HELLO THERE!

[Demonland 66,890]

by The Oracle

So much water has flowed under the bridge since Melbourne last played against Essendon that the players from the respective clubs will spend more time with introductions before the game than anything else.

Last time, was over a year ago when Neale Daniher coached his last game in an emotion packed Friday night match at Telstra Dome. Daniher has gone and so has his replacement Mark Riley who was warming the seat for the current coach Dean Bailey. Melbourne's President and two CEO's have also fallen by the wayside along with a raft of others. Against the mob from Windy Hill, the Demons will be donning a guernsey which has silver as its predominant colour and that is as foreign to Melbourne as snow is in the Arabian Desert.

There have been many changes at Bomberland as well with Kevin Sheedy, leaving after more than a generation at the coaching helm, to be replaced by Matthew Knights.

The same can be said of the playing staff of the respective sides and, on top of all that, both clubs have been struck hard of late by injury meaning that after 26 rounds of football, the two combatants on Saturday afternoon, will barely be discernable from the teams that represented Essendon and Melbourne way back then.

Both clubs struggled in the first half of the season but Essendon has made a resurgence, winning five of its last six games (the loss was by less than a goal) after looking a serious challenger for the wooden spoon and a likely recipient of a priority pick at this year’s draft.

The Bomber revival has come through the fine form of veteran players like skipper Matthew Lloyd, Scott Lucas and Dustin Fletcher, its middle tier headed by David Hille who has had a dominant season in the ruck as well as the youth speed and enthusiasm of names such as Ryder, Jetta, Reimers and co. While Essendon has been hurt by a wave of injuries, it has managed to maintain a balance in its team make up and this has been an important factor in it keeping in touch with the top eight and retaining an outside chance of playing off in the finals.

Melbourne, on the other hand, has continued to struggle although, after casting off some of its older guard and concentrating on youth, it continues to show tiny glimpses of improvement on a weekly basis. Unfortunately, those tiny glimpses are also interspersed with some very ordinary form. There are however, reasons for the inconsistency and the brittleness.

It’s true that in our sport as in others, we shouldn’t use injuries as an excuse but they have plagued Melbourne for the past two years. While most scribes are marvelling at how some clubs manage to get by without some of their better players for a couple of weeks (e.g. Geelong without Ablett and Ling), spare a thought for the Demons. Since late 2006, they’ve gone without a large number of their top echelon players.

Last week when Melbourne lost to the Kangaroos by 28 points, it had missing the following players who most judges would consider to be among the top six in the voting for club champion this year; namely Brock McLean, Brad Green, Paul Wheatley and Austin Wonaeamirri. And that’s not taking into account, other longer term casualties like Jared Rivers, Brent Moloney and Russell Robertson or retired skipper David Neitz.

Melbourne’s policy of playing youth at the expense of some of the experienced old heads has also contributed to its indifferent bottom line of results. Jeff White, Adem Yze and Nathan Carroll all sat out last week after showing good form at Sandringham the week before. Their presence in the team could even have tipped the balance against North Melbourne. However, it would also have meant that three players in the under 23 age group would each have had one game less of vitally needed AFL experience – a factor that is obviously more important than the short term gains of playing the older brigade.

The upshot of this is that Melbourne’s improvement will come with the return of some of the bigger names from injury and another pre season and further match experience for the younger Demon brigade – the likes of Matthew Bate, Lynden Dunn, Matthew Warnock, Clint Bartram, Nathan Jones, Simon Buckley, Colin Garland, Stef Martin and others who are getting games in their legs and mostly will form the basis of a formidable side that will one day need no introductions.

THE GAME

Essendon v Melbourne at MCG - 2 August 2008 at 2.10pm

HEAD TO HEAD

Overall Essendon 124 wins Melbourne 77 wins 2 draws

At the MCG Essendon 62 wins Melbourne 41 wins

Since 2000: Essendon 8 wins Melbourne 4 wins

The Coaches Knights 0 wins Bailey 0 wins

MEDIA

Fox Sports 1 (Live)

RADIO 3AW MMM

THE BETTING

Essendon to win $1.22 Melbourne to win $4.00

LAST TIME THEY MET

Essendon 19.11.125 d Melbourne 18.15.123 Round 13, 2007, at Telstra Dome

This was Neale Daniher’s last hurrah and his charges took their time showing any appreciation for their long time coach. The Bombers, with Lloyd and Lucas in red-hot form, booted eight goals in the opening stanza to take an early stranglehold on the game. The Demons fought back on more than one occasion. They nearly bridged the gap just prior to the main break and then took the lead in the third term. With James McDonald, Aaron Davey and Colin Sylvia all working hard, Melbourne held a 17-point lead as time on in the final term approached. However, Lucas was inspirational and a late flurry of goals saw the Bombers home with seconds to spare. David Neitz hobbled off in the arms of his coach and mentor and an era came to an end

THE TEAMS

ESSENDON

Backs Jay Nash Mal Michael Dustin Fletcher

Half backs Adam McPhee Patrick Ryder Jarrod Atkinson

Centreline Ricky Dyson Jobe Watson Henry Slattery

Half forwards Angus Monfries Matthew Lloyd Sam Lonergan

Forwards Jason Laycock Nathan Lovett-Murray Leroy Jetta

Followers David Hille Andrew Welsh Brent Stanton

Interchange Kyle Reimers Andrew Lovett Damien Peverill Adam Ramanauskas

Emergencies Heath Hocking Cale Hooker Rhys Magin

In Andrew Lovett

Out Scott Lucas (back)

MELBOURNE

Backs Matthew Whelan Colin Garland Matthew Warnock

Half backs Chris Johnson Daniel Bell Paul Wheatley

Centreline Cale Morton Cameron Bruce Simon Buckley

Half forwards Brad Green Matthew Bate AaronDavey

Forwards Paul Johnson Colin Sylvia Addam Maric

Followers Mark Jamar Clint Bartram James McDonald

Interchange Lynden Dunn Stefan Martin Shane Valenti Stefan Martin Austin Wonaeamirri

Emergencies Nathan Carroll Nathan Jones Jeff White

In Brad Green Paul Wheatley Austin Wonaeamirri

Out Brad Miller (hamstring) Nathan Jones Michael Newton

Umpires Kennedy Sully Fila

Earlier in the season, I would have pencilled this game in as one that was extremely winnable as far as Melbourne was concerned with the venue tipping the scale in favour of the Demons. Then something strange happened – the Dons started winning their games.

Essendon's only loss in the run home in the second half of the season came a fortnight ago when their last ditch attempt to win was frustrated by Tiger defender Joel Bowden’s ball hogging tactics in the final minute of the game.

Melbourne's record over the same period has been marked by a slight improvement over the first half of the season but it has also been a time of frustration for the club as the injuries mount. For once, the pendulum has swung slightly in that regard with the return from injury of some valuable players – Brad Green, Paul Wheatley and Austin Wonaeamirri. However, their return has been offset to an extent by the loss of the team’s only effective key forward in Brad Miller through a hamstring injury. The selectors dropped Michael Newton, who was out of touch up forward last week and returns to Sandringham to gain some confidence and Nathan Jones who has struggled lately under the pressure of being the club's main man in the midfield and the target of heavy tagging, often in the form of double teaming.

The Bombers lose Scott Lucas who starred against the Demons when they last met but was quiet last week against the Magpies. He is replaced by Andrew Lovett who returns after being disciplined by the club for yet another infraction against team rules. His inclusion will add to the Bombers' pace advantage.

And it's this advantage in pace that will give the Bombers the edge over the Demons in this game. Melbourne's midfield is not overburdened with pace or quality for that matter and, while these deficiencies will need to be addressed in the forthcoming trade and draft period, there is little coach Dean Bailey can do in the short term to offset this glaring disadvantage. Simon Buckley on a wing has been good in this area lately but he’s also somewhat predictable in how he operates, attempting to take on the opposition and run the lines at every opportunity.

Lynden Dunn will be called on to shut down one of the Essendon midfield brigade (Jobe Watson?). Thankfully, the Bomber on ballers won’t yap on like Boomer Harvey and, in any event, it is hoped that Dunn has now learned his lessons from last week well.

Melbourne has had to recast its forward line yet again and, despite the return of Wonaeamirri, they will struggle. Essendon is the highest scoring team over the past six weeks, while Melbourne has been struggling to kick a decent score all year. That, and the fact that Melbourne will be donning its silver atrocity for thankfully the last time, suggests a Bomber victory by a good margin.

Essendon by 32 points.