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I wouldn't have expected us to be favourites in the betting market but: The game is at the MCG, where the Dogs are 1-1 this year, with a run of the mill win vs Collingwood and then a second-half trouncing by Richmond, and they haven't played there since Round 7 The Dogs aren't really in form - they're 4-3 over their last 7 games (we're 4-2-1 by comparison) and the only one of their 4 wins in that stretch of note was vs West Coast, who aren't in any form to speak of themselves (and there was no crowd at their game in Perth) - remaining wins were vs Fremantle, North and Gold Coast Each of the last two weeks they've only generated 20 scoring shots (equal third-lowest they've had all year) and each of the last three weeks they've conceded 24 scoring shots (second-worst they've had all year) They scored 100+ points in 6 of their first 10 games but since Round 11 (losing to us) they've only reached 100 once We've already comprehensively outplayed them once this year

Is Brisbane a good team? Currently 5th on the ladder and three weeks ago were premiership favorites. So by most measures the answer would be yes. They have just lost two games in a row against lower ranked teams. One more and they will also have 3 losses against lower ranked teams. Just. Like. Us. How about the Swans. Are they a good team? Currently 6th on the ladder, but only a game and percentage outside the top 4. So by most measures the answer would be yes. A very similar age profile to the dees. But hold on a minute. This year they have also lost 3 games against lower ranked teams, including a 38 point touch up on their own deck by the hawks. I'm getting confused. I may not like it, but the evidence does not support the proposition good teams don't lose as much as we do to lower ranked teams.

2017. The tigers win their first of three flags. By any measure a really good team. They lost seven games for the season. Three were against lower ranked teams - Dogs (finished 10th), Freo (14th) and the Saints (11th). The saints flogged the tigers in round 16, 138 to 71. 2019. Flag number two. They lost six games for the season. Three were against lower ranked teams - Dogs (8th), Crows (11th) and Roos (12th) 2020. Flag number 3. In a season they only played 17 home and away games, won 12 and lost 4. Half of those losses were against lower ranked teams - the hawks (15th) and GWS (10th)

Looks like we have got our first Father- Daughter selection....Georgia Campbell, daughter of Adrian Campbell. Touted as a top 20 pick, we will only have to outlay our first pick at 42! https://womens.afl/news/73318/father-daughter-product-headed-for-melbourne

Brown's key responsibility is to be a good forward. That might mean kicking goals one week, but if he's not kicking goals he needs to be leading, making contests, being a threat, etc., to help release pressure on TMac/Fritsch and to bring our smalls into play. Given how we played vs Essendon and GWS, I remain of the view that we can't go into games with just TMac as the tall, and Fritsch/Jackson as support. We need, IMO, a second tall. Our options really are Brown or Weideman. Brown's now had five games, the same as Weideman, and his stats are now almost universally better than Weideman's for the season. Weideman averages more tackles per game and more defensive half pressure acts, but Brown otherwise is doing more: he gets more disposals, has more kicks, generates more inside 50s, has a higher disposal efficiency, gets the ball at ground level more (ground ball gets), takes more marks (contested and uncontested), kicks double the goals, and has more shots on goal per game. So in my view, we have two options, and the one currently in the side is outperforming the other one, and we need one of them in the side, so there shouldn't be any debate right now about Brown holding his spot, not unless/until his performances are inferior to what we'd expect from Weideman.

To put all this Academy stuff into perspective - my nephew just got accepted into an AFL academy through the school he’s going to attend. He’s 11. He’s a ripping player for his age, but there’s a long way to go between now and 18, and it highlights the way the system works. The kids are babies when they get access to this stuff - hence why few of them actually come into the AFL. Nah, actually I just posted this to brag about my nephew. He’s a legend! We are definitely drinking our own bath water at my place tonight. ?

So true. Imagine you’re sitting at work and your boss says ‘ok everyone gather round. I’ve brought in a bunch of people who worked here 17 years ago to regale you with war stories to ensure you make the most of the coming months. We’ll start with Sharyn who used to work in HR, but now runs a successful online essential oils company. Sharyn the floor is yours’. It won’t mean much. I’d rather they spent the time kicking footballs, as radical as that sounds.

Can confirm

Those are last year's stats, @jnrmac. The menu at the top allows you to select a season and you've got it on 2020.

If we don't take advantage of this blessed and magical run of injuries in 2021, we are idiots. This sort of run is extremely unusual, and we will regret it if we don't capitalise on it. *Goes to knock on all available lockdown wood*

And Sydney who are currently flying are now deemed to be a poor clearance team. As I have said continuously teams back there structures and game style. Clarko never worried about clearances in the 3 peat, regaining, maintaining possession and having good transition was his focus. There is no right or wrong answer, do I have concerns yes, especially over the last 5 games. Are there reasons yes, I’m not making excuses the increased training load over the bye was discussed by Gawn and the media. I also think the FD will be tweaking how we play to counter what teams are going to throw at us, because let’s face it we are not going to totally change the approach which got us to this position with finals this close. We are at that point now where the forward cohesion needs to click and the counter strategy to Salem, Lever, Langdon, May being targeted is identified and implemented. Stats and media input can support any argument. Leigh Montagna compares Vineys game on the weekend to Dangers similar return after the 4 games as a good sign, but those wanting to pot Viney disregard it. IMV Viney was best suited playing more forward but that is just MO, and his disposal inside 50 on the weekend was poor. Last week all media experts were praising us after beating Port convincingly. Surprise surprise that’s changed and now we have been poor for 6 to 8 weeks, really? Do they actually review what they say week 8 Dogs convincing win, dominant performance week 7 Lions convincing dominating second half week 6 Pies really poor performance week 5 bye week 4 Bombers did enough but areas of concern specifically with conversion and failing to capitalise on ruck dominance but no issues with defensive structure or transition week 3 Giants first warning sign of the plus 1 in the opposition midfield and exposed badly at the clearances, stoppages, delivery inside 50 poor and conversion again poor. week 2 Port pretty dominant all night, Port never really in it structure was very pronounced every time Port tried to transition week 1 Hawks poor conversion, pretty even in the clearances, but unlike Giants Hawks put pressure on us at every clearance and we went back to 2020/19 of Bombing it in. Hawks nullified May and Lever and put work into Salem. Rivers was poor and Hibberd was very dumbly causing 2 direct opposition goals with poor handball under pressure Basically I fully agree that we need to bring pressure, intensity and team first approach for the remainder of the H&A season, everything else falls into place after that and what will be will be. My biggest concern is from the Giants game in regard to the Cats and Dogs having the players capable by foot of exposing us in similar fashion to Whitfield and Kelly. Sydney also have these players but the issue I see with them is they will utilise their foot skills transitioning from their defensive half and avoid getting into a stoppage game. If we play the Swans again we need to avoid being Bees to the honeypot and minimise turnovers in the forward half

Interestingly they also had a higher, albeit only slightly, pressure rating than us in that game. Something like 170 to 167. I was surprises after the game when i saw that stat on fox as watching it live it felt like we we were applying far more pressure. Perhaps we just handled it better. to win this game it is important we: stop their fast transtion game from half back make sure their forwards have no clear lanes to lead into (which they wont if we make it hard for them to move the ball quickly) minimise their scoring chances from center clearances Other teams have been doing these things pretty well in the last 6 weeks and they have struggled. The key though of course is applying max pressure. I reckon their game plan is suspect under intense pressure becuase it relies so much on lots of quick handballs and precise kicks. In the games against sides that have really applied crazy pressure and intensity - the tigers, the dees and the Swans they have struggled to kick a competitive score and duly lost. In those games they could only score 55, 59 and 60 points respectively.

I think that a key to our success this year has not to make knee jerk reactions at the selection table and try and get as much continuity between the playing group. We were bad against the Hawks, but fantastic against Port the week prior. The same players. It’s not selection that will make the difference, it’s effective application of our proven game plan. If we bring our high pressure game, the Dogs will struggle, as they don’t like it and start to bomb long (straight into our hands). I trust Burgess and Goodwin have a plan to get us into the finals and succeed in the finals. Week 19 doesn’t matter unless it’s part of the plan. On Viney. He is a work in progress - he also had 32 touches and 11 tackles. If he can get his efficiency and decision making right, he will be a major asset. Harmes in, Vandenberg out. Go again.

Rich coming from Dermie the sniping [censored]

I love the idea that bringing out players in their late 40s is going to be somehow motivating to a 19 year old. Just because it means something to the old guys on Demonland doesn't mean that it means anything to the players. I'm in my late 30s, and I'll nod and smile when people talk about Robbie Flower but they may as well be talking about Ron Barassi, Bluey Truscott or Allan La Fontaine. Sure, I know they were good players because old people keep telling me (whilst I smile and nod politely), but I don't have any connection to them beyond that. Luke Jackson was 2 years old when that happened. His first reaction to seeing the 2004 team is likely to be "OMG, there's a third Nathan Brown?!?!"

This is the ANB interview on the club website......forget the interview.....in the background is Greg Stafford working with Kossie on his goal kicking, much more interesting: https://www.melbournefc.com.au/video/983044/off-the-track-alex-neal-bullen?videoId=983044&modal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1626676252001

Here is some statistical comparisons (on averages) for this season between Viney, Petracca, Oliver, Jordon and Harmes: Tackles: Viney 7.4, Oliver 5.2, Harmes 5.2, Jordon 5.1, Petracca 4.1 Tackles inside 50: Viney 1.4, Jordon 1.1, Harmes 0.7, Oliver 0.5, Petracca 0.4 Pressure acts: Viney 26.7, Harmes 24.2, Oliver 23, Petracca 22.1, Jordon 18.2 Score involvements: Petracca 7.8, Oliver 7.4, Viney 4.6, Harmes 3.9, Jordon 3.7 Goal assists: Oliver 0.5, Petracca 0.5, Harmes 0.3, Jordon 0.3, Viney 0 Inside 50s: Petracca 7.3, Oliver 5.2, Viney 4.2, Harmes 3.4, Jordon 2.4 Clearances: Oliver 7.5, Petracca 6.3, Viney 4.4, Harmes 3.1, Jordon 1.7 Centre clearances: Oliver 2.9, Petracca 2.9, Viney 1.6, Harmes 1.1, Jordon 0.3 Stoppage clearances: Oliver 4.6, Petracca 3.4, Viney 2.9, Harmes 2.0, Jordon 1.4 Contested possessions: Oliver 16.6, Petracca 14.1, Viney 10.8, Harmes 9.8, Jordon 6.1 Turnovers: Petracca 6.9, Oliver 5.2, Viney 4.9, Harmes 3.7, Jordon 3.4 Clangers: Petracca 5.3, Oliver 5.1, Harmes 4.0, Viney 3.9, Jordon 2.5 Ground ball gets: Oliver 10.5, Petracca 9.5, Harmes 7.4, Viney 6.1, Jordon 4.8 Metres gained: Petracca 545.1, Oliver 420.5, Viney 274.8, Oliver 243.2, Harmes 231.2 Marks: Petracca 5.3, Oliver 4.1, Harmes 3.3, Jordon 2.9, Viney 2.2 Viney rates top for some defensive stats (tackles and pressure acts) but mid-table for offensive stats. Which makes sense, tbh.

After that game i think i need 413 shots and 208 pints.

The man who uses 2000 words to explain something that could be explained in 20. Apart from that, don’t mind Derm.

dermott literally stomped on a former teammate's head

We are an infinitely better side with Brown in, there is no way he goes out. Of the players on notice, I think he'd be well behind a few others.

I am also really looking forward to BBB kicking 3-4 goals in a game just to show that he is still up to it. I like the structure that he brings to our forward 50 but he Tmac and LJ need to maintain some separation . We want multiple choices not all jumping at the same ball. Go DEES…!!!!

Another 7 days in Victoria

Conjures a vision of Dame Edna dressed in a MFC guernsey.

Not sure which polish strategy will help.Lech Walesa and the dock strikers did bring down the previous regime, forming impenetrable lines at the docklands despite powerful opposition. The polish pope also intstigated reforms and labour workforce statements around fairness and equitable treatment. While both were remarkably successful perhaps you are referring to some sports ground tactics which I am not aware of. Does Melksham have some polish heritage?

The last two dot points seem so obvious one wonders why they weren't already in place.

Reckon he needs continuity of playing Smokey, I'd give him another 3 weeks of playing before I"d consider dropping him.

Love your efforts in sourcing those stats. Well done ?

Melbourne Demons, Non possumus confidebat

Are we talking about the incident where beanpole fritsch hip-and- shouldered DGB fairly in a marking contest? Pretty sure it's not baileys fault that DGBs shoulders are made of glass.

He really does trip over his own explanations with some frequency... Just like he tripped over Rayden Tallis' head that time

I don't think a bye for all teams makes sense. Things could still get worse, meaning it may become even harder to schedule games. The AFL should play whatever games they can this week, even if it is not a complete round. For example, surely there's no reason why Victorian teams due to play each other, whether this week or in rounds 20-23 could not play this weekend.

Excellent post. Each point spot on. The most realistic and unbiased/constructive assessment I've seen of our recent performances and the issues before us..

I appreciate this discussion, especially with regard to Gawn and our stoppages. I reject it is a noose around our neck, but it is not a point of difference that it should be with Gawn and those three at his feet. That is essentially the argument that Deanox and Lord Nev are having; the former correctly says if you look at the cumulative we are up their with the best rucks, and Lord Nev is saying that with the domination we should be far in front of the best rucks in the game. We have obviously downplayed stoppages under Goodwin and co in favour of pressuring the disposal in the stoppage, thinking that good teams and miss will read Gawn. That bet makes sense to me but when we are not pressuring maniacally it compounds the issue of not concentrating on utilising Gawns dominance more. Lastly, maybe we are not capable of leveraging his dominance. Our top end midfield is great but our 4th best mid doesn’t stack up. We don’t run deep.

You can't trust the Tigers. Coz they are so mentally weak. I know that to be true coz good teams don't get beaten by lower ranked teams as much as we do. Doesn't happen

I agree with this generally. And I'd say there clearly is a trend against weaker opposition not to get the job done, but we constantly bring the right mental attitude to the bigger games and as many have said, we simply can't be up every week. Recent historical premiers have been through a similar experience. The big thing is that we are Melbourne, with a history, a backlog of failure and mental fragility. This team however is on top and is clearly the best team in the competition. The only reason the media are wary is because it's the Melbourne Football Club, and like us supporters, as you rightly point out, they have a history to look back on of failure. They are therefore skeptical. If any other team had dominated the top 4 teams like we have, there'd be no doubt from commentators. As for the flakey 2004 team that managed to get itself to the top for a solitary week, schooling a team that's been on top for the majority of the year and comfortably accounted for all major contenders, well, it's laughable.

MELBOURNE defender Harrison Petty has been given the all-clear after an injury scare during Saturday’s clash with the Hawks. Petty came off during the second quarter with a suspected hamstring injury but tested well and played out the remainder of the game. He is expected to be back to full capacity after a strong training session on Monday.

Thanks for this analysis . Always helpful to have the facts rather than necessarily mfcss. Goodwin unlocked the dogs last time which has since been emulated by othet coaches. Ignore media. They only have attention spans of last 48 hours.

That's right. And a big reason is, no matter how good your ruckman it is extremely hard at center bounces to execute the perfect tap to a mid who is moving at speed and can get out the front of the stoppage and kick cleanly inside 50. But that is exactly what max is trying to achieve when he does win a hit to advantage. A clean hit to a mid who, coming from 10-15 metres, hits it at pace and gives it off to another mid out the front of the contest, who kicks deep into our forward 50, or if possible to a leading forward. There were two perfect examples of this against the hawks that resulted in Viney kicking the ball deep inside 50 (unfortunately both to a hawks defender). Another great example was the goal we got in the Port game where Nibbler got a clean possession out the front of the centre bounce and drilled it to Tmac. If he can't execute this set play (becuase the bounce is not straight, the mids are blocked, he doesn't time his leap, can't get a clean tap etc etc) he more often than not hits to the defensive side of the contest and/or drops it close to the contest. Either way it rarely goes to advantage becuase Oliver and Trac, when in the centre, stand well away from the bounce. This doesn't mean it goes to an opposition player - it is often just a scrap. If it does go to an opposition player, or we lose the scrap, the resulting disposal is under pressure and that's where our defensive intercepts come in to play. I'm sure the club could could increase max's hit out to advantage stats should they wish to. For one thing Oliver and tracc could set up much closer to the contest. In 2018 Max was number one in the AFL in hit outs to advantage. And on the back of that we were the dominant centre clearance team. But those hit outs to advantage were often to a Viney or Oliver right next to him and their kick inside 50 was under pressure and often swallowed up by the opposition defenders. Which was a big factor in why we lost some games where we dominated centre clearances and had way more inside 50s than the opposition. By the by, i'm assuming that hit out to advantage stat is for centre bounces? If it is also for around the ground stoppages, then there is an another obvious reason for max's ranking in the hit outs to advantage stats - as everyone now knows we are at a numerical disadvantage at every around the ground stoppages because we send an extra back. And more often than not opposition team send an extra to the contest. Makes sense then that it is harder to hit to advantage. Max is good but he is not a magician. Again, if we simply wanted max to win more hit outs to advantage we could achieve that by bringing our extra to the contest, as King has advocated (which i think we did against the bombers after half time). But as Montagna said in response, that's not our game. Looking at stats like hit out to advantage in isolation can be misleading. Same goes for centre clearances. As Hardwick has pointed out, what is important is what happens after winning the clearance. I might be wrong as i don't have the stat at hand, but i recall reading or hearing a couple of weeks back that we are in the top 3 for scores from clearances that we win. If so my assumption is that clean hit outs to advantage of the type Nibbler set up Tmac from are a big reason why.

Everything is not rosy - I maintain our biggest issue is goal conversion. We won: i50s: 58v50 - Maximum team average is the Lions on just under 56 https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/fts_team_rankings?type=TA&year=2021&sby=20 Marks in i50: 14v6 - Maximum team average is the Lions on 14.6 https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/fts_team_rankings?type=TA&year=2021&sby=28&advv=Y Tackles in i50 11v8 - Maximum team average is Port at 11. https://www.afl.com.au/stats/team-rankings?CompSeason=20&GameWeeks=-1#rankingstable Scoring shots: 24v19 - Maximum average is the Dogs on 26.8, and next the Lions on 24.7, then us on 24.3 https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/fts_team_rankings?type=TA&year=2021&sby=4 We definitely generated enough chances on a wet freezing night - but we failed to take them. If that continues we won't beat the Dogs or win the flag.

Hope they're ok as can be expected. What a shambles. Like I said, come election time....

Because we smashed the Bulldogs last time, are on top of the ladder and haven't lost to a top 8, let alone top 4 side. That could be the reason...

It's a good point @Clint Bizkit So if we're working off the hypothesis, that as a FD and team, we are prepared to risk losing first use, due to pressuring the opposition and getting a dump kick, and feeling that particular option works more consistently (when it occurs, getting ball in d50 and working back for a cleaner delivery into the F50 (rather than first use and pressured kick), then the inverse for our opponents is also true, hence our back 6 performing very well throughout the season (with added bonus pressure from the mids on the kicks entering the D50). Whilst I'd rather us blow teams out of the water - and to be fair - I'm not sure what happened after 1/4 time in the game (but as noted Hawthorns pressure gauge was well up), I'm not worried about it. So what does this mean for Gawn and the midfield brigade for being 16th to hitouts for advantage? Well, I'd imagine it's a reaction to 2017-2020 opposition trying to shark (and consistently doing well at it) all taps to advantage from Gawn - as the assumption was made - Gawn is ultimately going to win 80-90% of taps, so lets set up that way as the opposition. That then nullified our midfielders propensity to win the ball... As a reaction to that (as well as other factors, being beaten on the outside) - Goodwin and co have set up the midfielders in a way whereby if they DO get the ball from a tap - great, but also if they don't win the clearance - damage isn't huge. I'd argue the evidence is there, we're on top of the ladder, no team has blown US out of the water, up to the bye we were on 'record' to becoming a team that had the best (least) ever % of D50 entries to conversions. We've lost (and drawn) 4 games by a total of 29 points - that'd be 7.25 points a game. And whilst the evidence is teams are always kept in it, which always feels uncomfortable - I believe this style will hold us in good stead for the finals over the next 3-4 years (should we make it, injuries would be my only concern). The game always tightens up in finals, it's more attritional, systems win, not individual players, but individual players can influence - and we've got (May and Lever, Petracca and Oliver, and probably Pickett, and perhaps Brown and Tmac, as those forwards who could light it up). As bizarre as it sounds, I'm not worried about the hit outs to advantage stat, because teams have been counteracting Max for years, and we've had to find a way to counteract their positioning, rather than trying to get first use at all costs, and been blown out of the water on the outside as we've been done for 4-5 years. It's not sexy, but it's smart coaching.

The Dogs have dropped off significantly since their early season form, and while most would point to Dunkley/Treloar as being reasons, i personally think it's Stef Martin. he was really giving them a big edge in the middle, and allowing English to stretch backlines, but English while talented, probably isn't in the top 6-7 ruckman in the comp, so they probably don't get first use quite as much as they did with Martin, and that's where they were really killing teams, out of stoppages. I think we will beat them again, but it'll be a tight contest. if we are at our best i'd say we win by 3 goals and it does really put us in a strong position for top 2 with games against the Suns, Crows, Eagles and Cats to come. we should win minimum 3 of those.

All teams are predictable and everyone knows how everyone plays. These coaching groups are all fairly smart and will have an understanding of how to beat sides. Sides back their structures to beat the opposition. This is a tough competition and if you’re slightly off it impacts your structures. But kick straight in those performances against those lower sides and we win. However wins sometimes paper over cracks, which (despite what posters think) footy departments will identify and work to evolve. When sides expose a weakness it allows you to make some tweaks. The Dogs will have a plan to counter us sitting on Libba this week

Media are cranking up their 'we can't be trusted' story again which might be a good thing for this game. We should probably translate it into latin and add it to our club logo.

Nothing gets passed you, D11...

When Natalie gets out of the shower and back into bed, I'll ask her Colin.

Yep, fully vaccinated people can transmit covid, so all the same safety measures would still need to apply. But the likelihood of anyone who does get it getting really crook or being hospitalized is very low. But speaking from a personal point of view i'd prefer to sit in stand where i knew everyone was fully vaccinated. I could just chillvax, kick vac, and enjoy the game.