Dees2014

Ted, joining the dots, and based on certain expectations of senior figures in sports administration and legal circles. Beyond that, I am not prepared to elaborate. There is always an element of speculation in this because as I understand the process the Arbitrators will not have yet come to a decision, at least officially, but I do know what the expectations of WADA are in this. As I have said many times on here, CAS is an independent body, and their arbitrators are highly distinguished individuals usually from legal circles, and they will make their own minds up based on the evidence before them. But I also know what the consensus is from equally distinguished and credible circles is who are close to this whole process, and it ain't pretty for either the AFL or the Bombers

Do we seriously suggest that with the Essendon players under oath, the club locked out of proceedings, and therefore the intimidation factor gone (although I do admit the players association is a constant presence and they appear to be in the Pay of Hird and Little), that there will not be at least some of the players who tell it as it was, particularly those at the periphery. They have already courageously started to emerge, positioning themselves for the pay day in front of them. Essendon in the face of the CAS/WADA force will not be able to resist the wall falling down, and I have no doubt at least some of the players will have told the truth about what happened to CAS. You only need one or two, and the whole edifice crumbles.....

They are already spinning the silence by being silent themselves as though it no longer matters (the "move on" factor). The last desperate stand at OK corral

It certainly appears that way BB.

Oh I am pretty sure they are very confident. It is true that in theory they could try to not answer or evade questions, but by turning up they will still have to be present in the witness box and in the face of the highly skilled American counsell l would suggest they would be "putty in his hands", that is of course supposing that they get there in the first place. My read on that is that for ASADA/WADA all throughout this episode a lot of it has been in the timing. They left it until the last minute to hand the case over from ASADA to WADA to make a decision about the appeal, and WADA left it to the last couple of hours to actually lodge the appeal to CAS. Likewise, l seem to remember (although I could be wrong on this), that ASADA did not get their case to the Victorian Supreme Court about subpoenaing Dank, Charters and Alvi until the case actually started at the AFL Tribunal. As I said, for them a key tactic appears to be timing. As far as their confidence in the outcome is concerned, as has been said by a number of others on here, WADA doses not make trivial appeals to CAS. Their record of success in team sports worldwide has been very almost impeccable , although it is true that the three Australian appeals to CAS by WADA have only a 33.33% success rate, but they were individuals in very different circumstances than Essendon. I think we are in good hands and all the public noises coming from WADA over the last week have been extremely confident about a positive outcome for their case.

Can I just add to this. I think the biggest difference by far from the AFL tribunal case is that it appears the Supreme Court will supenor reluctant witnesses on behalf of CAS this time, unlike the AFL Tribunal where they were excused on a technicality. My lawyer friends tell me this technicality is no longer relevant. This means Dank and the crazy chemists will be compulsorily appearing in court to be cross examined by WADA's gun American lawyer. If they don't appear they will be in contempt and probably go to jail. This I think will make all the difference to the outcome. It is a sea change on the farce that was the AFL tribunal hearing.

Yes I think it is symptomatic of how worried the AFL and Essendon are about this, and their collective inflated view of their own importance and power. To gether with their truth machine, News limited, they simply cannot accept that CAS won't be bullied into their point of view however much intimidation, lies and propaganda they spirt forth. No doubt as the proceedings continue over the next two or three weeks they will become more and more desperate. Stand by for an avalanche of Goebbels style half-truths, innuendo and muck-raking.....

I disagree. They are about upholding the WADA code and punishing those who have signed up to the code and then flout it. That is exactly what Hird and his crew did, and therefore are and should be in the sights of WADA, about which CAS will make judgements. if I have not made this abundantly clear, I will now. It is the responsibility of local offshoots (ASADA/USADA) to initially ensure compliance with WADA codes and they do issue infraction notices again people who do not comply. It is the responsibility of the local sport tribunals (eg AFL tribunal) to initially pass judgements and issue penalties if any. If in WADA's view these are not sufficient then they can appeal them to CAS, and WADA then conducts the prosecutions as appropriate. It is CAS's role to make the ultimate judgement, about which there is virtually no access to appeal.When I said the "they have them in the gun" or words to that effect, I was referring to WADA/ASADA. CAS is the umpire

BB. I agree there is technically no backdating. However deducting suspensions from the sentences will be seen by the media and the public as a form ofcbackdating Agree BB. I could have worded it better.

To expand on my above comments, I do not believe the actions of ASADA/WADA/CAS throughout this sordid and scandalous episode has primarily been about the players. The objectives of mcdevitt and ASADA, backed up by WADA, has always been to nail the perpetrators, and in this case it was primarily Hird, and his acolytes in the club who went along with his illegal and cheating plans to gain an unfair advantage over th rest of the AFL competition. But in the first instance, they had to establish that cheating took place and that means illegal drugs were administered to the playing group, therefore infraction notices had to be sent to them in order to establish that. The CAS hearing is all about establishing that fact. From there, if that is established to the satisfaction of the court, then a number of things flow. Initially, I have no doubt a number of infraction notices will be sent to coaches and officials from that era by ASADA, and as a result Hird and Doc Reid will both be rubbed out for life from all sports. Then ASADA will go through most of the other coaches and exercise scientists (including unfortunately Goodwin) and they will get a variety of sentences depending on the level of proof of their involvement and knowledge, but most will be suspended in one form or another. Then they will closely look at the board, and whilst this may may not result in direct penalties by CAS, their intention is to comment unfavourably on their behaviors with the aim of influencing WorkSafe to act against them. As we all know, Worksafe has the power to impose criminal sanctions against Board members who oversee unsafe work practices in their workplaces. This I think helps explain why Worksafe has held off until now to act. Finally the players. As I have stated many times on here, the AFL, ASADA, and the Evans led Essendon, worked out a settlement in 2013 to the satisfaction of all concerned which looked very like the Cronulla deal and involved the players admitting guilt but crucially also called for Hird to fall on his sword and resign. This of course he wouldn't do, and instead he rolled Evans, supposedly his best mate, bought in Little, and the two of them went on this three year orgy of obfuscation, obstructionism, litigation, and often straight out lying. This of course has got them nowhere because fortunately people of integrity, notably McDevitt and certain crusading journalists like Wilson and Smith, decided this was so outrageous they would not let them get away with it. And they haven't but it has been a very close thing. The players are the pawns in all this, but without them at least admitting guilt and getting at least some penalties even if at least some are backdated, the rest of the scenario doesn't fly. It is crucial that guilt is established first and foremost with the players. What do I think will happen to them? I think the players will be found guilty, they will admit guilt and receive mostly two year sentences, with some backdating, although personally I find it illogical that there can be backdating when they have still been playing over the backdated period. The overall effect is that most players will be back on the field for the start of the 2017 season. The longer term damage though will be huge and I have no doubt the legal fallout will go on for years. Hopefully, Hird and Little will fade away in disgrace, never to be heard of again......

LH, have been a bit busy running my business over the last 48 hours. Currently in Hong Kong. Will post a reply to you in the next day or so. Not too far off BB, except I think there will be very serious repercussions for the old Essendon hierarchy from Hird's era coming out of the findings of CAS. The CAS findings will be a signal from which much else will follow including ASADA charging Hird and the rest of the former Don's hierchy and board with all manner is misrants resulting in have fines, and some receiving heavy sentences ( in the sporting sense). The players are in many ways a sideshow, albeit the most visible one. WADA and CAS are after the perpetrators, and that is Hird and his gang, at least that is what my WADA informants are telling me. They don't expect it to be pretty.More later

Yes Masters has been on that tack for some time - it is old news. He obviously has a source probably inside the AFL I would suggest, maybe through his wife Elaine Canty who has deep connections into the AFL, and would be swallowing Elizabeth Lukin's line on this, and she is the best "spin doctor" in the businessMaster's track record in predicting WADA/CAS has not been good. For instance he completely missed the WADA appeal direct to CAS. He had been saying it was all over after the AFL Tribunal which was very much the AFL/EFC line. I suggest this will be the same. WADA will only be very very reluctantly be doing deals on this, and Old Dee's fantasy about wet tram tickets will remain just that - fantasy! The recent Russian revelations about destroying evidence will only harden CAS's resolve on this.. In my view they see the criminality by Essendon and Hird after the doping as far more serious than the doping itself, particularly destruction of evidence.

It will be very interesting to see how the IAAF and WADA responds to the damaging evidence in Russia that vast amounts of doping evidence was destroyed by the athletics establishment to hide doping. Precedence any one? Sebastian Coe, President of the IAAF, has given the Russian Athletics Federation until Friday to state how they are going to clean it up, or they will be banned from the RIO Olympics. Fits nicely into the opening of the Essendon CAS drugs case next week. "Coincidences" seem to be converging nicely! Sent from my iPad

Can I suggest CAS will crash through all this. WS was always going to be a bit of a farce with Andrews breathing down their neck, with half of the cabinet on his side, though I notice the latest from the Victorian Trades Hall is pretty anti Essendon. There is clearly a struggle going on in the Victorian Labor Party on this matter. CAS, even though it is being held in Australia, will be above all this domestic political nonsense and be able to look at the whole issue in a considered dispassionate way, and that folks is what the AFL and Essendon are so worried about. If you do approach it in that way,you can only come down to the conclusion that the Hird regime cynically and deliberately broke many WADA rules in order to gain unfair advantage. They deserve to go down, and they will.

I was going to post a comment to one of your earlier observations, but I think the site was down for a couple of hours, at least on my iPad! Basically, I think it is too early to tell what WS will do. The fact that they a have come out now, a week before CAS is curious to say the least, especially as their timing would indicate that any pronouncements from them will be post the CAS judgement. My previous advice was that they (WS) were waiting for guidance from the CAS verdict and this may still be the case. If it is disastrous for the AFL and Essendon at CAS (which I think it will be) then this will not only give WS cover to do a proper job on Essendon in the face of considerable hostility from the premier and the State Government (including the Governor) but also open up a litany of private legal cases against Essendon, the AFL, and Hird personally which will still be in the system in five years time. Either way, the next month is going to look awfully bloody for Essendon and the AFL IMHO. What do you think will happen?

That was always going to be the case, including Hird and perhaps Goodwin. Worksafe has far more severe sanctions on a personal level for players coaches administrators. With CAS/WADA/ASADA, you can only get suspended from the sport. With Worksafe, there are at least potentially criminal sanctions. We shall see what eventuates, but it is in the very least interesting timing for this announcement on behalf of Worksafe.Also try this... http://www.3aw.com.au/news/worksafe-charges-essendon-20151109-gku1rq.html

Sorry, an embarrassing typo. It should have been the NFL ie American Football. Sorry.

NRL have not signed up to WADA protocols, hence the continuing appalling behaviour of much of their playing Group. The AFL wanted to do this too until the federal government informed them that there would be no more subsidies, particularly on stadium and training facilities, from federal or state governmentS if they did not. They came into line. If this had not happened, I suggest there would be Essendon style practices in almost every club, except no one would hear about them, as there are alleged to be in the NFL.

WJ, it could be argued that yes, but the fact remains that a solution was in the offing which satisfied all parties except for the Hirds and for want of leadership from Essendon and the AFL it wasn't taken up. Ungoverned and unaccountable charismatic leaders, particularly one as sociopathic as James Hird, are dangerous for any organisation (or country). This could and should have been over years ago, but it isn't. And the blame rests at the feet of one man.

What this demonstrates is how appallingly bad the legal and PR advice to Essendon was post the resignation of Evans. Fanned by the sociopathic flames of the Hirds, any rational defence of their (Essendon's) actions of 2012 rapidly went to the window and replaced by self justification and paranoia. This could have all been over in 2013, had Essendon accepted the deal negotiated by Evans, Demetriou, Liz Lukin (the AFL PR guru) and ASADA, but it would have meant Hird would have had to fall on his sword and admit guilt. It is symptomatic of the dramatic lack of leadership in the AFL and Essendon at that time that this did not happen. It will end up costing Essendon, the AFL, and the game of Australian rules football tens of millions of dollars, perhaps more, over the next ten years before this is all over. It is a lesson in allowing seriously flawed people untrammelled power, and what happens when charismatic narcissistic leaders have unchecked power, and people of integrity remain silent in sport, politics and life. Where have we heard that before?

You wonder why Fairfax employs such sloppy and lazy journalists who are still swallowing this Essendon propaganda. WADA Appeal: Players unlikely to face suspension says Essendon It reads like the PR release that it is and shows absolutely zero understanding of how CAS works. For starters, they never flag a decision before the hearing is held even though the AFL and Essendon would wish it to be so. What they think this sort of exercise is supposed to achieve is quite beyond me!

I think it is more a case of all those associated with Hird and Essendon over 2011 to 2014 are delusional (including Goodwin). Apparently the MFC had "very frank" discussions with Goodwin about the drug issues before they hired him in 2014. Just how realistically frank they possibly could have been when all of Essendon were not on planet earth on these issues at that time, and no-one really knew how it was going to play out, which is so even today. Personally, I believe associating the MFC with Essendon from that period in any way whatsoever, is a dereliction of duty on behalf of our club. And now, in late 2015, our star recruit, strongly pushed by Goodwin apparently, was right in the thick of Essendon circa 2012.It may not matter. Things are moving on the legal front where action in the civil courts may overwhelm whatever CAS and WADA do anyway, as can be seen from this article in today's Age: "Holding grave concerns about their client, the legal team representing a 2012 Essendon player will ask the Supreme Court to order the AFL and the club to hand over documents about the clubs 2012 supplements program. Hal Hunter, an Essendon rookie list player from 2012 to 13, will be asking Justice Nemeer Mukhtar to order that the AFL and Essendon hand over relevant documents on Thursday before deciding how to advance their legal case, according to one of Hunters lawyers. Patrick Keyzer, a professor of law at La Trobe University and Hunters lawyer, said: The AFL and Essendon have declined repeated requests to give us documents that are relevant to the health and safety of our client [Hunter]. Keyzer said Hunter, now 23, had the misfortune to be a rookie at Essendon during the notorious supplements scandal. We want those documents because we are gravely concerned about the health and wellbeing of our client. Keyzer added that that the AFL and the club have a clear duty of disclosure so that our client can work out whether he has a course of action and if so, how to frame it. It is understood that, depending on what happens in court and in any discussions between the parties , Hunter is considering suing the club and the AFL for breach of contract, negligence and even assault . One of the Hunter camp arguments is that the AFL and Essendon have an obligation to provide a safe workplace for players . Hunter's legal team says the action is against Essendon and the AFL on the grounds that the players contract is tripartite involving not only the player and the club but the league. Keyzer said while Essendon had provided some documents, there are some categories of documents that have not been disclosed . Hunter wanted the court to order the league and the club to produce documents or disclose documents that we believe they ought to have . A lack of records from the 2012 injection program was criticised by the AFL tribunal when it cleared the 34 current and former Essendon players at the March hearing on doping charges a case that is being heard on appeal in the Court of Arbitration for Sport. Hunter was not issued with a show-cause notice and his case is not connected to the WADA hearing. Hunter will be represented in court by Keyzer, a barrister who is also head of the La Trobe Law School and Arthur Moses, SC. The AFL and Essendon are expected to have their own lawyers." Copyright © 2015 The Age As we have predicted many times on here before, it is only a matter of time before the full consequences of the Hird regime are played out in the Courts of the land, irrespective of what the AFL, CAS, WADA, ESSENDON, Little or Hird might try to do about it. This is just the beginning. Stand by for an orgy of litigation on these subjects over the next couple of years. And as always, may the Law take its course!

Hate to be the bearer of bad news but the decision off the club on Goodwin and Melksham would have to be the worst in the last 20 years, which is really saying something. Both will be rubbed out in my view, and we are unlikely to see Melksham next season, closely followed by Goodwin. From all that we hear, Goodwin is a very worthy character, and a very astute coach, but the train is rocketing along the track now which will collide with all who were foolish enough to be associated with James Hird. WADA has made that very very clear in the last few days in Melbourne. How we could have been so stupid to get ourselves involved in this is beyond me.

the "Spring Street Bombers" have been in existence for some years as an informal organisation, but it is true it was formalised last year partly in response getting the EFC more political clout. I'm told Essendon have been one of the more active AFL clubs in Spring street for some years, and can partly explain their powerful supporter base, I would suggest second only to Collingwood. You might like to refute any other points I make, but most of the predictions I have made through this saga have been proven to be correct, but you don't get everything right of course, mostly because you rely on others to give you information. What has your strike rate been like? Or do you just sit on the fence and criticise?

I understand this is correct, but it is a very recent phenomenon and has taken a hell of a long time to see the reality staring them in their face. Don't forget they agreed and I understand partly funded hird's "holiday" in Europe, plus his subsequent contract extension.