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  1. BLACK SWAN EVENT COMING by George on the Outer The Finance industry has a favourite allusion to unforeseen events as Black Swan events which is another way of saying we didnt see it coming or we lost your money through no fault of ours The weekend game and result against the Sydney Swans might be forebodingly black, given their systematic destruction of Carlton last week and because the Demons come into the game with only two wins for the season, against the Swans making a serious run for another Premiership! And those two wins were hardly convincing, being against sides immediately above and below them on the ladder at the far Southern end of the competition. Had he not been ruled out with his injury, it's highly likely that the Swans would have rested their star attraction, Adam Goodes anyway (after all his nemesis Cale Morton is no longer playing for the Demons). Their already extensive injury list of Rhyce Shaw (abdomen), Lewis Roberts-Thomson (knee), Lewis Jetta (shin), Sam Reid (quad) and ruckman Shane Mumford (face) should have given any other side a fighting chance and yet, with all these players absent, Carlton were systematically taken apart last week - and in appalling conditions to boot! What chance then a lowly Demons side? Well, we all live in hope of a repeat of this game: With only one more home game at the G scheduled this year, and a win last week to raise the spirits, the Melbourne fans should turn up hoping a Black Swan event might strike the Sydney Ducks just as it did in 2010. ... but then Black Swan events are meant to be once in a lifetime THE GAME Melbourne v Sydney at the MCG Sunday 7 July at 1.10pm HEAD TO HEAD Overall Melbourne 92 wins Sydney 107 wins 2 draws At MCG Melbourne 49 wins Sydney 39 wins 2 draws Since 2000 Melbourne 7 wins Sydney 13 wins 1 draw The Coaches Neil Craig 0 John Longmire 0 MEDIA TV Fox Footy Channel (Live at 1:00pm) RADIO Triple M 3AW THE BETTING Melbourne to win $15.00 Sydney to win $1.01 LAST TIME THEY MET Sydney 21.13.138 defeated Melbourne 5.7.37 at the SCG in Round 8, 2012 It was a humiliation of epic proportions. A heavy defeat remembered by Demon fans only for the fact that it was Liam Jurrah's last hurrah and for Jeremy Howe's mark of the year. THE TEAMS MELBOURNE Backs Lynden Dunn Colin Garland Dean Terlich Half backs Tom McDonald James Frawley Mitch Clisby Centreline Matt Jones Jack Trengove Jack Grimes Half forwards Dean Kent Chris Dawes David Rodan Forwards Jack Fitzpatrick Jack Watts Jeremy Howe Followers Max Gawn Colin Sylvia Nathan Jones Interchange Shannon Byrnes Aaron Davey Daniel Nicholson Jimmy Toumpas Emergencies Cam Pedersen James Sellar James Strauss In Jack Grimes Out Sam Blease (ankle) SYDNEY SWANS Backs Nick Smith Ted Richards Dane Rampe Half backs Nick Malceski Heath Grundy Jarrad McVeigh Centreline Dan Hannebery Josh Kennedy Andrejs Everitt Half forwards Ben McGlynn Sam Reid Jude Bolton Forwards Mike Pyke KurtTippett Luke Parker Followers Shane Mumford Kieren Jack, Ryan O'Keefe Interchange Craig Bird Brandon Jack Jed Lamb Tom Mitchell Emergencies Tony Armstrong Mitch Morton Jesse White In Shane Mumford Sam Reid Out Xavier Richards (quad) Jesse White Although the Swans won last year's grand final and their round 9 clash against the Magpies at the G, you have to go back to the middle of the last decade to find a Sydney victory over Melbourne at the home of football (not forgetting that three Demon home games were "sold" to Canberra in the late 00's). The last two games at the ground between these sides produced a couple of diametrically opposite results:- Round 17, 2010 - Melbourne 22.10.142 defeated Sydney 10.9.69 Round 1, 2011 - Melbourne 11.18.84 drew with Sydney 11.18.84 Since the drawn game, the teams have met only once and again the result was quite the opposite of the one it preceded when the Swans recorded that 101 point victory at the SCG. This week's result is likely to be a Swans win in the range between the 2011 and 2012 results.
  2. The Finance industry has a favourite allusion to unforeseen events as Black Swan events which is another way of saying we didnt see it coming or we lost your money through no fault of ours The weekend game and result against the Sydney Swans might be forebodingly black, given their systematic destruction of Carlton last week and because the Demons come into the game with only two wins for the season, against the Swans making a serious run for another Premiership! And those two wins were hardly convincing, being against sides immediately above and below them on the ladder at the far Southern end of the competition. Had he not been ruled out with his injury, it's highly likely that the Swans would have rested their star attraction, Adam Goodes anyway (after all his nemesis Cale Morton is no longer playing for the Demons). Their already extensive injury list of Rhyce Shaw (abdomen), Lewis Roberts-Thomson (knee), Lewis Jetta (shin), Sam Reid (quad) and ruckman Shane Mumford (face) should have given any other side a fighting chance and yet, with all these players absent, Carlton were systematically taken apart last week - and in appalling conditions to boot! What chance then a lowly Demons side? Well, we all live in hope of a repeat of this game: With only one more home game at the G scheduled this year, and a win last week to raise the spirits, the Melbourne fans should turn up hoping a Black Swan event might strike the Sydney Ducks just as it did in 2010. ... but then Black Swan events are meant to be once in a lifetime THE GAME Melbourne v Sydney at the MCG Sunday 7 July at 1.10pm HEAD TO HEAD Overall Melbourne 92 wins Sydney 107 wins 2 draws At MCG Melbourne 49 wins Sydney 39 wins 2 draws Since 2000 Melbourne 7 wins Sydney 13 wins 1 draw The Coaches Neil Craig 0 John Longmire 0 MEDIA TV Fox Footy Channel (Live at 1:00pm) RADIO Triple M 3AW THE BETTING Melbourne to win $15.00 Sydney to win $1.01 LAST TIME THEY MET Sydney 21.13.138 defeated Melbourne 5.7.37 at the SCG in Round 8, 2012 It was a humiliation of epic proportions. A heavy defeat remembered by Demon fans only for the fact that it was Liam Jurrah's last hurrah and for Jeremy Howe's mark of the year. THE TEAMS MELBOURNE Backs Lynden Dunn Colin Garland Dean Terlich Half backs Tom McDonald James Frawley Mitch Clisby Centreline Matt Jones Jack Trengove Jack Grimes Half forwards Dean Kent Chris Dawes David Rodan Forwards Jack Fitzpatrick Jack Watts Jeremy Howe Followers Max Gawn Colin Sylvia Nathan Jones Interchange Shannon Byrnes Aaron Davey Daniel Nicholson Jimmy Toumpas Emergencies Cam Pedersen James Sellar James Strauss In Jack Grimes Out Sam Blease (ankle) SYDNEY SWANS Backs Nick Smith Ted Richards Dane Rampe Half backs Nick Malceski Heath Grundy Jarrad McVeigh Centreline Dan Hannebery Josh Kennedy Andrejs Everitt Half forwards Ben McGlynn Sam Reid Jude Bolton Forwards Mike Pyke KurtTippett Luke Parker Followers Shane Mumford Kieren Jack, Ryan O'Keefe Interchange Craig Bird Brandon Jack Jed Lamb Tom Mitchell Emergencies Tony Armstrong Mitch Morton Jesse White In Shane Mumford Sam Reid Out Xavier Richards (quad) Jesse White Although the Swans won last year's grand final and their round 9 clash against the Magpies at the G, you have to go back to the middle of the last decade to find a Sydney victory over Melbourne at the home of football (not forgetting that three Demon home games were "sold" to Canberra in the late 00's). The last two games at the ground between these sides produced a couple of diametrically opposite results:- Round 17, 2010 - Melbourne 22.10.142 defeated Sydney 10.9.69 Round 1, 2011 - Melbourne 11.18.84 drew with Sydney 11.18.84 Since the drawn game, the teams have met only once and again the result was quite the opposite of the one it preceded when the Swans recorded that 101 point victory at the SCG. This week's result is likely to be a Swans win in the range between the 2011 and 2012 results.
  3. The last time Melbourne played Sydney was up in the Harbour City and the Dees were flogged royally. These were the teams:- MELBOURNE Backs James Frawley Jared Rivers Clint Bartram Half backs Jack Grimes Colin Garland, Tom McDonald Centreline Cale Morton Brent Moloney Nathan Jones Half forwards Jack Trengove Jack Watts Liam Jurrah Forwards Jeremy Howe Mitch Clark Aaron Davey Followers Mark Jamar Jordie McKenzie Colin Sylvia Interchange Jamie Bennell Sam Blease Brad Green James Magner Emergencies Rohan Bail Lynden Dunn James Sellar In Sam Blease Brad Green Liam Jurrah Jack Watts Out Rohan Bail Matthew Bate Jack Fitzpatrick Ricky Petterd SYDNEY SWANS Backs Martin Mattner Ted Richards Rhyce Shaw Half backs Nicholas Smith Heath Grundy Jarrad McVeigh Centreline Lewis Jetta Josh P Kennedy Nick Malceski Half forwards Ryan O'Keefe Tommy Walsh Daniel Hannebery Forwards Ben McGlynn Sam Reid Trent Dennis-Lane Followers Mike Pyke Kieren Jack Jude Bolton Interchange Craig Bird Alex Johnson Luke Parker Lewis Roberts-Thomson Emergencies Andrejs Everitt Jesse White In Mike Pyke Lewis Roberts-Thomson Tommy Walsh Out Andrejs Everitt Mark Seaby Jesse White New Tommy Walsh (St Kilda)
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