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Posts posted by binman

  1. 57 minutes ago, Roger Mellie said:

    Great work thanks W'dee!

    Any of the players in noticeably different positions in match sim - or too hard to tell.

    I'm confident T-Mac won't play down back again unless filling in.

    The thought of Tmac trying to bite of yet another high risk kick from defence and giving straight back to the oppo gives me cold sweats.

    For anyone thinking he would be a good option down back please remember the reason he went forward in the first place - it was last chance saloon for him because he was such a turnover merchant down back.

    Tmac was gonski if he couldn't make it as a forward. 

    Also Tmac has never been quick or super agile.

    Lack of pace and agility for a key defender is a killer and he ain't got any quicker or agile since 2018. 

    That said a good swing man option.

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  2. 4 hours ago, Kyneton said:

    am new to tbe podcast and appreciated the insights provided on the finals games - really insightful.  will be listening to every podcast from now on.

    who are the hosts BTW - impressive.


    You picked a good time to start listening.

    The preview of the blues game was the first time Andy (@Demonland) was confident going into a big game.

    There was even hope his MFCSS was at the very least in remission.

    Alas, it's all over now baby blue. 

    I fear any confidence I might have about our chances in any future game will wash up on the rocks of Andy's well earned pessimism. 

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  3. 52 minutes ago, Whispering_Jack said:

    More rubbish reporting from the Herald Sun.


    Josh Barnes - Track watch

    Opening Two Paragraphs:

    “A bunch of senior Melbourne leaders joined their younger teammates for day one of pre-season on Monday but Clayton Oliver was not one of them.

    “As an experienced player, Oliver is not required back until next week, with the first week of training officially only for first to four year Demons.”

    If Clarrie is not required back until next week and is still on leave, exactly what “memo” has he missed? 


    And on Clarry, sure the club has said he has some off field issues to sort out, and there might have been some issues in terms of how he rehabbed his hammy, but on field and on the track he has never been accused of being anything less than 100% committed and full throttle (his numbers were nuts after missing nearly 4 months of footy). 

    So why does he need to come back a week early? To prove what to whom? Ooh Clarry has been a bad boy, he should send a message he is a good boy by coming back a week early. 

    There's every chance he has been advised by people providing support that to get his head in a good place and get on top of his demons (metaphorically speaking - literally, he could just go to training) he is better away from the club as long a possible in terms of maximizing his break. 

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  4. On 22/11/2023 at 20:11, Demon Disciple said:

    This is a fallacy that keeps getting trotted out by many supporters. We have not finished in the top 4 this year or last. 2021, 22, 23 = 1st, 5th & 6th respectively.

    Do we have to give our double chance back?

    But seriously, the final ladder order is the positions at the end of the home and away season, hence this:


    And this:


    So we absolutely finished top 4 in 2022 and 2023.  

    You might be confusing the ladder with the draft order.

    Weirdly, i did quick google but couldn't find much detail on this, but i think I'm right in saying the draft order for the teams that made finals is set post finals.

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  5. Fantastic to see Tmac up and and about.

    It's worth remembering that this time last year Tmac was still rehabbing his foot injury.

    In hindsight they made an error, albeit a very understandable one given a premiership was on the table, trying to rush him back at the end of the  2022 home and away season. 

    But that decision stuffed Tmac's 2023 preseason as he struggled with complications for months. 

    It's accepted fact that players who have interrupted preseasons struggle to get back to their best that season.

    I suspect that was particularly true for Tmac, one because he had a foot injury which would have negatively impacted his aerobic conditioning. And two Tmac has said he needs to a mountain of work to get into peak shape. 

    Tmac ended up having surgery last season (2023). I cant recall the specifics, but given it was foot surgery i assume it was likely related to his 2022 injury. He never got back his full mobility and speed over the ground when he came back in but at least it appears his foot was ok. 

    A full preseason and no further injuries and Tmac still has a big role to play. 

    Similarly, great to see Salo on deck. From memory he had a great pre xmas period last year (and maybe Jan too?) training wise but it all went pear shaped in Feb with his thyroid issue. Another season impacted by an interrupted preseason.

    A full preseason and no further injuries and salo will be a critical piece of the puzzle next season. We desperately need him to get back to his 2021 form in terms of his ability to make high risk kicks.

    If he can get back to that level it will massively help our transition game, but perhaps more importantly our ability to retain the ball in our back half and on transition. Turnovers in our opponent's half of the ground back cost us dearly in our home and away and finals losses to the blues and our QF loss to the Pies.

    An in form Salo also takes some pressure of McVee and Bowey. Ideally both can be get more offensive and take on some high risks kicks too but that's harder if Salo is not at his best. 

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  6. 21 hours ago, rpfc said:

    This. It’s pervasive and I think we are done with it.

    I would suggest the alternatives are the Spargo and ANB types that can be effective in a specific role but are not forwards, have little forward craft or nous, and are just not dangerous in advanced positions. 

    Whilst i would agree Nibbla is not a natural goal kicking forward it's bit of a stretch to say he has 'little forward craft or nous' and is 'just not dangerous in advanced positions'.

    After all, Nibbla:

    • kicked 19.11 for the season 
    • had 14 goal assists - the fifth most behind Tracc, Kozzie, Chandler and Viney (of the permanent forwards only Koz and chandler had more more with 23 and 15)
    • had 112 score involvements - the fourth most behind Tracc, Kozzie and Viney (of the permanent forwards only Koz had more more with 135)

    It's worth noting that as a high half forward he gets less opportunities to score goals than players like Chandler and Koz who operate closer to goal, so they are pretty good offensive numbers.    

    #nibbla myths 

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  7. 2 hours ago, bluey said:

    In July we held picks, 5, 13, 25, 33.

    We had Brodes, Harmsey, Jordan, our premiership players.

    Be nice to start again.

    This reads like some weird MFC themed haiku.

    And like many haikus it is nigh on impossible to work out what the hell it is supposed to mean.

    Take this famous haiku by Kobayashi Issa about Stuart Dew for example:

    This world of dew

    is a world of dew,

    and yet, and yet.

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  8. 1 hour ago, drdrake said:

     I would like another forward who can play mid, rather than mids playing half forward like we do.

    100% Agree.

    Bailey from the Lions is the perfect example of the sort of player and role that the Colt could fill for us.

    High half forward who can get up and down the ground, hits targets, wins his own ball, can kick goals and when required can also go into the middle. 

    The alternative is players like Sparrow and Jordon who can play as pure mids when required (eg to give our starting mids a chop out) but don't look natural forwards when resting at half forward flank. 

    • Like 7
  9. 2 hours ago, Mach5 said:

    Point being?

    His pressure acts, 1%ers, effort, gut running, etc. border on elite, but you’re mad if you think he shows composure with the footy in hand. If he could consistently execute under pressure he’d be AA.

    Point being?

    His coaches, full time professionals working at the elite level, judged him to be our 6th best player.

    He finished 9th in the bluey in 2022 and 6th this season. Back to back top 10s in the b&f of an AFL club that finished top 4 is an objective measure of excellence.

    It's plain silly to think he finished 6th only because of his pressure acts, 1%ers, effort and gut running. 

    I mean c'mon, it's elite level sport, not the local footy club handing out votes to the bloke who is a real trier and always does the barbie.

    And without being facetious, the assessment of an AFL coaching staff holds more water than the vibe based assessment of random footy forum posters.

    Mad if I think he shows composure with footy in hand?

    Did you miss the part when I said he was our best kick inside 50 in terms of kick to score ratio?

    Sure that probably says something about his teammates, but nonetheless hard to top that stat without showing composure with ball in hand. 

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  10. 3 hours ago, fr_ap said:

    I'm in the minority but I think they made the right call. A player like that (presuming things pan out the way they should...no guarantees) can change a club & even if he ends up leaving, having that player in your possession can secure a bounty that in turn secures their draft hand for 2/3 years after he leaves (after having the benefit of him for the first 2/3/4/5 years, particularly if he hits the ground running). That single decision can reverberate across the list for 5-10 years.

    I think people are seduced by quantity over quality, and we're schooled to think that diversifying that risk is smart. It can be, but it greatly diminishes the potential reward. 

    Subjective, but I see very little to enthuse on Curtin. Very little. Tholstrup looks more exciting, but is quite speculative. Collard similiar. Whilst #1 usually doesnt live up the hype, the success rates on the first 4-6 picks are much higher than 8, 13 and 28. 

    If you probability weight the chance of each draftee reaching their maximum output - lets say '100' is that number - in my mind the equation would look like:

    Reid: 90% * 95 = 86


    (Curtin + Tholstrup + Collard) = (50% * 60) + (40% * 80) + (25% * 60) = 77

    Whilst option 2 looks close on paper, my probability assessment for each player succeeding is in a vacuum when in reality they would be somewhat interdependent as teammates. There are clearly more outcomes to cover off - which swings both ways, but depending on your assessment of the players, the chances of any of the 3 being anywhere close to Reid are slim. The chance of more than 1 of them being that good would be close to none. 

    All those inputs are obviously subjective so it depends on how you rate the players.

    90% confidence that Harley can be a 95 player is a massive call clearly and you only need to be 10-15% less confident, or think his ceiling is 80/85 to tip the equation the other way. 

    To my eye, they made the right call and I'd have had no issue if we sold the farm for Harley. 

    All good points.

    One thing that I didn't factor in is if Reid is as good as expected but does want to leave at some point the Eagles will get a bunch of good draft picks and/or players in the trade period.

    They did pretty well out of the Judd deal with Kennedy becoming a legend of the club.

    • Like 2
  11. 1 hour ago, fr_ap said:

    Think they see him as a mid ultimately and that 2k time alone will have done wonders for his draft position in that regard.

    189cm on a HFF would be a great waste, even if he's very good. Get that body, power and skill into the contest where it belongs. If ANB was bigger he'd be a mid, no doubt in my mind.  

    I very much doubt that is the case (that they see him as a mid).

    And his time trial is more relevant for the high half forward role as it is the most aerobically challenging role.  

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  12. 1 hour ago, Gawndy the Great said:

    Yeah it was a dumb, short term view. 
    Had they done the trade with us:

    They could have had Curtin, Thulstrop and one more firsts rounder next year. In effect doubling their high end talent. 

    My gut feel is that they’ll do a Norf and hover round the spoon for another 2-3 years to get the first pick and additional compensation.

    That is probably their list strategy. Problem is, Reid will probably be home sick and tired of finishing last for 2-3 years consecutively and request a trade to Victoria.

    100% agree.

    I don't doubt Reid's talent, and i would have loved to get him.

    But as you say they could have secured probably three first rounders for him - including Curtain who they were apparently super keen on.

    I reckon that would have been the play - particularly given that every season near the end of any contract will be dominated by the 'will reid go home' talk, which would be suffocating in a two team footy mad place like Perth. 

    And as good as Reid might be, it's hard to build a premiership team around a mid. 

    Judd is a good comparison. A once in a generation star who undoubtedly was a huge factor in their 2006 flag (some might argue the biggest factor given his immense talent and how he drove standards - training and on field ones that is) .

    But Judd came into an Eagles team in 2002 that had players of the quality of Cox, the Matera brothers, Cousins, Banfield, Kerr, Glenn Jackovich, Wirrpanda and Michael Gardiner.

    And it still took another 4 years to win a flag.

    The current team Eagles team is incomparable in terms of talent.

    Given how poor their list is (i reckon the worst in the AFL by a mile, particularly in terms of their demographic spread) building a premiership team will require multiple years of being near the foot of the table to get more high draft picks.

    And they have very few players they could afford to trade out to secure some first round draft picks - and given Allen and Barass are both locked away no A graders who might want to leave they could leverage. 

    How long does a player as good as Reid want to play in rubbish sides?

    By way of comparison, the roos are in much better shape with their bevy of first round draft picks in the last three seasons.


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  13. 3 hours ago, Fat Tony said:

    Ran 6.17 for the 2km time trial which was 10th at the Draft Combine. I think he’s actually a decent runner. 

    This is critical.

    Says two things - one he is a natural athlete. And two he must be a hard worker.

    I suspect nibbla's 2km draft trial was similarly impressive and i'm guessing the role they have in mind for Koltyn is, like Nibla, the high half forward role.

    As i have banged on about that role has become critical in footy and was a clear need we had to fill (ie another elite high half forward to compliment Nibbla).  

    Appears to have good foot skills too, which is important

    Nibbla has really improved his field kicking and was our best kick inside 50 last season (as defined by kick to score ratio - our three worst were Tracc, Oliver and Gawn).

    Having a player on both flanks who can hit a target inside 50 will be a big positive. 

    Good get. 

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