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mog

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Posts posted by mog

  1. I think this shows, how reading a quote out of context , compared to actually listening to the quote , can give a complete different impression.

    If you just looked at the quote in the tweet, as i saw NickDal Santo do on fox footy last night, it comes across as fair crack at Lyon. But actually listening to the quote it's really just a perfect comparision of Goody to a coach with a completely different old school style in Ross Lyon

    • Like 1
  2. What rule is that?

    http://www.afl.com.au/afl-hq/the-afl-explained/rookie-players

    FATHER-SON – ROOKIE PRE-SELECTION

    The Father-Son Rule previously applied to players selected at the National Draft. Under the rule, other AFL clubs can bid for eligible players who have been nominated under the Father-Son Rule by an eligible club. The nominating club can select the eligible player by forfeiting its next available pick in the draft if a bid has been made by another club. If there is no bid from another club, the nominating club forfeits its last pick in the National Draft.

    A club can pre-select an eligible player as a Category A rookie between the Pre-Season and Rookie Drafts (with the player’s consent) provided the player had nominated for but was not selected by another club at either the National or Pre-Season Drafts. In that case, the relevant club would forfeit its last available selection in the Rookie Draft to take the player.

    This is the rule from last year, and with the new bidding system, obviously the National Draft rules have changed. But with the changes to the biding system only effecting players bid in the first 3 rounds it shouldn't effect the rules for Father-Son Rookies

  3. I thought it had to have been done by yesterday.

    Yeah your right, nominations were monday

    From Afl website:

    Monday December 1 - AFL delisted player free agency period (3) ends. AFL club list lodgement (3) and TPP estimates. International players inclusion on rookie list form; Scholarship players rookie list form lodged; Father/son and Academy pre-selected rookie nominations.

    So Brisbane decided not to nominate him, so he's free to be taken by anyone

  4. Sorry, mog. All wrong. The chance that a set of 72 people all have unique birthdays is very low indeed.

    Ok, yeah when i was looking at it afterwards it seemed wrong, looking at the birthday paradox it's over 99.9% chance that a player will share a birthday.

    I was only calculating the likely hood of each individual draftee having a teammate drafted with the same birthday, not the whole group .

    If each team drafted 4 players, each player would have 3 teammates drafted with 1/365 of having the same birthday as them, so each player has 3/365(0.8%) Chance of having a team mate with the same birthday.With 72 players or 71 pairs of player combinations, with a 3/365 chance of having a team mate drafted with same birthday, making 213/365 or 58% chance of a team drafting team mates having the same birthday each year.

    But i'm probably completely wrong

  5. Ignoring overage players, If each team on average takes 4 players then 72 players are drafted then it's 71/365.25 that 2 people with the same birthday will get drafted. then it's a further 3/71 that that player will be drafted to the same team.

    so that makes it 216/25932.75 which is 0.83% chance that 2 players with the same birthday will drafted to the same team each year

  6. Yeah, that is possible... But, Brayshaw has a FAR superior inside game to both Scully and Trengove - and Brayshaw compares well with Martin/Wines, who have transitioned very well into the AFL. Brayshaw does all the 1% plays, he tackles, gathers, crashes, bashes, he is a go-getter - and a dual sided player. IMO Brayshaw is an even safer bet than Jack Viney was.

    Petracca is more likely to bust than Brayshaw - but also has a higher ceiling. But even drawing comparisons between Petracca and Scully/Trengove, I'd say that Petracca is no doubt the better athlete - and one of the better athletes to comes through since Dangerfield - and also Petracca is physically stronger than Scully/Trengove, arguably better on the inside than both, and stronger in nearly all areas. Trengove was definately classier than Petracca, and hit more targets, looked more silkier - but Petracca is FAR more damaging on the scoreboard than either Scully or Trengove was. In watching a fair amount of Scully pre-draft, a little bit of Trengove and Petracca, I'd say that Petracca is more dominant than Scully/Trengove.

    One thing that stood out in Petraccas highlights is his confidence and absolute dominance on the field.

    Comparing Scully to Petracca as a 18 year olds, the only thing i'd give to Scully is cleaner hands in close, better handballer, and endurance.

    Petracca is clearly the better athlete. Is Bigger, stronger, more aggressive. Is a much better mark, kick, and tackler. He is able to hurt teams offensively on the inside as well as the outside and kick goals much better then Scully was.

    As a 18 year old due to his good hands in close and the smaller bodies he was playing against, Scully was probably as dominant on the inside as Petracca, but due to his small size it's not a dominant skill as transferable as Petracca's . Petracca's a likable kid and team mates seem to like him, unlike Scully

    Winner Petracca

    I'd Rate coming out Trengove and Brayshaw pretty similar, Both as a 18 year old are pretty similar athletically,good speed on first few steps, average top speed though Brayshaw would be quicker, though Trengove would have him on endurance.

    Brayshaw is clearly better inside player, with better strength and size, Though Trengove would be the better outside player and is a better kick on his prefered foot, brayshaw would have him on his non prefered. Both showed the ability to kick a goal, Trengove would of been the better mark and better forward. Both showed aggression and willing to tackle, though due to size and strength, Brayshaw would have Trengove on that. Both really good leaders and natural Footballers. As a 18 year old i don't think there was much between the 2 and Can't split them.

    TIE

    Going on the prospects they were when drafted i'd have to give it to Brayshaw/Petracca over Scully/Trengove, 1 1/2 points to 1

    • Like 4
  7. The current depth is below AFL standard = McKenzie, Matt Jones, Bail, Cross (putting Cross in here because he'll retire in 12 months and his body means he can only play 15 games next year most likely). My hope is that Newton, Michie and Riley step up and be those 9th to 11th best midfielders that make the top teams great.

    Just interested why you think Cross's body will only let him play 15 games next year?

    He missed a few games due to a small break in his leg last year, but that should't effect him going forward.

    He seems to still be in good nick, and his body has held up over his career with no real history of injuries.

    I wouldn't be surprised if his body held up for another 2 years, and if he goes on after next year having more to do with how the younger players have developed and if the club feels they still need him around to help them.

    • Like 2
  8. Often the term outside player is related to that good old term 'receiver'...Salem is much more than that as you are indicating.

    Those who don't think he will go and get his own ball are way off the mark, he is as tough as any of the kids on the list probably bar Viney who is in his own league.

    That he is thought of as outside, to me it due to players being defined as either "outside" or "inside" while in truth most players, as Salem is, are combination of both.

    But If you had to define him as one of those, with this kicking and run and carry skills, you'd define him as outside though he certainly is tough and has a inside game.

    Being classed as Outside really shouldn't be defined as negative, If you had to define Luke Hodge (who Salem was compared to when Drafted) as Inside or Outside, he'd be "Outside" because that's were he does his most damage, but he certainly can win his own ball inside, and is as tough and hard at the contest as anyone in the league .

  9. The way the mechanisms work, there is quite a bit to be said for keeping Trengove on the PL as a key to any Rookie upgrade from Rd 1.

    Essentially, if Trengove was delisted and rookied and we didn't have an LTI to start the season then Harmes or RD2 may not be available for selection.

    We would have 40 players to choose from.

    If Trengove was on the LTI, we would immediately have 43 players to choose from.

    It is not the difference between winning and losing but it is an argument that the club is not worse off for having Trenogve on the PL for 2015.

    Completely Agree with this.

    Also if you delisted Trengove, i'd be confident that nobody would pick him up in the psd, but i reckon St Kilda would be stupid not to pick him up with pick 1 in the rookie draft.

    They would only have to pay the him 50k next year while we pay the rest. And if his foot doesn't recover they can delist him next year.

    Any 18 year old picked in the rookie draft is unlikely to play any games next year if ever , so they are not losing out there. Even with Trengoves injuries he is still a hell of a lot more likely to play meaningful afl games in the future then a rookie pick.

    If we want to pick up Ben Newton and use pick 40, i'd delist and pay out Evans.

    • Like 1
  10. Prove that Hird said it. .

    http://www.couriermail.com.au/sport/afl/bold-call-by-western-bulldogs-on-brendan-mccartney-the-right-one-says-mark-thompson/story-e6frepf6-1226141133996?nk=bb7e083c2137c7010d282f05d89293eb

    Quote from this article

    No wonder James Hird said this of McCartney this year: ''I can't imagine there's a better coach in Australia in the way he develops players and teaches them to play football. I'm surprised someone like that hasn't had a chance at senior level because, in my time in footy, I don't think I've met a better coach.''

    • Like 1
  11. He had surgery on his foot in mid April, so about six months a go

    So going by if he needs to have surgery on his foot again, he won't be running till at least mid April, and i'd imagine they'd be even more cautious this time so probably mid May.

    From that point it's going to take at least 2 months probably 3 before he'd be ready to play a game

    So probably if he plays next year it won't be till the last few rounds

    If he manages to play a few games next year and his foot holds up, Great you resign him

    But the main thing Trengove needs to do for us resign him is to be able to get through several weeks of full training without breaking down. If he can do that you offer him a one year contract or a 2 year contract with performance clauses for the 2nd year.

    If he's still having some pain you delist him, but keep him training with you. Depending how he goes you look to pick him up in pre-season or rookie draft.

    If his foot goes again, at best you offer him a rookie spot, otherwise offer him a coaching job

    • Like 2
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