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At the break of Gawn

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Posts posted by At the break of Gawn

    30 minutes ago, Micksdemons said:

    Do you actually know how many games we have won without Lewis since he’s been at the club ?? 

     

    1 ( One ) Sydney - Get off his back !

     

    Well according to his presser, Simon Goodwin agrees with me, although acknowledges his importance in structures and communication.

    If Lever can play that general role, then I can’t see a need for Lewis.

    • Like 1

    5 minutes ago, At the break of Gawn said:

    So wrapt with that win. Should’ve gone to the game in hindsight...

    Can anyone please explain that second 50m against Harmes? I saw no player run past the Hawks player at all. They didn’t show a replay either.

    I just rewatched that part. It was there but only just. Was bloody borderline.

    • Like 1

    12 minutes ago, praha said:

    Petracca is a potato. Trade him ffs.

    Apart from that horrible set shot, Petracca has looked dangerous all game.

    He’s got the yips when the pressure is on. Needs a psychologist for his goal kicking.

    • Like 5

    5 minutes ago, Deehumanizing said:

    Unfortunately, it's not, we are stuck with him until 2022. Our window is nailed shut. Goodwin could not get the job done inheriting a good list. There is no evidence that he can rebuild anything, or develop a plan B, his job is safe as long as contracted. 

    I agree that his job isn’t on the line right now, but no one likes being under unnecessary pressure. Having said that, coaches get sacked all the time mid contract so, it’s not iron clad.

    2 minutes ago, Left Foot Snap said:

    I would play OMac forward, and agree with Bitters - Jones to the forward line. 

    Need oMac back for Roughead so Frost can play on Mitchell Lewis and/or McEvoy resting.

    I’m actually a fan of the changes. 

    Harmes and Stretch on the Wing. 

    Salem in the middle

    Fritsch and Tmac back forward

    Hunt running off half back

    My biggest concern is the weather. Looks like it is now forecasted to rain during the afternoon.

     

    • Like 2

    17 minutes ago, Jaded said:

    Have genuinely lost all interest. My last game I’ll be attending until Queens Bday as I’m off overseas for 3 weeks, and actually feel relieved. Usually I’d pay to watch the games lives while I’m away, but I’ve decided a break from this club for 3 weeks will be good. 

    So yeah, football on Saturday. Meh. 

    I actually miss the Sunday games. At least the disappointment only occurred the last few hours of the weekend rather than on a Saturday or Friday where it lingers round longer spoiling your weekend. 

    • Like 3

    I hope it doesn't rain or be a wet game otherwise it might be a replay of round 4 last year. I still have rude flashbacks of O'Meara running past every Melbourne player on the field to kick a soccer goal.

    Forecast says it may rain in a bit in the morning, but hoping it holds out until Sunday.

    ·

    Edited by At the break of Gawn

    Not sure how anyone could draw some conclusion that Pert could be responsible for this drop off - he's only been around for like 5 minutes. Has even made a decision yet that would affect the FD? At least he got Jaguar on board (albeit one year)

    More interested to see how he responds at the end of the year if the poor year continues. If he's a good operator, you'll see a clear out of underperforming assistant coaches, and hopefully an appointment of a world class fitness coach to replace the already exiting Misson.

     

    • Like 1

    10 hours ago, Collar-Jazz-Knee said:

    I have a theory that early season games favour the quicker sides, but this advantage drops considerably as the season goes on. The reason for this is that the player's bodies become more fatigued from continuous games and the toll it takes on the body. Hence why we had a fairly good run come finals as we were well built with the inside game.

    The aim is to get a fairly even mixture however, as not enough quicker, more skilled players means it is harder to get easier wins earlier in the season.

    Really good point. That reminds me of a comment on SEN I heard a week-or-two ago where they said the winter months slow things down a bit, bigger body midfielders have more dominance. I'll definitely revisit this thread at the back end of the year and see if this trend continues. 

    1 hour ago, Rusty Nails said:

    Is that just before the bye or all matches since Goody took over ABG?

    All the stats referring to other grounds (non-mcg) in my post were across the 3 seasons (so before and after bye rounds). I didn't think there was much of a sample of other grounds before the bye rounds so included the entire season.

    8 minutes ago, Rusty Nails said:

    Would much rather get off to a good start than come from behind most years ABG.

    Absolutely. Funnily enough going into this season, our record at the MCG before the bye rounds was 27% winning ratio. So, this poor start isn't exactly out of the ordinary when you consider how poorly we play the MCG in the earlier part of the season.

    Begs the question, why do we get it "right" at the latter part of the season and can win at the MCG (71%)? Is it just game style and the sample size probably isn't big enough, or is it conditioning, or is it something else?

    21 minutes ago, Rusty Nails said:

    As I've said for the last few years, with our list and game style we will be much better off and improve our chances of making finals more regularly playing out of Marvel

    Yes, but the reality is that isn’t going to happen while our home is the G.

    The fact that our winning % is quite decent after the bye round might actually strengthen the theory regarding a conditioning issue our list has playing on big grounds early in the season.

    Posted ·

    Edited by At the break of Gawn
    -

    I started writing this post talking about our poor record at the MCG (which I know is often discussed here due to our poor leg spead, lack of spread, two way running etc), but when I looked more into the data, I was horrified at what I found when it came to our record at the MCG before the mid-season bye. 

    Here are the numbers since Goodwin has taken over:

    Total games at the  MCG before the bye rnd: 15 games

    Wins: 3

    Losses: 12

    Winning % of 20%

    Average losing margin of 19pts, avg. winning margin of 56pts. 

    Avg. Points for: 88, avg points against: 92

    If you take out the two Carlton games from here, it drops to 1 win (North Melb) and hence a winning % of 7% (1 win from 13 games)

    So, over the last 2 and a qtr seasons, before the bye we've only ever beaten two teams at the MCG, North Melbourne and Carlton.. Geezus. 

    Our worst streak of losses at the MCG is currently 4 (equal to rnds 4-9 of 2017 vs rnds 1-6 of 2019). I wonder if they'll achieve 5 losses on a trot this weekend?

    On the flip side, after the mid-bye round, our winning % jumps up to 71% (10 wins, 4 losses).

    --

    For those interested, our record overall at the MCG under Goody is:

    13 Wins, 16 losses, 44% winning ratio.

    That is bloody poor for a team's home ground. Can't think of many 'good' teams who have as poor of a record. 

    -

    Also, for those interested at our winning % at other venues, it is:

    Marvel: 6W, 1L - 86%

    Gabba: 2W 0L - 100%

    Ade Oval: 2W 1L: 66%

    Domain & Optus combined: 2W, 1L: 66%

    TIO (darwin): 1W 1L: 50%

    TIO Traeger (Alice): 2W 0L: 100%

    GMHBA : 0W 2L: 0%

    SCG: 1W 0L: 100%

    Blundstone: 0W 1L: 0%

    Manuka: 0W 1L: 0%

    So one last sobering stat, for all grounds where we've played 3 or more games at over the last 2 and a bit seasons, the MCG winning % is the worst. 

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 2
    • Sad 1

    15 hours ago, Nasher said:

    You’ve seen how fast lies spread in the footy world. “They turned up unfit” and “they drank their own bathwater” is circulating about our players at a furious pace, even on this forum where we’re supposed to be on their side. I think he has every right to respond with a rebuttal. Yes, obviously we would all prefer the club responded by hitting the magic “get good at footy” switch again instead of talking (nobody moreso than Max I reckon), but of course since that doesn’t exist, he is allowed to defend himself.

    I honestly hate the "drank their own bathwater" comments. It implies that each individual in the entire team has that mindset when that just simply can't be true. I can accept that a few might have that mindset/attitude but to say that every individual has a shared mindset of arrogance is just absurd. 

    Defence is still a problem. We let Richmond had something like 70 inside 50s. That shows poor pressure up the ground and poor defensive work in our forward line. We are a forward half team. Good forward half teams don’t let the opposition get 70 inside 50s

    in regards to our forward problems, I see it mainly as a problem with our talls not marking it or bringing it to ground for our smaller players to do the work. Lowering the eyes and all that is great on turn over entries when the opposition defence isn’t set up yet, but it’s like threading a needle when the opposition is fully set up. In those cases taking a big contested mark or getting a good ground ball opportunity from a small forward is a good way to score.

    Another thing worth mentioning is that in many ways I think making a Prelim smoothed over for what was largely a good but not great season.

    Before rnd22 we hadn’t beaten a top 8 team, and we were still dropping games we were expected to win. E.g. Saints rnd 15, Sydney Rnd 21, inexplicably lost to Cats after being 30pts up.

     

    • Like 2

    12 minutes ago, P-man said:

    The balance of the Blues list is simply better than ours. Got their pillars sorted and have stocked the midfield in the last couple of drafts with quality inside and outside.

    And to think that C Curnow, arguably their best player behind Cripps last season, is still to come back into this side. They are set.

    Almost the same team we played last year (minus Walsh) that we belted by 100pts.

    when your out of form, everyone looks better than you. 

    Having said that, I think their spine is bloody good but you’d expect that when the number of high draft picks they’ve had.

    Max Gawn penned a good article today in the Herald Sun. Pretty sure it’s behind a pay wall though.

    He basically said that being unfit is a myth and a lot of the players hit PBs in pre-season time trials.

    The team knew there were no guarantees about playing finals again and knew they had to go again (so it’s not a bath water thing)

    Basically said we haven’t improved our defence as a team while other teams have over the off season.

    1 minute ago, poita said:

    I still can't work out whether Viney took on Stack thinking he could run straight through him, or was completely oblivious to his presence. Either way it was extraordinarily poor football. 

    I agree with other posters - if there is any thought that Viney could benefit from having surgery, just get it done. He has had little influence to date, so we will hardly be worse off getting games into a kid.

    He definitely tried to take it on. 99% of players in the league would have side stepped it which was the smart thing to do and would have been beneficial for the team. Almost feel sometimes Viney is just out there to show how tough he is rather than actually play football and help his side win. 

    We don’t need courageous acts that amount to nothing. We need match winners and that’s what a captain should do.

    • Like 4
    • Shocked 1

    I just want to see more midfield rotation during the game. Collingwood are the best at cycling through their midfield and we need to do it better too. It’s how we are going to overcome our two way running issue.

    Midfield: Cycle Brayshaw, Oliver, Viney, Harmes, AnB, Melksham, Petracca, Salem, Jones, Garlett. 

    Wings: Cycle through Stretch, Hunt, Brayshaw, Fritsch.

    Forwards: core players being Tmac, Weid or Smith (whoever is selected), Lockhart. Preuss when not rucking.

    Defence: Core being Frost, Hore, Omac, Lewis.

    Hibberd on Breust

    Hore  on Gunston 

    Frost on Roughead 

    Omac on Mitchell Lewis

    If Preuss plays, they’ll put Ceglar on him.

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