I think this is at least part of the answer.
September specials: Tightest finals series in more than two decades (afl.com.au)
The amount of free kicks paid to the team behind.
I think Tigers have probably had it worse than anyone. In Lions v Tigers first final I counted 23 free kicks in first 3 quarters to team behind to 10 free kicks to team in front. Reversed in the last quarter 4 to 3.
Dees v Sydney qualifying final, first 3 quarters, team behind 17 free kicks to 11 for the team in front. Last quarter 3 free kicks to the team behind to 6 free kicks to the team in front (of course we were behind for most of that quarter).
Dees v Lions semi-final, team behind in first 3 quarters 16 free. Team in front 15 free kicks. Reversed 6 to 4 in last quarter.
Freo v Pies semi-final, first 3 quarters team behind 23 to i think 14 team in front.
I think it's like this (haven't looked at all of them) for most of our home and away losses. I think Freo was the only team that really got a hold of us.
Anyway i suspect teams are aware of this focusing on a territory game - playing forward half, better to give a free kick away as far as possible away from goal.
And I don't think i counted more than 2 free kicks for us in a row all season, certainly for our losses, has a WWE vibe to it for me. Do the umpires pay what they see? Or are they umpiring the score?
Its not just us, Pies had it rough in that first quarter last week v Freo 10 to 4.
I am not saying it's the only reason for the fade outs, but more than a co-incidence that so many games go right down the wire now and we can't hold a lead and yes of course kicking straight. I think Pies are managing this umpiring really well. So it can be done.
I will add really confident that these next 2 finals will have at least for the first 3 quarters, more free kicks to the team behind.
If there is nothing in it and all 4 teams are on. I am picking Brisbane v Sydney for the Grand Final.