45HG

Another intriguing round of footy awaits and, Melbourne's near-destruction of my love for the game notwithstanding, I am looking forward to it. Some patterns for the year seem set, but some questions remain. Collingwood v St Kilda Pies' favour - they'll be smarting over their loss on ANZAC day where Pendlebury claimed the Magpies players cheated (my first thought was JW), their barrage of top quality mids who kick goals are difficult to contain, they're still 3-2 despite a dodgy start to the year and Luke Ball is close to returning. Saints' favour - they man-up well against the Pies, they still have some top-name players who are playing pretty well. Verdict - the Pies will be up and about after ANZAC day, the plucky Saints will be hard to shake but will lack the quality all around the field (how will they be when NDS, LM, SM and NR retire in the coming seasons?) and the Pies will be too dangerous going forward. My tip - Pies by 23 Essendon v GWS Bombers' favour - they're flying at 5-0, they're at home, they're playing one of the worst sides of all time. Giants' favour - Essendon players may finally revolt against their club? Verdict - this could be anything. Two seasons ago, Essendon put on 15 goals in a quarter against the Suns. This is a better Bombers side - and they looked angrier and hungrier. The Giants have set themselves for two winnable games in the last two weeks and, despite some good patches, have lost both by over 40 points. My tip - Bombers by 123 North Melbourne v Port Adelaide Roos' favour - they have to be the best 1-4 team ever, they have pushed some much better sides and have played at the ground before. Port's favour - 5-0 for the first time in their history, have refused to give up under any circumstance this year and have a wealth of confident mids. Verdict - Port are 5-0 and have been very good. That said, they've beaten some trash. They've rolled the bottom 3, given a mediocre Crows side a five goal lead and the West Coast Pretenders a 41 point head-start. To their credit, they came back to win - to their detriment, they were that far down. North have been up and about all year and will show that ladder position can stand for very little. They will be too good for Port, though Port's confidence should keep them in it. My tip - North by 26 Adelaide v Hawthorn Crows' favour - this game is being played at home, despite putting in a terrible half and losing their star player they pushed Carlton all the way, looked dangerous against the Hawks in the Prelim...Rioli's out? Hawks' favour - they're probably the best team in the comp, they were terrible last week yet still beat a pretty quality side, they're amazing by foot and can cut teams open in the blink of an eye. Verdict - this will be closer than some think. Adelaide haven't been great, but I think the loss of Walker will actually galvanise the group and make them play harder as a group. The Hawks got out of gaol and are still a terrific side, but I think they'll miss Rioli and I'm not sure some of their ball-movers will get the same space they've been given this year. I think they'll still get up - purely because they're a better team. My tip - Hawthorn by 5 Richmond v Geelong BANG! Tigers' favour - they're playing good, team footy with a lot of contributors. In worse form they pushed the Cats all the way last year - at the Cattery, too! Jack can't be as bad as he was last week. Cats' favour - they just win. They've got good experienced heads and talented youngsters coming through who play a roll. They sleep-walked through last week but won't let their guard down this week. Verdict - Here we go, folks. We'll learn a bit here. Can the Tigers fight back from their disappointing showing against the Pies and narrow loss to the Dockers. As good as they've been, the Tigers could slip to 3-3 against a Geelong team who just know how to win. My tip - Cats by 10 Gold Coast v Fremantle Suns' favour - they were unlucky to lose to Freo up there last year, have good home form and can lift their win-loss record to an impressive 3-3. Dixon is in dangerous form. Dockers' favour - they play as a strong unit and were impressive in getting the goods against the Tigers (despite the closeness of the result). They also have a quality tagger in Crowley who is, unfortunately, able to take Ablett out of the game (hopefully the umps are watching closely!) Verdict - I've liked the Suns this year, they've played with intensity and a bit of flair. They're good out of the guts and can get it going up forward. Freo are an organised outfit with some quality mids but the loss of Fyfe will hurt. My tip - Freo by 13 Sydney v Brisbane Swans' favour - the 10 day break will be very handy, a plethora of quality mids will be too hot to handle and, like the Cats, they just know how to win. Lions' favour - will have gained a bit of confidence from the win on Sunday and they'll welcome back the creative Hanley (possibly Black as well). Verdict - the Swans are a machine and will be far too strong at home. They've dominated Brisbane in recent times and will continue to do so on their home deck (although, they have just been going so far this season). Brisbane have been terrible all year, and weren't impressive in the least last week. My tip - Sydney by 53 Carlton v Melbourne Blues' favour - had a training run on the G last week and a lesson in not taking the foot off the throat (too soon, anyway), a bunch of hard midfielders who use the footy well and a propensity to run forward of the ball when the going is good. Dees' favour - this game will only go the standard 80 playing minutes. Verdict - Melbourne are terrible. Possibly the worst I've seen in my time. Carlton are ok, but they are flat-track bullies and they will have a field day on Sunday. They're good at precisely the things we're terrible at and their weaknesses still outweigh our strengths. At least Setanta won't be playing. My tip - Carlton by 77 West Coast Eagles' favour - this game is at home and they bloody love their home, despite a terrible record this year. They may welcome back their talisman, NN. Surely they'll click at some stage? Dogs' favour - they were plucky against the Cats, Liam Jones looks a likely type. Verdict - tough one, in my opinion. Much of it rests on whether or not Nic Nat players. If he does, I put it as a 10 goal win. If not, I think about 4 goals. His drive out of the middle, confidence he gives the midfielders and, possibly most importantly, his ability to free up Cox is vitally important. The Dogs were decent against the Cats but have been very up and down this season. My tip - Eagles by 42 Game of the Round Cats Tigers/Roos Power Thrashing of the Round Bombers over GWS Toughest to pick Tigers Cats/Dockers Suns Upset of the Round Suns over the Dockers/Tigers over Cats/Crows over Hawks Closest tip last week Had the margin in the Tigers/Freo game - but tipped the wrong team! (2 points off) The closest correct tip was GC over GWS by 14 points. That's three weeks in a row the closest tip has involved GWS...

Went the wrong way...

Chris Gayle / wow!

Is this his 10th nomination in the last 26 matches?

Ha - I've tipped pretty much all those teams to win... except Melbourne.

Where I disagree is that, when I think about Andrew Embley, I don't think of someone who shows "intensity and urgency" nor someone who "hunts the ball" and "works for [his] teammates."

Not a big surprise. That was the problem in the first 3 rounds - we obviously train well against no opposition.

Not sure if the article on the Dees website has been mentioned (We did it for the supporters) but I wanted to make mention of one passage. Neeld: “Boring old stuff that the world hates and you guys (the media) never write, because it never sells papers – stick to the process and the plan and that’s what we do. It’s not as exciting as what people think, working inside a footy club.” I don't know what others think, but I hate the way some of our people talk about footy. It's all process, excuses, formula. There's so little passion, emotion and excitement. There's no expectation to win. Yes, I get that we're young etc. but that doesn't excuse a couple of clubs north of the boarder from attacking the majority of contests with aggression and flair. I want some passion and expectation of the now. I think the whole "play for the future" notion has been shot to the proverbial over the past 7 years. Understanding your limitations is one thing. Accepting them is another.

Round 5 - yet another massive round of Aussie Rules. Obviously this year has been terrible, but I have found that writing these little columns has given me an outlet (despite the fact that most predictions I give should be reversed in order to be taken seriously!). Essendon v Collingwood Bang! It's the most over-rated, over-produced, over-hyped game on the calendar. I detest many things about it, but nothing more than the ridiculous glorification of (that's the way I see it, anyway) war and war stories and the incredibly tenuous link that the producers pull to tie together soldiers fighting for their lives and footballers being paid to entertain by kicking a ball around. That said - it's a massive game. Made all the moreso by the standing of these two. One loss between them (to the highly-fancied Hawks) and both equipped to face the big stage. As ever, form means little for this sort of game. That said, these teams have it. Essendon are riding high (ha) with 4 straight wins, including a deconstruction of a St Kilda side the likes of which hasn't been seen for a decade. Collingwood, with a shocking half of footy aside, have been very good in big games against the Blues and the Tigers. They're just going, however. The Blues had their measure for a good deal of the game but faltered late. The Tigers had their customary Richmond moment and conceded 8 straight goals (much to my confusion as I slept during this period). They dominated the Hawks early but were blown off the park and just got the job done against North. Things in the Bombers' favour - they have massive form and their midfield is in unquenchable form. Things in the Pies' favour - they have many dangerous goal-kickers, are well-atuned to the big stage and have won the last 7 against the Bombers. My tip: The Bombers by 11 St Kilda v Sydney The first game of Aussie Rules played for premiership points promises to be (in my view) a pretty disappointing one. The Swans will be absolutely livid that they lost to the Cats the way they did. They were beaten to the ball and lost in the clinches. They won't do that again. The Saints, too, lost in an uncharacteristic fashion. They were disorganised, had little of the ball and were regularly cut apart. The difference between the two sides is that, in my opinion, the Saints won't be able to do as much about their slip in form. It's simply the way they are headed. The Swans will win too much hard ball and have too many goal-kickers. They've been a tough team to read this year (with two ok wins and one good quarter) but they will love playing on ANZAC day and should be too good. Things in the Swans favour - they're a better team than the Saints and, importantly, they have an extra day's break. Things in the Saints favour - they won a game against the Swans last year and may enjoy the trip to batten down the hatches. I think they'll need to learn that well, as they're losing it for mine. My tip: Swans by 37 Fremantle v Richmond Another massive test for the Tigers and a chance for the Dockers to stabilise a faltering campaign. The Dockers' last 6 quarters haven't been much chop. To their credit, they stemmed the flow in the Hawks game after quarter time. The problem was that their stemming of the flow reflected that of a litre of milk that had been knocked from its perch - massive loss early and slow drips from there on until a predictable conclusion. A largely forgettable game where the Hawks just got the job done. The Dockers are tough to read. When they play well as a team they look very hard to top but when the team falters, they look below terrible. The Tigers will rue 20 minutes of (what I assume to be) Richmond footy. They're looking a very good team this year, however, and I don't think the trip away will do them any harm at all. They'll enjoy the expanses of Patersons but will need to be very good by foot. Things in the Dockers favour - their home ground advantage is exactly that, their well-drilled set up is hard to beat and they rolled the Tigers twice last year (once well against the odds). Things in the Tigers favour - despite a shocking third quarter they're in decent form, they don't travel too badly and they have a good vibe about them. A very tough game to tip, it really could go either way depending on which team clicks, for how long they do, and for how long the "Richmond thing" happens. My tip: Tigers by 1 GWS v Gold Coast At the start of the year, I thought this game was a certainty to be the "insert likely number 1 draft pick's name here" Cup. But I was at that game yesterday... Anyway, the Yawn Cup is here. At Manuka of all places. The AFL would've had a chuckle fixturing this little beauty. GWS were plucky on the weekend. Their boys have a dip and, when their systems click, they can be pretty good to watch. When things go against them, however, they are below-Melbourneesque. Gold Coast were disappointing. I barely saw any of the game so can't really comment and I don't care enough about this game to write much more. Things in the Giants' favour - they were pretty good for 2 weeks and are returning to the scene of their first win - against this mob in the corresponding fixture last year. Things in the Suns' favour - they've been in pretty good form and should enter this match with the confidence that they have a better midfield. They should get the job done, but they won't have it all their own way. My Tip: The Suns by 30 Carlton v Adelaide This feels a strange fixture. My guess is the AFL expected Carlton to be massive by now, and the Crows to be in red-hot form (whoops on both). Thus moving this game from Etihad. It feels like it should be an Etihad game. I suppose the Dogs are, really, that bad. Anyway... Another game to get a read of. In my mind, these teams are kind of similar. Carlton should shade the midfield whilst Adelaide have the easy out. It'll be interesting to see who is sent to The Mouse - stopping him could be key. Similar to the Tigers game, I think this could be a case of the team who makes the most of the run they get when they get it. I think that Carlton have looked better than Adelaide for the most this year and, at home, should get the job done in a tough one. Things in the Blues' favour - running flair from Yarran and Garlett add an element to a star-studded midfield and the win on the weekend could see them hit form (in time for the Dees...) Things in the Crows' favour - they pumped Carlton last year in their only meeting (though they look a shell of that now) and they have enough good players to, if they're in form, trouble any side. My tip: Carlton by 17 Western Bulldogs v Geelong Uh oh. Pre-season I thought the Dogs were going to be terrible and vie for the bottom of the ladder. Round 1 put that into doubt. Rounds 2-4 brought it back with a vengeance. As always, I've underrated Geelong massively. This game could simply be a matter of how much Geelong care. That could see the margin range from 30-100 points. I'm worried it could be the latter. Things in the Dogs' favour - they have some great names on their list (Griffin, Cross, Boyd and Cooney). Things in the Cats' favour - they are immense and have won their last 5 against the Dogs. My tip: Geelong by 63 Port Adelaide v West Coast For this match 2nd versus 12th isn't a surprise. The fact that it's in that order is. Port's win last week, for me, shows that they may hang around at the top for longer than I'd thought. West Coast's loss feels like they may be the Perth pretenders that I'd anticipated at the start of the season. West Coast seem like they have too many good players to be losing. Port, however, have barely put a foot wrong all season - save for giving up a couple of early leads. They have, however, played some trash teams. Melbourne, GWS and Gold Coast have been ticked off and, whilst they rolled the Crows they'd hardly want to give up 5 goals to them next time they play. How good West Coast actually is may determine this game. I don't think the Eagles are the real deal but I think they're much better than they've been going. Things in the Power's favour - form. 4-0 can't be sneezed at. They attack the footy hard and can kick goals in a hurry. Thing in the Eagles' favour - they've won the last 3 against the Power, have a star-studded lineup and, surely, can only play better than they have been. My tip: Eagles by 17 Brisbane v Melbourne As Eminem once wrote/rapped: back to reality, whoop there goes gravity. Dees are going to fall back to reality. How hard will depend on how well the boys are able to keep their heads up when the run (and the crowd) goes against us. Given how poor we were at that last week (and the first 3) - my hopes aren't high. The Lions have made a mockery of the NAB cup - so much so that I wonder if they'll have their winners cheque revoked! Nonetheless, they do well what we are rubbish at - and without Mitch Clark we'll struggle. Last year, we won the inside 50 count but lost the game by ten goals. I don't think we'll win the inside 50 count this year, but I think the result will be about the same. The X factor in this game is the impact a win could have. Last year, the win took until round 10. The Dees won 3 of their next 12 (albeit against expansion sides) but also could easily have got up over the Dockers and Power. That'd make it 6 wins out of 13 to round out the year. Some confidence, some run forward of the ball and some good ball use around 50 could be massive. I don't think we've turned the corner that early this season. 3 rounds of disgusting footy and two quarters of inept, pressure-free footy does not disappear that easily. Things in the Lions' favour - home ground advantage (this really showed against the Crows) and Redden getting off at the tribunal is huge for them. They've won the last two against the Dees as well. Things in the Dees' favour - momentum. 12 goals in a quarter could do monumental things. My tip: Lions by 57 Hawthorn v North Melbourne North Melbourne will become one of the best 1-4 teams in history. That's not to say that they are very good. But 1-4 they ain't. A deserved win arrived with a bang on Sunday. As the confidence of a win arrived, the Roos put their foot down against a hapless Lions side. Similar to Freo in that they need the whole side on board, the 'Roos have many lesser lights that can make life frustrating for the opposition. For Hawthorn, however, lesser lights are just that. They're a well-drilled, skillful, arrogant unit who know how to win. 42-55 point wins against top 8 sides underscores their dominance (the thing with Geelong is, well, bizarre!). North will try hard, they'll be tough to shake at times, but Hawthorn will control the match, will keep goals when it matters and, at the end of the day, will be too good. Things in the Hawks' favour - they're the best team in the comp at the moment, in form and have won 4 of the last 5 against North. Things in North's favour - the win may knock the monkey from the back and Schoenmakers' injury could free up the mighty Petrie. My tip: Hawks by 27 Game of the Round Bombers Pies Thrashing of the Round Cats Dogs/Dees Lions Toughest to pick Dockers Tigers Upset of the Round Bombers/Tigers Closest tip last week Missed the Dees over GWS by 2 points

Poor umpiring.

My favourite Joffa moment is ANZAC day 2009. Joffa dons the jacket with the Pies about 16 up 26 minutes in. 5 minutes later...

I look forward to when a suitable candidate puts his/her hand up to be MFC president.

Fell asleep at half time, woke up 25 into the third. Me asleep - Pies by 49. Me awake - Tigers by 27. I'm very confused at the moment!

Petterd having a bit of a mare. Bit of a squib and some shocking fumbles. High-pressured game and Collingwood, somehow, hit the front having been largely controlled through the middle.

I feel like it's just the sort of game that Collingwood win. Will be good to see some very good midfields go at it. A key could be keeping the oppostion's half back line accountable. To this end I think Collingwood has the advantage - with blokes like Blair, Sidebottom, Sinclair and Elliot roaming.

Our treatment of Toumpas has been terrible and it continues. What are our development plans for players? What is going on at this football club? How does Watts put in two shockers, get dropped, not play anywhere and then return straight away?! Poor Jimmy, he must be a bit disheartened and probably pretty confused. Especially when guys like Sylvia get selected week in week out. This week has reminded me of BH's line - this club gives me nothing.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-04-18/text-messages-reveal-danks-demons-involvement/4637954

"When it comes to taking a life-and-death approach to all matters football, he is no Joel Selwood. But then again, no one else is, either." I'm sure Joel Selwood has something to say about that.

And the good games just keep rolling. Obvious aside, we've been blessed the last couple of weeks and this weekend (whilst lacking the blockbusters) is probably more competitive due to less one-sided games. It should be a great round to watch but, again, a nightmare to tip! Sydney v Geelong Bang. Cracking start to the round between two giants who just continue to get the job done. Not just lovers of the tough, contested ball these two are sides who can rip you to shreds in minutes (as North Melbourne have discovered in consecutive weeks). Sydney have just gone against the newbies and were battling until a quarter of magic against the Roos saw them comfortably win. The Cats, too, have just been going but against higher quality opposition. This match is the biggest test for both of these sides and they'll be up for the fight. Mcveigh, Parker, Kennedy, Hannebury, O'Keefe and Jack are all in ripping form and are all big-bodied, pretty well-skilled players who can go all day. For some reason, they are still quite underrated in my mind. The Cats mids are equally as talented but I'm not sure if they can match the Swans for depth with Johnson, Chapman, Bartel and Selwood running through. Mind you, they keep producing ripping kids. Vitally, the Swans mids are goal-kicking mids - a dangerous proposition for any side to encounter. The crucial match-up will be Hawkins v Richards IMO. The Swans by 7 in a low-scoring game. Hawthorn v Fremantle What to say about their last outings. The Hawks looked very far off the mark in the first half against the Pies, but looked a completely different side after the long change and rampaged to a crushing win. The Dockers were pretty much the opposite. They controlled most of the first half and should have led by more than 6 goals - and boy did it come back to bite them. It's the problem I see with the Lyon game style. Defensively they are great, but unless they are playing a very poor side they'll struggle to really put them away. This means that some quick clearances and some momentum can work against them in a big way because their lead can evaporate quickly. I think this is where they will struggle on the weekend. I can see them keeping the Hawks quiet for a half, but I think Hawthorn will ease away in the second and I don't see Freo scoring too much (part of me thinks they'll finish on a pretty low total). Hawks by 32 (depending on the last quarter!) Richmond v Collingwood I said in the pre-match summary there were no blockbusters. I lied. This'll be, yet another, 80,000 plus crowd at the G and it promises to be a ripping game. The Tigers are in great form and the Pies are, well, the Pies. The midfield duel will be fascinating as will the Cloke/Riewoldt. Of note on Riewoldt is that, in terms of Dreamteam average, Collingwood is easily his least liked team - averaging only 51.3. The Pies smalls are very hard to stop - I love the look of Elliot and it's good to see Dwyer getting a run. For mine, this'll be a matter of the cooler heads keeping calm when it matters most and, to that end, I have to go with the Pies. This is just the kind of match that they win. Collingwood by 17-21 St Kilda v Essendon Goddard returns...kind of. I don't like Essendon, and don't much care for the Saints either, so this will be short. The Bombers had one of the most amazing wins you're likely to see last Friday. The Saints got the job done (being the flat-track bullies they are). By all rights Essendon should win this game (they are a far better team) but, and I'll say this for the next few weeks most likely, they are due for a massive let down. Against a fired up Saints team who won the corresponding fixture last year by 72 points, I think it may just be this week. Saints by 14 West Coast v Carlton The fun just rolls on in the Wild West. Carlton are not as abad as 0-3 suggests, but that may not stop them from ending the round 0-4. West Coast wouldn't have gone home 100% thrilled with their win over the Dees and will be looking at righting their home record after terrible showings against the Hawks and Dockers. The Blues have been good against the Eagles the last two times over there and they had chances to win both of their opening games. Carlton should have the edge in the midfield, as is often the case, but they lack class around the ground and that will hurt them in front of the Eagles' home fans. West Coast are not the polished unit they were, however, and will struggle to roll the Blues. Look for a tussle all night with West Coast prevailing by 5 Gold Coast v Port Adelaide Arguably the two surprise packets of the season face off - and they meet with a 1 all head-head record against one another. Gold Coast are immense from stoppages and general centre work and, especially up there, are very tough to shake. I'm looking for the post-Showdown blues to strike down the Power. Gold Coast by 11 Melbourne v GWS Yuck. A lot has been said about us, I feel I could go onto it but there's enough threads on here already to talk about the Dees (as I've said, I would rather these threads discussed any issues relating to footy outside of the MFC bubble). GWS were woeful last week, make no mistake about it. Against a poor side at their home ground they came out and, at one stage, trailed by 45-0. Plucky against the Power and a dis-interested Sydney, the Giants were brought back to Earth through poor skill, decision making and discipline. The first quarter is massive and for the love of God the Dees must tag Ward. It sounds stupid, but good players ALWAYS play well against Melbourne. We need to get a bit dirty, a bit in and under and put the clamps on the opposition's best players. They'll kick some goals, they'll get up and about at times, but we won last year by 78 and should have too much "class" and "desire" around the ground to get up. Dees by 43 Adelaide v Footscray I loved seeing the underDogs dismantle the Lions in Round 1. Since then, they've been brought back to Earth. Hard. Look for that to continue. Adelaide will be absolutely fuming that they let the Showdown slip and will be out to take revenge. Expecting big ones from Thompson, Danger Mouse, van Berlo and Vince. Expecting the Mullet to dob 6. Crows by 73 North Melbourne v Brisbane You'd have gotten very good money for these sides to by 1-5 cumulatively at this stage of the year, with a shared percentage around 78. You'd have been even more surprised to find that that one win, out of six, came against the Suns by 2 points. Brisbane have, simply, been a massive letdown. The flair, creativity, aggression and excitement they promised in the NAB cup is completely dormant. North, meanwhile, were very competitive against the Pies, should've beaten the Cats and led the Swans until they conceded an avalanche. They've been harder to read than the writing on Frodo's precious ring. They'll love getting back to the sandpit. Brisbane, meanwhile, won't be thrilled to return - having won only 2 of their last 11 there in the last 3 seasons - 3 of those losses (and none of those wins) against North. North should be too good and will enjoy a bit of momentum as they sense a win. North by 35 Game of the Round Swans Cats/Tigers Pies Thrashing of the Round Crows over the Dogs Upset of the Round Suns over Power. Possibly Saints over Bombers. Closest tip last week: Missed Saints over GWS by 1 point

Of the Dees players that played in our last finals win, only Jamar, Jones, Davey and Sylvia remain. Only one of those players is a leader.

This was the thread about the apparent Storm players' views.

Pederson/Gillies? Byrnes has played mostly as a forward hasn't he? I do agree with you, though. The club clearly see the need to improve the midfield. Save for getting in a Watson/Mitchell there's no quick fix, though.

Bailey/Connolly

Talk about an over-reaction. Where in my last post did I say that you were having a crack at Toumpas? And this line "Rubbish to say we stuffed up on a pick after 9 quarters!" is taken from the thread title - so it's not like I was being unfair. I agree with what you have to say about Wines - cracking start to the year.

My response is exactly what I'd have said to you if you asked me at the pub. The fact that I don't agree with you doesn't mean I didn't put thought into my post. My position is that he shouldn't be in the side - that was pretty clear after his first few involvements of the Port game. We've handled him terribly and that has lead to his selection already being questioned. I wish supporters could just look at a player and applaud him for a great performance rather than the perennial need to make it Melbourne-related (this isn't focused on you P Man).