THE MONKEY

THE MONKEY by JVM

Our former merger partners, the Hawks have imparted so much misery on the Demons in the last four AFL seasons. The teams have met five times in regular season games since the end of 2006 when Melbourne held the dubious distinction of being the leading Victorian club without being good enough to get past semi final week. Hawthorn has comprehensively won every one of those encounters and, for the most part, toyed with its prey in the process. The humiliation even went as far as to apply to their NAB Cup encounters, the first of which signalled a changing of the guard early in 2007.

I recall jumping onto the train to Southern Cross station heading for the game at the place then known as the Telstra Dome. I recall feeling rather smug about things as the doors to the carriage slid open and I alighted on my way to the game. Melbourne had the usual number of missing stars but I was confident that the side it was putting out on the park that day would be good enough to overcome the brash, youthful opponent. The doors snapped shut and we were on our way to a depressing trip that would last for almost four seasons of mediocrity. If only we had known!

The game itself opened well for the Demons and, even in the shadows of three quarter time, they held onto a handy lead before a couple of nine pointers and an electricity-charged burst from an emerging Buddy turned the tables.

Well, it was only a pre season practice game and we would fare better when the some of the more experienced players were back in harness. There was no need to worry because the pundits had us pegged for a top four finish and, anyway, who wanted to win that godforsaken excuse for a Mickey Mouse competition?

A month or so later and the team crashed in the opening round against the Saints losing Brock McLean and Matthew Whelan to injury along the way. Hawthorn was our Round 2 opponent; a team on the up and up. We were on a downward spiral. Promising young defender Clint Bartram did a knee at training before the game and we lost Neita and Robbo in the 22 point loss that followed. After that, things only got worse and we finished the season with a stand in coach winning the last game of the season in a horrendous contest against Carlton who gained the big draft prize for simply losing.

The opening game of a new season under a new coach in Dean Bailey brought us the 2008 nightmares. The reality of the task of reconstructing a team from the very bootstraps had well and truly set in by quarter time as the Hawks with their rolling zones, their pace and run and their total superiority across the board destroyed us by 104 points. What a way to start a new season under a new coach?

Things didn't get better against the Bulldogs the following week and then it was off to Skilled Stadium. Thanks to the vagaries of the programme drawn by some sadistic bastard at the AFL, we were drawn to play a return match against the Hawks in Round 9. The Demons were lifted by the retirement of long standing skipper and the club's only 300 gamer David Neitz and put on a good show before succumbing by 21 points. Best for Melbourne was a young man touted by many as the future captain, Brock McLean. By the end of that miserable season, a new board was running the club which now had won a draft prize of its own...and a wooden spoon. Meanwhile, the rising young Hawks had achieved the biggest prize of them all.

The sadist at the AFL decided to give Melbourne a NAB Cup opener against the reigning regular season premier for the second year in a row sending it to Hawthorn’s home away from home in Launceston where the Hawks were expected to have a picnic in the park. It didn't quite turn out that way. The Demons were fantastic, were ahead all day and held a 5 goal lead at the final break before a Roughead led recovery saw more misery visited upon them - this time in the form of a one point defeat. It was a better effort and, just perhaps, we really were on our way up?

No such luck really as any improvement was marginal. When the Dees met the Hawks in Round 9, 2009 they had managed to win just one game on the way to a second wooden spoon. Their opponents were going through a post flag slump but were still good enough to win with relative ease, although Colin Sylvia was in career best form and the fast-finishing Redlegs got to within 22 points at the end.

The dawn of a new season with lashings of new young talent was supposed to bring new hope but Melbourne duly disappointed with yet another frightful performance against Hawthorn in Round 1 of this year. The monkey was still on our backs.

THE GAME Hawthorn v Melbourne at the MCG Sunday 15 August 2010 at 2.10pm.

HEAD TO HEAD

Overall Hawthorn 76 wins Melbourne 74 wins

At MCG Hawthorn 36 wins Melbourne 35 wins

Since 2000 Hawthorn 9 wins Melbourne 5 wins

The Coaches Clarkson 4 wins Bailey 0 wins

MEDIA

TV Channel 7 3.00pm (delayed telecast)

RADIO Triple M 3AW

THE BETTING Hawthorn to win $1.71 Melbourne to win $2.36

LAST TIME THEY MET Hawthorn 17.15.117 defeated Melbourne 8.13.61 in Round 1, 2010, at the MCG

The Hawks deflated the Demons and their hopeful fans as only the Hawks can do. The fans barely had time to sit down before it was raining Hawthorn goals in a manner reminiscent of the debacle in the same round two years earlier when Dean Bailey made his coaching debut. Thankfully, Buddy Franklin was sitting it out after an indiscretion late in the season before. By half time, it was ten goals to one but thankfully, Melbourne regrouped and played a much better second half but things were already looking grim with the club back in its customary position at the bottom of the ladder.

THE TEAMS

HAWTHORN

Backs Brent Guerra Stephen Gilham Thomas Murphy

Half backs Ben Stratton Josh Gibson Grant Birchall

Centreline Chance Bateman Sam Mitchell Rhan Hooper

Half forwards Jordan Lewis Lance Franklin Shaun Burgoyne

Forwards Michael Osborne Jarryd Roughead Wayde Skipper

Followers Brent Renouf Luke Hodge Brad Sewell

Interchange Campbell Brown Xavier Ellis Carl Peterson Brendan Whitecross

Emergencies Rick Ladson Jarryd Morton Garry Moss

In Campbell Brown Rhan Hooper Carl Peterson Wayde Skipper Brendan Whitecross

Out Jarryd Morton Garry Moss Matt Suckling Simon Taylor (all omitted) Clint Young (soreness)

MELBOURNE

Backs Colin Garland Jared Rivers Clint Bartram

Half backs Joel Macdonald James Frawley Rohan Bail

Centreline Tom Scully James McDonald Cameron Bruce

Half forwards Jamie Bennell Jack Watts Austin Wonaeamirri

Forwards Liam Jurrah Brad Green Colin Sylvia

Followers Mark Jamar Lynden Dunn Aaron Davey

Interchange (from) Paul Johnson Nathan Jones Jordie McKenzie Jack Trengove

Emergencies Brad Miller Cale Morton Matthew Warnock

No change

WE OWE THEM ... BUT

Gone are the days when appeals to the raw emotions are good enough to get a team up to beat another at this level - the clubs and the players are all far too professional for that sort of thing.

Today, you win games with skill, a bit of brawn and a lot of brains. Science also plays a major role in the game outcomes.

Recently, we've seen clubs like Collingwood increasing the focus on sports science as an important facet in their football programmes.

Rotations, recovery practices, pre season training at altitude have all been integral parts of the Magpie surge that has seen them move to flag favouritism this year.

The Hawks have been something else this year. After crushing the Demons in Round 1, they went into a slump losing the next six matches and falling down to the foot of the competition ladder. They were unconvincing in their second win of the season in Round 8 against the then winless Tigers and just fell across the line to win by three points in a poor standard affair.

It might be mere coincidence but statisticians reveal that the Richmond game marked a dramatic increase in the number of interchanges per game adopted by the Hawks. Their rotation numbers skyrocketed to record AFL levels in excess of the 150s and their fortunes surged as they started winning.

The Hawks moved upward to a point where we thought they would burst their way into the top four by season's end. They had virtually no injury problems and their form was almost good enough to get over the line against the Cats in a high standard contest a little over a month ago.

More lately, their fortunes have nosedived and, after watching helplessly as the Saints snatched two premiership points in dramatic circumstances three weeks ago, they ventured interstate on consecutive weeks where they played a lacklustre brand of football to succumb to Port Adelaide and Sydney. No longer a top four prospect, a weary Hawthorn has reverted to its early season form and let's face it - they've overcooked themselves and have simply run out of steam.

This is not a good time for Hawthorn to come up against a rampant Melbourne.

Let's look at the teams' relative form lines over the past five rounds. It reads -

Hawthorn: LWDLL

Melbourne: WLWWW

Yet it's the Hawks who are favourites to win the game this Sunday. Seven of the eight football experts in The Australian tip them. Three out of every four Herald Sun readers think Hawthorn will finish in front and the bookies like them as well.

But very few have taken any notice of the declining form of the team in brown and gold or of the emerging talent of the young Demon side with their exciting young midfielders and attacking forwards and those talented, fast moving defenders like James Frawley and Colin Garland who are ready to take on the Hawks' twin towers.

It's much like early 2007 but in reverse.

On Sunday, the sliding doors will slam shut and the Demons will finally get the Hawthorn monkey off their backs.

Melbourne by 54 points.