Match Preview - R2 - Collingwood v Melbourne

[DaVe86 0]

Hi guys, I'm back again for another year. I write weekly match previews every week for all Collingwood games. So these are from a Magpie perspective, but the aim is to be as neutral as possible.

Feedback and discussion welcome. Very tough to predict what Melbourne are going to dish up this week

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In my second Match Preview for 2010, I could not be comparing 2 different sides in regards to form, experience and structure. Collingwood demonstrated how dangerous a side it is in 2010 with a resounding 36 point victory against the Bulldogs in round 1, but unfortunately Melbourne disappointed in their Round 1 encounter against an undermanned Hawthorn side.

It’s very easy to lay into Melbourne after such a lousy first half effort last week. However, I always hate facing a team under the spotlight. Melbourne in particular always seems to lift a cog when they play Collingwood. With the scrutiny from the media, Brad Green’s 200th game and the potential that Collingwood might be a little flat after such a big build up to last weeks game, it is very important that the Magpies come out with the same sort of application they brought to last Sundays game.

Let’s look at Melbourne for a moment. I may be the only one who thinks this, but the Dee’s actually had a dig in the first 15 minutes of the game last week. The problem for me was more the complete lack of structure and poor skill level than it was the application of the players. I thought the Dee’s actually had the run of play at the start of the game, but Hawthorn was the team kicking the goals. Once the Hawks got 4 goals up, you could really sense the heads drop of every Melbourne player. I got the sense that they had a real dig early, yet still had not kicked a goal and were getting smacked on the scoreboard, and they lost all their belief. With 1 goal to quarter time, all hope was sapped. To their credit, they came back and won the 2nd half, albeit the tempo of the game totally evaporated and the Hawks went into cruise control.

Now, I’m not having a dig at Bailey, because I actually think he is the right man for the job right now, but he had a poor coaching day on the weekend. I’ll get more into potential tactics for the Demons later in the preview, but it was obvious they were over possessing the football, and they lacked any forward structure. I think there is a bit they can do to rectify this, but they look incredibly undermanned in the midfield. They’ve lost McLean, and Sylvia is out with a jaw injury. They are basically relying on Trengove and Scully to have immediate impact, but this is asking too much of debutants. What’s more, their forward line is missing the dangerous Jurrah and Wonaeamirri, along with Jack Watts. So that puts a bit of perspective on their situation.

On the other hand, Collingwood are fit and firing. The injury list is minimal, and the 22 is incredibly hard to pick. The win against the Doggies was a real credit to Mick Malthouse and his ability to continually adapt. A totally new gameplan was unveiled. For starters, a full ground press was introduced, the corridor was used more, and Didak and Davis spent more time up forward where they belong. The introduction of Ball and Jolly has strengthened the side a lot. Although neither Ball nor Jolly had good games on the weekend, a number of goals came from Jolly hitouts and Ball had 7 tackles. It also allowed Didak and Davis to spend more time up forward with the extra midfielder in the side. I thought Wellingham was also crucial. He added pace to the side and was hard at it. The midfield is missing pace, and that’s why Malthouse has had to use his dangerous forwards through the midfield. If guys like Wellingham and Ben Johnson continue with this sort of the form, the goal-sneaks can stay forward as the midfield has the pace it requires.

Recent History

Collingwood won both encounters last year comfortably in Rounds 2 and 11. In the Round 11 clash, Brad Dick was electrifying with 5 goals and polled 1 vote. Sylvia was Melbournes best with 3 goals and over 30 disposals. He polled 2 votes. Pendlebury was Collingwood’s best with 39 disposals and polled the 3 votes. Didak, Swan and Shaw were all prominent as well in the 66 point victory.

The earlier Round 2 clash was also dominated by Collingwood. Fraser was adjudged best on field, with Didak and Davey rounding out the votes. Swan had 33 disposals and a goal yet didn’t poll. (Yes I’m going to harp on this in previews this year…Swan was robbed). Bruce was good for the Demons.

Prior to 2009 however, the Demons have a fantastic record against Collingwood. They won 4 Queen’s Birthday matches in a row from 2004-2007. Now however, Collingwood have won the last 2.

At the Selection Table

I doubt Collingwood will be making any changes. I was criticised last week for suggesting Beams would not play, yet Leigh Brown and Wellingham would. Though I rate Beams highly, you have to have a look at the team structure. The midfield looks a tad slow with another player like Beams in it. Wellingham was X factor in the first half. Leigh Brown played forward and back which meant we had cover when Minson went forward, and we were able to also have someone to bring the ball to ground for Didak to crumb.

This week, I think Beams should get his run. Perhaps at the expense of Sidebottom. Sidebottom was OK, but was a bit unsure with the ball. I think Beams is further along with his development than Sidebottom and deserves his run now.

My only change: In – Beams, Out – Sidebottom.

Some are suggesting giving Rusling, Reid, Nathan Brown and Dawes a run. Though I would like to get these guys in, the truth is that we have to get the wins on the board first, and the Pies can’t afford to take any team lightly so early in the year. Malthouse will still play his best 22 at this stage of the year.

Melbourne’s selection is slightly tougher. The kids last week were not bad, but their senior players quite horrible.

The truth is that if I were Bailey, I wouldn’t be making a stack of changes. Especially in regards to the kids. He has to give his side the chance to make amends for their first up effort. Find out which guys have the heart to rebound from that loss. But no doubt a few structural changes need to be made.

Everyone is having a go at Strauss, but I feel sorry for the kid. Not many first gamers are entrusted with kicking-in duties. That’s a big ask for a kid who is a bit nervy on debut. Surely you get a more experienced player to take kick-ins. Maybe Bruce or MacDonald who were playing down back.

A few Demons will be pressing for selection. Sylvia may be in line for recall and will face a test this week. Boy do they need him back. Jack Watts may be ready for recall. Guys like Martin or Garland may be rushed in to fill the Key Position voids that Miller and Warnock were unable to hold down last week. Maric and Bartram may be considered as well.

I’d be getting Sylvia, Martin and Maric in. Obviously it depends on Sylvia proving his fitness first as they will not want to risk him. Perhaps Garland in for Warnock as well. Depends on how match fit Garland is. Newton has some good VFL form on his side as well which may earn him a recall up forward. I wonder if Bennell should hold his spot as well. Though he has a bit of pace and talent, I wonder if he is a bit soft for Collingwood’s physical game. They will most likely persist with him.

Ins: Sylvia, Martin, Maric

Outs: Dunn, Spencer, Bate

Martin can backup ruck I suppose, and play forward and back. Maric is at least a talent and forward option whilst Sylvia is a no-brainer. Dunn and Spencer offered nothing.

Tactics

What can Melbourne do?

First of all, Melbourne needs to get their forward line settled.

My first move would be to get Brad Green up there permanently. He is the one guy in the Melbourne list I have a lot of respect for. He was so brave last week. After getting stretchered off following a sickening collision, he was back on before half time and was probably one of his side’s best in the 2nd half.

He really knows how to play a forward role, and his kicking is phenomenal. I’d be structuring the forward line around him.

Miller is on his last chance. His career hangs by a thread. If he is not going to get opportunity up forward, then he has to find other ways to have an impact. I’d be putting him at CHF and telling him to run crash every pack. I’d probably be starting Martin up forward as well. Miller was horrible last week. If he fails this week, then he should be banished to VFL for the rest of the year. The Demons needs a senior player to list, and having a hot wife is not a reason to get a game.

It was good to see Aaron Davey start up forward. I think the Demons need more of this. Getting Maric up there makes them a bit more dangerous as well. At least he can crumb to the contests the talls make. Petterd is a good leading forward and has a real dip.

I liked the look of Scully across half back and this is probably where he should start. Trengove needs to be protected a bit, but will start on the ball. Melbourne really needs Nathan Jones to have a big one. He was quiet last week. He is a tough player with good size, so he needs to insert himself. Following the incident last year with his Dad, I’m sure Jones will be keen to have a big game against Collingwood. Sylvia will also be required to play on the ball straight away.

I think Bruce should play on the dangerous Medhurst, and run off him. Medhurst is prone to allowing his opponent plenty of the ball. I think Bruce has to help out down back, but they definitely need him in the game as well. The other option is to play him on Cloke. Cloke leads high up the ground, so you need someone with pace to go with him. It also means Bruce is kept in the play as opposed to in a back pocket.

Match-ups:

The most important matchup for the Demons I believe is Dane Swan. Looking back through his stats against Melbourne in recent history, it’s simply ridiculous how much of the ball he gets against Melbourne (yet never polls votes). And I don’t want to hear that he is not effective with the ball. Swan was dominant last week. He used the ball well, went forward to kick goals and was the assist to a number of others as well.

The guy is a work-horse, and will punish you if left loose. Leave him alone at your own peril.

Swan v McDonald – The Demons Captain was good last week and was one of the only senior players to step up. I doubt McDonald will have the tank to run with Swan the whole game, so he may need a chop out from Moloney. McDonald maintained Mitchell last week and had 21 disposals of his own.

Medhurst or Cloke v Bruce – As I said above, this seems like a good matchup to me. Bruce can run off Medhurst but should have him covered in the air. Medhurst seems back to his best, and may now be Collingwood’s number 1 forward option. Otherwise they may elect to use Bruce on Cloke for the reasons I said above.

Petterd v Toovey – Petterd is one of Melbourne’s most dangerous forward options. He plays the lead up role, which Toovey will be suited to.

Anthony v Frawley – Frawley is an improving defender. I think his best position is full back however. Jack is not a noted contested mark, so Frawley should be able to break-even there. It is also pretty even on a lead as well, and Jack spends most of his time inside 50.

Leigh Brown v Warnock– Will depend how Melbourne elect to set up down back. If Warnock holds his spot, he’ll go to Brown. Leigh will play forward this week considering the lack of talls for Melbourne. He may be swung down back if Jamar goes there, but Jamar will be needed 90% in the ruck. The other options for Melbourne are Garland or Martin if they are named.

Green v O’Brien – This is a massive matchup for Collingwood. If the Pies can shut down Green, then they are half way there. Green will be pumped up for his 200th and will spend time through the middle if needed. But up forward, Harry’s pace and agility should be a good match for Green.

Davey v Johnson – Ben Johnson is coming off a pretty good game, so will hold his spot. Is most likely to get the job on the dangerous Davey. Harry might get this matchup due to his ability to shut down a player, which would leave Maxwell to get the job on Green.

Stopping Collingwood’s small forwards is going to be the issue for Melbourne.

Didak v Moloney – Didak will most likely go to the forward-line with this matchup. That is because Moloney is a big body and it takes him away from the midfield.

Davis v Bennell – I like this matchup for Collingwood as Davis has experience and size on his side. Bennell looked after Hooper last week to no avail.

If Bruce goes to Cloke, then I think Rivers will go to Medhurst.

The lack of small defensive options may require Cheney to be called up into the senior side.

Ball v Jones – Most likely a head to head matchup.

DaVe’s Soapbox

The issue for the week that I would like to talk about is the inconsistency in the bump rule. I’m not going to get into it in too much detail because quite simply, I don’t understand it. All I can say is that I didn’t see much difference in the Colin Sylvia bump compared to the Malceski bump. The major difference is that Sylvia copped a broken jaw out of it. It’s time the AFL makes an actual statement about it to the public. What is the rule?? Is all head high contact out? Or is it simply when a player runs off the line?

Fantasy Prospects

I’m wishing I put Dane Swan in my team right now. The truth is that I thought Pendlebury would atleast hold for the first few rounds, but he looked a bit short of a gallop last week. Melbourne is one of Swan’s favourite sides, so you would have no hesitation putting the C on Swanny’s name this week. That said, I’m hoping Pendles turns it around this week as he should not get a tag.

Aaron Davey – If you have Davey, then he should play quite well for you this week. Usually gets a bit of the ball against the Pies.

Luke Ball – I think he’ll bounce back this week and get around 25 disposals along with 6 tackles. He and Jolly will both have better games.

Colin Sylvia – Let’s hope for fantasy sake that he is eased back so he drops in price a bit. But I doubt it will be the case. He’ll be left pretty loose by Collingwood and should rack it up.

The Final Wrap Up

Well Melbourne has a huge opportunity to make amends for their Round 1 disappointment. Bailey has promised a tougher Melbourne this week. Let’s hope so for the sake of the game, because Collingwood look in red hot form.

The spotlight will be on the high draft picks as always, but I think all the pressure is on guys like Bruce, Jones, Miller, Moloney and Jamar to lift. Jamar in particular will have his work cut out against Jolly and Fraser.

Ultimately, it’s hard to see Collingwood losing this game. But they should not go in complacent. In my opinion, this game is one of the most important for Collingwood this year. It is equally as important as the Doggies game last week. A shock loss basically undoes all the hard work done last week. If Collingwood is serious about making the top 4, then it has to dispose of the lower ranked teams comfortably.

I will break from tradition this week and tip the Pies.

Collingwood by 40, after a spirited first half. The Pies will have the legs to put the game to bed in the 2nd half. But I think the Dee’s will make a better showing.

By David Natoli

Aka DaVe86