2008 MID-SEASON REVIEW – ANGELS AND DEMONS

by Kevin Hawkins aka Dee man [12 June 2008]

It was a fitting decision for Melbourne to abandon their Demon image for season 2008, because Dean Bailey and his troops desperately need to start saying their prayers. This year’s 150th Birthday celebrations have been nothing more than a tumultuous shambles for the Melbourne football club; it seems only a miracle from the heavens could turn their poor fortunes around.

Off-field, things haven't been looking too grand. The poorly timed departure of Steve Harris, decreased membership sales and ineffective marketing have thrown up a few unwanted birthday surprises. But it is Melbourne’s on-field performance that is most alarming, with the team’s performance being likened to that of Fitzroy. Sitting 16th on the ladder with just one win and a paltry 60.56 percentage, some critics have been yelling for the Demons to relocate north to the Gold Coast.

The retirement of captain David Neitz and the freak injury to fellow 150 Hero Russell Robertson haven’t helped, but injuries can’t be held responsible for Melbourne’s failure as they were in 2007. Interestingly though, before this duo fell victim to injuries, their impact on the game was minimal. Neitz managed must three goals, while a large majority of Robertson’s 20 were kicked in the last quarter of games when games were dead and buried. Call me irreverent, but even Melbourne’s so-called stars have let the team down badly this year.

In spite of all this, one must remember that first year coach "Yoda" Bailey had labelled the season a development year before the ball was even bounced. The early impressions shown by early draftee Cale Morton and the rookie-elevated Austin Wonaeamirri have given supporters a reason to smile, while the continuing improvements of Nathan Jones, Matthew Bate, Simon Buckley, Colin Garland, Matthew Warnock and Paul Johnson have been a much overlooked blessing. Meanwhile, Brad Green has begun asserting himself as a potential leadership replacement for Neitz, as has Brock McLean – still seeking atonement for his pre-season indiscretions.

What is a major concern, however, is the backwards steps being taken by many of Melbourne’s young players. Many hoped that a development year would mark the maturing stage for Melbourne’s promising youth. On the contrary, none of Lynden Dunn, Michael Newton, James Frawley, Clint Bartram, Daniel Bell, Chris Johnson, Jace Bode and Ricky Petterd have taken their game to the next level as one would hope.

That’s eight players, or two years worth of drafting. While it would be unfair to write off that group at such an early stage of their career, one can’t help but be concerned. Newton and Dunn (currently being used as a tagger) are supposed to be the focal points of Melbourne’s forward line for the next decade; Frawley is expected to become Melbourne’s first genuine key position defender since the 90s. They still have time on their side, but how patient will Bailey and co. be before throwing the axe?

Let's state the obvious: Melbourne aren’t going to make the finals this year. At best, they may win 2-3 more games. With this in mind, there is little point in persisting with senior players Adem Yze and Ben Holland. It could well be argued that both are in the team's best 22 and could definitely contribute to the team's short-term success, but in reality a farewell game in Round 22 is the most Bailey can afford to give either of them. Yze is a legend of the Melbourne football club – there is no doubting that – however one can't help but wonder whether his position in the team is depriving a young player of an opportunity.

Arguably the same could be said about Matthew Whelan – now 28 - whose body hasn't be right for years. Whelan is a fantastic footballer and one of the most capable back pockets in the league when fit. However, reality is that he is past his prime, in terms of both ability and physical endurance and will not be a component of Melbourne's next premiership team.

Fellow defender Nathan Carroll is another who looks to be closing in on the end of his career after he was dropped from the senior side the week the coaching panel analysed the playing list. Carroll is an aggressive and bold competitor, but key forwards are now finding him far too easy to defeat. As I write, Warnock and Garland are overtaking him in Melbourne’s defensive hierarchy, while Stefan Martin could well join that duo by season’s end. The only thing that may keep Carroll on the Melbourne list in 2009 is if the talented, albeit injury-prone, Jared Rivers can't get his body right – a frightening prospect.

From now until the end of the year, Bailey and his coaching staff must be given the licence to experiment. Players like Dunn, Newton, C Johnson, Bode and Buckley - who all seem to fit into Bailey's run and carry game plan - must consistently be given opportunities, while permanent positions must be found for Green, Bell, Bartram and the much maligned Colin Sylvia.

While Green has been Melbourne's standout player this year, his desperation and courageous marking ability is being wasted as a loose man in defence. For years, supporters have been screaming for him to return to the forward line. Perhaps Bailey should take note.

Since injuring himself late last year, Bell has not returned to the form expected of him. His decision making has been mediocre, while his one-on-one efforts have been below par. A spell as an outside midfielder, or even a small forward, could rejuvenate his career. A spell at Sandringham may also be appropriate.

Bartram could become one of the best taggers in the league, if only he was assigned that role more regularly. He has a superb engine, but still has one of the most unreliable kicks in the business. Bailey must make use of Bartram’s strengths and play him on the opposition’s best midfielder each week, rather than waste him as a rebounding defender – a position Melbourne has a surplus supply of.

Finally, we come to Sylvia. Let’s not lie; Sylvia's selection as pick 3 in the draft will probably never be justified. Nonetheless, Sylvia could still become a very handy footballer. If one removes all prior expectations, then Sylvia's progress could be considered relatively exciting. He is currently having his most influential season to date, however he is constantly being switched from defence to midfield to forward. By season’s end, Sylvia must be able to call a specific position his own, otherwise he may have to be put up for trade. The absence of Neitz and Robertson opens the door up in the forward line; a 30-40 goal return could reinvigorate the hopes held by so many Demon supporters.

Some of Bailey's experimentations have worked thus far, with several players who appeared lost now finding their feet. Although Cameron Bruce's kicking still hasn't re-gained its potency of seasons past, the team’s co-captain is having a relatively successful year. Playing as a medium-sized defender-cum-creative midfielder has worked a treat; Bruce is practically playing two positions in the one side. What he must do now is provide greater leadership and prove to critics that he can permanently take over Neitz’s prized mantle. Some added hardness could help as well.

The phasing out of club stalwarts and 150 Heroes Jeff White and James McDonald has also been a noteworthy process. White is no longer starting every game in the centre, with Jamar and Johnson been given much greater responsibility. One could interpret this changing-of-the-guard purely as an indication of White’s form; these days, few of White’s taps hit teammates.

Johnson has made the most of this opportunity, showing class all over the ground, but Jamar still lacks the confidence needed for an AFL player. His ruckwork, physical presence and disposal tally have lifted significantly from previous seasons, however his reluctance to kick or gather contested possessions makes him a liability. If John Meesen can develop into the player DB wants him to be within the next few months, Jamar's playing days may be over.

Following two years of midfield brilliance, McDonald has taken a less demanding role this season, assigning greater workload to hard-at-it on-ballers Jones, McLean and Brent Moloney. Almost every week, this trio aggressively attack the opposition in both a literal and metaphorical sense. Fittingly, they are all ranked in the league’s top 30 for contested possessions, in addition to ranking highly in clearances and first possessions (average per round, as of Round 11, Pro-Stats). Rookie Shane Valenti could soon add his name to that centre square on a regular basis; in his two appearance thus far, he has laid 12 tackles and completed 13 one percenters. (Pro-Stats)

Brad Miller's permanent move to Centre Half Forward has, as expected, been a success; the inconsistent leader is enjoying his finest season to date. Nonetheless, Miller still has one element of his game to conquer before he can start considering himself a reliable footballer: goals. If Miller, and his partner in crime Bate, can average 2 goals a game, then Melbourne’s half forward line could start looking very dangerous, as it briefly did against Fremantle in Round 7.

Before injury, Aaron Davey was beginning to adapt to his new role on the wing, being a key playmaker against the Kangaroos, Fremantle and Hawthorn. What Davey must do now is maintain consistency; if he can produce four effective quarters a game, rather than the occasional bursts of brilliance, he could become the team’s most important player.

Playing Davey in the midfield has allowed his protégée Wonaeamirri to play as a permanent forward pocket, a role he has relished. Wonaeamirri has been nothing short of brilliant in his debut year, having picked up a Rising Star Nomination and been a multiple goalkicker on five occasions.

As good as Wonaeamirri has been, however, the biggest success story of the year thus far has been that of Warnock and Garland. Five weeks ago, this duo were rejected as duds by Demon fans, while their names didn't mean anything to the average football follower. Now, all of a sudden, these two have almost pencilled in the Full Back and Centre Half Back positions for the next decade after some promising performances on the likes of Buddy Franklin (3 goals – his 2nd lowest tally all season), Jarryd Roughead (1 goal), Justin Koschitzke (2 goals but no influence) and Travis Cloke (goalless). Furthermore, Garland has shown an ability to run and carry; his kicking has been floorless in recent games, disregarding a perfect spear to a St Kilda player when the young defender believed he was kicking to a teammate.

After eleven weeks, it is still too early to fully assess Bailey's efforts. We are being told that he has an impressive game plan, but there has been little evidence of its effectiveness. A freakish half against Fremantle and three spirited three-quarter efforts against Geelong, Hawthorn and Collingwood simply aren't enough, but patience is the key.

Who knows; Bailey could well become the saviour that the MFC has been searching for since the days of Norm Smith, but one shouldn’t be expecting any miracles from him any time soon.

Expected finish: 16th (2 wins, 20 losses)

From the blog of Kevin Hawkins