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binman

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Posts posted by binman

  1. 1 hour ago, dees4lyf said:

    I think we have to be really smart and clinical with the petty contract. With Tassie coming in and potentially West coast getting assistance, drafpt picks are a premium.. if the offer is too good, then it may set us up for a good tilt at top end talent.

    Big decisions to think about. Of Course if Harry really wants to stay and his form is good enough then we keep him.

    Good call.

  2. 2 hours ago, Chook said:

    Tried to listen to this poddy last night to lull me to sleep (not a comment on the quality of the podcast - it's just a habit I've gotten myself into). I think I lasted about 15 minutes so I'll give it another crack tonight.

    My wife has the same reaction when I talk to her about footy.

    Well, a few things actually now that I come to think about it.

    • Haha 2
  3. 2 hours ago, mt2 said:

    Thoughts on our kick-ins so far this season?

    I really liked seeing Judd McVee take most of our kick-ins against Hawks. Most of our best ball users are at half-back - McVee, Bowey, Salem (when he's moved back), Rivers, and Howes if he keeps to the level he's been at so far.

    I hope we continue seeing McVee and co on kick-ins, less of May who can pretty much only go long and down the line.

    Screenshot 2024-03-26 at 7.52.37 pm.png

    Ta. I was looking for that. 

    Judd went from aprox 6% of the kick outs in the first game, 60% second and 100% third game.

    He's super reliable and a better short kick than may.

    And better on the run and at changing the target late.

    He's playing a role similar to Nick daicos in his 2022, but more defensively accountable one on one.

    Kid's a jet.

    • Like 14
    • Thinking 1
  4. 31 minutes ago, Demonland said:

    SEN has a segment each week with Daniel Hoyne from Champion Data (not sure what day or time).  The segments are eventually posted to YouTube/Spotify/SEN Website. On YouTube the segments are time coded in the episode description so you can jump straight to any Dees segment.

    Here are the shows from Opening Round and Round 1. Round 2 has not been posted yet.

     

     

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 2
  5. 2 hours ago, Chook said:

    They have a very high press, leaving heaps of space out the back if a midfield is capable of exploiting it on the turnover. Langdon, ANB, Chandler, Windsor, Petracca, Pickett should be able to give them a lot of trouble.

    Spot on.

    And we are much better placed this season to exploit that high press with all the work we have done to improve our fast transition from the back half.

    I'm quietly confident of handy win for this reason.

    I'm amazed they haven't looked to set up differently defensively this season.

    I just assumed they would, as they are not going to win a flag if they don't sort their defence.

    Hinkley must be pretty confident his method can deliver the goods.

    • Like 1
  6. 2 minutes ago, DistrACTION Jackson said:

    100% agree. Which is why I'm not as concerned about the Gawn/May retirements.

    The real end of the 'era' will be Trac/Viney/Salem/Oliver/Fritsch/Lever/Langdon

    Mmm, Gawn and may will be hard to cover, as i'm not convinced we have cover for tmem in term sof young players. 

    But we both may and maxy are on big coin, so we will have some capital to to say target Darcy at Freo down the track (i cant see the Jackson Darcy combo working out long term).

    And perhaps go after a Taylor or another other quality key defender.

  7. 2 hours ago, DistrACTION Jackson said:

    That is a fair assessment, but let's not forget they are 22, 20, 21 & 20.......

    Exactly.

    And IMHO, McVee, Rivers, Howes and Bowey area all future A graders. 

    For me this is another key thing thing the media is completely missing about the dees - how  much scope for improvement we have because we have so many quality young players in our starting 23 that will develop into serious AFL footballers. 

    On Saturday we had four players under the age of 21 - JVR, Windsor,  McVee and Howes. And Koz and Rivers are both still only 22.  Bowey will come back in when fit and he is only 21.

    All seven players are in our best 23, meaning almost a third of our best team are 22 or under. That's crazy given we won a flag in 2021 and were top 4 in 2022 and 2023.

    And Sparrow is only 23 and Chandler turned 24 in January (meaning nine of our best 23 are under 24 or under).

    So much upside.  Upside that not other serious top 4 contender, with the possible exception of the Giants, can match. 

    Compare and contrast to the Pies for instance. 

    • Like 2
    • Love 2
  8. 39 minutes ago, leave it to deever said:

    During our darker years a mate of mine...a Dee's fanatic would often bet against us to take the sting out of our losses. He called it insurance money. Sadly he did quite well.

    Yes, well that's been the other part of punting on dees problem - not being able to bring myself to back against the dees, even when i know the oppo is good value.

    • Like 1
  9. 20 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

    Now that the sun has risen and the injury position a little clearer it seems to me only one change...

    Tomlinson in for May

    Play Petty forward

    BBB holds his place but I can't see his body holding up for the Adelaide game. A pity McAdam is not available. Fullarton is the possibility. Of course you could reverse it and play BBB in the Adelaide game if it makes more sense tactically.

    Assuming lever is right that's how I see it too. 

    With hore as sub 3again.

    If BBB needs a spell, petty could move forward and hore takes his role.

    Hore is also athletic enough to play a half back flanker role giving them some flexibility if a mid has to come off.

    For instance, rivers moves into the middle and hore takes his role.

    • Like 2
  10. I punt with a mate. Horses and footy (but haven't had a bet on the footy thus far, too variable, though i regret not making some money from the pies losses).

    We have a very good record for footy bets, with one exception.

    My record on suggested bets on the dees is woeful (though we had such a good run on us in 2021, including the flag, norm smith and multiple wins in the 24-30 point range that we're still probably somewhere near break even on our dees bets).

    So, we've made the difficult decision to not back the dees anymore (difficult for me, not him - let's say my mate is little less naturally optimistic, read more realistic, about our chances. To be fair to him, we have been mates for 34 years and I'm probably 8-26 in terms of my preseason optimism being warranted).

    I note all that by way of putting a warning on the following advice:

    You can currently get 2.76 for a dees win against Port (who are 1.46 favorites), with the line at +14.5

    They are simply crazy odds. Particularly if Lever ends up playing.

    Defensively, they will struggle to cover our ball movement from the back half on what will be a perfect night for footy (dry, warm, but cloudy so little dew but no humidity).

    And our defence is perfectly suited to nullify their two key forwards, both in terms of our zone off, help out system and our personnel.

    The big slow lug, Dixon is perfectly suited as match up for Tomo. Dixon won't exploit Tomos lack of pace of the mark and Tomo is strong enough to compete. Hore and Lever can cover Marshall. 

    Offensively, they will certainly trouble us with what i assume will be their normal super fast ball movement from the back half. And they will certainly get some good looks, particularly with the brilliant Rozee and Butters, and the reliable Houston, driving their transition. 

    But our defensive system is the best in the AFL and we are the team best placed to stand up defensively against fast ball movement (as we have shown against the Pies last year, and even against the Swans in round one).

    They deserve to be favorites on their home deck, but 1.46 is way unders. As is the 14 point line. I mean what is our average losing margin in the last three  seasons?

    Suggested bet: your super on the dees to make their +14.5 line, and whatever you handy have in your bank account on the dees to win @ 2.76

    • Like 3
  11. 25 minutes ago, Skuit said:

    If Demonland ever went down in a plane crash on a remote deserted island, you'd probably be one of the last ones to be eaten. 

    Maybe 20 years ago.

    But in our post truth, post knowledge, post covid world, Webber would be one of the first eaten.

    Sure he studied for years and has continued to develop his expertise through his career, but does he do his own research?

    • Like 1
    • Haha 13
  12. 12 hours ago, spirit of norm smith said:

    6 votes Luke Jackson 

    5 votes James Jordon

    4 votes Oskar Baker 

    3 votes Brodie Grundy 

    2 votes Jeremy Howe 

    1 vote Toby Bedford 

    6 votes Steve May

    5 votes Jake Lever

    4 votes Ed Langdon

    3 votes Ben Brown

    2 votes Lachie Hunter

    1 vote Jack Billings 

    • Love 1
  13. 36 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

    Chapman and Cox are defenders, Cox was in the AA squad in 2022.

    They are both better than Pearce, as is Luke Ryan. At full strength they are a strong defence and one which I think most people don’t appreciate. 

    Yep, forgot cox was a defender. And as you say a really good one too.

    I'm obviously in the not appreciating how strong their defence is. I'll reassess.

    • Like 2
  14. 1 hour ago, titan_uranus said:

    Not sure about Fremantle's depth.

    Yesterday was only North but they were missing Chapman, Cox, Darcy, O'Driscoll and O'Meara, plus OMac and Worner who played last week, plus a few others (e.g. Corey Wagner and Ethan Stanley).

    Perhaps against a better side they wouldn't have won but they're 2-0 with quite a lot of talent to come back.

    And I wholly disagree that they "need" key defenders. Their best 22 defence is top 4 quality. 

    We'll have to agree to disagree, but the back six that played the Roos is, IMHO, not a top 4 defensive unit (i think I'm right in saying that Omac is the only best 22 defender missing, unless you include Corey Wagner). 

    • James Aish 
    • Alex Pearce
    • Jordan Clark
    • Ethan Hughes
    • Joshua Draper
    • Luke Ryan

    Alex Pearce is a  pretty good player, but not AA quality. And he's their best defender. 

  15. 26 minutes ago, Pennant St Dee said:

    And yet we had a Dees supporter call SEN during the week with some conspiracy theory regarding Nibbler always being one of the first players to congratulate a teammate after the teammate had kicked a goal. The caller believed it to be orchestrated by Nibbler to just get in the highlight reels.  
    Absolutely ridiculous call, the caller even scoffed at Garry’s response in asking him do you not just watch the way he plays his footy and think that’s just the way he is a real team player 

    Really?

    That was seriously his theory?

    Man oh man, some people. Imagine  one thinking that, and two going to the effort to call a radio station and broadcast your stupidity. 

    • Like 4
    • Haha 2
  16. 10 hours ago, Demon17 said:

    Hore stays for sure but he's 15kg minimum lighter the Steven.  Not sure how we replace how May playes.  A real test for the coaches to be creative.

    Contrary to some on here I thought Petty's last 1/4 looked like he had never left defence. very good, espe in the air.

    TMac great also.

    Agree with all of the above 

    But what i meant waa goody went with hore as the sub. And he was therefore available to replace may down back.

    Tomo will come in for may, no problems. Excellent cover for may for couple of weeks. 

    • Like 2
  17. 3 minutes ago, Brownie said:

    Just finished watching.

    Ruthless footy. So good to see such variation going forward now. Just love it.

    Petracca was just huge. That spoil and gut running to make it when the game was iced. True leadership and hunger. And he's havning fun!

    Windsor is going to be a star for us.

    Pickett is really finding his groove. invaluable

    Clarry, How good was that kick off the side of his boot to a team meate on the wing while being crunched by two players in the third?

    Sad to see May get crunched. Opprotnunity is there for Tommo to seize the day now. Surely they must bring him in.

    Fritta, he got the goals but I still think he's a bit lazy with his defensive efforts.

    JVR only got the one goal but I think he is going to be a massive forward for us. You can see his presence and cinfidence growing week to week now that our forward line is opening up. He's not a bad second ruck either.
    He just keeps competing. He is taking a while but I still think he will be a Schwarta for us.

    Commentators - The Wizard? Really? because he has a mullet or something? He kicked six behinds before getting a goal and still they pumped him up. Jeff Farmer, you must want to punch them. I do.
    Can we get more race callers. Seriously. Huddo and Dwayne.

    Free kicks, we lost the free kick count after slapping them most of the day. 9 goal win. Lost the free kick count 20 to 17.
    Not that they'd try and even it up or anything.

    Bring on Adelaide. Yeah baby

    Agree with all. 

    With the possible exception of the assessment of fritter's defensive work.

    I thought he was average defensively last week, but he got the melksham role on Sicily, a gough job, and limited his intercept marking

    He also got up the ground to help out defensively and laid a couple of big tackles.

    I'm about to watch the replay, having watched it live, so I'll keep an eye on fritter. 

    • Like 3
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    • Clap 3
  18. 7 hours ago, Diamond_Jim said:

    Definitely not. They have some young A listers and a good coach.

    I can't get a handle on Freo. In 2022 it looked like they were on the way to battling for a top 4 spot in 2023 but it's been all downhill

    Freo's list does not have near enough quality or depth.

    They used a lot capital on Jackson.

    Jackson will be a good investment long-term, he's a gun - and should really be pushing for AA this year given his age and development.

    But they had a gun ruck and in the now, needed some class mids and quality key defenders more than a ruck forward who isn't a natural forward, or a one grabber for that matter.

    • Like 1
  19. 2 minutes ago, layzie said:

    Yep, we really aren't doing a lot of defensive running in that situation and we're staying fresh. 

    Games and seasons are marathons not sprints, its all about timing your run in. I'm not about perfect 100 point drubbings or 5 star performances at this part of the season. 

    Yep.

    And in what world is a 9 goal win not a smashing?

     

    • Like 11
  20. 30 minutes ago, Binmans PA said:

    We had a solid lead and they were kicking it back and forth to each other on our half forward line. We were literally just waiting for them to make an error and then slingshot on them. We didn't need to do anything else but defend. It was a very José Mourinho-like performance. 

    Goody said they are 'always happy' to let teams switch and hold onto the ball. Has been a hallmark o his coaching.

    Paraphrasing, its all about stopping them score.

    And responding to what the oppo dish up tactically. Another hallmark of goody's coaching.

    I said to mate leaving the ground that  once we got a decent lead they were happy for them to play kick to kick 80 metres from their goals.

    They are not eating into the margin.

    And we just wash from side to side which in addition to being bruise free, that sort of half pace running, with occasional sprint is way less taxing that running hard up and down the ground.

    And if it's about percentage, keeping an oppo to under 40 points and winning by 55 is the way to build it.

     

    • Like 13
  21. Go redlegs.

    Professional win with some terrific individual efforts and highlights.

    Goody looks a genius with his selections. 

    Hore replaces may.

    And Petty goes back to cover Lever.

    Despite losing our two best key defenders for a half, on a perfect day for footy the oppo can't break 50 points.

    • Like 20
  22. 17 minutes ago, Jaded No More said:

    You’re using too many big words. Pies fans are still reading at grade 1 level. This post will go straight over their head 

    Response Peter is Moore:

    And don't you hate all the socio economic stereotypes you hear from other club's fans. Particularly from demon fans, who really should be renamed the boomers given the demographics of their pitifully small supporter base. 

    I mean, I've never lived in the City of Yarra, but i went hard on property in the late 80s around dights falls and made a fortune. 

    And our greatest ever Prez is my neighbor here in beach road Brighton, so hardly blue collar. 

    • Haha 2
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