FlashInThePan

I wonder if he would comment on Dunkley’s comment preseason that the dogs don’t do much running preseason compared to the lions. I’m guessing he wasn’t dissing the doggies so much as alluding to different approaches to loading up in training blocks.

OMG did Vince really say 426??!!

 That’s it we won’t see him again this year 😭

Interestingly, stats insider’s super confusing predictive model has this game at 50/50. Something must have happened in the last few days because last time I looked they had Brisbane as 52% likely to win and us 48%. I’m guessing what happened was our ins. If that is so May, Viney and Fritsch should feel pretty insulted that their inclusion only raises our chance to win by 2%.

I think a couple of factors went into our earlier approach and the changes we are seeing now. Firstly, I don't think we kicked well enough to warrant the super risky corridor kick. We've always had players like Salem who could risk it but not enough to create a game style around it. Mark Williams has really lifted the average kicking skill at the club over the past few years and the addition of Bowey and the evolution of Brayshaw to the half back and now McVee have meant that we could do this more consistently. Secondly, the introduction of the protected zone and stationary on the mark rule has meant that there are more opportunities for playing on and changing the angle since the man on the mark can't creep across to cover the angle and no one can come into the protected zone.

We developed a high percentage style that factored out poor kicking and allowed our full team defence to work to it's best advantage, we had a massive advantage in stoppages and contest which that style really leveraged. It certainly worked for 2021 but it got broken down in 2022 and teams realised that a great way to beat us was to fold back and clog up our forward line so we couldn't score and count on a high risk run and gun style to break through our defence. We have definitely responded to that by changing the angles and opening up the ground moving the ball much faster to open  without fundamentally changing our approach. I am dying to play the Cats and Collingwood to see if our defence can hold up under that kind of pressure. that will be the real test for us.

I feel like it's groundhog day. Doesn't this happen every year?! Champion data release their rankings and everyone freaks out and gets all outraged. No wonder they keep doing it, it generates so much outrage and therefor so many clicks. They have been slow getting them out this year so Fox is jump starting the outrage cycle by using the ratings in this game for the same effect. God this is tiresome

1 hour ago, Beetle said:

Say what you went about Watts, this is to this day in the top 5 live moments I’ve had as a Melbourne supporter:

 

 

Totally agree Beetle, I yelled myself horse. That was quite a football moment and such sweet revenge for Watts

4 hours ago, Jaded No More said:

I don't think he'd be available for selection at any level if they thought he's at risk of further injury. VFL or AFL, you would not take chances on your best forward 2 years running if you suspected his foot might blow up.

We have enough players with dodgy feet thanks. 

I am so torn. Honestly, I think we will struggle to win the flag without Fritsch in the forward line, but if I had the opportunity to see a human foot literally explode on field…

I presume those saying Kozzie will get weeks we’re watching on tv and that was what the commentators said?

At the game that just looked like a stupid late contact that amounted to nothing. Smith gave Kozzie a tap on the but as he went back for his free kick. Even the replay looked hard but not head high.

11 minutes ago, Vipercrunch said:

I reckon the notion that it’s a significant experiment is grossly overstated. How is it so different to the Gawn/Jackson combo?  

The media have hyped the hell out of it. Mostly because they are both AA and neither is a notable forward. I agree, it is not going to be the most significant factor. Based on what I saw against Richmond it is going to be out ball movement. I do think trying to take the 45 kick will open it up for us to use Gawn and Grundy more effectively as outlets.

Just trawled through the 2022 membership thread to get our membership count for this time last year (god we post a lot of rubbish just by the way). It was 49,667 and that was directly following our GF win. It is a really good sign for us that we are still growing strongly. If we keep going this way breaking 70k this year should be doable and 75k a tough stretch but not out of the question.

I’ll be taking 6 to the game including my English born father in law who will spend half the game asking me why we call this football. I’ll be so happy that footy is back that I won’t even care. I’ll locate a good mate and his clan of doggies supporters for a bit of smack talk and hopefully walk with them to Jolimont after the game while teaching them the words to ‘it’s a grand old flag’

3 hours ago, Orion said:

Yeah they were lucky eleven times

Yes, they were. The same way that port we’re lucky a few years ago. But don’t make this about opinion just read the data:  https://www.statsinsider.com.au/news/like-it-or-not-a-close-afl-game-really-is-a-coin-flip

 And then realise that every team practices end game scenarios. That’s right, every team. It just suited the media to hype up the narrative that Collingwood were doing something special and that was why they were winning all their close games.

 Hey, who knows, they might win some close ones this year too. Stats tend to pick trends over time reasonably well and individual outcomes less well. But over time their ratio of winning close games will regress to the mean.

More importantly they came out of nowhere with a run and gun game plan that people didn’t take seriously and that worked super well for them, combined with a fair bit of luck. As I said in my earlier post, let’s see how that game plan does when people put some energy into stopping it.

On 3/11/2023 at 12:10 PM, Orion said:

No way Collingwood's missing finals.  They could win it.

I think there is every chance that they miss finals. Time and time again it has been shown that wins in close games regress to the mean.

More than that, though, their brand of attacking, high risk footy is highly susceptible to structured defence. Teams will put some work into them this year. Daicos will not be allowed to waltz around with 10m of clear space to pinpoint a target. Teams will close down the corridor and play an interceptor a kick behind play. The ridiculous mythology that the media generated about practicing to win close games will be shown to just be Lady Luck playing her hand.

On 3/2/2023 at 4:30 PM, fr_ap said:

'Lol' - Hes played 49 games, 24 last year. 

Ergo, it was effectively - at least in terms of experience - his 2nd year when compared to Clarry who played almost full seasons from his very first year after being drafted. 

Yes last year he had the benefit of being older, fitter and probably stronger than Clarry was during his 2nd season; but games played is the only reasonable benchmark.  

Sorry, that is just not true. Games played is certainly a strong factor but so is age and number of years in an elite system. Brodie is a solid mid, no doubt and I think he still has a fair bit of upside but comparing him to Clarrie is laughable

I’m going to spare myself the self mutilation of trawling through another multi hundred page thread of alternating pleading, agro and conjecture masquerading as fact.

 Could someone DM me or start a new thread if any actual facts emerge?

2 hours ago, daisycutter said:

"Shoot for the moon, even if you miss, you'll land among the stars." (Les Brown)

may the force be with us, dz

I think, given what we know about space exploration these days, this saying should be changed to ‘shoot for the moon, even if you miss you will no doubt suffocate slowly, decompress and explode or burn up in re-entry’

7 hours ago, JimmyGadson said:

 

Your post highlights exactly why quoting statistics alone is absolutely pointless and the hilarious thing is that the 'myth' actually exists in the heart of your post.

Firstly, it's not clear whether or not you're talking about the season just gone or last year as in 2021?

If it's the latter, I'm not sure why you'd bother posting these stats at all given Gus played wing the whole year and when you're predominantly outside of where the heat is, naturally you'll have a higher DE by both foot and hand. 

If you're talking about this year, the same argument applies given his move to the middle (where it's the hardest area to stack consistent effective disposals) came very late in the year and up until then he played across half back mostly, (a position where it is the easiest to stack consistent effective disposals).

Supporters who suggest Gus butchers the ball more than he should are absolutely dead on the money. No useless statistics will be able debunk that. 

Gus was afforded more time, space and less pressure with ball in hand than Trac and Clarry due to the position he played in most of this season and last. Naturally, his disposal efficiency will be higher. However, he still butchers the ball far too often when under little to no pressure. 

Your eyes will tell you that and not a silly statistic.

 

The stats I provided are from this past year. But hey, you go with your eye, we are living in a new world where alternative facts are all the rage.

21 hours ago, Ollie fan said:

I want him at HBF. Great interceptor. But his disposal is too iffy for the key midfield.

This is one of those myths that seems to get a bit of airtime on DL that I’d like to call out. I doubt we have a better midfield kick than Gus, and that is on both sides of his body. Last year his kicking efficiency was 67.6%, that is around 15% more efficient than Oliver and 11% better than Petracca. No one on our team with significant midfield minutes disposed of the ball anywhere near as well by foot unless you count JJ on the wing (around 73%).

i don’t mind people criticising our players if it there is an actual issue in their game. But there are a lot of completely inaccurate criticisms here that seem to become like a meme. This is one of those.

Nibbler is a total enigma to me. His transitional running and positioning I know is really important to our game. In 2021, when he got the ball, he did good things. In 2022 when he got the ball he would often make bad choices or cough it up. There is a bit of me that just thinks we should get rid of him, but I just don’t know how we would fill the hole.

 When he strings it all together the way he did in our 21 campaign he is an absolute lock. I don’t know why the difference between his best and worst is so big but it is very frustrating. The coaches definitely see something I don’t though, there is no way he would have been in my top ten for demon players last year. He’d have been lucky to make my top 20

5 hours ago, jnrmac said:

According to Buckenara we should move Ed on.

What a peanut.

This is absolutely hilarious. I don't think it even makes it to the level of opinionated click bait. It is just a very ignorant statement from someone who clearly doesn't know Ed and his role with the Dees or doesn't understand football very well.

With no evidence whatsoever to back me up, I’m going to suggest that Howe comes in and adds what we have been missing in the high half forward role. 

This is probably one of the hard calls that the coaches need to make. He makes great decisions with the ball and he tackles really well, in 2022 he just didn’t do enough of either. I can’t work out whether it was injury, form or whether something else was asked of him. Either way, it can’t just be left like this. We need more from his position.

53 minutes ago, dazzledavey36 said:

We were linked to Laurie, Oliver, Jackson, Pickett off the top of my head in Cal Twomey's phantom drafts.

I know some say we don't let on who we're selecting reality is we actually have a very fair idea who we may select. 

Twomey is extremely respected amongst Recruiters and player managers hence why he gets more right then wrong.

As I said, people started speculating on Jacko very close to the draft. It seemed something leaked around the last week from memory. in 2020 Knightmare had us picking Sam Berry and Issiah Winder. According to this: https://www.afc.com.au/news/841315/cal-twomeys-2020-phantom-draft-top-30-late-picks-your-clubs-whispers Cal Twomey had us linked to Caroll and Max Holmes and Laurie going to GWS. 

All I know for sure is that the player that JT selects is unlikely to be named as the player we will select in a Phantom draft. I haven't seen a phantom draft with an accurate prediction on a demons pick in the past few years. Although in 2019 the media did start to twig on Jacko getting very close to draft day, for the longest time we were linked to Young and Weightman though. I never heard us linked with Bowey and Laurie in 2020 and Howes was supposed to go in the first round in 2021. I'll be interested to see ho we do pick up, we should be getting nearly close enough for actual leaks to start coming out.

2 hours ago, Demon Disciple said:

Apparently next years depth is meant to be much stronger, so I’d be reluctant. Would rather try and trade them for a first next year though

I don’t want to be a [censored], but doesn’t this get said every year?