binman
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Posts posted by binman
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Edited by binman
10 hours ago, titan_uranus said: When he was talking about the unfairness of playing a side coming off Opening Round, he also noted that in the next few weeks we have consecutive games against sides coming off a bye (Round 3 vs Carlton, then Round 4 vs Gold Coast).
This sort of stuff is fixable - the easiest way of course is to remove the byes by removing Opening Round altogether and having everyone start on the same weekend, in Round 1. Just have the four northern clubs get home games in prime time slots.
OR is ridiculous, and I've found it interesting how many coaches have been prepared to say so.
So emblamatic of the AFL's philosophy of putting profit and market share over ensuring the competition is as fair and equitable as possible.
I mean it creates a potential inequity from the very beginning of the season.
But if they ARE going to have an OR, surely the logical thing to do would for all 8 teams who play OR to play a team who also played in OR in round one.
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14 hours ago, AB10 said: Very underrated game from Tholstrup today, went everywhere with Nas and really curbed his influence on the game. Yes he still kicked 3 but sometimes you just have to tip your hat to talent!
Wholeheartedly agree.
Sure Nas kicked 3 and he had a really good game, tgough not a match winning one (it’s a measure of how well he is playing that his player rating was 16.7 and was the Saints 3rd highest rated player, yet most would consider he had an average game).
But in a game with 33 goals kicked 3 goals is not a match winning haul, and I think I'm right in saying all three were kicked when he was playing forward, presumably trying, and I guess succeeding, to exploit Kolt defending him.
But I'd much rather Nas play forward than on ball, particularly in the last quarter when his elite run and carry and bal use would have much more a concern than being moored inside his 50.
In that context comparative score involvements tell an interesting tale. Nas had 6 (which includes his 3 goals) and Kolt had 8.
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Edited by binman
43 minutes ago, WheeloRatings said: Melbourne v St Kilda (Round 1, 2026)
https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20260108
Pressure
Team pressure
Quarter
For
Agn
Diff
1
156
164
-8
2
162
171
-9
3
177
172
+5
4
166
179
-13
Match
165
172
-7
Source: Herald Sun
Most Pressure Points
Note: pressure points are the weighed sum of pressure acts. Physical pressure acts are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2. ( https://www.championdata.com/glossary/afl/ )
Player
Pressure
ActsPressure
PointsSeason
AverageKysaiah Pickett
19
50
50.0
Caleb Windsor
23
48
48.0
Kade Chandler
19
40
40.0
Tom Sparrow
20
40
40.0
Trent Rivers
16
35
35.0
Harrison Petty
15
31
31.0
Daniel Turner
15
30
30.0
Jai Culley
11
28
28.0
Jack Steele
13
27
27.0
Harry Sharp
11
26
26.0
Christian Salem
9
25
25.0
Ed Langdon
11
25
25.0
Harvey Langford
10
23
23.0
Changkuoth Jiath
12
23
23.0
Koltyn Tholstrup
9
21
21.0
Xavier Lindsay
10
21
21.0
Max Gawn
7
21
21.0
Jake Lever
11
18
18.0
Brody Mihocek
7
15
15.0
Jacob van Rooyen
6
12
12.0
Bayley Fritsch
3
10
10.0
Blake Howes
3
6
6.0
Latrelle Pickett
2
2
2.0
Source: Herald Sun
Low all team pressure - however I think that is a function of both team's method and will be a trend for us and the competition (the same factor drving the increased importance of ball use equity compared to ball winning equity).
Fewer stoppages, less emphasis on winning contested balls (except post clearance - i think that willl remain critical) and more outside run and carry combine to mean less opportunity to accumulate pressure points from physical contact (the highest scoring actions).
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3 hours ago, WheeloRatings said: The Stats File posts this season will include a few new stats, including:
Retention of kicks into forward 50;
Metres gained by kick and by handball;
Equity points, including points from ball winning and points from ball use (my implementation of the AFL Player Ratings);
xChainScore - expected points scored based on the origin of a team's chains, including clearances, turnovers and kick-ins.
Melbourne v St Kilda (Round 1, 2026)
https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20260108
Key Team Stats
Stats in bold were won by Melbourne.
Stat
For
Against
Diff
AFL
Disposal Efficiency
Disposal Retention
73.4
75.4
-2.0
71.3
Disposal Efficiency
74.5
77.9
-3.4
74.1
Kicking Efficiency
67.0
71.8
-4.8
67.7
Kick Into Forward 50 Retention
67.4
56.8
+10.6
47.5
Metres Gained
Kick Metres Gained
5809
6015
-206
Kick Metres Gained / Kick
27.9
25.3
+2.7
26.3
Handball Metres Gained
231
10
+221
Territory/Attack
Time In Forward Half
54.2
45.8
+8.4
Inside 50s
57
53
+4
Shots At Goal
36
33
+3
Scores / Inside 50
52.6
60.4
-7.7
48.0
Goals / Inside 50
31.6
28.3
+3.3
25.1
Marks Inside 50
19
20
-1
Transition
Chain To Score %
29.1
29.9
-0.8
23.4
Defensive 50 To Forward 50 %
27.0
28.9
-1.9
24.5
Defensive 50 To Score %
16.2
18.4
-2.2
10.6
Defensive Half To Forward 50 %
35.5
36.9
-1.4
32.5
Defensive Half To Score %
19.4
23.1
-3.7
14.1
Contest
Contested Possessions
119
129
-10
Ground Ball Gets
79
87
-8
Post Clearance Contested Poss
75
74
+1
Post Clearance Ground Ball Gets
55
52
+3
Contested Marks
10
11
-1
Clearance
Total Clearances
36
41
-5
Centre Clearances
17
15
+2
Stoppage Clearances
19
26
-7
First Possessions
38
44
-6
First Possession To Clearance %
73.7
77.3
-3.6
75.2
Defense
Intercepts
53
55
-2
Intercept Marks
13
13
+0
Tackles
42
41
+1
Tackles Inside 50
5
2
+3
Def One On One Loss %
33.3
50.0
-16.7
27.2
Ruck
Hitouts
44
25
+19
Hitouts To Advantage
10
8
+2
Equity Points
Pre Clearance
33.5
38.0
-4.6
Post Clearance
156.0
142.5
+13.5
Ball Winning
108.6
112.8
-4.2
Ball Use
81.7
68.9
+12.8
Transition stats measure how often chains result in a score or an inside 50. Chains include all kick-in chains, all clearances, and intercepts with at least one disposal in the chain.
Chain To Score %: proportion of all chains that resulted in a score.
Defensive 50 To Forward 50 %: proportion of all chains starting in the defensive 50 that resulted in an inside 50.
Defensive 50 To Score %: proportion of all chains starting in the defensive 50 that resulted in a score.
Defensive Half To Forward 50 %: proportion of all chains starting in the defensive half that resulted in an inside 50.
Defensive Half To Score %: proportion of all chains starting in the defensive half that resulted in a score.
Equity is the WheeloRatings implementation of the AFL Player Ratings.
Ball Winning: Equity points from winning possession of the ball.
Ball Use: Equity points from disposal, including shots at goal, and carrying the ball.
Player Ratings
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Match
TOG
Ball
Win.Ball
UseJacob van Rooyen
7.0
10.9
1.1
6.0
25.0
82%
6.1
15.8
Jack Steele
1.1
7.5
4.3
6.7
19.7
72%
6.2
9.6
Max Gawn
2.0
4.6
2.5
6.5
15.7
91%
12.0
2.8
Harry Sharp
1.3
2.3
−1.0
11.2
13.9
51%
5.7
5.2
Xavier Lindsay
0.8
2.7
9.2
0.7
13.4
76%
4.3
5.6
Caleb Windsor
7.2
−0.1
1.6
3.6
12.3
79%
4.5
4.4
Bayley Fritsch
1.5
3.6
3.7
2.8
11.6
81%
4.9
5.7
Kade Chandler
1.3
5.2
3.6
1.4
11.5
81%
3.8
4.0
Trent Rivers
2.9
4.2
3.5
0.9
11.4
58%
2.1
5.2
Harrison Petty
3.7
5.4
1.7
−0.3
10.6
86%
5.5
1.9
Daniel Turner
2.6
3.6
2.2
2.2
10.5
96%
4.4
2.1
Harvey Langford
2.2
4.5
3.3
0.2
10.2
72%
4.0
5.2
Blake Howes
1.6
2.9
3.3
2.4
10.1
82%
6.0
0.1
Koltyn Tholstrup
−0.2
4.2
1.7
3.0
8.8
82%
3.4
3.8
Changkuoth Jiath
4.9
2.5
0.0
0.9
8.2
70%
2.9
2.4
Kysaiah Pickett
0.1
1.0
4.0
2.0
7.0
82%
6.7
−1.2
Jai Culley
2.0
−1.8
5.6
1.2
7.0
79%
4.2
2.5
Latrelle Pickett
1.6
3.9
1.6
−0.2
7.0
59%
2.6
5.5
Brody Mihocek
−1.0
3.7
1.2
3.0
6.9
84%
6.3
−0.5
Christian Salem
1.5
1.4
2.2
1.2
6.3
80%
3.0
0.4
Jake Lever
0.3
−2.0
4.8
2.8
5.8
99%
5.0
−2.3
Tom Sparrow
0.7
2.3
2.5
−0.3
5.1
72%
2.1
2.1
Ed Langdon
1.7
−0.7
3.3
−0.2
4.2
89%
3.0
1.5
Contested Possessions
For
Against
Diff
Melbourne's Defensive 50
Hard Ball Get
3
4
-1
Loose Ball Get
13
9
+4
Contested Mark
3
3
0
Gather From Hitout
1
2
-1
Contested Knock On
1
0
+1
Free For
0
1
-1
Total
21
19
+2
Melbourne's Forward 50
Hard Ball Get
4
4
0
Loose Ball Get
10
12
-2
Contested Mark
2
3
-1
Ruck Hard Ball Get
1
1
0
Gather From Hitout
1
1
0
Contested Knock On
0
2
-2
Free For
2
2
0
Total
20
25
-5
Post clearance
Hard Ball Get
12
8
+4
Loose Ball Get
43
44
-1
Contested Mark
10
11
-1
Contested Knock On
4
5
-1
Free For
6
6
0
Total
75
74
+1
Pre clearance
Hard Ball Get
4
10
-6
Loose Ball Get
20
25
-5
Ruck Hard Ball Get
7
3
+4
Gather From Hitout
9
7
+2
Contested Knock On
3
2
+1
Free For
1
7
-6
Total
44
54
-10
Official data on pre- and post-clearance contested possessions are not available. These have been estimated by Wheelo Ratings and should be indicative.
Ground ball gets are inclusive of hard ball gets and loose ball gets.
'Free For' does not include free kicks to advantage or free kicks while in possession of the ball as these are not counted as contested possessions.
Expected scores
xScore
Score
xWin %
xMargin
Margin
Swing
Melbourne
122.5
120
77%
+15.3
+13
St Kilda
107.2
107
23%
+2.3
Shots
Score
Accuracy
xScore
+/-
Overall
Melbourne
36
18.11 119
50.0%
121.5
−2.5
St Kilda
33
15.13 103
45.5%
105.2
−2.2
General Play
Melbourne
19
8.7 55
42.1%
62.1
−7.1
St Kilda
15
7.6 48
46.7%
41.8
+6.2
Set Position
Melbourne
17
10.4 64
58.8%
59.4
+4.6
St Kilda
18
8.7 55
44.4%
63.5
−8.5
xWin %: win probability based on expected scores.
Swing: difference between expected margin and actual margin.
xScore: total expected score from all shots taken.
+/-: total score above or below expected score.
xSc. / Shot: average expected score per shot. This represents the average shot difficulty.
Shot Rating: average score above or below expected score per shot at goal.
Notes: Expected scores are calculated by Wheelo Ratings. Each shot at goal is assigned an expected score based on the distance from goal, shot angle, and type of shot (e.g. set shot, general play following contested possession, general play following uncontested possession, ground kick, etc) as a proxy for pressure. The model does not take into account factors like the player, whether the ball was kicked with their preferred or non-preferred foot, and pressure on the player when taking the shot. Rushed behinds are excluded from actual and expected scores.
Territory (time in zones)
Region
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Match
Season
Half
Forward
55%
60%
50%
52%
54%
54%
Defensive
45%
40%
50%
48%
46%
46%
Region
Forward 50
25%
35%
21%
23%
26%
26%
Attacking Midfield
30%
25%
29%
29%
28%
28%
Defensive Midfield
23%
21%
21%
27%
23%
23%
Defensive 50
23%
19%
29%
21%
23%
23%
Source: Calculated by Wheelo Ratings.
Score Sources
Summary
Score Source
xChainScore
Score
Diff
Melbourne
Kick-in
5.9
2.1 13
+7.1
Centre Bounce
15.9
2.3 15
-0.9
Stoppage (Other)
18.5
3.4 22
+3.5
Turnover
35.3
11.4 70
+34.7
Opposition
Kick-in
4.2
1.0 6
+1.8
Centre Bounce
14.0
2.3 15
+1.0
Stoppage (Other)
22.5
4.6 30
+7.5
Turnover
38.7
8.8 56
+17.3
Diff
Kick-in
+1.7
+7
Centre Bounce
+1.9
+0
Stoppage (Other)
-4.0
-8
Turnover
-3.4
+14
xChainScore: expected points scored based on the origin of a team’s chains, including clearances, turnovers, and kick-ins.
Score Source
For
Against
Match
Season
Match
Season *
Kick-in
13
13.0
6
6.0
Centre Bounce
15
15.0
15
15.0
Stoppage (Other)
22
22.0
30
30.0
Turnover
70
70.0
56
56.0
* Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by St Kilda.
Chain start region
Note: region is from the scoring team's perspective.
Region
For
Against
Match
Season
Match
Season *
Defensive 50
26
26.0
22
22.0
Defensive midfield
26
26.0
28
28.0
Centre bounce
15
15.0
15
15.0
Attacking midfield
39
39.0
23
23.0
Forward 50
14
14.0
19
19.0
* Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by St Kilda.
Points from defensive half
For
Against
Match
Season
Match
Season *
52
52.0
50
50.0
* Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by St Kilda.
Centre Bounce Attendances
CBAs
CBA %
2026 %
2025 %
Max Gawn
32
89%
88.9%
85.5%
Kysaiah Pickett
24
67%
66.7%
69.0%
Jack Steele
22
61%
61.1%
74.3%
Caleb Windsor
20
56%
55.6%
12.1%
Trent Rivers
16
44%
44.4%
19.9%
Koltyn Tholstrup
9
25%
25.0%
0.0%
Harvey Langford
7
19%
19.4%
9.9%
Tom Sparrow
7
19%
19.4%
6.6%
Harrison Petty
4
11%
11.1%
0.4%
Xavier Lindsay
2
6%
5.6%
0.4%
Christian Salem
1
3%
2.8%
1.5%
Brody Mihocek
0
0%
0.0%
0.2%
Daniel Turner
0
0%
0.0%
0.2%
Ed Langdon
0
0%
0.0%
3.1%
Jacob van Rooyen
0
0%
0.0%
13.4%
Kade Chandler
0
0%
0.0%
1.1%
Ruck Contests and Hitouts
Ruck Contests
Ruck
ContestsRC %
2026 %
2025 %
Max Gawn
70
78%
77.8%
81.5%
Jacob van Rooyen
10
11%
11.1%
15.0%
Harrison Petty
9
10%
10.0%
2.8%
Brody Mihocek
1
1%
1.1%
2.7%
Daniel Turner
0
0%
0.0%
0.2%
Hitouts
Ruck
ContestsHitouts
To
Adv.To Adv. %
(2026)To Adv. %
(2025)Melbourne
Max Gawn
70
36
7
19.4%
27.8%
Harrison Petty
9
5
3
60.0%
23.6%
Jacob van Rooyen
10
3
0
0.0%
30.3%
Brody Mihocek
1
0
0
45.4%
Opposition
Tom De Koning
67
20
6
Isaac Keeler
14
3
1
Mitch Owens
9
2
1
Brilliant, many thanks @WheeloRatings. Really like the new stats.
Am I right to assume the equity points is an aggregate of player ratings to arrive at a whole of team score?
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18 minutes ago, titan_uranus said: 9 (non ruck) players had CBAs today.
Surely that's an increase on our average under Goodwin?
Absolutely
Was just thinking about how fluid the midfield rotations were.
Rather than the standard starting mid model there's core mids in Kozz, Steele, Rivers and Windsor and a bunch of others who roll thru the middle, like Langford (who otherwise plays on the wing), Sparrow, Kolt and Lindsay.
Interesting mix of players, many of whom are big boys, and skill sets.
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Edited by binman
1 hour ago, bing181 said: Fritsch's 6 in the 2021 Granny don't count?
It felt wrong when I posted it - and it wasn't evwn an Ai error, I was repeating what they said on ABC post hame (but perhaps they meant key forwards or more likely first half).
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55 minutes ago, Return to Glory said: I'm desperate to know how he's looking Demonski3
With his eyes I'm assuming
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17 minutes ago, Brownie said: Congratulations to the AFL on finally developing the product into something that is just non-stop end to end scoring.
Fantastic for the advertisers.
I thought I'd like this style more than I do.
As others have said, it's a lot like basketball in some ways.
Geez I hope Freo don't blow this
As the great sage Flavor Flav said, don't believe the hype.
Scoring will drop soon enough as fatigue starts being more of a factor .
Teams are in their optimal shape atm (which would terrify Blues and bombers fans as both teams look miles off fitness wise) and can manage the huge amount of running the current style demands. As their fitness tails off, and coaches baulk at giving up huge scores, teams will slow the game down more often, fie exampleby the chip mark, and then go fast, method the lions use, and the Hawks and Pies both seem to be copying.
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55 minutes ago, BDA said: oscar mcdonald playing with Freo. totally forgot about that
Closing in on 100 AFL games (today is his 95th).
Love players that get the best out of themselves. Love Omac
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15 minutes ago, illbarto said: Or some classic American sitcom canned laughter?
Or the Benny Hill music
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20 hours ago, illbarto said: What about when a player kicks a behind? That's real ground breaking stuff there and an opportunity for the club. "Missed opportunity" by Hall and Oates could work.
I reckon they should play a song when the OPPOSITION kicks a point - perhaps Loser by Beck.
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1 hour ago, dees189227 said: Yep amazing when a coach persists with someone & backs them in
Baker was given every chance to cement a senior spot at the dees.
As evidence of that i don't recall a single post criticising the decision to delist him.
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14 minutes ago, Kev said: Great for Sharp to get an early look in.
I think he is our best crumber of the ball, from off the pack (reads it well), and will work hard to get front and centre.
And above all he is an aerobic beast with good wheels. Slow coaches need not apply under King methinks
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Edited by binman
4 minutes ago, Gator said: McDonald is competing with Lever, Petty and Turner, he's not competing with Howes.
Yep. No way you can have all three in the same side - partly because we'd be too tall down back but more significantly we'd aldo be too slow down back, which was a huge issue for us last season.
I cant see Turner coming out of our side, so i reckon in reality Tmac's competing with Petty and Lever.
I expected Howes to be selected. He's flexible in that he can play medium and tall. Makes good decsions, is a neat kick and has good wheels. If he maintains his preseason form he is a best 23 lock.
And i'm not surpised Tmac is out - unfortunately he's not quick enough.
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2 hours ago, Lil_red_fire_engine said: I don't like the music after every goal but I am conscious I am not the target demo and a bit of a traditionalist.
I'm not a fan either, though to be honest I dislike the volume ads and songs are played at the G way, way more than songs after a goal. Does my head in.
The issue I have is not so much having songs after goals as I understand the logic of making the game a fun event for families, it's the rationale for the decision.
Typical AFL making a decision supposedly to benefit fans without, one bothering to actually consult fans, and two not even bothering to tell fans on what basis they have concluded fans want this.
I mean where's the evidence this will make for a better experience, let alone increase attendance.
The AFL have been gloating about tecord breaking attendances for years. And songs are not played after goals at most games. Hard then to argue something needs fixing.
And give me a break it's for the kids - I doubt many kids are singing along with bloody Country Roads at the GABBA.
It's all the crusty retirees and the mums and dads(who bybthe are the ones who buy the tickets to games for their kids)
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58 minutes ago, hardtack said: Loved Toots & the Maytals ever since I first saw the film starring Jimmy Cliff, ‘The Harder They Come’, when they did Pressure Drop. Since then I’ve seen them a couple of times: once in London’s Hyde Park and then at the Phoenician Club in Sydney. They were such a fantastic band.
One of my favourite albums is a Toots album from 2004 of duets called True Love.
At the time I was still collecting CDS, almost exuslusivey from discount bins. I bought that CD (for $5) not really expecting much as late career duets of his old stuff seemed a bit naff.
But it's terrIfic, with some awesome duets, including with Bonnie Rait, Jeff Beck, Manu Chao and Terry Hall (went back to jb hi and bought a bunch more as gifts for friends).
It's mostly versions of old songs of his and reggae standards.
But my favourite track is an outlier, a duet with Willie Nelson of a Willie song - Still is still moving me. One of my all time favourite covers (I love good cover songs):
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2 minutes ago, layzie said: Apologies in advance for the lame statement but does anyone else think that Jack Steele looks exceptionally good in our colours?
I'd go as far as to say he's never dressed better/sharper/smarter in his life.
It's why i only wear red and blue
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8 minutes ago, Pennant St Dee said: So Culley and/or JVR to share back up ruck duties, considering Heath hasn’t been mentioned for club debut
Nor has Latrelle - and I'd be shocked if he's not selected.
That said can't see Heath being selected
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2 hours ago, Lil_red_fire_engine said: So using the unavailable lists from AFL.com In the mix article for the round we start the season with 10 teams having an equivalent size or longer list of unavailable players than us.
Granted we don't appear to have many returning shortly on ours and would much prefer to be the Pies with Howe a week away then only McInnes missing. However still not as bad as some to start the season and only two of those walk up starts for our best 23.Def an improvement on how we were travelling injury wise at Xmas.
We've been lucky in post Xmas break as I think I'm right to say that Kentfield and Jeffo were the only serious injuries (fritters was minor)
And I'm amazed that both Culley ad Mihocek are seemingly locks for round one and ready to roll.
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4 hours ago, DutchDemons said: Great episode guys, so comforting having you back.
Only gripe, what was that song at the end? Not a fan! Sounded like a Nickelback AI slop version of Come on Demons… god I hope not.
Haven't heard it - the intern must have put it on in post.
I'll talk to management (Andy)
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2 hours ago, monoccular said: Welcome back guys - we all have missed you.
Only halfway through the episode (is it episode 1 or episode 0, or maybe 0.5??)
OP (Opening Pod)
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Stats file 2026 season
in Melbourne Demons
Fantastic stuff wheelo.
You read my mind as knowing the CD pressure ratings are not readily available I was going to use AI to test my hypothesis that the pressure ratings were low accross all games (highlighting the weakness of AI LLMs it's likely no bots would be able to source that info as it's behind paywalls).
But reports of the death of pressure as the key indicator are premature.
Early days, and come the last third of the season - and in particular finals - it will once again be all about pressure.