THE DRAFT'S ILL WIND

[Demonland 73,258]

THE DRAFT'S ILL WIND by Whispering Jack

I risk being described as a bit of a naysayer about the coming AFL National Draft but everything I've seen, heard and read about it suggests that the draft pickings are slim and that apart from the new Greater Western Sydney Giants franchise, there will be no real beneficiaries when the clubs meet somewhere in the Harbour City in November to pick their next crop of recruits. The Melbourne Age resident writer on draft matters agrees with me - Talent pool a tad thin. 

I concur with most of what Emma Quayle says except for the "tad thin" part. I reckon it's downright anorexic!

The shallowness of this year's draft pool also impacts on the new boys from the western suburbs of Sydney because, once you get past the first two or three players, there are very few who you can point to and compare with top ten picks of past bumper drafts. 

This stands to reason to some extent because, before this season even started, GWS was given the opportunity to select a dozen of the best 17 year olds who would have otherwise been available for drafting later this year. Names like Jeremy Cameron, Curtley Hampton, Dylan Shiel, Adam Treloar and a few others are already in the new franchise's system and are playing for the Giants in the new NEAFL competition. However, the word from insiders is that even with these few better players, that list nowhere nearly approximates the Gold Goast equivalent from last year. It is also thought that the development of the Suns' list was better enhanced by its participation last year in the stronger VFL competition.

I thought it might be worthwhile at this stage to highlight the situation regarding the order of the 2011 NAB AFL Draft later this year to give an appreciation of some of the concessions available to the Giants:-

2011 draft order

Round One

1. GWS Giants

2. GWS Giants

3. GWS Giants

4. 2011 AFL - 17th

5. GWS Giants

6. 2011 AFL - 16th

7. GWS Giants

8. 2011 AFL - 15th

9. GWS Giants

10. 2011 AFL - 14th

11. GWS Giants

12. 2011 AFL - 13th

13. GWS Giants

14. 2011 AFL - 12th

15. GWS Giants

16. 2011 AFL - 11th

17. 2011 AFL - 10th

18. 2011 AFL - 9th

19. 2011 AFL - 8th

20. 2011 AFL - 7th

21. 2011 AFL - 6th

22. 2011 AFL - 5th

23. 2011 AFL - 4th

24. 2011 AFL - 3rd

25. 2011 AFL - 2nd

26. 2011 AFL - 1st 

The GWS Giants will also have the first choice in every succeeding round of the draft.

The order will change of course. Choices can be traded, there are compensation picks from last year that can be included at the option of clubs holding them and more compensation picks available to clubs that lose players at the end of the year. 

The Giants will also be able to barter players within the State system for picks with other clubs as the Suns did last year.

Then there's the rather ominous rule that gives them access to one uncontracted player per club over two years. I use the word "ominous" advisedly because you would have to be living in a bubble if you weren't aware of the moves by GWS to steal priority draft pick Tom Scully from Melbourne under the rule which is so stacked in favour of GWS that it would be virtually impossible for the Demons or any other club to match financial offers.

In a recent interview with reporter Mark Stevens, AFL CEO Andrew Demetriou indicated that the world won't end if Tom Scully defects to the Greater Western Sydney Giants. True, but Demetriou also "bristled at suggestions it would be a bad look for the game" if he went. He is terribly wrong if he really thinks that way.

Apart from the complex issues on a number of levels about depriving clubs of such young talent before its anywhere near developed, there's the intriguing matter of what compensation would be available to the club should Scully take the money and run to Rooty Hill. 

The Stevens article states:

"Melbourne is likely to get a first round pick, to be taken immediately after its routine first pick, as compensation if Scully walks.

"AFL football operations manager Adrian Anderson yesterday said the AFL would not divert from its formula, despite Scully being a No.1 pick as recently as 2009."

Should that be the case, then it would not only be a "bad look for the game", it would also be a bad look for the administrators involved, particularly Demetriou and Anderson who appear to be hopelessly conflicted on the whole matter.

In the first instance, they have the task of ensuring that the GWS Giants enter the competition next year with the capacity to hold their own against the other clubs. On the other hand, they must make a decision on compensation which by any measure of fairness would, in Scully's case, require at least a first selection to be given to Melbourne. 

But Anderson has already pre-judged the issue by stating that the Demons must accept its "formula" although it is understood that provision exists for anomalous situations. As if this  isn't an anomalous situation par excellence?

A mid first round selection is not anywhere near adequate compensation for a first year pick with two years of development invested in him and up to a dozen years of potentially high quality service to be provided in the future.

The same Mark Stevens who wrote this article which concluded that "Demetriou said he went out of his way to avoid knowing if anybody had signed with GWS - and throughout last year also shied away from gaining any Gold Coast information," said yesterday on Triple M's pre-game show that he is now certain that Tom Scully has agreed to go to GWS. Of course, this could well be sheer coincidence but the entire scenario is starting to exude a bad odour. Bad for Scully, bad for the Melbourne Football Club, bad for the new franchise and diabolical for the AFL and its administrators. The draft is bringing an ill wind in the way of the football world.

There is another new concession to GWS which relates to players who turned 17 years of age between 1 January and 30 April, 2011. Such players are able to nominate for a one-off "mini draft" during the 2011 trade period and be traded to another AFL club a year before they would otherwise be eligible as part of GWS's concessions.  GWS can trade up to four players over the next two trade periods.

This is significant because the flip side of the weak draft pool is that the following year's group looks particularly strong. The 2011 NAB AFL Under-18 All Australian team which was announced yesterday highlights this point.

Metro dominate AA selections

Defenders: Jed Anderson (NT), Michael Talia (Vic Metro), Brandon Ellis (Vic Metro), Brad Crouch (Vic Country), Brody Mihocek (Tas), Alex Forster (SA)

Midfield: Billy Longer (Vic Metro), Dom Tyson (Vic Metro), Stephen Coniglio (WA), Jaeger O’Meara (WA), Toby Greene (Vic Metro), Will Hoskin-Elliott (Vic Metro)
 


Forwards: Chad Wingard (SA), Sam Mayes (SA), Lachie Whitfield (Vic Country), Ben Kennedy (SA), Jonathon Patton (Vic Metro), John McKenzie (Tas)

Interchange: Mitchell Grigg (SA), Brodie Grundy (SA), Taylor Adams (Vic Country), Clay Smith (Vic Country)
 


Coach: Rohan Welsh (Vic Metro)


Assistant Coach: Matt Armstrong (TAS)

Only fifteen of the 22 All Australians selected are eligible for the main draft and one, Coniglio, who is considered a certain top three selection, has yet to nominate because he also has a promising future in cricket to consider. Six others are too young for the draft although four of these players can be recruited as 17 year old trades from GWS in the special "mini draft" (while at the same time compromising future drafts). One AA player (Anderson) has already been claimed by GWS as a zone player from the Northern Territory. 

The leading contenders for the "mini draft" were all selected in the AA side. Brad Crouch, Jaeger O’Meara, Ben Kennedy and Brodie Grundy can nominate before 1st August and trading for them promises to be frenetic given that so many clubs have limited ability to regenerate their lists due to the highly compromised situation facing club recruiters this year.

Later: Whispering Jack will reveal his favourite among the young up and comers. Hint: he's a player who won't be drafted in 2011 and his initials are JV!