nutbean

key to me - is stability stability with admin stability with coaching My two concerns is Not enough good senior players to protect, mentor and teach the kids Not enough good senior players meaning juniors have to play out of their skin consistently to get a game. Have a look at the Hawks for instance - how many first year players are getting a gig with them ?

I disagree vehemently ! This idea that you must be able to determine the best - you can only determine the best at the time - as to how they will turn out - its crystal ball and tattslotto stuff. As i said before go backthrough drafts - Wines went down the order and IMO is the best from that draft. Bontempelli is looking the best from this draft to date ( we are judging way too early). The order in which players are selected compared to their careers is proof enough of how inexact the science. If you had to rearrange every draft going back on what we know now not one would be in the correct order. What does that tell you ? I have said elsewhere though - it is extra difficult for us - we have had poor structures, poor coaching, poor senior players ( mentors). Imagine JKH sitting in the forward pocket at the Hawks - Clarkson coaching, Roughead, Gunston, Rioli around you - make life a bit easier ? I have maintained that we have developed our youth very poorly and I am hoping the new structure will get it right. I do fear though that we dont give our players enough time to develop in the magoos as we have no one in the seniors that will keep them out.

Not a complete lottery but all recruiters have to go on is what they see over two years of TAC and all you need to do is look at 1-10 from the last 7 years to know that the order of selection as compared to how they have turned out to date has never been right. And everybody is such an expert a couple years after the event. I am amused by all the posturing regarding the up coming draft - and again - there will be some that get it right and some that get it wrong. The only guarantee is the way the draft picks get taken is not the way their careers will pan out - so it gives everyone from most clubs to say - geez - if we have only taken XXXX

And statements like this show absolutely zero understanding in relation to drafting - you can only pick the best at the time. Again Cook, Strauss and Gysberts were NOT the best available at that time and the recruiters should definitely be held to account for those picks. Watts vs Niknat is a comparison that will be made until the end of days as they were clearly the pick of the bunch - if anything Niknat was slightly favoured however we went the home grown boy. But for anyone to suggest that Scully and Trengove should not have been taken at the time, as you so eloquently put it, are in complete denial of reality.

I don't boo at the ground - I sulk.... However I am all in favour of a "boo" button being added on demonland next to the like button. Come on Nasher - make it happen !

Im with you. I dont think we have so much more talent than last year - the difference when we have played well this year is not the skill level or hitting up targets - its been the intent. The intent was missing on Sunday

I don't buy into this - players we move on - for every Martin, Petterd and Rivers there is a Cheney, Moloney, Sylvia, Gysberts and Bruce. Roos will clear out what we consider flotsam and jetsam end of year and one or two will make a go of it at another club - so be it. GWS would be moaning about Tyson, Adelaide about Vince and the Bullies less than happy about Cross. Happens to all clubs.

I know I know - we have picked some poorly but haven't you asked yourself why we havent had one draft pick that got to elite status ? Do you honestly therefore believe we get every single pick wrong. And yet most here pull apart every part of the club from previous coaching to admin to training to culture - rightly so. And yet there is an expectation that our recruits are meant to thrive in that environment - beggars belief

Nonsense - apart from Cook, Strauss Gysberts - we picked the best players available at our pick. Some skinny ? Yes - explain McLean, explain Sylvia, explain Tapscott, Trengove wasn't skinny when he came. Most that come out of TAC are undeveloped - Wines is the exception not the norm. Most of these big bodies you speak of that made it didn't walk into the clubs with big developed bodies - they developed them at the clubs they went to. Ahh development - something we have never managed to do. Its not that our kids were skinny - it is that we have never managed to get weight on them. Unskilled - where are you dragging this from ? Maric was meant to be a gun by foot ... Strauss was meant to be a gun by foot ... hmmmm. The only player with a knock on his foot skills was Scully We went with Scully small and quick - Trengove more solid, Gysberts - taller option - meant to be a ball magnet, Tapscott - ball of muscle run through brick walls. To say we picked for a certain game plan ? four very different footballers who only had one thing in common - none of them have made it. Name all the picks we have had - then line them all and see if there is a similarity between them all. The only real similarity is not in attributes but in the fact that none of them have really made it. So pick a common thread as to why this might have happened - It might be they all landed at our cesspool ?

So we are probably in agreement - all recruiters are reacting to is what they see - then they guess on potential and whether they will develop. The one all recruiters got horribly wrong in my opinion is Scully - there was always a knock on his kicking but his biggest asset was his almost manic desire to succeed and go to any lengths to get to be the best. That hasnt quite worked for him yet. Geelong have got a few wrong as well. But I cannot over-emphasis taking a bit of talent and putting into a well run organisation that nurtures and develops the talent, has great leadership and surrounds the juniors with really good senior players. The most accurate statement is "time will tell". Yup - because we will have hindsight and recruiters are really guessing on one major component - these kids play well at TAC - will they continue that form and development at AFL level. We have recruited tall, short, well built, skinny, inside and outside, well fancied and smokies - pretty much all have been washouts. with few exceptions - its all about us not them.

Sherlock Holmes (Arthur Conan Doyle) once said - "Eliminate all other factors, and the one which remains must be the truth. Chap. ...the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth" I know - quoting fictional characters but... We have had a series of recruiters not just one. These guys are also backed by a web of talent scouts. Ask yourself this - were the players selected picked unseen or were they watched ? Were they regarded as talented footballers from what was seen ? How do players like Wright, McCartin and Petracca get to be ranked as the best 3 players in the competition ? Were these players not only regarded as top selections by us but by other recruiters. So have thought about this - there are probably only 2 players who i can think off that fall outside the above - Cook, Gysberts and Strauss. So if we have taken talented footballers into our club and to a man - they have all failed - is not the obvious staring us in the face ? 1/ Junior footballers do not always go onto to make it 2/ There is so much wrong with our club that we make it doubly difficult for junior players to succeed

20% recruiting 80% development ( including crap culture, no demand of excellence, fitness regime that is years behind other clubs, no leadership, poor administration, no good role models/senior players to take pressure off and aid the juniors development)

Again .... Follow the pack - our recruiters see what everyone else is seeing - who is the most talented junior footballers. So we took Scully Trengove Watts and Toumpas who were highly rated. - poor recruiting ? shouldnt follow the crowd, hype and delusion ? We took Cook, Strauss and Tapscott - well before the crowd and them placed - poor recruiting ? You cant have it both ways - when we go with popular wisdom you think we get it wrong but when we went against popular wisdom we really got it wrong. And you say we blindly follow the media - where do you think the media is getting their information - from recruiters. From what recruiters are seeing and telling them. Our recruiters and other recruiters. Recruit players we need - we needed big body mids a while ago - we picked up Sylvia and McLean, we need a key forward - we took Cook, we took watts, we again needed mids - scully, trengove, toumpas. You can be bemused as you like - but a little thought into what a raffle TAC draftees can be and also how horrible this club has been at developing any players should probably enter your thinking. For the record - what are your thoughts on the Petracca hype ?

Of course they get caught up - that is why it is a turkey shoot. But people wringing their hands over Martin - the "hype" over Scully started 2 years before the draft and didn't diminish - he played exception junior football. Trengove was a later bloomer but played a great last year and did will at senior level in the SANFL level. So do you believe like others, that at the time, we should have taken Martin over either of those two ?

I know we have to try and decipher the workings of players minds which is fraught with danger but I would be talking with the players coming into free agency next year now and at least try and see if you can gauge their thinking. I would be semi ruthless and if I player has said " I haven't thought about next years contract" then I would suggest we tell the player to think about it right now. If a player says" I love playing here and want to start negotiations now" then you mark them off as a keep. If a player says "I want to wait - I just want to concentrate on my football" or " I want to see the direction of the club"- I'd be fielding offers NOW. Roos suggested as much - that players could be traded out the year before free agency.

"We dont know this" - that's why I started the post with In my opinion. And yes we don't know this but all you can do is listen to how he has spoken and he seems genuine to me. My opinion is that if he chooses another team over ours - it will either be over in WA because it may be closer to his support structure - or if it is here - it will be a team that will be successful and in the finals frame as this may be better for his mental health. IMO - it will not be a money issue. I also suspect that any club that takes him on will be for minimal money but with large $ incentives (games,goals, B&F votes etc)

I wanna know why we keep throwing this up. Sylvia, McLean, Tapscott - how did they work out for us ? In most cases we have drafted what are regarded as the best players available at our pick ( Cook and Strauss being exceptions and two that were taken well before their "ranking"). I refuse to believe that we have got that many wrong. I firmly believe that we have taken recruits who have had some talent into a club with a lingering poor culture, no leadership, questionable administation, iffy coaches and no pursuit of excellence. I can buy the best plants from the best nursery - if i stick them into my poor soil at home and don't water them or give them nutrients - they whither and die - nothing more certain. To those who say "these recruits have gone elsewhere and havent done any good either" - Sometimes when you crap in your pants, you think you can salvage them by giving them to another really good laundry to clean up and use - but alas - some stains will never come out ( Wow I'm on fire with my analogies today !)

Not tag them ? They have been tagging them ???? Roos discussed in an interview this year the enormous gulf between TAC and AFL. He made a point of the biggest deficiency of juniors coming through being the absence of the defensive side of their games.

IMO opinion it will have nothing to do with money. Mitch at his retirement said himself that he was feeling guilty about being highly paid and not providing a return. He would hardly sell out to the highest bidder after his previous statements.

I agree 100% and maybe it is because of my demeanor after Sunday but if I was his medical practitioner, for his own well being I would probably advise him to stay away from us !

it points to our players not working hard enough to run and spread and find space. If you watch, bounces usually come from teams "switching" deep in the back half and thus freeing up a man going out. I have been critical of our switches - because switching relies on players running hard to get free. We switch but don't work hard enough to free up the next man or are too slow or gunshy to pull the trigger and get the ball to the next player free.

Take off your Melbourne hat for a second. After serious depression issues you have a chance to restart your career and jump on board the SS Minnow ( where you once did a 3 hour tour) or the QE2. Which one would you take.

correct - and even the most ardent supporters of this club will reluctantly acknowledge that our club has been a stinkfest for many years. And yet we put juniors into this club and expect them to shine. We have made some mistakes in recruiting and then we had an organisation which in no way demanded excellence nor had the structures, staff or training regime to help juniors develop and prosper. Most people are very despondent about our last few weeks performances as I am too. But I keep reminding myself of the big picture. I have the utmost faith that Roos and his coaching staff and PJ can set an organisation and culture where players will thrive and success will follow. The reason I have the utmost faith is because we now have some of the best professionals in the business at our club. If they cannot turn this around then I am with WYL, the club has zero future. This is pretty much the last roll of the dice.

Seriously.... Pray tell - where exactly do you think the hype comes from ? People just making it up ? The hype, is in reality is the expectation that comes from watchers of TAC/Junior footballer seeing these players and assessing or grading them. The idea that Scully at the time was far and away rated as the best junior in the land wasn't just pulled out of someones sphincter. These players were playing great football against their own age not open competition against men ( although some had played seniors at SANF/WAFL level - still a far cry from AFL) The reality is that some great juniors do not go on to be great seniors. Throw into the mix that we have no idea how to develop players. It is easy to sit back and be a genius after these players have played a season or two. But I won't sit here calmly and listen to revisionists bang on about us taking Scully/Trengove instead of Martin. Is it a mistake now ? Absolutely. At the time - absolutely not. So "at the time" is 100% on the money. "At the time" these players were highly rated juniors. So yes, hindsight is a wonderful thing

yeah I know - and I don't blame those who do. I know he will only come back if he is well enough but seriously - do you think playing for our mob the last three years would be good for your mental health ?