SYMMETRY

[Demonland 66,956]

by The Oracle

My friend Sam the Stats Man is a great lover of the concept of symmetry. This week he's been seen walking around dazed and enraptured by the mere sight of the current AFL ladder which he calls a perfectly balanced mathematical wonder that's almost in perfect symmetry.

Right up there at the top of the ladder we find two teams in St. Kilda and Geelong still undefeated seven games into the season. Meanwhile, at the other end of the table, Richmond and Melbourne sit on the bottom with one win each.

And in between, there are twelve teams separated by one game with all of them battling it out for a place in the final eight. Two of those clubs will finish up in 15 or 16 weeks time in the top four and on equal footing with the current undefeated leaders. Unlikely as it may seem, even the bottom two are still within reach of a top eight position if only they can gain some consistent winning form.

It's no wonder therefore that this scenario excites people like Sam the Stats Man.

This brings us to Saturday's MCG blockbuster between the Bulldogs and the Demons and while, on the face of it, this game looks anything but a "blockbuster", a closer examination indicates this game will not be as one-sided as the respective ladder positions of the teams suggest.

The Doggies had a big win in Adelaide at the weekend but that came after a three week slump during which a number of deficiencies in their team were exposed. They turned it all around with the return from injury of Adam Cooney and Robert Murphy. Both had an influence in this game - particularly Cooney who starred in his first real run after a knee injury and Murphy booting four goals in a classy performance at centre half forward. However, the problem for returning players is often the second game back.

The Dees also travelled interstate - all the way across the Nullarbor - and were highly competitive in going down to the Eagles by 8 points. They may not be world beaters but they are showing improvement on a weekly basis despite persistent injury blows and, but apart from a few momentary lapses, could easily have won the four points.

What all this points to is that if Melbourne is on song and the Western Bulldogs revert to the form of rounds four to six then an upset could be on the cards. Whatever the case, it's highly unlikely that we're going to see a repeat of the demoralising 97 point thrashing meted out by the Doggies when they last met at the MCG back in Round 2 last year.

THE GAME Melbourne v Western Bulldogs at MCG – Saturday 16 May 2009 at 2.10pm (AEST)

HEAD TO HEAD

Overall Melbourne 83 wins Western Bulldogs 67 wins

At MCG Melbourne 43 wins Western Bulldogs 23 wins

Since 2000: Melbourne 10 wins Western Bulldogs 7 wins

The Coaches: Bailey 0 wins Eade 2 wins

MEDIA

TV Fox Sports 1 - Live from 2.00pm (AEST)

Radio SEN 3AW

THE BETTING Melbourne to win $4.20 Western Bulldogs to win $1.20

LAST TIME THEY MET Western Bulldogs 14.11.95 defeated Melbourne 9.10.64 in Round 15, 2008 at Telstra Dome.

The game was lackluster but at least the Demons hung in to not only avoid a flogging but they managed to hold the Dogs to what was their lowest score of the season at that stage. Brad Miller kicked a few and Cam Bruce and Colin Garland were the Demons' best but the team from the western suburbs had their measure all day.

THE TEAMS

MELBOURNE

Backs Clint Bartram Matthew Warnock Ricky Petterd

Half backs Cameron Bruce Lynden Dunn Aaron Davey

Centreline Jack Grimes Colin Sylvia Brock McLean

Half forwards Cale Morton Brad Miller Russell Robertson

Forwards Nathan Jones Stefan Martin Matthew Bate

Followers Paul Johnson Brent Moloney James McDonald

Interchange Kyle Cheney Addam Maric Shane Valenti Matthew Whelan

Emergencies Mark Jamar Neville Jetta Michael Newton

In Kyle Cheney Shane Valenti Matthew Whelan

Out Jamie Bennell (omitted) James Frawley (thigh) Jared Rivers (ankle)

WESTERN BULLDOGS

Backs Jarrod Harbrow Dale Morris Brian Lake

Half backs Lindsay Gilbee Tom Williams Ryan Hargrave

Centreline Nathan Eagleton Matthew Boyd Daniel Cross

Half forwards Robert Murphy Mitch Hahn Brad Johnson

Forwards Jason Akermanis Will Minson Josh Hill

Followers Ben Hudson Adam Cooney Ryan Griffen

Interchange Andrejs Everitt Daniel Giansiracusa Liam Picken Scott Welsh

Emergencies Dylan Addison Shaun Higgins Callan Ward

No change

I can trace Melbourne's current run of injury woes all the way back to Round 17, 2006 when the Demons scored one of their best victories of the year slamming the Western Bulldogs by 51 points in a slashing performance but one which saw Davey and Pickett suffer hamstring injuries. Travis Johnstone followed them within a week and Melbourne's season began unraveling as injury followed injury until the Demons were finally bundled out of business in semi final week.

Three years down the track and the Demons are still running with a list that is 24% injured with a few others undergoing a slow return and rehab through the lower grades. Among this week's exclusions to the team are two in form defenders James Frawley and Jared Rivers who join Colin Garland on the list of missing tall defenders. It's perhaps fortunate therefore, that the Dees are taking on the Dogs who aren't particularly renowned for having a tall forward structure. What I can't figure out is why Jamie Bennell was omitted. Possibly, it was a scheduled rest for the youngster who has played every game for the season so far and played his best against the Eagles just six days ago.

The Demons welcome back Kyle Cheney Shane Valenti and Matthew Whelan. Valenti has been promoted off the rookie list in a move that should not have come as a surprise given his hard work and excellent form with the Casey Scorpions.

The knock on Valenti has always been that he is too small and one paced and he joins a midfield where pace is not an asset that's overabundant. At least Melbourne has the benefit of some inside knowledge this week per medium of former Bulldogs champion Scott West who is now an assistant coach with the Demons. The battle lines in this area have been drawn and they are between the speed and skills of the Dogs and the pressure and hard tackling of the Demons

I think Melbourne will challenge the Doggies but the incentive of settling into a top four position should be enough for the Dishlickers.

Bulldogs by 17 points.