DR4 Brownlow Medal

[dees_rule_4eva 22]

Only one round left in the DR4 Brownlow Medal and only three players can win it. Gary Ablett, Jimmy Bartel and Brent Harvey. Ablett has a one vote lead from Bartel and it looks like one of them will be the winners. Harvey needs to poll 3 votes in the last round and hope Geelong get beaten. Who will win it?

The best placed Melbourne players are James McDonald and Nathan Jones on 7 votes.

Leaderboard

G. Ablett - 28

J. Bartel - 27

B. Harvey - 25

D. Kerr - 22

M. Pavlich - 20

N. Riewoldt - 19

[Demons 32 235]

Only one round left in the DR4 Brownlow Medal and only three players can win it. Gary Ablett, Jimmy Bartel and Brent Harvey. Ablett has a one vote lead from Bartel and it looks like one of them will be the winners. Harvey needs to poll 3 votes in the last round and hope Geelong get beaten. Who will win it?

The best placed Melbourne players are James McDonald and Nathan Jones on 7 votes.

Leaderboard

G. Ablett - 28

J. Bartel - 27

B. Harvey - 25

D. Kerr - 22

M. Pavlich - 20

N. Riewoldt - 19

Are you saying Jonathon Brown is not on your leaderboard?

I hope he is at least top 10. He should have got multiple best on grounds for a patch.

[BrownlowBruce 1]

according to sportsbet the odds would suggest neither jones or jmac are the best placed demons...

[dees_rule_4eva 22]

according to sportsbet the odds would suggest neither jones or jmac are the best placed demons...

Then I suggest that come Brownlow night, you put a bet on one of them being our highest vote getter.

Demons32, Jonathon Brown is in my top 10 ... with a whole host of players on 18 votes.

[Arem 0]

Doing your own brownlow throughout the year in order to make a profit from it is extremely risky and dangerous. In fact, you're almost guaranteed to lose money.

dr4e, what was your top 10 last year, and how did those players actually perform in the real count?

[dees_rule_4eva 22]

Doing your own brownlow throughout the year in order to make a profit from it is extremely risky and dangerous. In fact, you're almost guaranteed to lose money.

dr4e, what was your top 10 last year, and how did those players actually perform in the real count?

Hi Arem. Last year I profited $250 so I was happy with that. I had Brad Johnson and Adam Goodes joint winners, and from memory Scott West, Cameron Bruce, Nick Riewoldt and some others were in my top 10. Overall, I was pretty close to the real thing, the only difference being that my vote count was a little higher than the real deal. The only real player who didnt perform as well in the real count as he did in mine was Paul Chapman.

[Arem 0]

So what were your bets?

Johnson finished way down, Bruce and Riewoldt weren't even close.

Goodes was the raging hot favourite going in, with West not far behind. Both would have had short odds.

I'm still not sure how you made a profit, let alone $250.

You must have had a bucket load on Goodes to win which imo is a crazy risk to take on something like the Brownlow. For your own sake, i'd advise against taking a similar approach this year.

[deanox 9,915]

arem, im not sure why you are attacking this thread, it is just a bit of fun and it gives people who havnt seen other games an interesting insight...

here is last years DR4 brownlow results. if you were really interested you could of search the forums yourself. perhaps you could go and get us a list of the 2006 brownlow results so we can compare them?

2006 DR4 Brownlow

I've enjoyed doing the count this year, and I hope you have all enjoyed the weekly update. Cheers.

FINAL RESULT

($14) B. Johnson – 27

($9) S. Goodwin – 26

($2.35) A. Goodes – 25

($NA) P. Bell – 22 **

($4.50) S. West – 21

($5.50) C. Judd – 20

($18) N. Riewoldt – 19

($151) B. Hall – 19

($71) C. Bruce – 18

($751) P. Chapman – 18

($17) N. Dal Santo – 17

($8) B. Cousins – 16

($NA) B. Fevola – 16 **

($NA) B. McLean – 15 **

($61) M. Pavlich – 15

you will notice his line too 'hope you enjoyed it'. this is about fun, not about being perfect or right...

[deanox 9,915]

and here are a few of DR4's bets from last year

$20 on Bruce to win at $41 - pays $820.

$10 on Johnson to win at $31 - pays $310.

$10 on Johnson to place at $8.50 - pays $85

$10 on Chapman for top 5 at $41 - pays $410.

[Arem 0]

I have no problem with someone doing there own brownlow for personal enjoyment.

What i do have a problem with, is posting it here and then suggesting people place bets based on the results. There's absolutely no logic behind finding value by watching each game, and taking down your own votes. The above 2 posts seem to support this. I can't for the life of me work out how a profit was made last year given those bets.

I just don't want people to be sucked in. The Brownlow count is extremely unpredictable, and using someone's own count as a guide will only lead to trouble.

[deanox 9,915]

I have no problem with someone doing there own brownlow for personal enjoyment.

What i do have a problem with, is posting it here and then suggesting people place bets based on the results.

take a few moments of your time and read back through this thread. no one is saying that this is going to be right. but it is as much a guide as the herald sun or the age player of the year comps. and in this case a single person has watched all the games, reducing the error, but perhaps more subjective.

no one is telling you to put your life savings on it. in fact the only line about betting was in response to another poster querying the odds.

if you dont like the thread, or you dont like betting, dont read it.

[dees_rule_4eva 22]

Geez, havent my Brownlow threads caused some friction in the last few weeks??

Arem, I have never suggested anyone put a bet on the count based on my estimation. I only suggested it to BrownlowBruce based on a question he asked. I do this Brownlow count for fun, I really enjoy comparing myself to the umpires and seeing if I can get an insight. I am an umpire myself so its interesting to see. If you don't like what I'm doing, then don't read it as Deanox said. Overall I have received plenty of positive feedback on the threads from senior posters, which is why I continue to update the forum.

As for those bets you see, I was going halves with a mate on them, so I only spent $25 there. What I didnt mention last year was that I won a raffle at my local tennis club that handed me $2,000. With that, I decided to plunge $150 on Goodes to win. You only live once right? $150 at $2.35 = $352.50

Well I apologise, it looks like I may have exaggerated my winnings ... only profited $150ish.

Not sure why I feel compelled to explain myself however. If you don't like it, don't click on the thread - pretty simple.

[Coxy 0]

Thanks for your thoughts, you have confirmed my thinking to back bartel for the win/place and take pavlich as a place

Cheers

[Deelicious9 0]

Geez, havent my Brownlow threads caused some friction in the last few weeks??

Arem, I have never suggested anyone put a bet on the count based on my estimation. I only suggested it to BrownlowBruce based on a question he asked. I do this Brownlow count for fun, I really enjoy comparing myself to the umpires and seeing if I can get an insight. I am an umpire myself so its interesting to see. If you don't like what I'm doing, then don't read it as Deanox said. Overall I have received plenty of positive feedback on the threads from senior posters, which is why I continue to update the forum.

As for those bets you see, I was going halves with a mate on them, so I only spent $25 there. What I didnt mention last year was that I won a raffle at my local tennis club that handed me $2,000. With that, I decided to plunge $150 on Goodes to win. You only live once right? $150 at $2.35 = $352.50

Well I apologise, it looks like I may have exaggerated my winnings ... only profited $150ish.

Not sure why I feel compelled to explain myself however. If you don't like it, don't click on the thread - pretty simple.

So the only way you really made a profit was by putting a reasonable size bet on the favourite because that's what the papers/media said, not you. I could have won more than you be simply picking up the paper the morning of the brownlow and putting $150 on whoever was the favourite, without watching a minute of game time.

P.S. What i've noticed about the votes you give this year and last is that you always vote too high for the "guns". I think you look out for the big names too much which is why you give alot of the well known players more votes than they actually end up with. Just a thought.

[Madness 44]

what did u end up with mate? Boomer surely got the 3 in the last round, dunno bout garry though.