IMPROVING BY NUMBERS

[Demonland 73,140]

Whenever we get desperate for a win, we call in Sam the Stats Man to review a game and bring you his wealth of statistical knowledge.

IMPROVING BY NUMBERS by Sam The Stats Man

Statisticians love facts and figures and I'm grateful to the powers that be on this site for the opportunity I get a couple of times in each year to give you my own stats on the Demons and my take on what the numbers mean.

The short answer is in Melbourne's case is that they mean improvement and, despite the fact that the club's win-loss ratio of 1:7 at this stage of the season exactly matches the figure that applied twelve months ago, I have no hesitation in applying the "I" word to the Melbourne Football Club's performances in 2009.

Match percentages are always a good indicator of a team's performances because its win/loss ratios might obscure the fact that a team might be performing well but losing by narrow margins. The Demons' percentage is still well below the mean average of 100 and this year's current figure of 74.1 remains the lowest in the competition but it's a significant improvement on 2008 and reflects the fact that the club is not experiencing the same thumping defeats of last year. Only two games, against Collingwood (53) and Port Adelaide at AAMI Stadium (57) have seen a Demon defeat in excess of 50 points.

On an individual level, the numbers look much better this year. In 2008 you could hardly find a Melbourne player featuring among the leaders on the various statistical indicator tables. James McDonald was thereabouts on the tackle count but that was just about that.

At this stage of the current season, Aaron Davey heads the kick count at 149 and he's high up on the tally of effective kicks as well. Brent Moloney is celebrating his return to full fitness with some good form : he's sixth on the handballs list with 125 behind the leader Daniel Cross of the Bulldogs with 141 (Gary Ablett who has missed the past two games is second on 137). Second year player Cale Morton sneaks into the top ten lists for marks with 62 while Moloney is equal first with 10 shepherds, one ahead of Clint Bartram in equal third place.

On the debit side of the ledger is the fact that there are no Demons in the top ten for tackles (where are you Junior?) and not surprisingly, the club does not feature in hit outs or clearances from the centre. This highlights Melbourne's pressing need to improve at the stoppages. Last Saturday against the Western Bulldogs which won by just 7 points, the Doggies manages to score 6 goals 3 behinds to the Demons' nothing - a sad indictment on the team's ability to get the ball away from ruck contests and set up scoring opportunities. And that is where the club needs to show some improvement as it takes on the reigning premier and its stellar midfield on Sunday evening.

THE GAME

Hawthorn v Melbourne at the MCG Sunday 24 May 2009 at 4.40pm

HEAD TO HEAD

Overall Hawthorn 74 wins Melbourne 74 wins

At MCG Hawthorn 34 wins Melbourne 35 wins

Since 2000 Hawthorn 7 wins Melbourne 5 wins

The Coaches Eade 2 wins Bailey 0 wins

MEDIA

TV Fox Sports 1 (live)

RADIO SEN ABC

THE BETTING Hawthorn to win $1.15 Melbourne to win $5.00

LAST TIME THEY MET Hawthorn 14.13.97 d Melbourne 12.6.78 Round 9, 2009, at the MCG

Melbourne took the game right up to the Hawks and while it didn't reverse the 100 point thrashing of their first round encounter, the Demons were a much improved outfit. Inspired by their retiring captain David Neitz who addressed the team before the game, Brock McLean and Matthew Bate excelled for Melbourne but Colin Garland was the Demon who came of age this day with a great blanketing performance on Lance Franklin who was restricted to just 3 goals 1 behind – a much inferior result than his average to that point in time.

THE TEAMS

HAWTHORN

Backs Brendan Whitecross Thomas Murphy Brent Guerra

Half backs Beau Dowler Campbell Brown Grant Birchall

Centreline Jordan Lewis Sam Mitchell Beau Muston

Half forwards Mark Williams Lance Franklin Michael Osborne

Forwards Cyril Rioli Jarryd Roughead Garry Moss

Followers Simon Taylor Brad Sewell Chance Bateman

Interchange Robert Campbell Ben McGlynn Jarryd Morton Cameron Stokes

Emergencies Stuart Dew Brent Renouf Travis Tuck

In Beau Muston Cameron Stokes

Out Stuart Dew Travis Tuck

New Beau Muston (Murray U18)

MELBOURNE

Backs Matthew Whelan Matthew Warnock Jared Rivers

Half backs James Frawley Stephan Martin Aaron Davey

Centreline Jack Grimes Colin Sylvia Brock McLean

Half forwards Cale Morton Brad Miller Russell Robertson

Forwards Brad Green Matthew Bate Cameron Bruce

Followers Paul Johnson Brent Moloney James McDonald

Interchange Jamie Bennell Nathan Jones Addam Maric Ricky Petterd

Emergencies Clint Bartram Kyle Cheney Mark Jamar

In Jamie Bennell James Frawley Brad Green Jared Rivers

Out Clint Bartram Kyle Cheney Lynden Dunn Shane Valenti

THE LIST

Melbourne is improving in very small increments and is doing so because that's how things are with young lists I expect the improvement this year to be particularly slow because we are not going to see very much of the cream of this year's crop (picks 1 17& 19) until 2010

With more than one third of the season over here's how the Demons' list stacks up in terms of games and goals:-

BAIL Rohan MFC - 0 games 0 goals CFC Seniors - 2 games 0 goals CFC Reserves - 1 game 0 goals. Missed early games with injury and has come back to Casey where he is putting in some handy performances.

BARTRAM Clint MFC - 8 games 1 goal CFC Seniors - 0 games 0 goals CFC Reserves - 0 games 0 goals. Has plugged away through traumatic times with the passing of his father and is back in town as the team's main go with man.

BATE Matthew MFC - 8 games 10 goals CFC Seniors - 0 games 0 goals CFC Reserves - 0 games0 goals. Has been inconsistent playing up forward but was on song against the Bulldogs with four goals last week.

BELL Daniel MFC - 0 games 0 goals CFC Seniors - 3 games1 goal CFC Reserves - 0 games 0 goals. Given the opportunity to play in the midfield during the preseason Bell was impressive before breaking a thumb in the last practice match Has now had a few games with Casey and is ready to return.

BENNELL Jamie MFC - 7 games 2 goals CFC Seniors - 0 games 0 goals CFC Reserves - 0 games 0 goals. The teenager played the first seven games of the season with the Demons and was rested after playing his best game against the Eagles at Subiaco.

BLEASE Sam MFC - 0 games 0 goals CFC Seniors - 0 games 0 goals CFC Reserves - 0 games 0 goals. The speedy youngster broke an ankle in a playground incident at school before he had his chance to play and won't be seen till next year.

BRUCE Cameron MFC - 8 games 4 goals CFC Seniors - 0 games 0 goals CFC Reserves - 0 games 0 goals. One of the team leaders and a prolific ball winner but he has been struggling recently with his disposal of the football.

BUCKLEY Simon MFC - 1 game 0 goals CFC Seniors - 1 game 0 goals CFC Reserves - 2 games 0 goals. Had groin injury issues after playing in round one and is slowly being nursed through the VFL.

CHENEY Kyle MFC - 4 games 0 goals CFC Seniors - 2 games 0 goals CFC Reserves - 0 games 0 goals. Had an excellent debut game in round 1 before his form fell away a little but fought his way back into the team last week and did well.

DAVEY Aaron MFC - 8 games 3 goals CFC Seniors - 0 games 0 goals CFC Reserves - 0 games 0 goals. A breakout season for the Demon champion whose game has stepped up a notch and is staring at All Australian selection this year.

DUNN Lynden MFC - 6 games 4 goals CFC Seniors - 0 games0 goals CFC Reserves - 0 games0 goals. Missed selection early and seems to be going up and down on the spot career wise at the moment. Dropped for Sunday's game.

FRAWLEY James MFC - 7 games 0 goals CFC Seniors - 0 games 0 goals CFC Reserves – 0 games 0 goals. The club's biggest improver who has shown great poise and dash out of defence.

GARLAND Colin MFC - 1 game 0 goals CFC Seniors - 0 games 0 goals CFC Reserves - 0 games 0 goals. The big improver of 2008 was showing signs of taking even more rapid steps up the ladder but a stress fracture in the leg has abruptly put an end to that probably for the entire season.

GREEN Brad MFC - 4 games 9 goals CFC Seniors - 0 games 0 goals CFC Reserves - 0 games 0 goals. The team's best player until he suffered a broken jaw in the team's only win against the Tigers. Back this week.

GRIMES Jack MFC – 2 games 0 goals CFC Seniors - 3 games 1 goal CFC Reserves - 0 games 0 goals. An injury setback after an impressive pre season has limited him to 2 AFL games but he seems to be slotting into the side beautifully.

HEALEY Rhys * MFC - 0 games 0 goals CFC Seniors - 0 games 0 goals CFC Reserves - 5 games 3 goals. We didn't see much of him the pre season but he has been impressing in the Casey reserves.

HUGHES Daniel * MFC - 0 games 0 goals CFC Seniors - 3 games 6 goals CFC Reserves - 2 games 3 goals. The kid . is doing well in the firsts at Casey and deserves a break after a couple of seasons of debilitating injuries.

JAMAR Mark MFC - 0 games 0 goals CFC Seniors - 1 game 0 goals CFC Reserves - 0 games 0 goals. Played his first game last week with Casey after coming off the long term injury list (stress fracture in the foot) at the end of round 7 and is in line for an early return to the Melbourne side.

JETTA Neville MFC - 5 games 3 goals CFC Seniors - 1 game 1 goal CFC Reserves - 0 games 0 goals. A fair start to a career from a player who has a touch of magic about him and should develop into a handy small man for the club.

JOHNSON Paul MFC - 8 games 3 goals CFC Seniors - 0 games 0 goals CFC Reserves - 0 games 0 goals. Had a tough task in an undermanned ruck division, particularly over the last few weeks. Is showing some potential but is likely to never be more than the backup ruckman at AFL level.

JONES Nathan MFC - 8 games 2 goals CFC Seniors - 0 games 0 goals CFC Reserves - 0 games 0 goals. After a slow start to the season has stood up with some impressive performances in recent weeks.

JURRAH Liam MFC - 0 games0 goals CFC Seniors - 2 games 3 goals CFC Reserves - 1 game 0 goals. Showed glimpses of magic with Casey but is still a fair way off making a senior debut with the Demons. Could be something really special when he finally gets there.

MARIC Addam MFC - 3 games 4 goals CFC Seniors - 2 games 2 goals CFC Reserves - 0 games 0 goals. Had an interrupted pre season and played a number of VFL games before forcing his way into the Demons' side . After a shocker on return is settling down and proving a handy crumbing forward who knows how to find the goals.

MARTIN Stefan MFC - 7 games 0 goals CFC Seniors - 0 games 0 goals CFC Reserves - 0 games 0 goals. Missed the season opener but has been a steady improver ever since he returned to the team in Round 2.

McDONALD James MFC - 6 games 1 goal CFC Seniors - 0 games 0 goals CFC Reserves - 0 games 0 goals. The skipper has been his usual steady self to this point of the season.

McKENZIE Jordie * MFC - 0 games 0 goals CFC Seniors - 5 games 0 goals CFC Reserves - 0 games 0 goals. The young rookie has been something of a surprise packet in the Casey midfield and if he continues in this vein should eventually have a raise in status at the club.

McLEAN Brock MFC - 8 games 3 goals CFC Seniors - 0 games 0 goals CFC Reserves - 0 games 0 goals. Working his way back after a long injury lay off McLean appeared sluggish in the early going but has started to show a return to his old self in recent weeks.

McNAMARA Tom MFC - 0 games 0 goals CFC Seniors - 4 games 4 goals CFC Reserves - 1 game 0 goals. The teenager is getting closer to a call up to the big stuff after some promising displays with the Casey Scorpion

MEESEN John MFC - 4 games 0 goals CFC Seniors - 0 games 0 goals CFC Reserves - 0 games 0 goals. After an underwhelming first season at the club Meesen was finally selected to fill a ruck position in the Port Adelaide game and was travelling along nicely until a stress fracture to his foot put an end to his season.

MILLER Brad MFC - 8 games 11 goals CFC Seniors - 0 games 0 goals CFC Reserves - 0 games 0 goals. Held together the forward line in the absence of Robertson and is playing with greater confidence this season.

MOLONEY Brent MFC - 8 games2 goals CFC Seniors - 0 games 0 goals CFC Reserves – 0 games 0 goals. Now over his groin and shoulder problems, Moloney is returning to the sort of form he showed I'm his first year at the club.

MORTON Cale MFC - 8 games 0 goals CFC Seniors - 0 games 0 goals CFC Reserves - 0 games0 goals. Establishing himself as a future elite footballer and racking up some impressive numbers with 71 disposals in the past fortnight.

NEWTON Michael MFC - 2 games2 goals CFC Seniors - 2 games 7 goals CFC Reserves - 0 games 0 goals. The enigmatic toward is still struggling in top company where his kicking for goal and some of his decision making left a lot to be desired.

PETTERD Ricky MFC - 8 games 9 goals CFC Seniors - 0 games 0 goals CFC Reserves - 0 games 0 goals. Another player settling back after injury, Petterd is still searching for some consistency in his game.

RIVERS Jared MFC - 7 games 0goals CFC Seniors - 0 games 0 goals CFC Reserves - 0 games 0 goals. The injury prone defender is finding his feet back in the game in between the odd struggle with ankle problems.

ROBERTSON Russell MFC - 3 games 8 goals CFC Seniors - 3 games 9 goals CFC Reserves - 0 games 0 goals. Robbo's return after a long recovery period from his Achilles injury is having significant influence on straightening up the team's forward line.

SPENCER Jake * MFC - 2 games 0 goals CFC Seniors - 2 games 0 goals CFC Reserves - 1 game 0 goals. Showed out in the opening NAB Cup game against Hawthorn and through the preseason to earn promotion from the rookie list. He was then outgunned by stronger more experienced ruckmen in his early games before suffering an injury that kept him out until last Sunday when he made his return with Casey seconds.

STRAUSS James MFC - 0 games 0 goals CFC Seniors - 1 game 0 goals CFC Reserves - 2 games 0 goals. Had a slow and injury affected start to his career and was quiet in his first game at senior level with Casey last week.

SYLVIA Colin MFC - 7 games 4 goals CFC Seniors - 0 games 0 goals CFC Reserves - 0 games 0 goals. Still inconsistent still tantalising supporters that he will arrive as a star footballer one day and sometimes still disappointing.

VALENTI Shane * MFC - 1 game 1 goal CFC Seniors - 4 games 1 goal CFC Reserves - 0 games 0 goals. Considered too small and too slow for AFL, Valenti forced the selectors' hands with some hardworking and dominant performances for the Scorpions. The return of some of the club's leading lights sees him back there this week.

WARNOCK Matthew MFC - 8 games 0 goals CFC Seniors - 0 games 0 goals CFC Reserves - 0 games 0 goals. One of many improving talls in the Demon defence, Warnock has established himself in the team.

WATTS Jack MFC - 0 games 0 goals CFC Seniors - 2 games 3 goals CFC Reserves - 2 games 0 goals. The schoolboy star is in early work in progress mode at the club.

WHEATLEY Paul MFC - 0 games 0 goals CFC Seniors - 0 games 0 goals CFC Reserves - 0 games 0 goals. Finally gets the chance to grace the field this Sunday in the Scorpion reserves after being kept out by a string of injuries.

WHELAN Matthew MFC - 1 game 0 goals CFC Seniors - 1 game 0 goals CFC Reserves - 3 games 0 goals. Another of the Demon defenders troubled by injury this year, Whelan's experience in defence was noticeable in his first match back against the Western Bulldogs.

WONAEMIRRI Austin MFC - 0 games 0 goals CFC Seniors - 2 games 1 goal CFC Reserves - 0 games 0 goals. Another whose season has been curtailed by injury. Won't be seen until round 14.

ZOMER Trent * MFC - 0 games 0 goals CFC Seniors - 2 games 0 goals CFC Reserves - 3 games 3 goals. still struggling to lift himself above VFL reserves level.

Before leaving the list I think it's appropriate to compliment the club's Indigenous contingent on the eve of Indigenous Round. Aaron Davey is rightly a firm favourite at this early stage to win the club champion award, Matthew Whelan continues to win respect as a mentor for the younger players and a leader of the team's defence. The Bunbury lads Jamie Bennell and Neville Jetta have been highly impressive in the early stages of their respective careers and we all miss Austin Wonaeamirri who has been dogged by injuries. And Liam Jurrah is a budding excitement machine for the years to come. The club should be proud of the way in which our Indigenous contingent represent both the club and their people both on and off the field and have added a wonderful new dimension to the club.

On Sunday the pick of the above list takes on the (once) mighty Hawks and it's a much stronger Melbourne squad this time around with some handy footballers returning for the fray. Had Green, Rivers and Frawley been available last week, the Dees would most certainly have caused the upset of the round. They could well achieve this result with their inclusion for this week's game against the Hawks.

Hawthorn on the other hand has a defence that has been decimated and barely recognisable in comparison with that which triumphed in last year's grand final.

It's a Hawthorn team not unlike the one that just fell in when the teams clashed in the NAB Cup opener in Launceston and that's sufficient for me to suggest that the Demons will show plenty of improvement against the Hawks at twilight on Sunday.

However, I feel that, in Colin Garland's absence, the Buddy Factor will probably sway the result in the Hawks' favour although it will nevertheless be a game where statisticians like myself who like the quirky nature of the distribution of numbers can triumph. I'm tipping therefore that the result of this game will go something like this:

Round 7 - Melbourne loses by 8 points;

Round 8 - Melbourne loses by 7 points and

Round 9 - Melbourne to lose by 6 points

And at that rate the Demons should be back on the winning list by Round 16 and finish the season with a rush of victories and statistical triumphs.