary glimmers in recent weeks but, to be competitive against the might of Hawthorn?

I think not.

There is so little for one to hang the hat on as the team goes into battle against an implacable foe. Despite the comment about needing to be at its best to beat them, there has to be a serious doubt about whether the team can even come close to the Hawks at this stage of its development. 

Despite the fact that Melbourne has been showing improvement of late and continues to do well in winning contested possession, it still legs well below its opponents on a week to week basis in winning the uncontested football. At least this week it appears to have acted at selection to address its lack of leg speed which is regarded as one of the factors in explaining this deficiency but that alone will not be enough.

Hawthorn to win by 47 points.