WJ's Preview - Melbourne v Collingwood

[Demonland 72,176]

THE TURN OF A FRIENDLY CARD by Whispering Jack

Brad Green's game against the Adelaide Crows last Saturday was just sensational. He made the most of his return to the midfield to surpass anything he had previously achieved in the red and blue colours. His contribution to the side's unexpected victory over an Adelaide team set to make an impact on the AFL finals again this season was exceptional. Almost as good as it gets. However, I was equally impressed with his statement after the game when he uttered those beautiful words: "we're still in the race for the eight."

I personally loved this comment although admittedly I also found it hard to suppress a little giggle when I read his words embedded in Adam Cooper's article on melbournefc.com.au.

"We're still in the race for the eight."

Green's optimism and self-belief was enough to bring warmth and joy to my heart because it rekindled memories of bygone days; of a time some two or three decades ago when you reached a certain stage of a season and you knew your team was a long way out of contention but you held onto your dreams and religiously followed time worn adages about the "mathematical possibility" of making the finals.

Most of the time that hope was illusory but you felt that by simply following another football cliché and you took things one week at a time there was an ever so slim chance that your team might somehow slip into the finals if luck fell its way. Like some desperado with a poor poker hand and few chips left in front of him (and therefore a very slight mathematical possibility of winning), you waited for the turn of a friendly card.

The friendly card finally did turn Melbourne's way twenty years ago in 1987 when the Dees stormed home to win the last six home and away games on end. They fell into the final five and once there, went on to taste finals victory after a twenty-three year drought on no less than two occasions. The fairy tale only came to an end when tragedy struck in the form of a last minute infringement by a young Jimmy Stynes that resulted in the after siren Buckenara goal that cost the team victory in the preliminary final. The following year, they played off in a grand final.

These days things are different. You need more than luck and mathematical possibility to achieve success in the highly competitive AFL and Melbourne is a long way further back than the 6-10 Demons of '87. Nobody in the history of the game has ever managed to come from anywhere near 0-9 to make the finals. Long ago and far away, nine games were half of a home and away season. This week's Round 11 clash marks the half way point. We might be midway through our winter of discontent but thanks to Brad Green, a tiny spark has been rekindled.

Of course I will always have a problem with this "mathematically possible" scenario. After all, the team is five games plus percentage out of the top eight after ten rounds. As Green so rightly pointed out, the Demons will have to win at least 11 of the 12 remaining games and even if there are some allegedly easy games in that dozen you need to ask what is an easy game when you've only managed to win once in almost half a season?

The real question is whether Melbourne is capable of turning everything around on its head and performing better than even the most optimistic of the pundits predicted it would when looking at the club's prospects before the start of the season?

The answer could well depend on how the Demons fare on the injury front for the remainder of the season after its well documented problems in the first half. Writing in yesterday's Herald Sun, Mike Sheahan made the point that the Demons are facing their moment of truth.

He rightly asked whether injuries were an excuse, an explanation or a cop-out in football and pointed out that "the Demons are averaging four changes a week, with most of them compulsory," while, at the other end of the scale, top side West Coast and fifth placed Adelaide average the fewest changes with 1.3 a week. Those figures reinforce the long-held view that a settled team is more likely to be successful.

That being the case, it's not only mathematically but physically and mentally possible for Melbourne to double its winning run this week against Collingwood because, for the first time this season, the Demons are likely to go into the game with no forced changes. Adem Yze's inclusion will be a plus for them given Collingwood's past inability to counter Adem Yze in Queens Birthday games. The fact that they are able to carry names like Brown, Miller, Pickett and Whelan at Sandringham is proof that things are getting better. On the other hand, the Magpies go into the game without key defenders Jimmy Clement and Simon Prestigiacomo and with Anthony Rocca and Heath Shaw under injury clouds.

So the signs are positive for Melbourne on this front at least for the first time in 2007 and although it would be a stretch to think that the club could possibly string together enough consecutive victories to even draw within sight of the finals, it's something we can dream about on this long weekend.

Before anyone gets carried away about the "mathematical possibility" theory, I have to add a further word of warning. I'm not a mathematician so I decided to consult the closest thing I know to mathematical genius - Demonland's resident mathematics expert, Sam the Stats Man. After feeding all of the relevant data into his computer, Sam's conclusion was that the real odds of Melbourne making the finals from the position it currently occupies are roughly around 4,096 to 1 which means the Brad Green scenario of a Melbourne appearance in this season's AFL finals will remain little more than a dream for a while.

In the meantime of course, we need to keep our feet firmly on the ground and take it all in the same way it has always been done in football - one week at a time!

THE GAME:

Melbourne v. Collingwood at the MCG - 11 June 2007 at 2.10pm

HEAD TO HEAD:

Overall: Melbourne 78 wins Collingwood 136 wins 4 draws

At the G: Melbourne 53 wins Collingwood 69 wins

Since 2000: Melbourne 4 wins Collingwood 3 wins

The Coaches: Daniher 5 wins Malthouse 4 wins

MEDIA:

TV Channel 10 at 3pm (delayed telecast)

RADIO Triple M 3AW 7774ABC SEN

THE BETTING:

Melbourne to win $2.15 Collingwood to win $1.65

LAST TIME THEY MET: Melbourne 22.9.141 d Collingwood 14.10.94, Round 11, 2006, at MCG.

This was one of Melbourne's finest victories of 2006. The Demons were quick out of the blocks with their ferocious tackling and direct football and by half time they held a five goal lead which was stretched to a resounding 47 point victory over the highly fancied third placed Magpies who boasted a better win-loss record (8-2) than they do in the current season. Cameron Bruce was hot, Aaron Davey was simply too quick and Adem Yze up forward was deadly with four goals.

THE TEAMS:

MELBOURNE

Backs Daniel Ward Nathan Carroll Cameron Bruce

Half backs Paul Wheatley Clint Bizzell Daniel Bell

Centreline Travis Johnstone James McDonald Aaron Davey

Half forwards Brad Green Russell Robertson Simon Godfrey

Forwards Colin Sylvia David Neitz Matthew Bate

Followers Jeff White Brock McLean Nathan Jones

Interchange James Frawley Paul Johnson Ricky Petterd Adem Yze

Emergencies Nathan Brown Simon Buckley Ben Holland

In Adem Yze

Out Nathan Brown

COLLINGWOOD

Backs Tarkyn Lockyer Shane Wakelin Brodie Holland

Half backs Heath Shaw Harry O'Brien Rhyce Shaw

Centreline Scott Pendlebury Paul Medhurst Leon Davis

Half forwards Nick Maxwell Travis Cloke Alan Didak

Forwards Dane Swan Anthony Rocca Ben Johnson

Followers Josh Fraser Shane O'Bree Scott Burns

Interchange Chris Bryan Tyson Goldsack Dale Thomas Alan Toovey

Emergencies Shannon Cox Paul Licuria Danny Stanley

In Chris Bryan Shane Wakelin

Out Simon Prestigiacomo (foot) Guy Richards (omitted)

THE OLD RIVALRY

J. V. McKay wrote last year about the rivalry between Melbourne and Collingwood as follows:-

"A long, long time ago the strongest rivalry in our game was that which existed between Melbourne and Collingwood. For a decade between 1955 and 1964 there wasn't a hotter ticket in town than the one that got you into a game between the Demons and the Magpies. The newspapers would build it up as a gigantic clash between the silver tails and the working classes but it was much more than that. It was THE clash of traditional rivals and the crowds would come to their games in their droves.

"All of those who are old enough to remember will nod their heads and agree, saying 'wasn't that a time?'

"If you're too young or just can't remember, consider this: -

"The two rivals contested five grand finals during that decade including the one in 1956 when Melbourne beat Collingwood in front of a then record crowd of 115,802 to win the premiership flag for a second year in a row, they attracted a home and away record crowd of 99,346 on Queens Birthday, 1958. It's a record that still stands today. Between them, the two sides won 7 out of the 10 premierships on offer. They had some wonderful players too - men like Ron Barassi, Brian Dixon, Laurie Mithen and Frank "Bluey" Adams and Ian Ridley were the Demon heroes while Murray Weideman, Bill Twomey and Ray Gabelich were Magpie stars.

Sure, it was a great time but those days have long gone and it's now time for the teams to rewrite the own histories. At the beginning of the year many good judges put Melbourne down as a top four prospect while Collingwood was considered a likely candidate for an early draft choice. As things have transpired, it's looking the other way around. This year, the Magpies have set the standard and their old rivals are lagging a long way behind. Collingwood has the momentum, the confidence and the winning form and that is probably more important than dissecting individual members of the team or looking at match ups, tactics and strategies.

Nevertheless, a staunch Magpie fan told me today that he felt this was a danger game for his club but that they would win because of their stronger midfield. He mentioned names like Burns, O'Bree, Lockyer and the younger brigade of Thomas, Pendlebury and Swan. Hmmm...

I'm willing to match them with Brock McLean, now in his third game back from injury, Nathan Jones, Cam Bruce, Travis Johnstone, Green, McDonald and a couple of the others. In the big man department, the Pies have struggled with their rucks for years and I can't see any change in that when they take on Jeff White and the improving Paul Johnson.

I like Melbourne's forward set up now that David Neitz, Russell Robertson, Matthew Bate and Colin Sylvia are all together in the same team. A couple of them are ready to fire and the fact that this coincides with a weakening in Collingwood's defensive capacity, could tip the balance in favour of the Demons.

At the other end of the ground, one duel that will be of enormous interest will be Daniel Bell on Alan Didak. Last year, Didak wasted Bell early and set back the young defender's season as he was banished to Sandringham for more than a month and a half in the wake of his poor form that day. Fast forward a year later and Bell is playing with strength, confidence and poise. He's much more aware of what's needed to mind a quality opponent and won't give any latitude to the clever Magpie forward. If Bell can hold his own in this contest, then the Demons will have turned over another friendly card in their week by week quest to find some redemption from what has been a sad and sorry season to this point in time.

Melbourne by a whisker - 1 point.

[dees_rule_4eva 22]

Great preview WJ. One of the best of the year.

[Deelusioned 0]

Thanks, very enjoyable read - better to dream than no dreams at all...

[Dee*ceiving 1,674]

That was terriffic WJ. thoroughly enjoyed

[Yze_Magic 3]

Good job, WJ

Almost as good as my game previews

You are improving son!

[NO MERGER 20]

Goosebumps just reading it...slim chance is enough for me to see the Dees of '87 back in '07... well written.

Go Demons.

[Jaded No More 68,910]

Almost as good as my game previews

You mean the ones where you declare us winners by 90 points, and blow your load over the thought of Sylvia kicking a bag?

Yep, those are quality

By the way, since you love Judd and Sylvia so much, would you be willing to trade Sylvia to get Judd?

[beelzebub 23,353]

I'll see your one point and raise it to two goals in a fast finishing game !!

I'll be right up front. i dont share Brads unbridled optimism re the rest of the season, let alone september. However we will win some and the gut feeling I have is Monday is one of them.

This is as close to a final as we wil probably attend this year. It is our most archest of enemies. It is a chance for some to carry themselves with pride in fornt on the big stage and vanquish a few personal demons.

If last weeks game was seen as either an anomoly or abberation at best, then this Mondays game might be looked back upon as the day when some decided that the future brand of Melbourne footy needed to be displayed. it may only be a relative glimpse in the context of a season but it will be a spark. Dynamite only needs a spark :-)

Im really looking forward to this battle. I think we will best Collingwood at the centre hit outs...it will just depend on who sharks best and affords their team first use.

I dont underestimate the filth. They are playing OK and winning, a bit ugly at times without a great deal of polish.

Well Pies youre about to get tarnished even more !! :-)

Go Dees

[demonfanjezza 1]

Very nice jack- enjoyed that

Keep up the great work

[Pates 9,660]

A goal after the siren from Nietz to give Melbourne an extremely enjoyable (heartbreaking for Pies fans) one point win over the old enemy. The thought of that just gives me goosebumps.

Top preview WJ.

[tooly 0]

Did that take you all year to do? Took me about an hour to read well done.

[DemonDoug 0]

Most enjoyable preview, that will keep me going all weekend, I will be there Monday cheering for the Dee's, the team is settled, the key players are back and match hardended, the opposition is tough, this week we will see the true measure of the MFC, I just hope they make us proud.

[beelzebub 23,353]

well if people want a 'real ' cinderella finish..

in the dying moments, with scores tied, Holland becomes another in the now long line of 'whack the back' of Godders. even the umps didnt miss this one and award gods a free in the bad pocket. Siren sounds, Neeta wanders over and claps God's back with an all but inaudible "put them to the knife !!'". Gods lines up and kicks as true as he knows, the ball sailing towards an unlikely goal only to strike the paintwork. The crowd erupts, some happy some not!! One man has a wry grin on his face.

Possibly as WJ predicts..Dees by a point after all :-))

[deeangel 2]

A good read preview. You can all have your last minute goal scenarios- I have had enough close matches and will be looking for a comfortable 30 point win. After enduring the Crows coming at us feeling in the pit of my stomach I want to relax in the last quarter.

I want to enjoy Monday. Brock, Bate, Sylvia and Jones etc to show the footy world our future stars and the old tribe to play their best games for the season.

I also don't want to see ND stressed to the max in the coaches box on my screen!

[rumpole 515]

A good read preview. You can all have your last minute goal scenarios- I have had enough close matches and will be looking for a comfortable 30 point win. After enduring the Crows coming at us feeling in the pit of my stomach I want to relax in the last quarter.

I want to enjoy Monday. Brock, Bate, Sylvia and Jones etc to show the footy world our future stars and the old tribe to play their best games for the season.

I also don't want to see ND stressed to the max in the coaches box on my screen!

I was watching the Essendon v West Coast game last night and was thinking after the teams slugged it out how the Bombers have had a good run in tight matches in recent weeks. They've won three close ones against Richmond, Sydney and West Coast and there but for fortune could easily have lost every one. On the other hand, Melbourne lost to Port Adelaide, Bulldogs and Kangaroos by a goal or less. Here's my "what if scenario" if you could reverse those close games. This would be the current ladder:

West Coast 9 wins 2 defeats 0 draws 126.7% 36 pts

Geelong 7 3 0 155.0 28

Hawthorn 7 3 0 115.3 28

Collingwood 7 3 0 106.8 28

Sydney 6 4 0 114.6 24

Adelaide 6 4 0 108.5 24

Port Adelaide 5 5 0 99.9 20

Kangaroos 5 5 0 98.2 20

-----------------------------

Western Bulldogs 4 5 1 95.7 18

Brisbane 4 5 1 95.0 18

Essendon 4 7 0 104.9 16

Fremantle 4 6 0 97.0 16

St. Kilda 4 6 0 86.3 16

Melbourne 3 6 1 75.7 14

Carlton 3 7 0 82.0 12

Richmond 1 8 1 72.1 6

We'd only be one and a half games out of the eight instead of five. I think it's arguable that given just an average run with injuries instead of our horror run and we might have picked up those extra games. Thinking back on them, we might have picked up the points with a few umpiring decisions going our way as well.

The flip side is that this situation would make Melbourne's chances of getting a priority pick in this year's drat almost a mathematical impossibility.

[45HG 1,539]

Here's how we'd look if we won every game - Melbourne 10-0.

But yeah, I see your point and it is very true, a very even competition where only a tiny % lacking in performance can cost you, the biggest thing standing in our way and realistically being able to give the finals a crack.

[BrownlowBruce 1]

Here's how we'd look if we won every game - Melbourne 10-0.

But yeah, I see your point and it is very true, a very even competition where only a tiny % lacking in performance can cost you, the biggest thing standing in our way and realistically being able to give the finals a crack.

Season of lack in performance, lacking in fit players... the what if's don't matter anymore.

Hopefully we can have a crack at the second half of the season.

[Demon Head 273]

Season of lack in performance, lacking in fit players... the what if's don't matter anymore.

Hopefully we can have a crack at the second half of the season.

I agree that if we have a real crack there are about 7 or 8 more games to won. That probably won't get us higher than 11th or 12th but would at least regain some respect after the first half fiasco.

Can't buy 11 out of 12 and I have a feeling that with our pathetic percentage to date, even that might not be enough.

[gOLLy 401]

Love your work. hair is standing up on my neck. Getting in ealry to enjoy some soup

COME ON DEEZ!

[Deeman 1,497]

Love your work. hair is standing up on my neck. Getting in ealry to enjoy some soup

COME ON DEEZ!

Could be a late change to the Collingwood line up tomorrow with Danny Stanley not playing for Williamstown today.

[davey_magik 1]

Could be a late change to the Collingwood line up tomorrow with Danny Stanley not playing for Williamstown today.

Heath Shaw?

Was said to be in doubt all week.

[beelzebub 23,353]

I'll see your one point and raise it to two goals in a fast finishing game !!

Go Dees

Go Dees..... you gunna give me the extra point ?

[Whispering_Jack 30,046]

Go Dees..... you gunna give me the extra point ?

Damn, I went a bit conservative. Fortunately for me Robbo missed a few, otherwise I might have been out by about 5 or 6 goals.

[NO MERGER 20]

After today's efforts....still mathematically possible

Go Demons!

[Whispering_Jack 30,046]

After today's efforts....still mathematically possible

Go Demons!

Exactly!

According to Sam the Stats Man's computer, the odds of Melbourne making the finals from the position it currently occupies has now been slashed to a little over 2,000 to 1. Mind you, I wouldn't be booking any tickets to the finals just yet.