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I still think we will looking for this player in October next year.

Fine then - 70% of you think the two kids will 'come on' by the end of 2014.

If we go by Jamar's standards we should expect them to 'come on' in 2018.

If by 'come on' we're talking shown enough to prove to have a viable future and playing consistently at one level or another then I think 22 is quite reasonable. We aren't necessarily talking a dominating #1 ruck here (or are you?).

Footy quite simply isn't an exact science. When it comes to rucks, yes bigger players can take longer to develop and perhaps reach their optimum but to get to that point they would have laid the foundations - by 22 a club should have a pretty good idea. It comes down to the player in question and their opportunities as much as anything else.

Matthew Kreuzer has been in the system for just 3 yrs and has notched up 56 games. Definitely talented when he came on board but no more physically developed than an average ruck prospect. He played 23 games in his 2nd year. In no way am I suggesting the same bench mark should be in place for our guys, but it does show that setting rules in stone is pointless.

I also think that expecting Gawn or Fitzpatrick to be ready to deliver in any fashion inside of 3 years in a very good team (I assume we are going to be very good?) as two-thirds of you do is incrediably unfair on a couple of speculative kids.

I can't speak for the others but I took your words literally. ie 36 months down the track (not within the next 3 seasons although even then that is reasonable for at least an introduction). This means we'd be looking at season 2014 where we should expect a competent and consistent standard.

Injury stumped Jamar's progress a few years ago. He looked quite promising when he first came on to the scene.

If the first question is based on who do I expect then PJ. If based on who do I hope (if given the opportunity to prove himself) then Martin.

The ruck question should have included a 50/50 scenario which I think many clubs will entertain given the stocks.

How could Martin's ruckwork be worse than PJs???

PJ might be Martin's ruck coach.

On a serious note I think we have nothing to lose in prioritising Martin as a ruckman this off-season with as many resources possible (even if it is 3 or 4 years too late).

Sink or swim.

Deeluded would hate this deal from a Brisbane POV.

Deeluded aside, Brisbane haven't done too badly out of this if reports of them getting a compensation pick as a result are true.

Meaningless to those that don't understand it...

Care to elaborate?

Common sense prevails, we're not getting cought in an Ahab and his wHale scenario.

"Market value" is such a meaningless concept. It essentially is dictated by what the most desperate club is willing to give away and on this occasion it looks like we have drawn a line which responsible clubs do and not try and rationalise a rediculous trade with "market value" in mind.

Big question now is will our 2nd rounder do the job? Hawks look set to beat that if they still have their comp pick. It would have been nice if they asked Harrington about the likelyhood of including a fringe player which is about all I could see them doing as a last resort.

12 is sacred, all Hail pick 12.

Thanks again, Sandra.

lol it's the quick and the dead sometimes with breaking news.

Why are so many people so keen on Hale! He is a below average ruckmen and a poor forward.

I'm not (unless it is for a 3rd and a fringe). I've stated my case in the 'Hale' thread but there is no point reiterating that.

My point was more to do with the trade tactics irrespective of the player. It's great to see us throwing it back at another team in trade week.

Haha me too. Love all the rumours and mind games, even though it usually ends up being a massive anti climax

laughs aside it is a very good tactical move by Melbourne.

1) They pressure Hawthorn to secure him up if they want him which means they won't have currency for Hale. Naturally our position becomes stronger.

2) It may also show Hawthorn's hand how much they actually want Hill in the first place. Hawks are definitely playing games so let's flush the bastards out. We can sit on Hale all week if we have to.

rofl if that is fair dinkum then that is bloody brilliant!

Suck on that Hawthorn, 2 can play at that game.

God I love trade week.

interestingly if could increase rotation as you now only have 3 on the bench for the game.

I agree in that this is a possibility which I don't see how AFL research can fully counter. Theory is great but it will come down to the clubs in question and how they respond. Teams will probably have default players who are designated to be subbed if no injuries occur by a certain stage so they may be pushed harder than the other players who will be rotated.

I also question the concept of the end of the 2nd ruck. I think the reaction to this rule wrt a KPF who can pinch hit is over the top. Yes, ruckmen will need to be competent in other positions or roles and have pretty good endurance but clubs will still need and (in most cases) play 2 standard ruckmen. Whether they are still considered a first and second ruck or perhaps just 2 rucks who share close to an even load will come down to semantics.

meaning my view of hale may be a bit coloured (wishful)???

Not necessarily mate, perhaps you've lowered the bar a bit but it's all opinion at the end of the day.

The reality is that we can encapsulate this whole debate to a judgement call. Most posters wouldn't trade pick 12 for Hale. Most posters would be happy to trade pick 47 for him.

Somewhere in between (pick 32) is the judgement call where there isn't a general consensus and I tend to think that the differences of opinion that have been well thought out and conveyed in this thread (by both sides) are ultimately shaped around that pick. Personally I'm a no and many seem to be a yes. I respect every one elses opinions and there is no point trying to change the way people think on the matter. I won't comment any more in this thread as I've bored people to death but I've given my reasons why I'm a no at pick 32 and accept that my opinion counts for didley squat.

The other possibility is that we have a subsequent trade which fetches us a another pick which may slightly change the scenario.

If we take on Hale no matter the pick I'll wish the club all the best and hope he can make an impact. Looking forward to trade week and season 2011.

Until someone comes up with another specific name (not a young draftee) I've got to stick with Hale

My real main point is we have to "do something". The Russian won't survive another 2010 and then we will really be in the shizen.

I agree that PJ is diabolical and the Russian needs help - nobody disagrees with that.

If it comes down to Hale being the only option then go for him but if they want our 2nd then I'd leave it alone and bite the bullet with PJ for just 1 more yr. It is a judgement call but it's a cost/benefit analysis - we rotate Jamar and PJ 60/40 which throws the gauntlett down to PJ and take on a good prospect with pick 32.

I must get these rose-colored glasses looked at

que?

With the expected reduction of the interchange, it is expected the stock-ruckman role will change as far as the 2nd ruckman is concerned.

Rucks will change more often in the forward line than interchange bench, and this should suit the Russian. The Russian will probably ruck at least 2/3 rds of the time, meaning the 2nd ruck will spend 2/3 or more playing on the forward line. This is hardly the profile of a "stock-ruckman". We need a tall who can pinch-ruck effectively but knows how to play a tall forward role but in our case not a key-forward role. Furthermore this is a temporary role for a couple of years until our own young talls develop. I think the role of a traditional second ruck could be numbered if the changes go through. The FD seem to think they need this type of player.

I appreciate that, the game will probably change. But what it also means is that Jamar will have a bigger load on him than ever before - he'll be on the field longer which means that the weight of his job needs to be diluted. The role of the traditional second ruck may change but it doesn't change the fact that we still need one. Further more (another parroted point of mine) Hale has shown nothing up forward to show he is any better an option up forward than a "stock" or "second" ruck anyway. We should look at maximising our options not limiting them.

So, is Hale the best available and affordable mature option going around?

This can only be answered if compared to the alternatives. Who are the alternatives? And not "stock-ruckmen" please.

None of us know the exact answer to this - all we can do is discuss trades on merit. With all due respect I know that I have parroted "stock-ruckmen" and many people reading my posts may be yawning on that point but the reality is that there is no better option than that as it stands. I would be surprised if there aren't some decent rucks on the market during the week but if there are then I would opt that way - I don't really know what extra you need me to say on that.

I think Hale has shown the potential (for what we need) and is worth a risk, but obviously many others think he is a spud.

So lets discuss and compare alternatives

BTW I agree re the 3rd rounder + fringe player as the ideal price. North may even cover some of his contract salary??

You see, this is the problem, I think many posters are actually trivialising what we need. Our ruck stocks (regardless of interchange rule changes) are very slim. In dealing with this I beleive we end up dealing (in large part) with the forward problem.

It's nice that you actually agree with the price Hale is worth (which goes some way to showing how much value you think he brings) even though you disagree on other matters.

Think you're missing the point. Have a look at the big picture.

On the contrary, you're missing the point. Giving away our 2nd pick to do this is madness when it isn't necessary. This years draft is still a massive part of our big picture.

I know exactly why the club is going after Hale - I'm not questioning the rationale, simply the unnecessary price.

My point is that if we give away our 2nd pick then go after a competent stock ruckman who can share the load with Jamar more so (forward and ruck). This means Jamar goes forward more, lasts longer and we have an extra ruckman on our books going into the future instead of someone who has limited application other than sticking them somewhere and playing a role that a stock ruckman can play. There is a big possibility of Hale becoming another Newton where as (unless they are worse than PJ which won't happen) a stock ruckman will at least be useful in the stopages.

There is a big contingency here on Hale being effective up forward and our future ruckmen coming on board the way we hope and also that Jamar won't get injured. I'm definitely looking at the big picture not idealising some 5 minute role to give us all a fuzzy that we don't have to rely on PJ. We need another competent stock ruckman and if we do settle for Hale then no more than a 3rd and a fringe please.

He began his career at the MFC and was one of many players who the Demons let go of and who ended up being superb players.

Yep. Honest player for us and then moved to the Crows and played above his weight as a very competent defender for years. Just the type of instructor we could do with.

Nathan Bassett would make a great support coach.

He's managed to get a young Norwood team into the SANFL Grand Final and is highly respected in the footy coaching fraternity over in SA.

Touted to make it to AFL coach one day and if you have heard him speak is a very level headed and respectable identity. Works very well with young players.

Snaffle him up Dees!

Oh yeah, and played for the Dees so he may be open to coming over.

If Hale can stick his arms up in the air when marking he already has more KPP attributes than PJ.

No arguement but as per my original post if that is our benchmark for improvement in the context of trading our 2nd pick away then god help us.

It's now sounding like it's Fait Accompli that he's coming to us for our second pick... #32. Are we paying overs?

It that is the complete trade then yes.

I did say theoretically. I was just trying to emphasise a point that he's not being recruited as a key forward, but to provide some structure to free up and protect our younger developing key forwards in Watts and Jurrah.

I would hope he will get 1-2 goals per game

When you play goal square you should have at least some KP attributes or we may as well stick with PJ.

I understand what the club is trying to achieve and I agree we need that type of player for structure but there has to be some more strings to the bow if we're talking 2nd pick. Nearly any ruckman with an ounce of skill can perform that role and it is in this light that Hale should be scrutinised.

For all those who don't want Hale, what is your better alternative

Hard to know what all the options in trade week will be but I'd go with a stock ruckman who will earn his keep at the stopages and then perform the role you mention in the square (which shouldn't be too hard going by your definition of the said role). If we end up opting for Hale (which it sounds like we are) then 3rd rounder and a fringe player (nothing more). If Hale promised something more over a stock ruckman up forward then I'd say push for him even if we over pay slightly but he doesn't.

In that case why don't we just go into the MCG carpark, chop down a tree and stick it in our forward line.

Would be $400k cheaper.

He's not being recruited to be a "key forward". His job is partly to take the heat off the key forwards. In fact theoretically he could get no possessions and still do his job. He will be pretty well stay at home forward to contest the long kicks deep into the forward line. To either mark or provide a contest for the crumbers. Hopefully he takes a key opposition tall away from our key forwards. If he takes an odd grab and goal, which he is quite capable of, that is a bonus.

lol wow

His number one job in the ruck would be to ensure the opposition don't get any ruck supremacy whilst Jamar rests. If he can do more, again a bonus.

A stock ruckman is more likely to accomplish this.