Jump to content

binman

Life Member
  • Posts

    14,486
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    94

Posts posted by binman

  1. 19 minutes ago, loges said:

    Like how it's going to be humid and slippery in Alice Springs on the weekend 

    In the Alice today the forecast is 28 degrees and partly cloudy.

    Big drop of rain (up to 30mm) coming tommorow.

    So if it was ever going to he humid it would be today.

    The forecast is for only 35% humidity.

    By way of contrast, today's  forecast for Melbourne is Max 21 degrees, and like in the Alice, rain is forecast for tommorow, albeit a lot less (up to 8mm).

    The forecast is for 46% humidity here.

    Our game on Sunday starts at 1pm. Perfect start time as it gets cold in the Alice once the sun starts going down.

    And I assumeit  gets very dewy on sunny days like it will be on Sunday. Sunset is at 5:56 pm, so a good two and a bit hours after the game finishes.

    Absolutely perfect conditions for footy:

    Screenshot_20240529_104601_BOMWeather.thumb.jpg.8de1153b305bc7e169756db9bc9b1568.jpg

     

    • Like 2
  2. 10 minutes ago, Pennant St Dee said:

    Freo play on Optus which is notoriously hard deck, so the surface is not similar 

    I'm amazed how hard the ground at optus is given how new the ground is.

    It also often looks very patchwork

    Cant be great for dockers and eagles players.

    IIRC, when the G first went to grass on a concrete base ir was also too hard for a period of time.

    Docklands was also rock hard I  it's first few seasons- and in addition often had large areas of shifting turf.

    I would have thought the technology and practice would have improved by the time optus was built.

    • Like 1
  3. 12 hours ago, JJJ said:

    JVR’s trajectory is going well. I think we differ an where he will finish up. More on that later.

    On your 1st point, JVR does not consistently impact the game as a key forward should YET. His trajectory points to that in the future but he is still young, developing and learning his craft. I believe he will get there. One can lack impact but still be on a positive trajectory. I am not sure how you don’t understand that concept.

    I don’t believe I have ever questioned his impact for a player of his age and experience. That’s not a metric I’m interested in as we are in the Premiership window. If he is playing, he has to fulfil the role he is given. He has a lot to work on but he is already important to us structurally.

    There is no contradiction in pointing out his poor hands and average body work to his trajectory as a key forward. As you clearly state, he has other elite traits. Athleticism, work rate, leading patterns, defensive work, goal kicking, attack on the ball and aerobic capacity point to an end product that could be pretty bloody good. He also has an appetite to win the footy and the requisite strut but that shouldn’t be mistaken for his lack of craft when one-on-one.

    Regarding the Amiss comp. It’s a good one as they are contemporaries in similar situations. Amiss has stalled a little this year but I believe he is potentially an AA in the future. JVR similarly has flattened out a little in 2024 but should get back on track.

    I have watched a lot of footy in various capacities and from the eye test, Amiss seems to have a higher ceiling with a few more strings to his bow. I see JVR peaking as an A-Grader and key pillar for our future but would be surprised, pleasantly so, if he won an AA blazer.

    But development is neither a given nor is it linear so who knows?!

    Well reasoned, and I appreciate the measured response.

    But the data for the metrics you chose don't support your argument and i think your premise is founded on flawed logic.

    For example, saying you think JVR does not consistently impact the game as a key forward should YET is setting a strange benchmark ie what he will become as opposed to what can reasonably be expected t9 be at his current age and stage of development.

    And besides, I disagree that he doesn't impact the game consistently enough right now.

    He is our best key forward NOW. Certainly our most consistent one.

    And as I have noted I disagree completely his body work is poor. It just isn't. 

    And whilst I think his hands could be stickier, i don't agree his hands are 'poor'. Far from it.

    I mean, his contested mark numbers indicate he has really good hands.

    50th in the AFL this season for ALL forwards for contested marks puts him ahead of a lot of good footballers. That's not possible without having good hands.

    And again, unlike almost every other key forward, JVR is also a second ruck. If he had the luxury of staying inside 50 the whole game and not gassing himself rucking he'd clunk more marks.

    That ruck role has to be factored into the assessment of his forward craft and his value to the team.

    Just one aspect is taking 20 ruck contests a game allows maxy to be the dominant player he is.

    And the fact that JVR holds his own when rucking means we don't get opened up when maxy is on the bench. 

    And his around the ground rucking also demonstrates how well he uses his body.

    What other young key forward does any rucking?

    Of the more senior pure key forwards, I can only think of Daniher who takes as many ruck contests as JVR.

    I too have watched a lot football. And seen a lot of young key forwards come and go.

    JVR is only in his third season, and just his second playing seniors. He has just turned 21.

    The level he played at last year, when still 20, and is playing at this year, is remarkable, as is how important he is for us.

    Cadman, a number one draft pick is a year behind roey. He is in his second season, and regualarly in the ones, so comparable to where JVR was last season. He looks good, but is nowhere near as impactful or as important to his teams' fortunes as JVR was last season.

    In my 45 plus years of watching the dees, the only two key forwards compare to JVR at the same age in terms of impact (not potential impact, actual impact) are the ox and Jessie Hogan.

  4. 4 hours ago, JJJ said:

    Wow.

    I don’t think JUH is impactful enough yet either. Also, I wouldn’t compare them statistically like the above, as comparisons like that are mostly useless unless you’re comparing in a vacuum.

    Key forwards are measured offensively on; number of targets inside 50, contests won/lost & score involvements/assists.

    Anyway, if you’ve read my other posts you will also realise that I acknowledge that he is young and going well. Just pointing out that as a young key forward he hasn’t taken the step where he consistently hits the scoreboard or asserts himself when things aren’t in our favour. It will come.

    Lastly, I have never once questioned his trajectory other than to say that his hands aren’t elite for a key forward nor his body on body work. The latter can be developed, the former not so much.

    How do you square 'not impactful enough' with not questioning his trajectory?

    If you think is trajectory is OK, then by definition isn't he sufficiently impactful for his age and stage of development?

    And isn't there a contradiction in saying his trajectory as a key forward is fine but his hands aren’t elite for a key forward nor his body on body work?

    I'd agree he could improve his marking, but completely disagree about his one on one ability.

    For a 21 year old playing in the ruck and as a key forward, almost always on bigger and older opponents, he is elite one on one.

    In fact I'd say that's his greatest strength - it's the thing that immediately stood out the first time I saw him play live at Casey.

    Agree your key metrics for key forwards - number of targets inside 50, contests won/lost & score involvements/assists - are good indicators for key forwards.

    The only key forward player in the AFL 21 or under who is anywhere near as good as JVR is Amiss. 

    Amiss has JVR  covered for average assists per game this season (0.60 to 0.40 - by way of contrast Hawkins and Dixon average 0.44 and the Coleman medallist, Curnow 0.55).

    JVR has Amiss covered for score involvements this season (4.30 to 4.20 - both impressive actually - by way of contrast Larkey averages 4.55 score involvements).

    JVR has Amiss well and truly covered for average contested marks this season (0.6 to 0.5).

    Ranked equal 50th with Jeremy cameron, JVR  is ahead of Daniher and Larkey for average contested marks per game this season.

    Impressive given how taxing the donkey work as a back up ruck is, particularly for a kid.

    (Note: the data above is for forwards who have played a minimum 5 games this season).

    And I'm pretty sure I heard last week that JVR is number one in the AFL for most targeted key forward.

    On top of all that he is miles ahead of most key forwards, young and old, for accuracy, kicking efficiency, tackles and one percenters.

    None of that adds up to 'not impactful enough'.

    It adds up to a kid who at 21 is incredibly impactful for his age (comparable to some of the greats), the best young forward in the AFL and a future rolled gold, AA star.

    It is crazy how underrated he is, even by some dees fans.

    • Like 5
    • Love 2
  5. 13 hours ago, JJJ said:

    It probably tells us that JVR is not impactful enough to swim against the tide. As in his goal tally is a result of a dominant midfield, not him dominating an opponent.

    You're kidding right.

    That's what you take from that data - JVR is not impactful enough?

    Kids has just turned 21 and in my opinion is the best forward 21 and under in the game. And in the next 3-4 years will develop into the best key forward full stop. 

    People rightly rate Ugle Hagan highly. So do i. This is how their season's compare thus far.

    JUH shades JVR in most stats, most notably contested marks, but not all.

    JVR has JUH well and truly covered for disposal efficiency and has half the number of clangers. And unlike JUH, JVR does not have the luxury of swanning around the forward line the whole game, having to take 20 odd ruck contests game as our second ruck. No mean feat for a 21 year old. Probably explains why he is worth more for super coach. 

    And of course a key point is JUH is a year older than JVR and has another year of AFL level development. 

    Player Statistics Comparison
     
    Jacob Van Rooyen Name Jamarra Ugle-Hagan
    Melbourne Demons Team Western Bulldogs
    Forward Position Forward
    30 Career Games 54
    Claremont Origin Oakleigh Chargers
    April 16, 2003 Date of Birth April 4, 2002
    21yr 1mth Age 22yr 1mth
    193cm Height 197cm
    96kg Weight 91kg
    2021 National Draft Last Drafted In 2020 National Draft
    Round 1, Pick #19 Last Draft Position Round 1, Pick #1
    Melbourne Demons Last Drafted By Western Bulldogs
    2024 Stats for Season 2024
    10 Games 9
    5.2 Kicks 8.6
    4.2 Handballs 2.4
    9.4 Disposals 11.0
    3.1 Marks 5.1
    1.3 Goals 1.8
    0.6 Behinds 1.7
    1.7 Tackles 1.3
    3.5 Hitouts 0
    1.5 Inside 50s 1.9
    0.4 Goal Assists 0.2
    1.2 Frees For 0.9
    0.9 Frees Against 1.1
    4.3 Contested Possessions 5.9
    5.1 Uncontested Possessions 5.3
    7.3 Effective Disposals 5.7
    77.7% Disposal Efficiency % 51.8%
    1.8 Clangers 3.6
    0.6 Contested Marks 2.2
    1.3 Marks Inside 50 3.1
    0.8 Clearances 0.6
    0 Rebound 50s 0
    1.5 One Percenters 0.8
    0.1 Bounces 0
    75.0 Time On Ground % 84.4
    0.3 Centre Clearances 0
    0.5 Stoppage Clearances 0.6
    4.3 Score Involvements 5.3
    135.7 Metres Gained 230.1
    1.9 Turnovers 3.1
    0.5 Intercepts 0.4
    0.6 Tackles Inside 50 0.6
    $426,000 AFL Fantasy Price $502,000
    50.5 AFL Fantasy Score 61.1
    $283,900 Supercoach Price $281,000
    54.8 Supercoach Score 58.1
    • Like 4
  6. 18 minutes ago, Binmans PA said:

    This makes sense. It surprised me yesterday though given we played a higher line, so ground ball gets against had the potential to cut us open, but didn't.

    Their kicking was woeful in the main.

    And it seemed as if we dared them to take on the corridor and the saints refused the invite.

    That said, 54 of their 66 points were from turnover. That's nuts.

    That's only 4 points less than we scored from turnover. And is nearly 11 points more than we concede per match on average.

    I can't imagine that number pleased goody. 

    • Like 2
    • Shocked 1
  7. 45 minutes ago, binman said:

    A couple of factors come to mind.

    A key one is having 2 of our 3 best kicks - salem and bowey - out of the side for a big chunks of time.

    That iss compounded by both players being half back flankers, the engine room for creating high quality scoring opportunities on turnover and transition.

    Given the key role elite distributors play in the turnover game, its no surprise we look much better on transition with those two in the side.

    I think another factor is that we have a number of players who ate not great kicks.

    And perhaps the biggest factor is we are trying to implement a new system, which will always be a challenge, particularly for a team that is so systems based, and one that has a super defined system drilled into them for 3 plus years.

    The swans are the deserved benchmark for the turnover game

    But I think it's worth noting that they have been using that method for the last 2 seasons and are the most settled team in the AFL in terms of forced changes.

    Consider the impact if they lost 2 of their 3 best kicks that are key to their transition game - say blakely and gulden.

    • Like 2
  8. On 21/05/2024 at 09:35, layzie said:

    What do you put this down to Binman? Not enough skill when we turn it over? Not generating enough turnovers in the first place or in areas where we want them?

    A couple of factors come to mind.

    A key one is having 2 of our 3 best kicks - salem and bowey - out of the side for a big chunks of time.

    That iss compounded by both players being half back flankers, the engine room for creating high quality scoring opportunities on turnover and transition.

    Given the key role elite distributors play in the turnover game, its no surprise we look much better on transition with those two in the side.

    I think another factor is that we have a number of players who ate not great kicks.

    And perhaps the biggest factor is we are trying to implement a new system, which will always be a challenge, particularly for a team that is so systems based, and one that has a super defined system drilled into them for 3 plus years.

    • Like 4
  9. 3 hours ago, Binmans PA said:

    Look at that -21 for ground balls stat. Crazy how that stat has become so inconsequential to how we play.

    There's an interesting potential correlation with the loose ball gets as per wheelos terrific addition to his stats.

    Melbourne's Forward 50

    Loose Ball Gets: -14

    Post clearance

    Loose ball gets: -19 

    Pre clearance

    Loose Ball Gets: -3

    I suspect one of the causal factors driving the post clearance, inside our forward 50 and the ground ball numbers, is the Lyon defensive flood. 

    They often seemed to have at least a couple of extra players defending our forward line.

    • Like 2
  10. 14 minutes ago, DEE fence said:

    Is no disrespect to those awesome Demons to acknowledge Max as GOAT. Madden was very very good, but also played one out, We would win by cricket scores if Max played one on one in the forward line.

    He's starting to mount an argument as the best ruck in the modern era.

    Def the best ruck at Melbourne, and that's no disrespect to White, Jimmy and Baker.

    • Like 1
  11. 19 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

    Not sure about the fixture point. 

    We still have Collingwood twice, Fremantle twice, GWS, Port, Essendon, Brisbane in Brisbane, GC on the GC and the Dogs at Marvel.

    Still four more interstate trips (Essendon by contrast have just two).

    We’ve done well enough given the early travel but there are plenty of challenges on our fixture still to come. 

    Agree we still have a pretty tough run home.

    (But I'd add we have games against the Eagles at roos at the g to come)

    But that wasn’t my point.

    My point was our run home is not as tough as our first 11 games.

    Two five day breaks. A six day break.

    Four interstate games.

    Both Adelaide teams at home.

    Have played the swans, port, cats and blues, meaning 4 of our 11 games have been against teams currently in the top 8, 2 against top 4 teams. 

    And we are 4th.

    The ladder doesn't lie (well perhaps for the bombers it does).

    As much as some on here might try to convince people otherwise, you can't magic up 4th on the ladder after 11 rounds with the fixture we have had.

    • Like 10
    • Thanks 2
    • Clap 1
  12. Had a family lunch, so had to watch the game as live. Just finished it.

    Great win.

    Haven't read this thread yet.

    I assume posters, even the ones convinced we are hopeless, have given us full credit and not putting some sort of asterisk on it.

    The ladder doesn't lie.

    Fourth on the ladder close to the halfway part of the season with our toughest games and schedule behind us.

    Go redleggers.

    • Like 18
    • Thanks 1
    • Love 1
    • Clap 1
  13. 1 hour ago, 640MD said:

    $3.40 wowee ala Roaming Brian 

    someone who does not follow Melbourne is very confident.  Like last week.  It’s games like this that we should win easily that we indeed do not turn up to play until half time. 
    Game Over.   That first quarter 

    still not confident 

    No, not someone.

    Thousands of people, including professional punters risking serious coin, have backed us to win, which explains why we are 1.33 to win. 

    Of course that doesn't mean we will - you only have to go to one harness meeting to understand 1.33 favourites can get rolled.

    But the thing I like about the betting market is we punters do our best to strip out emotion and be as objective as possible.

    After all it's cold hard cash on the line not a throw away prediction or a lead tipping comps.

    (And even if there are some emotion driven punters adding a drip to the pool, a big chunk of them are probably woe us us dees fans backing the saints)

    Which is why the betting market is by far the best predictor of the probable outcome of any given match.

     

    • Like 2
  14. 13 hours ago, binman said:

    Essential viewing:

    The Scott press conference.

    Old mate Scotty didn't disappointed.

    I admire his confidence.

    He could have gone safe in his attempt to win the coveted Poor sportsmanship- coaches division award (or as it is colloquially known, the sour puss).

    After all  he has a handy lead over mcrae, who has surged of late, scoring big with his patented go to passive aggressive routine.

    But, no, Scotty decided to attempt the rare triple pay the opponents no respect move - and totally nailed it. Respect.

    The cats apparently played poorly for 3 quarters against the giants, port and dees - and still almost won (he got bonus points for using the under a goal line - the judges loved it).

    Though he missed a chance to try the even rarer quadruple disrespect trick by not disrespecting the suns a bit more.

    Though he did pick up some easy points by acting if having 160 points scored against them is no big deal.

    And really, probably didn't need the extra points after totally nailing his signature 'no disrespect with a backhanded compliment twist' trick.

    As scott noted, a big factor in the game was the giants taking contested marks

    But, with 'no disrespect', the giants' old school strategy of kicking long to a contest was very basic - but only worked because the cats marked poorly.

    And the judges gave Scott extra points for that trick for the litte twist only the true sour puss aficionados would have picked up - that backhanded compliment was the ONLY time he mentioned the Giants.

    Personally, I loved how Scotty slipped in the tried and true trick of, apropos of nothing, mentioning that the cats have young players (all 3 of them)

    A bravura performance.

    • Like 4
    • Haha 2
    • Clap 2
  15. 31 minutes ago, MrFreeze said:

    Absolutely, they whooped us in a number of areas, especially centre bounces. 

    #Demon myths

    We smashed them from centre clearances:

    Summary

    Category Score Against Diff
    Kick-in 0.0.0 0.0.0 +0
    Centre Bounce 4.1.25 1.1.7 +18
    Stoppage (Other) 5.1.31 4.4.28 +3
           
    • Shocked 1
  16. 22 minutes ago, fr_ap said:

    Sure, I rambled a little. I'll sum it up. 

    Gamestyle matters very little and our problem is that the team itself isn't much chop, and that culture and standards have fallen. Plenty on here saw it coming.

    You lot are wasting your time throwing theoretical "gamestyle, score source" arguments into the void to avoid coming to terms with the more jarring reality that this list is no longer capable of success. It's easier to blame tactics. I get it. Most EPL club owners do the same thing.

    So if this list does achieve success you will reassess?

    • Like 1
    • Haha 1
  17. 2 minutes ago, fr_ap said:

    Honestly this is getting uselessly academic & tiresome. At best, game styles are almost entirely aspirational and depend on what each opposition brings. Add in the randomness of 36 on-ground individuals making distinct and random decisions, as well as external factors like weather and umpires...you get the drift. Some sports have narrower guardrails by their nature - we are pretty free form.

    Imo the point of the 'gamestyle' isn't to dictate how and when we execute plays -  but is moreso about imbuing principles - contest, defence, tempo - that players can remember and execute in split second decisions in the heat of battle. 

    For a few years there, our principles were strong and clear and suited the strengths of our key players and role players. We also established really high standards and fostered a culture that maintained this. The list build was informed by these principles and standards, and so we were in sync at all levels - AFL through to VFL. 

    To take advantage of this, we had several of the best players in the AFL in key positions, and some pretty good players in other positions too. Ultimately this is the most important thing. The best players will always control who wins games. 

    Following the flag, the culture and standards started to fall away, and crucially we've recruited individuals who were not suited to our principles (Hunter, Schache, Billings, Fullarton). A lot of our 'very good' players who's strengths agreed to our principles (Brayshaw, Hibberd) either retired, regressed (Sparrow, Bowey, Brown, Mcdonald) or left the club (Harmes, Jordon, Jackson). All these guys had flaws, but were strong at our principles. We've replaced them with players who have some other strengths, but don't align to the Melbourne principles. They become weak links in the chain.

    Most importantly, the remaining players who embodied our principles the most (Viney & Oliver) have fallen off a cliff for different reasons.

    We look so unrecognisable because our contest is gone. We're no longer winning more than our share of critical contests - bottom 4 at clearances, bottom 10 at contested footy. Our tackling is weak. 

    This is not the fault of the coaching staff, who showed they could build the environment and a set of principles that can be successful. It's way too easy to blame our issues on a "gamestyle". 

    Our window is over because of our recruiting and list building since the flag, which has been probably the worst of any team in the comp. Other than Windsor this year, we have not added a single player who has added positively to the team. Not a single one. 

    There has been plenty of quality on the market in positions we needed. We either can't identify it, can't attract it, or couldn't pay for it because we've locked up so many on long term contracts. 

    Why Tim Lamb gets love around here is beyond me - he's done a horrendous job. He wouldn't be making list decisions in a vacuum, but it ultimately falls on him. 

    JT, Josh Mahoney, Roos, Jackson, Brendan Mccartney and Goodwin were responsible for our flag, and Lamb is responsible for our stagnation since.

    Gamestyle gamestyle gamestyle bla bla - Goodwin no longer has the cattle at his disposal. 

    Sorry, not sure i follow. 

    • Haha 2
  18. 24 minutes ago, Tolstoys Nudge said:

    Suggest that umpire will get a rest, whilst Nicholls controversy last night gets full AFL Support.. absolute free kick everyday of week and tbh I’m really tired of McRae passive-aggression & hope maybe someone will finally call it out in mass-hysteria-media as his pressers are getting more and more virulently poor.

    Funny you should mention that.

    He did the half time interview they do walking with the coach to the bench.

    Was rude and didmissive. Made some lame joke at the end about Sarah knowing how much he 'loves' those interviews.

    Passive aggressive was exactly the thought i had. I wondered waht that was all about given hsi image as Me Media 

    Then when they went back to the commentary team Brian Taylor contextualized his comments and tone, saying Mcrae doesn't like in match interviews which is why he doesn't do them often.

    What coach does? [censored] poor if you ask me

    • Like 3
×
×
  • Create New...