Jjrogan

6 minutes ago, binman said:

I'm terrible at maths. A question for anyone who is not.

We gained 7.6%.

How much percentage would we have gained if we win that match 113 to 70.

We'd be on 124.6. So 6.1. 

I reckon we look back and pin point this as the turning point in our forward line structure. Turner can play, he leads up, finds separation, has sticky hands and is faster than JVR or Petty (or so it appears).   Real prospect. 

1 hour ago, dees189227 said:

Well someone is going to have to step up & kick our goals. At least Brown leads up to mark the ball. 

Hopefully van rooyen can clunk them like he did last year

Sometimes I feel like Bailey Fritsch doesn't exist either.

Yet again, Port 2nd on the ladder.  April is the cruelest month. 

2 minutes ago, Swooper1987 said:

Feeling a bit for Yze.  Taranto and Ross on top of the litany of other injuries. 

I'll feel more sorry for us if we don't win by 6 goals+. They'll have half a VFL side out there.  

Credit where credit is due. Brisvegas played a fantastic game across the park.  Tackle count was 82 to 53 to them. If there was a stat for 'effective tackles ' I'd suggest it would have been even more lopsided.  And how many smothers or a intercepting hand did they get in.    I don't think many teams (let alone them again) could have that sort of kicking efficiency and pressure around the ball indefinitely.

Our forward line needs to work out what sort of forward line it wants to be.  Is it a kick it to advantage and have our keys read the drop zone with crumbers.  Or it is a lead up and honour the short kick. Right now it's in between and means even 3 on 1s and 4 on 2s become a [censored] shoot with players not on the same page. 

3 hours ago, Axis of Bob said:

I didn’t say it can’t affect things, I said it is not important. This was especially so in a Melbourne context where it had no discernible effect on us last year. That was the whole point of the trend/noise discussion - umpiring variability can affect things in the very short term but, overall, it has such little impact that it’s barely worth thinking about. Certainly not the obsession that seems to be in this thread.

As for the metaphor, it is to help people understand what is being spoken about. The point had originally been made with noise and trend but this way was more inclusive for those who may not have understood the concept. As a recovering teacher, I usually prefer to help people access new concepts. If you already understood it then you didn’t need the help.

It’s also more fun.

I'm with you mate.  It's tiresome after a point.  It's a global phenomenon. 

It's pervasive through basketball, baseball, soccer, NFL, NRL, Cricket. Keep going.  You're telling me that every sport in the world the officiating is getting worse and worse and worse?  This is despite the evidence that the percentage of correct decisions is close to all time highs. 

Maybe all the actual data is wrong and the fan's human eye and biases are right.  My theory is that being 2024 we expect perfection and have simply got less tolerant of mistakes.

Every single supporter base would say their team get the rough end of the stick for umpire decisions (it's when and where you get them!) which is clearly impossible. Some days you're the bug some days you're the windshield.  

13 hours ago, Little Goffy said:

Clayton Oliver closing in on 5,000 disposals (current 4838). Going at >50% contested, too.

I suspected that Christian Petracca was closing in on the all-time record for score involvements but then I had a dig around and found that 'they' actually didn't record the stat systematically until  exactly when Petracca was drafted. It is basically his personal statistic and everyone else is just visiting. Sorry, Gary.

Oooh, fun thing I just discovered - Jack Viney got his 1000th clearance just last week!

And Gawn is right on the cusp of a major milestone - his 1st bounce in AFL! Be ready, it could happen at any moment.

There was a stat mentioned by Joe M that Trac had 100 more forward disposals than the next player last year and already leading this year. The ones where you actually have someone playing on you.  Elite midfielders have between 600 and 700 possessions a year, so this must off the charts from a standard deviation perspective. He is the best and most consistent player in the AFL imo. 

33 minutes ago, adonski said:

Crows selling the farm for Petty while they have an average midfield would be crazy stuff 

Future first and an Adelaide death ride coming up. 

Port is one of the few teams that rely on their top 3 midfielders for inside 50s more than us.  And they bat deep.  Rozee is good uncontested so we have to have someone responsible for him from stoppages.  Viney for mine. Wines and Drew I think can be nullified. But Butters, well good luck. Guy has gone from 'potential' to mini Petracca/Oliver clone in 25 games.  Egads.

Said it before, but what elevates us from serious contender to God mode is Trac's kicking.  He just gets so many great opportunities to convert possessions into scores.  If he hits targets inside 50 and around the ground, it's worth 3-5 goals. Absolute weapon. 

7 minutes ago, Roost it far said:

Your knee can feel quite ok until you try and turn, his run through didn’t feel good clearly. He’s done it twice and it was innocuous last time. 

ACLs in most cases are determined on the spot by the Lachman test. They would have test that on him, so an ACL would be a surprise. 

Defence need to pay the Hawks forwards one-on-one respect today imo.  Lewis, Nash, Breust and to extent Ginnivan are no slouches. Watson is an unknown but I haven't forgotten Rankine getting off the chain in his first game against us. Chol will prolly play a defensive role on Lever.  

39 minutes ago, Sir Why You Little said:

Well i am amazed Petty has been selected so early. Off the Bench surely. Hope we don’t get any early injuries. 
 

most interesting 

Devils advocate.  I'm not suggesting he is being gifted a game but these sort of decisions would definitely be memory banked by a player and his management during contract decisions. He is only human.  Being selected this week is a massive sign of faith by the FD towards him which may get paid back in spades in the next 12 months or so.

Hmm,  maybe I am suggesting he is being gifted a game but if he turns out to be the forward conmection we are looking for I'm ok with it. 

How good was the way they used Wanganeen-Milera as much as possible.  Watching him kick is like watching a Federer backhand or a Warnie leggie.  Skill and execution just sublime.    Not to the same extent, but I'd be keen to see McVee freed up a little bit to be getting that kick from the back half into the forward half.  But we seem to be trending in that direction anyhow. 

9 minutes ago, adonski said:

I've made a mental note for next time we lose a game

I quite like the NFL model where you can swap draft picks for coaches. In 2000, the Pats gave up 1st, 4th and 5th round draft picks to the Jets for Belichick. 

Hmmm what's Goody worth?  (Kidding)

Forget about the players. Get a proper coach. Longmire will be out of contract at end 2025.  

1 minute ago, old dee said:

Leaving injuries aside when you win by 7 goals why change?

Well there may be a reason, yesterday was a very hot day and with one day less the Hawks who played in the cool we may need some fresh legs. Then we have two games in Adelaide, the second game is only a 5 day break.

This.  This will be the longest season ever and player management for mature lists like ours is paramount. 

1 minute ago, Diamond_Jim said:

Dogs are a 6-10 side. Hawks are a 10-14 side.

If we are any good needs to be a regulation win in what is looking like a pleasant day

Dogs aren't a top 8 side with that backline imo.   Coffield, Khamis were absolute passengers if not liabilities. Add in Lobb and they are playing with 3 fewer players every other week. 

As others have mentioned. This is a great test for our forward line. 

Brambles has played 30 games

Coffield has played 50 games

Khamis has played 10 games. 

It's a great test because if our forward line isn't able to win one on one match ups, find separation and take marks against this lot I'm not sure when. 

TMac on Lobb is going to be box office entertainment. I can't wait. 

8 minutes ago, old dee said:

For some time now I have been wondering about van R. After Thursday’s game my opinion has been confirmed. I don’t see him as more than being occasionally useful. He is not an A grade player. We are desperately short of KPF’s which is no secret, we have no choice but to keep playing him but IMO he is far from the answer. 

It was pretty tough conditions for forwards but there needs to be less focus on intensity and contest, and more on getting seperation and space.  Fritta says hi.  4 marks a game this year to take the next step.  Below this bar and the odds of being a bona fide AFL forward is quite low.

He has the hands, so perhaps his positioning is NQR but hard to tell when not at the ground.   Having said all that he has an appetite to jump and impose himself physically which as we know is very desirable trait.  2nd year, just needs time. Not easy playing on the best key defender also.  

There is no question our forwards don't move enough.  But equally,  if we have a 3 on 2 or 4 on 3 with a 'fast break', I still not confident we score.     We don't make the right decisions or run to the right spots.  I'm sure they do a lot of work on this at training but imho it's a 'skill' that you either have or you don't.  If you're going to run with an undersized forward line you simply have to be able to take advantage of 3 on 2s.  Conversely, our back line is excellent at defending when outnumbered or out positioned. 

2 minutes ago, Redleg said:

Trac doesn't bump or tackle hard. He actually spends more time helping the opposition off the ground, or patting their heads and yes I know he is a brilliant player and a great bloke.

Good. I don't want him suspended. 

22 minutes ago, Demon Dynasty said:

I agree with this.  McVee needs to come into the middle for Salem now that Bowey's out for a stint imv.

Salem just doesn't have the burst speed to play anything but a small cameo (if needed) with minor minutes in the middle.

Mind you the burst speed appeared to be missing from pretty much everyone bar McVee & Windsor tonight.

Looked like most had concrete boots on whereas a fair percentage of Swans were the opposite out of congestion.

Lets not sugar coat it.  That was a worrying performance.

Apart from the lack of speed out of congestion, the fumbles, losing the ground ball geta, only 3 comtested marks (i think!?) and the forward woes.... it was also the ease with which they broke away from comgestion and the ease with which they broke us in the last that really worried me.

We alao had no one that was capable of going with Blakey off HB and he's been their 1 wood and doing this for 2 seasons now.

How that was not covered in the pre-match prep / selection table is mind boggling!!???  We made sure it didn't the last few times we played them.

Was last night's performance a true reflection of where this list is at or does this team just comtinue to suck in any sort of wet/greasy conditions ie;  most night games! and a number of winter day games??

I guess we'll know in about 5 to 6 weeks.

Yep. A bit of patience is needed now.  I thought Salem was ok and did some nice things but the lack of leg speed was very evident. Pickett was sorely missed.  

Also, I'm not sure in what world Charlie Spargo offers more than Jack Billings.  Spargo offers nothing overhead and when you're struggling for a mark inside 50 it essentially become 5 on 6. Billings also can take a pot shot from 45 and nail it. Again, not the reason we lost but watching the same players struggle with the same limitations is just frustrating.  

4 hours ago, Demon_spurs said:

6 May (absolute legend)

5 Howes (poise and class)

4 McVee (great gane)

3 Fritsch (3 goals but lots of errors)

 Tomlinson ( sorry I nearly forgot him )

1 Windsor for showing some poise and class

It seems funny we can produce great defenders but cannot find the right mix in attack, maybe we need to recruit a forward coach that actually played on the forward line

PS I really struggled past McVee

You didn't give votes to a midfield that got smashed and couldn't hit a target inside 50??  This is not the Demomland way. 

Not the reason we lost as we were putrid at the start of the last quarter.  But until Judd McVee (or if Petracca kicks well) gets midfield minutes nothing is going to change.  His handball fake and then kicking into the space the FORWARDS ARE MEANT TO BE LEADING TO cannot be taught or trained. Name one other player on our list that does that through instinct (Jake Melksham says hold my beer).   Enjoy the season.