At the break of Gawn

Rain is here

Did anyone hear Craig McRae say to the reporters “See you in a couple of weeks” at the end of his presser on Tuesday?

Its been reported by Code/HS that his little quip angered a few of our officials and some players

1 minute ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

I thought out form was pretty decent in the last 4 rounds of last year. That's why I was blind sighted by going out in straight sets.

Beat Freo by 7 goals in Perth, a 7 point loss to Pies in a high quality game, a 5 point win over Carlton and 10 goal win at the GABBA. All were top half of the ladder teams.

I think last year was more injury related than form related.

That’s true, but Sydney had won 7 in a row before facing us, yet the amount of confidence going into last year’s QF was pretty high from memory.

I’m hoping the Pies are like us from last year and we’re like the Swans (except for the GF thumping)

I haven’t done a game day tip for some time, but I’m trying to convince myself that end of season form does really matter and that’s why we were exposed in the finals last year and went out in straight sets. Surely the end of season form we have this year and the end of season form the Pies have does mean something and we will see that translate into a win tonight.

Dees by 22.

If we lose tonight and lose against Carlton next week, I don’t think I’ll ever be able to trust in-season form again!

Rain is only an hour away.

What is the consensus on the rain? Do we want it to come because of how tall Collingwood have gone or are we still wary about our ability to win in the rain?

Goody did address it in the presser and he seemed confident we’ve learnt from those experiences and are better placed, so maybe rain isn’t a bad thing.

5 minutes ago, IRW said:

The Pies were loading 

For the past 6 weeks, Melbourne is 3 for scoring and 3 for points against. We’re in the top right hand corner of the Premiership window metrics.

Collingwood is 5th for points for and 14th for points against.

Just for reference, Geelong was 1 and 1 the last 6 weeks in 2022 before finals.

We might not win tomorrow night, but the Pies aren’t winning the flag.

2 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

He’s been our number 1 supporter all year from the media fraternity.

His mate King jumps on and off us depending on the weekends result.

Not as much as 2021. Joey was calling us premiers in round 2.

5 minutes ago, Demon17 said:

Agree. If Cox and Cameron are in the 22, therein lies our bigeest problem, unless it buckets down

Gawn will be D50 most of the night. With McDonald there we have that outlet kick. The fact is, it’s going to be a wet game. Hibbo’s cleanliness at ground level will be essential to our d50. If it was a dry game, I have no doubt Turner would have played.

Also, watch out for an early tactical sub of Cox or Cameron if it does rain. Ginnivan will come on and we’ll need someone for him which suits the Hibbo choice.

So I had some time on my hands and using Fox Footy's Premiership window metrics, I've collected the past 6 weeks For/Against Scores and this is what it currently looks like. 

One thing I can say with certainty, that Collingwood are no where near the premiership window over the last 6 weeks. 

Port is the best team over the last 3 weeks, however we're the best team over the last 6 weeks. The only thing that's dragged us down the last 3 weeks is our points scored. To be honest, this is my main concern going into tomorrow night. Will we kick a big enough score?

This is the graph for 3 weeks

While this is the graph for the past 6 weeks

Hopefully the media asks Goody about Smith.

2 minutes ago, Flag 2021 said:

Tough at the selection table this week.

If Cox plays we must select Grundy (sorry). I hear T Mac is cherry ripe so he's in.

Wouldn't like to drop Laurie. Judd McVee hasn't lowered his colours to anybody this year and he can sort Elliot.

Melks and Turner out (sorry again) with Smithy as sub.

I’ll sell you my house if Grundy is selected.

2 minutes ago, Gawndy the Great said:

Just saw Ash Johnson ruled out. Was unlikely to have played anyway but still remember the bag he kicked on us last year.

 

Pleasantly relieved by this. It’s those sort of players that bob up against us.

3 minutes ago, DubDee said:

IN T Mac Tommo and Hibbo

OUT Melksham Turner and Bowey (stiff as)

 

Three changes is too destabilising for mine. I thought Turner was actually pretty good and I don’t really see any Collingwood forward getting a hold of him. If Cox wasn’t playing you could take out Turner and put Hibberd in which could give coverage on Elliott.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Goody had Hibbo as sub as a back up on Elliott

In: Hibberd (Sub), Tmac

Out: Laurie (Sub), Melksham 

Listening to Hoyne on Sportsday and he thinks the biggest threat is Elliott (I’m also worried about him). He’s Collingwood’s no.1 rated player the last 6 weeks.

Salem was also called out. At the moment he’s a bottom 60 player in the competition which is alarming.

Not sure if anyone else saw the Herald Sun Finals Crystal ball article, but this is the summary:

Premiers: 

Collingwood x 8

Melbourne: x 3

Brisbane: x 2

Runner Up:

Brisbane x 8

Collingwood x 1

Melbourne x 2

Port x 1

Giants x 1

Straight Sets:

Port x 9

Melb x 3

Pies x 1

Also, a big [censored] you to Scott Gullan who thinks we'll go out in straight sets and somehow thinks Port will get past Brisbane and go all the way to the grand final with all their patchy form/injuries.

The decision to play both Cox and Cameron will backfire for Collingwood with the wet weather. Did anyone see Cox play against Port in slippery conditions? Had about 2 touches and was a liability.

14 hours ago, Nudge said:

 

Which show did he call it a fluke? That’s pretty disrespectful if true. We’re the only team with 3 consecutive top 4 finishes at the moment. We’re nothing like the 2016 dogs.

1 hour ago, bandicoot said:

This is the most bizarre stat…

collingwood haven’t played in the rain in any of their 23 games this year.  

Melbourne have played 6 games in the wet.

How can a side go all year and avoid the rain? 

in any case, Thursday night might be the first time all year collingwood have played with a greasy football. 

Are you sure? I think their win against Port in Adelaide it rained or at least seemed like a slippery game.

35 minutes ago, Jaded No More said:

Weather forecast on my app has changed again. Rain expected to stop by 6pm 🤷‍♀️

Its going to be a long 3 days 

Weather app has gone up to 2-8mm (Friday is just as bad). My only hope is that because the forecast is saying most likely in the afternoon and evening it pushes back to late in the night. More often than not, the rains comes later not earlier.

16 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

So N Daicos started running today and will be playing a critical final 4 nights later.

Righto.

Pies have officially ruled him out now.

26 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

They've added in a chance of hail on Thursday in the Bom forecast just issued

If the weather forecast doesn’t change I’m going to put money on the Pies. I just don’t think we have enough good ball users to take smart options and try and hit up targets in the wet. It’s a real risk that we’ll revert to bombing it in and get caught on the rebound with chaos ground ball that Elliott and the like will love.

Given the weather forecast is expecting rain, what do we need to do differently to ensure we can win this time? I worry about our ability to score in wet weather if our smalls have quiet games. If you take the Carlton game for example, our smalls struggled to fire. Collingwood has superior forwards in wet weather games. Miocek (pretty agile player), Elliot, Hill, McReery will all trouble us.

I’m glad we didn’t take him. He would have been just a prequel to Scully. Stay for 2 years then leave. 

We all know Watts never lived up to his potential, but I’ve often wondered if shipping him off due to his lack of professionalism sent a message to the group which led to mass buy-in from this group on professionalism. I also think with Watts’ lack of competitiveness, the recruiting staff made that a real focus for future picks. So all in all, I wouldn’t change a thing as we might not have had the 2021 flag.

1 hour ago, Wodjathefirst said:

My biggest fear is the weather 

Same. I hope the forecast changes because at the moment it’s 0-5mm of rain. If it rains, we’re doomed.