At the break of Gawn

Their game plan is our kryptonite and they know how to disarm our strengths. Remember, Longmuir was a Buckley assistant who had a very good record against Goodwin. Buckley even sat in their coaches box last year at the MCG where we lost.

They have excellent contested midfielders who know that we swarm at the contest and don’t keep separation. With Oliver no where near it, Rivers beaten, Sparrow just a shadow, it was too much for Viney. I can’t see us beating this Freo side for a number of years with that midfield. Lever was horrible down back. 

On a positive, I thought Petty was very good around the ground and our best tall forward of the ball. That was probably his second best rated game.

This time I think we will respond though and beat GWS.

2 minutes ago, Newport34 said:

And don’t mention the clearances. According to Binman they’re a irrelevant stat.

We really struggle against good clearance teams who have hard 2 way running mids. Brayshaw, Serong and Young just embarrassing whole midfield. Lost it at selection with no Fullarton. Draper is lazy and apart from Merrett the Bombers have a very average midfield compared to the Dockers.

Any update on the rain? 

Regardless of the result today, I think we’re going to have a strong run home.

Only way I see us winning this one is evening up on clearance and it rain during the game to help stop their uncontested game. 

Can’t understand the supporters who want the Dogs to win. With their superior percentage they could easily take our spot if we drop one we’re expecting to win. The Cats aren’t missing the 8 this year. Got the easiest run home.

Tiger and Cats tonight please. Even if the Tigers keep it close it will help.

Could Pendles and Sidebottom’s last AFL game be against us?

Essendon's loss is great for us.

We will be 5th at the end of the round assuming the Swans and the Giants win.

We will be 4th at the end of the round if the Swans win and the Giants lose...

lol go Crows!

Wow Martin really is a serial ducker 

This is the worst defending I’ve seen all year by two AFL teams. Absolute garage and can’t believe Essendon are in the 8.

3 hours ago, Demonsone said:

Goody proved the afl world wrong with not playing a genuine ruck last week but Jackson & Darcy will have a field day, It’s obvious Fullerton can’t ruck in Goodwin  eyes, very weird 

Have you seen the weather forecast? It’s going to be wet. Darcy will be a liability out there.

I’m still fascinated by who goes out next week when Max comes in. Is Sunday Petty’s last chance? Or is he a permanent fixture and they’ll demote someone like the Kolt to sub?

1 hour ago, Jaded No More said:

It really annoys me that we've let this nothing club have the wood over us. 

It's time to put an end to it.

They’ve won the last 2, but wouldn’t necessarily say they’ve got the wood over us. They haven’t beaten us at Optus Stadium yet…

I've done the ladder predictor at least a dozen times, and I'm fairly confident 13 wins will be enough if expected results go our way (e.g. Dogs lose to Geelong and Sydney, Port lose to Carlton, Sydney and Freo at Optus etc) and we beat Port and the Giants. In my opinion the most crucial clash that can help us stay in with 13 wins is the Q clash game between the Suns and Brisbane. If Brisbane can knock the Suns off at HBS, then I'm fairly confident the Suns won't catch us based off their terrible away record while still assuming they beat West Coast and Richmond away. 

I've got the Suns, Port and Hawks all finishing on 12 wins. The Dogs and Pies on 11 wins.

My run home prediction is:

Freo - L

Giants - W

Dogs - W

Port - W

Suns - L

Pies - L

Although I'm pretty sure the Pies will be dead and buried by round 24, my past trauma makes me somehow expect to lose that game. 

5 hours ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Because it wasn’t at the MCG. Pure and simple.

I haven’t heard the media devalue it but many of the average fan on social media has.

It's a cheap and ignorant shot by opposition fans. If you look at it objectively, we had to beat a fellow Victorian team at a neutral venue. The win ranks far higher than the Pies (an MCG tenant club) beating an interstate side at the MCG who plays there 1-2 times a year.

As for the media heat on Geelong and Collingwood vs Melbourne. I think the main reason for that is the list profile. When Melbourne won the flag, the expectation was that we had such a core in their prime we could do it again and again. Geelong's win was the "oh they've defied all odds and Dad's army has won the elusive flag they've been chasing for 10 years" storyline. Collingwood is also the oldest list now and a lot of people didn't predict them to win it again in '24. I think if you go back to AFL pre-season predictions for 2022 and about 90% of punters would have tipped Melbourne.

Gawn tends to have minimal impact in the wet because his work around stoppage is average and his real value is marking around the ground. I actually think we'd be better with JvR in the ruck again as his follow up work at stoppage is elite and keeping Petty down forward to try and nullify Pearce/Cox.

Ultimately, winning next week is far more important in my mind. Freo is going to make the 8 regardless, while GWS is a game we simply have to win to stop them from taking our spot. Rest Gawn for one more week to ensure he's 100% and ready to go against Briggs. 

25 minutes ago, WERRIDEE said:

I'm backing Gawn in. 

B: Lever, May, McVee

HB: Bowey, McDonald, Salem

C: Windsor, Rivers, Langdon

HF: Tholstrup, Petty, Neal-Bullen

F: Fritsch, van Rooyen, Melksham

FOLL: Gawn, Viney, Pickett

IC: Moniz-Wakefield, Oliver, Sparrow, Chandler

SUB: Turner

EMERG: Laurie, Fullerton, Woewodin

 

There's no way Turner is being demoted to sub. He's our best set shot for goal at the moment. 

I'm not sure the coaches think Melksham and Petty can be in the same forward line, but if they do, then I'd say Tholstrup would have to be sub. 

The BOM has rain predicted all week in Perth. I’d be going in with almost the same line up. My only query is with Petty, he really struggled against Draper and it was only when JvR went in the ruck that the game turned. Petty got beaten quite a few times against McKay but when he did bring the ball to ground, it usually resulted in a goal for us.

A wet game would be glorious for us. Freo are the worst wet weather team in the league, yes worse than us. They can only play an outside game. If we bring it in nice and tight and make it a contested game, they will really struggle.

Terrific win. I’m glad I went to the game in the end even if it was with a Bombers supporter mate.

I know we conceded the last 4 but it didn’t really feel like a 7 goal win, more like a 5 goal win so to give up 2 more than that is only a slight disappointment.

Oliver, Windsor, Rivers, McVee, Turner, JVR all huge. I thought it was a really even performance. Petty got smashed in the ruck and wasn’t great up forward but I think we need him for next week to occupy Freo’s defence.

If it continues to rain I think we’ll win. Dons playing too much of a dry ball game.

Hope it starts raining on the way to the G. Could be a relatively dry night if not.

13 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

I'm continuing to hope that the "hunter" v "hunted" mindset shift helps us. I was hoping it would vs Brisbane and it did.

This is another relatively rare game (for 2021-24) where we're underdogs, and indeed it feels like no one out there thinks we can win, let alone will win (Gawn out obviously a factor there). That lack of expectation, indeed the opposite, hopefully lifts the pressure off. And the opposite for them.

No Gawn definitely adds to the unpredictability. A win would be awesome as we’ll only need to go 3-3 to make the 8 from next week.