Whispering_Jack

Incorrect.

Arrogant and stupid.

The last time I looked OX, your club had only won one premiership since 1958 so there's no need for the arrogance. The AFL organises the handouts and it also manufactures its own programme, not Eddie (well not officially anyway) which means we aren't getting any "assistance" at all from Collingwood. If you bothered to read the first post you'd also be aware that Melbourne isn't "racking up" losses as you allege either. Indeed, I think my figures are about right. Collingwood are claiming a profit in the millions, Melbourne about 100k so why does your team get almost as much monetary assistance from the AFL?

At least you make sense when you suggest that you could stop giving Collingwood blockbuster games and they would still lead the league in attendances. So let's stop giving them blockbuster games.

The easier draw is by no means "perceived". I've looked at your programme for next year and I'd gladly swap it with ours any day of the week, particularly from the point of view of its "easiness" but also in light of its capacity to draw sponsors an additional crowds. If you get the crowds anyway, you don't need the blockbuster games and the Friday night matches. But it's the programme that gives Collingwood such a charitable run. You could have kept Guy Richards as your first ruckman and had his grandmother roving to him and you probably would be a certainty to make the finals next year with what you've been given.

You mention interstate matches and I'll get to them in a moment but you forget other aspects of the programme. When was the last time you had to play Geelong at Skilled Stadium? You never play them there these days. In 2007, your only game v Geelong was an away game at the MCG! Given where you finished this year, you would expect to be playing at least one of last year's grand finalists twice. But no, you don't – you play Geelong and Port Adelaide once. How's that for easy?

You say "in the last 2 seasons we've won 7/9 interstate games" which is incorrect. This is your team's record in the last two years -

2006: the first six games were all played in Melbourne, and then you had these away games -

Round 7 - lost to WCE by 14 points

Round 12 - defeated Sydney by13 points

Round 18 - lost Adelaide by 4 points

Round 20 - defeated PA by 2 points

2007:

Round 2 - lost WCE by12 points

Round 6 - defeated Adelaide by 24 points

Round 9 - defeated Brisbane by 33 points

Round 12 - defeated Sydney by 19 points

Then you had nine games in Melbourne (eight in a row at the MCG) before your home final against Sydney and your ninth interstate game in 2 years in the semi final against WCE where you scraped home in extra time against a team that was decimated by injury and whose coach suffered brain fade and took off the wrong player at the wrong time. Guy Richards' grandmother would have starred in that game.

So contrary to what you say, your record interstate in home and away matches in the last 2 years is actually 5/8 but you seem to be blessed even on that score because 5/8 of those games interstate games have been the closer ones – i.e. that involve only the one hour flights to either Sydney or Adelaide. There's one 2 hour flight and, in the space of two seasons, only one five hour flight a year to Perth. This minimises the "week after factor" that afflicts many clubs the week after the flights across and back over the Nullarbor. And of course, you get the easy end of things in that regard again in 2008.

You know, I think you might be right. Looking at Collingwood's programme it's probably more of a 12 point free ride your club's getting from the programme. And if you're wondering why I call it a programme and not a fixture or a draw, it's because such things assume an element of fairness or at least randomness that would give the competition an element of integrity. There is no integrity in the AFL programme and at least Fonzie admits that – Collingwood's on a very good wicket not only for on field reasons but it gets an additional advantage of $2m a year in its assistance from the AFL on top of that easy programme.

Now the second part of Stevo's series on Melbourne's draft picks in the upcoming AFL National Draft -

THE YEAR OF DRAFTING DANGEROUSLY – PART TWO by Stevo

There's a name in the draft lists that fits the topic of my presentation on the national draft just nicely. The name is "Dangerfield" and it's a reference to Patrick Dangerfield, a brilliant 188cm midfielder who played nine games with the Geelong Falcons in 2007. He wants to be drafted to an AFL club, but says he won't play a game next year. Dangerfield has stipulated on his draft nomination that he wants to finish his VCE before taking on an AFL career. He is a super athlete and would have been a good chance to finish top 20 but some clubs might consider it a risk to use a high draft pick for a player who won't be on the track until 2009. We have seen other leading draft picks in the past who have sat out their first years after the draft with mixed success, Luke Ball and Xavier Ellis among them but while the player in question here is a quality young footballer and I don't question his motives, I have ruled him out of contention for Melbourne's second pick. Not that the Demons would want to pass on a player of his undoubted ability but there are plenty of others who are keen and eager to play and who should be available at number 14.

Selection Fourteen

At this stage I would expect my nominated candidates for pick four to be long gone and I would be hoping that another WA All Australian in David Myers, a brilliant running defender, would be still around. However, I suspect that's wishful thinking and the same goes for Brad Ebert, Scott Selwood and probably Tom Collier and Jarrad Grant who should all have been taken by then.

This will still leave a tantalising mix of players available including a few with the X factor and definitely something there for a club that wants to take risks and perhaps even recruit a little dangerously.

David Gourdis 24.03.89 192 cm 89 kg (Subiaco WA) – an athletic key forward who blitzed them at the draft camp. He's a strong mark and shapes up as the prototype modern day athletic tall forward although he needs to work a bit on his kicking.

Jack Grimes 11.05.89 187 76 (Northern Knights Vic Metro) – a true all rounder who can play anywhere with telling effect. Grimes has good size, great endurance, knows his way around the goals and has leadership quality.

Patrick McGinnity 18.02.89 183 80 (Claremont WA) – a real hard nut inside midfielder who won All Australian honours at the national carnival and impressed when he worked over Vic Metro superstar Trent Cotchin.

Tayte Pears 24.03.90 192 90 (East Perth WA) – a very quick defender who played centre half back in the national championships. Pears is strong in the air, can close down opposition forwards and also cause damage with his run out of defence.

Cyril Rioli 14.07.89 178 74 (Northern Territory Thunder) - take someone with the Rioli and Long bloodlines and you have a player with super skills and the ability to do the impossible. He has great speed and ball handling ability and was a sensation around goal kicking 7 in one game in the national carnival. There is a question mark over his endurance but he should adapt well to Victoria as he has done his schooling here for a number of years.

Patrick Vezpremi 01.07.89 181 83 (Northern Knights Vic Metro) – a 2006 All Australian when he was bottom aged but missed this year's championships with injury. Has a strong body, is classy, a great kick and a real talent. Kicked eight goals against the Gippsland Power in half a game during the finals.

Callan Ward 10.04.90 185 73 (Western Jets Vic Metro) – a bottom age emerging midfielder with classic disposal and a hard at it attitude. He has plenty of up side.

The verdict? This time last year I had Vezpremi as a shoe in for a top five selection in this year's draft. If around at number 14, he wouldn't necessarily be a steal but definitely a value selection. If he's gone at this stage, then I might be tempted to go in a different direction altogether and opt for Gourdis.

Selection Twenty-one

The popular view is that by the time you get to this stage of a draft, the talent starts to get a bit thinner on the ground but we are still dealing with the best two dozen youngsters in the country. Apart from anyone already mentioned above who might not have been selected by now, I think pick 21 will come from this disparate group which includes some real X factor candidates:-

Steven Browne 01.02.89.181 74 (West Perth WA) – a strong solid defender who made the transition to senior football in the WAFL during the season. Will possibly graduate to play midfield in the future.

Steven Gaertner 02.01.90 196 83 (Dandenong Stingrays Vic Metro) – a tall athlete who has pace and can take a mark. He’s the sort of player who might adapt to play in a number of positions and, as a bottom age player, has time to develop.

Levi Greenwood 19.02.89 181 91 (Pot Adelaide SA) - a tough little nut who has been likened to Geelong's Paul Chapman. He has played senior football in the SANFL and is highly regarded in some circles.

Addam Maric 19.04.90 179 80 (Calder Cannons Vic Metro) – a forward pocket specialist who is renowned for his accuracy in front of goal. Maric is a real impact player at under 18 level and is the epitome of the X factor player - a bit of a freak who has Daicos-like tricks in his bag.

Tony Notte (15.04.90) 194 70 (Swan Districts WA) – a key forward who looks lean and hungry. He has an ultra light frame but can take a mark and has lots of skill. It might however, be a long weight before he puts on some … weight.

Scott Simpson 19.10.89 194 91 (Dandenong Stingrays Vic Metro) - comes with gigantic wraps from his Under 18 coach and former Demon Graeme Yeats who calls him a "superstar". He has height, athleticism and determination - attributes that would please any club recruiting officer.

Robert Tarrant 25.04.89 196.90 (Bendigo Pioneers Vic Country) – a strong key forward who was overlooked last year but worked hard over the current season and produced some outstanding draft camp results.

There is a possibility is that a young ruckman of the calibre of Tom Bellchambers, Andrew Renton or Dawson Simpson might be looked at but I have my doubts on that score. As history has shown, some of these tall young ruck types are dangerous early selections. The Magpies found that out when they selected Guy Richards half a lifetime ago and waited until a month ago for their patience to run out.

The verdict? In the club's entire history, it has never had a Simpson playing in its senior team so it's about time. The one I have in mind is not Homer, he doesn't come from Springfield and he doesn't work in a nuclear power plant. He doesn't even have the initials "O.J" and his would not be a dangerous selection if still available at 21. It's not big 207cm tall Dawson Simpson but tall enough at 194 cm to be a key position prospect and just the right size to fill a need at Melbourne – Scott Simpson.

The rest?

I'm not game to have a crack. It's too dangerous!

Now the second part of Stevo's series on Melbourne's draft picks in the upcoming AFL National Draft -

THE YEAR OF DRAFTING DANGEROUSLY – PART TWO by Stevo

There's a name in the draft lists that fits the topic of my presentation on the national draft just nicely. The name is "Dangerfield" and it's a reference to Patrick Dangerfield, a brilliant 188cm midfielder who played nine games with the Geelong Falcons in 2007. He wants to be drafted to an AFL club, but says he won't play a game next year. Dangerfield has stipulated on his draft nomination that he wants to finish his VCE before taking on an AFL career. He is a super athlete and would have been a good chance to finish top 20 but some clubs might consider it a risk to use a high draft pick for a player who won't be on the track until 2009. We have seen other leading draft picks in the past who have sat out their first years after the draft with mixed success, Luke Ball and Xavier Ellis among them but while the player in question here is a quality young footballer and I don't question his motives, I have ruled him out of contention for Melbourne's second pick. Not that the Demons would want to pass on a player of his undoubted ability but there are plenty of others who are keen and eager to play and who should be available at number 14.

Selection Fourteen

At this stage I would expect my nominated candidates for pick four to be long gone and I would be hoping that another WA All Australian in David Myers, a brilliant running defender, would be still around. However, I suspect that's wishful thinking and the same goes for Brad Ebert, Scott Selwood and probably Tom Collier and Jarrad Grant who should all have been taken by then.

This will still leave a tantalising mix of players available including a few with the X factor and definitely something there for a club that wants to take risks and perhaps even recruit a little dangerously.

David Gourdis 24.03.89 192 cm 89 kg (Subiaco WA) – an athletic key forward who blitzed them at the draft camp. He's a strong mark and shapes up as the prototype modern day athletic tall forward although he needs to work a bit on his kicking.

Jack Grimes 11.05.89 187 76 (Northern Knights Vic Metro) – a true all rounder who can play anywhere with telling effect. Grimes has good size, great endurance, knows his way around the goals and has leadership quality.

Patrick McGinnity 18.02.89 183 80 (Claremont WA) – a real hard nut inside midfielder who won All Australian honours at the national carnival and impressed when he worked over Vic Metro superstar Trent Cotchin.

Tayte Pears 24.03.90 192 90 (East Perth WA) – a very quick defender who played centre half back in the national championships. Pears is strong in the air, can close down opposition forwards and also cause damage with his run out of defence.

Cyril Rioli 14.07.89 178 74 (Northern Territory Thunder) - take someone with the Rioli and Long bloodlines and you have a player with super skills and the ability to do the impossible. He has great speed and ball handling ability and was a sensation around goal kicking 7 in one game in the national carnival. There is a question mark over his endurance but he should adapt well to Victoria as he has done his schooling here for a number of years.

Patrick Vezpremi 01.07.89 181 83 (Northern Knights Vic Metro) – a 2006 All Australian when he was bottom aged but missed this year's championships with injury. Has a strong body, is classy, a great kick and a real talent. Kicked eight goals against the Gippsland Power in half a game during the finals.

Callan Ward 10.04.90 185 73 (Western Jets Vic Metro) – a bottom age emerging midfielder with classic disposal and a hard at it attitude. He has plenty of up side.

The verdict? This time last year I had Vezpremi as a shoe in for a top five selection in this year's draft. If around at number 14, he wouldn't necessarily be a steal but definitely a value selection. If he's gone at this stage, then I might be tempted to go in a different direction altogether and opt for Gourdis.

Selection Twenty-one

The popular view is that by the time you get to this stage of a draft, the talent starts to get a bit thinner on the ground but we are still dealing with the best two dozen youngsters in the country. Apart from anyone already mentioned above who might not have been selected by now, I think pick 21 will come from this disparate group which includes some real X factor candidates:-

Steven Browne 01.02.89.181 74 (West Perth WA) – a strong solid defender who made the transition to senior football in the WAFL during the season. Will possibly graduate to play midfield in the future.

Steven Gaertner 02.01.90 196 83 (Dandenong Stingrays Vic Metro) – a tall athlete who has pace and can take a mark. He’s the sort of player who might adapt to play in a number of positions and, as a bottom age player, has time to develop.

Levi Greenwood 19.02.89 181 91 (Pot Adelaide SA) - a tough little nut who has been likened to Geelong's Paul Chapman. He has played senior football in the SANFL and is highly regarded in some circles.

Addam Maric 19.04.90 179 80 (Calder Cannons Vic Metro) – a forward pocket specialist who is renowned for his accuracy in front of goal. Maric is a real impact player at under 18 level and is the epitome of the X factor player - a bit of a freak who has Daicos-like tricks in his bag.

Tony Notte (15.04.90) 194 70 (Swan Districts WA) – a key forward who looks lean and hungry. He has an ultra light frame but can take a mark and has lots of skill. It might however, be a long weight before he puts on some … weight.

Scott Simpson 19.10.89 194 91 (Dandenong Stingrays Vic Metro) - comes with gigantic wraps from his Under 18 coach and former Demon Graeme Yeats who calls him a "superstar". He has height, athleticism and determination - attributes that would please any club recruiting officer.

Robert Tarrant 25.04.89 196.90 (Bendigo Pioneers Vic Country) – a strong key forward who was overlooked last year but worked hard over the current season and produced some outstanding draft camp results.

There is a possibility is that a young ruckman of the calibre of Tom Bellchambers, Andrew Renton or Dawson Simpson might be looked at but I have my doubts on that score. As history has shown, some of these tall young ruck types are dangerous early selections. The Magpies found that out when they selected Guy Richards half a lifetime ago and waited until a month ago for their patience to run out.

The verdict? In the club's entire history, it has never had a Simpson playing in its senior team so it's about time. The one I have in mind is not Homer, he doesn't come from Springfield and he doesn't work in a nuclear power plant. He doesn't even have the initials "O.J" and his would not be a dangerous selection if still available at 21. It's not big 207cm tall Dawson Simpson but tall enough at 194 cm to be a key position prospect and just the right size to fill a need at Melbourne – Scott Simpson.

The rest?

I'm not game to have a crack. It's too dangerous!

These are the 2006 figures. I got these second hand, but these figures are available in the public domain. You only need to look at the AFL financial reports.

With the ASD, you can see that for 2006, we're still well within the vicinity of St Kilda, Collingwood, Sydney and Richmond, and are under Carlton, North and WB. If you remove the $1m we get, we then get less money in total from the AFL than Carlton, Collingwood, Essendon, Hawthorn, Kangas, Richmond, St Kilda, Sydney and WB.

These figures are high, and the extra $1m we get is in actual fact a fairly insignificant revenue in the total scheme of what everyone else gets from the AFL. As I said, if you're going to take away our $1m from your considerations, you need to take away the other $5m we get, as well as Collingwood's $6.4m, Carlton's $7mil and so on.

I doubt this year's figures will paint much of a different story. I guess we'll see when the numbers become public domain.

Based on these figures Collingwood gets the most "special assistance" from the AFL. The Pies are getting marginally less than us yet annually, they receive the best fixture of any Victorian club by a country mile, travel less interstate, have more MCG games (this year they had 8 in a row), plenty of Friday night games and special fixtures and they get an easier draw (estimated somewhere as a bonus 8 premiership points). This "special assistance" would probably be worth at least a couple of million every year if you could put a figure on it!

'Whispering_Jack' or 'Stevo', how's the second installment of this gold coming along?

One of the best posts I've seen this year.

Many thanks.

Jono.

Should be up tonight or tomorrow. It's interesting!

I imagine there'd be a couple of people squirming uneasily over their cornflakes this morning. Good to see that at least Trevor Grant isn't afraid to fire some shots across the bow of the AFL.

http://www.heraldsun.news.com.au/footy/com...5E19742,00.html

Nor is Tim Lane worried about upsetting the Pratt camp even though he supports the Blues - RULES DIFFER FOR PRATT. He puts a very powerful case.

Demonland presents the views of "Stevo" who knows the ins and outs of the Under 18 TAC Cup scene from an insider's point of view. He was there at all of the National Under 18 championship games played in Melbourne this winter. These are his views on the melbournefc's 2007 draft prospects as told to Whispering Jack...

THE YEAR OF DRAFTING DANGEROUSLY – PART ONE by Stevo

The nature of the AFL draft has changed significantly since its early days. The art of talent identification has become more sophisticated and the public interest has grown particularly with the development of information technology. In the month before the draft you will read any number of expert opinions and phantom drafts in the newspapers and on the internet, some of which are educated, intelligent and informed and others by people who are clueless.

I write this knowing that in presenting my views on the 2007 NAB AFL Draft I might also attract the "clueless" label but, having been involved at the grass roots level, I can at least say that I've seen most (but not all) of the draft prospects with my own eyes.

I want to look at the draft a little differently to the others. I am more focussed on viewing it from a Melbourne supporter's viewpoint. The Demons have just gone through a difficult year in which they fell unexpectedly from top four prospect to a disappointing 14th. They have overhauled their coaching regime and the new coach Dean Bailey has indicated that the team will be regenerated through its 23 and under age group and that drafting young talent is a priority. The club is not likely to take any major risks with its recruiting.

Melbourne has six "live" selections in the November 24 Draft – picks 4, 14, 21, 52, 64 and 70 but should pass on the last selection to leave room for a pick in the December Pre Season Draft (number 3). As far as 52 and 64 are concerned, it's difficult to even hazard a guess as to who they might be given that at this level you are deep in the realm of speculation where anything can happen. For that reason, I will mainly concentrate on the first three selections and look at the players the Demons might take at numbers 4, 14 and 21.

Firstly, some observations about this draft. I think it may well end up being remembered for the same reasons as this year's NAB AFL Under-18 Championships in June/July - by the dominance of Western Australia over the other states. The Sandgropers opened with an impressive 47-point win over Vic Metro at Subiaco Oval, followed that up by defeating Vic Country by 43 points and then demolished South Australia at Casey Fields, Cranbourne by 77 points to comprehensively take out the championship. Eight of their kids made All Australian although two are not eligible for the draft because of their age. That's what I call "dominance"!

In a year when the "go home" factor has been so famously highlighted by Chris Judd’s shock decision to return home from Perth, the large number of talented and exciting players from WA leads me to look at this as the "Year of Drafting Dangerously". The WA clubs would be weighing up whether or not to take fancied players from the other states ahead of their own home grown talent while the Victorians and others would be wondering about the intentions of some of those kids they might have to lure away from Perth. The fact that two of the top three most highly regarded draftees come from Victoria might sound a contradiction but it makes the whole scenario all the more interesting.

The other aspect that that can turn an AFL draft into a dangerous pastime for recruiters is the fact that there are some impressive tall options around the place but these players are often difficult to gauge when they play at junior level. When they step up to playing with men they can be hit or very much miss. The advantages of getting a "hit" can be enormous but you can also end up with egg on your face if the player turns out to be a dud at AFL level.

That said, it's interesting to note the commonly held view is that the top pick in this draft will be 199cm tall ruckman/forward Matthew Kreuzer (Northern Knights Vic Metro) who is virtually a given at first pick for Carlton. I'm not even convinced he's the best player in this draft pool, but time will tell on that score. Big men take their time and it would be a mistake for the Blues to think he is going to be an immediate senior selection at AFL level but he's the outstanding tall man on TAC Cup form and they won't pass on him. Cale Morton (Claremont WA) and Trent Cotchin (Northern Knights Vic Metro) are favoured to fill the rest of the top three picks before Melbourne gets its turn at selection four. Their selections are virtually set in stone although not necessarily in that order. Since there still remains some debate about the selections, I will include them as possibles in the unlikely event of one of them falling to pick four.

One interesting quirk of the draft order is that the West Coast Eagles precede every one of Melbourne's early draft picks. With so much focus on acquiring top midfield talent early in the draft and with the Eagles' stocks in this area suddenly depleted by the loss of Judd and Ben Cousins, they could well frustrate the Demons' intentions by getting in first on players who the Dees might also have in their sights. That however, is the way of the draft.

Selection Four

There are a few contenders for this selection. Apart from Morton and Cotchin, they are West Australian midfielders Chris Masten and Rhys Palmer (who I put marginally ahead of SA’s Brad Ebert), key position players Lachlan Henderson and Alex Rance and ruckman Ben McEvoy.

Trent Cotchin 07.04.89 184 cm 81 kg (Northern Knights Vic Metro) – a class act but up till now has not done enough when he's been on the really big stage. His ball handling, disposal and decision-making are all excellent and he is reasonably quick but I regard him more of a forward flanker at this stage. He was heavily tagged in the Under 18 championships and was beaten hands down in the WA game by Patrick McGinnity who made All Australian. The mail from out west however, is that the Eagles will take him if the Tigers don’t select him with their second choice.

Lachlan Henderson 14.12.89 196 90 (Geelong Falcons Vic Country) – this kid may well be a risk worth taking but it would certainly be a dangerous risk with a pick as high as number 4. He can play key forward or key back and is very mobile for his height of 196 cm. He has a great pair of hands, is a very good kick and what more can you say but for the fact that he spent most of 2007 on the injury list with a broken leg.

Ben McEvoy 11.07.89 199 90 (Murray Bushrangers Vic Country) – can play ruck and key forward where he was used in the TAC Cup grand final without showing out. Given that Melbourne traded a draft selection to get John Meesen from the Crows I think it highly unlikely that it would use this or any of its early picks for another ruckman although, if he were still available at 14, he might come under consideration.

Chris Masten 02.05.89 179 78 (East Fremantle WA) – the best player available. A classic midfielder who is highly motivated, reasonably quick and has great endurance. He played senior football with WAFL club East Fremantle for most of the year and managed to hold his own although he is reportedly struggling currently with a mild case of osteitis pubis. The Eagles would be tossing up whether or not to take him ahead of Cotchin and the decision will be an agonising one. I believe they are leaning towards taking the Victorian.

Cale Morton 18.01.90 192 75 (Claremont WA) – a true utility who can play anywhere and is full of skill and class. In time, he would make an excellent replacement at Melbourne for Travis Johnstone but I suspect that the Demons are out of the equation and he will join his brother Mitch and be taken at 2 by Richmond.

Rhys Palmer 13.02.89 181 76 (East Fremantle WA) – the Demons will be pondering on whether to take Masten or Palmer when it comes to making their decision. Season 2007 was a red bullet year for this genuine midfield gun and he emphatically overtook many of his peers. His National Under 18 Championship form was outstanding as was his game at senior level in the WAFL where he already has a five-goal haul to his name. Masten is the hard at it midfielder while Palmer is the brilliant finisher who will make his mark at AFL level immediately. Which would you choose?

Alex Rance 19.10.89 194 87 (Swan Districts WA) – a skilful tall defender with the right pedigree for AFL football (his father captained the Eagles in their early days) and was impressive in his only senior WAFL game. Said to be the best big key defender in the draft by a country mile and the Demons do need big key defenders. A dasher who the judges say is a ready-made AFL player.

The verdict? Melbourne coach Dean Bailey has gone on record as saying that the drafts will be the catalyst for a swift Demon turnaround. Three selections in the first 21 picks will give the team scope and flexibility to develop greater depth and balance to his list of players. The club will kick the day off with a real beauty in Masten who will get the nod just ahead of Palmer. For the record, I had Masten well ahead of Morton, Cotchin and Palmer before the National Under 18 Championships and I have not veered from this view although Palmer's improvement was a real surprise to me. On that basis, I think there should be no danger at all with this selection apart from the "go home" factor. The Demons will have to deal with that one by making the youngster feel at home in his new environment.

Here’s a film clip from Fox News of the young man himself – CHRIS MASTEN

In Part Two, Stevo looks at Picks 14 and 21 and has a bit of a go at the rest of our selections.

Demonland presents the views of "Stevo" who knows the ins and outs of the Under 18 TAC Cup scene from an insider's point of view. He was there at all of the National Under 18 championship games played in Melbourne this winter. These are his views on the melbournefc's 2007 draft prospects as told to Whispering Jack...

THE YEAR OF DRAFTING DANGEROUSLY – PART ONE by Stevo

The nature of the AFL draft has changed significantly since its early days. The art of talent identification has become more sophisticated and the public interest has grown particularly with the development of information technology. In the month before the draft you will read any number of expert opinions and phantom drafts in the newspapers and on the internet, some of which are educated, intelligent and informed and others by people who are clueless.

I write this knowing that in presenting my views on the 2007 NAB AFL Draft I might also attract the "clueless" label but, having been involved at the grass roots level, I can at least say that I've seen most (but not all) of the draft prospects with my own eyes.

I want to look at the draft a little differently to the others. I am more focussed on viewing it from a Melbourne supporter's viewpoint. The Demons have just gone through a difficult year in which they fell unexpectedly from top four prospect to a disappointing 14th. They have overhauled their coaching regime and the new coach Dean Bailey has indicated that the team will be regenerated through its 23 and under age group and that drafting young talent is a priority. The club is not likely to take any major risks with its recruiting.

Melbourne has six "live" selections in the November 24 Draft – picks 4, 14, 21, 52, 64 and 70 but should pass on the last selection to leave room for a pick in the December Pre Season Draft (number 3). As far as 52 and 64 are concerned, it's difficult to even hazard a guess as to who they might be given that at this level you are deep in the realm of speculation where anything can happen. For that reason, I will mainly concentrate on the first three selections and look at the players the Demons might take at numbers 4, 14 and 21.

Firstly, some observations about this draft. I think it may well end up being remembered for the same reasons as this year's NAB AFL Under-18 Championships in June/July - by the dominance of Western Australia over the other states. The Sandgropers opened with an impressive 47-point win over Vic Metro at Subiaco Oval, followed that up by defeating Vic Country by 43 points and then demolished South Australia at Casey Fields, Cranbourne by 77 points to comprehensively take out the championship. Eight of their kids made All Australian although two are not eligible for the draft because of their age. That's what I call "dominance"!

In a year when the "go home" factor has been so famously highlighted by Chris Judd’s shock decision to return home from Perth, the large number of talented and exciting players from WA leads me to look at this as the "Year of Drafting Dangerously". The WA clubs would be weighing up whether or not to take fancied players from the other states ahead of their own home grown talent while the Victorians and others would be wondering about the intentions of some of those kids they might have to lure away from Perth. The fact that two of the top three most highly regarded draftees come from Victoria might sound a contradiction but it makes the whole scenario all the more interesting.

The other aspect that that can turn an AFL draft into a dangerous pastime for recruiters is the fact that there are some impressive tall options around the place but these players are often difficult to gauge when they play at junior level. When they step up to playing with men they can be hit or very much miss. The advantages of getting a "hit" can be enormous but you can also end up with egg on your face if the player turns out to be a dud at AFL level.

That said, it's interesting to note the commonly held view is that the top pick in this draft will be 199cm tall ruckman/forward Matthew Kreuzer (Northern Knights Vic Metro) who is virtually a given at first pick for Carlton. I'm not even convinced he's the best player in this draft pool, but time will tell on that score. Big men take their time and it would be a mistake for the Blues to think he is going to be an immediate senior selection at AFL level but he's the outstanding tall man on TAC Cup form and they won't pass on him. Cale Morton (Claremont WA) and Trent Cotchin (Northern Knights Vic Metro) are favoured to fill the rest of the top three picks before Melbourne gets its turn at selection four. Their selections are virtually set in stone although not necessarily in that order. Since there still remains some debate about the selections, I will include them as possibles in the unlikely event of one of them falling to pick four.

One interesting quirk of the draft order is that the West Coast Eagles precede every one of Melbourne's early draft picks. With so much focus on acquiring top midfield talent early in the draft and with the Eagles' stocks in this area suddenly depleted by the loss of Judd and Ben Cousins, they could well frustrate the Demons' intentions by getting in first on players who the Dees might also have in their sights. That however, is the way of the draft.

Selection Four

There are a few contenders for this selection. Apart from Morton and Cotchin, they are West Australian midfielders Chris Masten and Rhys Palmer (who I put marginally ahead of SA’s Brad Ebert), key position players Lachlan Henderson and Alex Rance and ruckman Ben McEvoy.

Trent Cotchin 07.04.89 184 cm 81 kg (Northern Knights Vic Metro) – a class act but up till now has not done enough when he's been on the really big stage. His ball handling, disposal and decision-making are all excellent and he is reasonably quick but I regard him more of a forward flanker at this stage. He was heavily tagged in the Under 18 championships and was beaten hands down in the WA game by Patrick McGinnity who made All Australian. The mail from out west however, is that the Eagles will take him if the Tigers don’t select him with their second choice.

Lachlan Henderson 14.12.89 196 90 (Geelong Falcons Vic Country) – this kid may well be a risk worth taking but it would certainly be a dangerous risk with a pick as high as number 4. He can play key forward or key back and is very mobile for his height of 196 cm. He has a great pair of hands, is a very good kick and what more can you say but for the fact that he spent most of 2007 on the injury list with a broken leg.

Ben McEvoy 11.07.89 199 90 (Murray Bushrangers Vic Country) – can play ruck and key forward where he was used in the TAC Cup grand final without showing out. Given that Melbourne traded a draft selection to get John Meesen from the Crows I think it highly unlikely that it would use this or any of its early picks for another ruckman although, if he were still available at 14, he might come under consideration.

Chris Masten 02.05.89 179 78 (East Fremantle WA) – the best player available. A classic midfielder who is highly motivated, reasonably quick and has great endurance. He played senior football with WAFL club East Fremantle for most of the year and managed to hold his own although he is reportedly struggling currently with a mild case of osteitis pubis. The Eagles would be tossing up whether or not to take him ahead of Cotchin and the decision will be an agonising one. I believe they are leaning towards taking the Victorian.

Cale Morton 18.01.90 192 75 (Claremont WA) – a true utility who can play anywhere and is full of skill and class. In time, he would make an excellent replacement at Melbourne for Travis Johnstone but I suspect that the Demons are out of the equation and he will join his brother Mitch and be taken at 2 by Richmond.

Rhys Palmer 13.02.89 181 76 (East Fremantle WA) – the Demons will be pondering on whether to take Masten or Palmer when it comes to making their decision. Season 2007 was a red bullet year for this genuine midfield gun and he emphatically overtook many of his peers. His National Under 18 Championship form was outstanding as was his game at senior level in the WAFL where he already has a five-goal haul to his name. Masten is the hard at it midfielder while Palmer is the brilliant finisher who will make his mark at AFL level immediately. Which would you choose?

Alex Rance 19.10.89 194 87 (Swan Districts WA) – a skilful tall defender with the right pedigree for AFL football (his father captained the Eagles in their early days) and was impressive in his only senior WAFL game. Said to be the best big key defender in the draft by a country mile and the Demons do need big key defenders. A dasher who the judges say is a ready-made AFL player.

The verdict? Melbourne coach Dean Bailey has gone on record as saying that the drafts will be the catalyst for a swift Demon turnaround. Three selections in the first 21 picks will give the team scope and flexibility to develop greater depth and balance to his list of players. The club will kick the day off with a real beauty in Masten who will get the nod just ahead of Palmer. For the record, I had Masten well ahead of Morton, Cotchin and Palmer before the National Under 18 Championships and I have not veered from this view although Palmer's improvement was a real surprise to me. On that basis, I think there should be no danger at all with this selection apart from the "go home" factor. The Demons will have to deal with that one by making the youngster feel at home in his new environment.

Here’s a film clip from Fox News of the young man himself – CHRIS MASTEN

In Part Two, Stevo looks at Picks 14 and 21 and has a bit of a go at the rest of our selections.

The AFL is a laughing stock - but that's what happens when you put success ahead of integrity.

If putting success ahead of integrity is the AFL's stock in trade then what can one say about this ploy?

BLUES PLAN TO SIDESTEP GAMING REGULATIONS TO KEEP PRATT AT HELM

It seems to me that everything I hear about about Caaarton lately is about neatly sidestepping rules and regulations whether it be priority pick rules, the salary cap, signing up Irish kids at 16 and the good old fashioned gaming regulations but just as they got whacked over the head with their salary cap breaches, their day of reckoning will come.

Meanwhile, if a 30 or so year old dumb brat can be brought before the AFL for bringing the game into disrepute because he's sick and on drugs (and I make no excuses for him at all) then surely tanking games to gain priority picks means bringing the game into disrepute big time?

Oh yes of course, Mr. Fonzarelli says no club ever tanks a game for that purpose.

well put sire

first thing that popped into my little vacuum when announced that AFL was after him was >> can they? . He isnt contracted to any team so what power do they stil have to act on him ?

Pardon my cynicism but I knew there had to be a reason why the Eagles haven't delisted Cousins just yet. The only way the AFL could charge Cousins and belatedly make an example out of him was if he remained an AFL listed player.

I was at the same school as the Kangaroos major shareholder Peter de Rauch. His father was the PE teacher and he was as tough and as hard a bastard as they come. We were subjected to such torture in our first PE class that every muscle in my body aches even today when I merely think about it. If the son is as tough as his old man I reckon he will make a good fist of staring down the AFL powerbrokers but I reckon he might be fighting a losing battle.

Just announced on Sports Tonight!

One should not draw too many unnecessary conclusions from that. Firstly, he would have to satisy the coach (and probably himself) that he has the necessary desire and hunger to revive his career and secondly, he would have to be picked by us in the PSD (assuming he doesn't nominate himself in the national draft). We have third choice so there are two other clubs ahead of us in the order of selection.

"Sack the coach."

you are sounding like one of those footy forum know-it-alls, nasher... <_<

pull both of your tasweigan heads in...

I have to agree. The coach deserved the sack. He shouldn't have allowed the trainers to run and carry the drinks out to the players.

Yeah If Sylvia was up with them...

Dear Diablo and Coxy,

That was great work but as your coaches Redleg and I would prefer to see you on the other side of the fence training your butts off in anticipation of our campaign to win back the Big Carl trophy?

Cheers,

WJ

In that case if you can talk Don Argus and his board into wearing the red and blue, you might witness a premiership flags in the near future.

I've heard Andrew Demetrious speak at a football breakfast. He's more interested in the commercial aspects of the fixture than in fairness. Full stop.

As long as that mentality rules the competition, we have to get used to it and prepare our club to play according to those rules.

I know this is fairly old news but imagine if we got the third pick?

http://www.foxsports.com.au/story/0,8659,2...3-23211,00.html

Heaven help us if they take away draft picks for that sort of activity - there'll be no draft at all soon.

Thats the problem WJ I want to enjoy a sport not a business. If it was the latter I would sit in the gallery at the Stock Exchange and cheer for BHP.

In that case if you can talk Don Argus and his board into wearing the red and blue, you might witness a premiership flags in the near future.

The AFL wants to stop drugs in football because it is cheating. Hear hear. But then they base the whole competition on cheating. I have had enough of the piss weak platitudes that we don't have enough members or supporters. That is bullshit.

We are the oldest club in this competition and have won plenty of premierships unlike some others and we have the name of the capital city in the state where the AFL originated. We are 1/16th of the clubs that give the AFL $780Million from TV rights plus plenty more. How in hell can a competition be based on a rigged draw. This is crap. Unless the AFL do a multi year draw where the teams play each other equally then the AFL brings shame to the game. To base the draw on attendances or supporter numbers is a joke. Why not start China half way up the track in the Olympics because they have the most fans. Give Manchester United 3 goals start every game because they are the most popular, etc, etc. The draw is an absolute joke the way it stands and the AFL admits it is fixed and rigged to cater for any number of factors except one " fairness". How can a Premiership mean anything in a fixed competition?

The AFL season should not be a "handicap" where some sides have a clear advantage. To regain any credibility a multi year draw must be started so that over a period every team plays each other fairly. TV ratings are not an excuse and the TV stations will fit in with a properly run competition. The handicapping of clubs commercial opportunities is also a disgrace and the equalisation grant moreso. We will end up like the WWF wrestling, a fake which is a great TV winner but as the whole world knows a complete joke. Enough is enough. I am going to have a valium.

The problem with your analysis is that football is no longer a game or a sport - it's a business and in business, he who has the most money wins.

I never worry about the fixture. If we're a top four side we'll beat enough teams to be a contender. As far as I'm concerned the fixture is favourable enough for us to make it if we're good enough so let's not waste our time, effort and energy on issues beyond our control.

Ening his career at the Port Adelaide Magpies in the SANFL - http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0...7-21543,00.html

Could this happen? Carlton is seriously looking at Cotchin as its pick. Ratten was quoted as saying they are divided 2/2 on Kreuzer/Cotchin. There is the view that some highly regarded junior ruckmen don't make it in the AFL. If Cotchin goes 1 and Morton 2 would the Eagles take Kreuzer or maybe a midfielder like Palmer/Masten who may go straight into the side and replace Cousins/Judd. If this scenario unfolds we will have Kreuzer available at 4. Might be pie in the sky but who knows.

I think you and I might have been standing a little too long in the sun at Glenferrie Oval last Sunday.

Tried to take a photo, cramped and fell over...

Blisters have shown no improvement thus far, today will be spent on the couch!

Just wanted to say it was a pleasure coaching the team. Every member worked his butt off for the colours and I'm really proud of you and the terrific sporting spirit in which the game was played. Thanks to Rollo and melbournefc and to everyone who helped out and gave their support including Redleg, imtoohot's father, GOTO, Tim, David and marfa and the others whose names I didn't quite catch. I'm sure everyone slept well last night after the experience.

It's been a while since I've coached and I can't remember doing it in 31 degree heat but we got a real appreciation of what must be involved in rotations because we tried to keep them coming as regularly as possible to ensure we'd have fresh legs at the end of the game. Unfortunately, our timing was a bit off because we had it all meticulously planned for a 20 minute final quarter and they kicked the winning goal at the 24 minute mark. That's football, I guess!

The Martin Heppell medal for our BOG went to imtoohot and I'd particularly like to commend the half a dozen or so players who tagged # 15. I think we managed to blunt his influence reasonably well after the first quarter.

We now have an enormous challenge to regain the Big Carl Cup and to sing it's a Grand Old Flag at the end of the game.

Hopefully, someone can get on to the Saintsational site to thank them for the game and congratulate them again formally on their win and for providing the four blokes who helped us out. They were great!

Lads,

There's only two days to go and I can feel the excitement building up to a crescendo as the game nears.

I've heard on the grapevine that most of you are following my training advice and not only that, but you're champing at the bit at the prospect of taking the field on Sunday against our traditional enemy.

That Big Carl Cup means a lot to me and it should mean a lot to all of you. My assistant, Redleg, was actually team manager for the great man when he coached the Demons in 1979 and he has some great stories to tell about his experience in the role (but please don't even think of mentioning the game v Fitzroy that year to him).

Anyway, I want to thank you guys for maintaining the discipline in our quest to retain the Big Carl. It's really important to me as the coach to know that you're totally dedicated to the cause and that you've made such massive sacrifices in terms of your lifestyle over the past weeks in order to be cherry ripe for this game.

As a coach I really have to feel for blokes like Worsfold who must be filled with fear and trepidation whenever they turn on the telly to watch the news knowing that one of their own players are going to be in the headlines.

No such problems with me.

You blokes have got your heads screwed on properly. You're a coaches dream and I'm sure you'll all remember those important 1% ers that help to win games: basic things like "don't forget the sunscreen, the mouthguards and the water bottles!"

Keep it up and I'll see you on Sunday when we'll be going for the ride of our lives.

Sincerely,

Your coach.

BTW, do any of you have tattoos on your midriffs?

hahahaha absolute gold Y_M!!! i wish your predictions came true more often, if only for the laugh i'd get...

Have to agree. I've really missed Chilliboy this year but Y_M has stepped nicely into the void.

Just wondering if you're able to predict the number he'll be wearing when he joins the club?

still a long way to go yze, before he ends up at the MFC...

I've just finished reading the first part of the Dean Bailey interview on melbournefc.com.au and I somehow can't imagine Cousins fitting into the ethos that the club is trying to establish. He won't get to within a light year of the MCG even if he remains a person registered to play in the AFL in the future.