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Trade Rumours 2023


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3 hours ago, drdrake said:

It wasn't just Grundy for 11 it was Grundy and our pick 25, even swap pick 33 for pick 44.

Yep i got that. But Sydney would look to get it all done without that pick even coming into the equation. They'd be stupid if they put that up.

The only way i could see Pick 11 being traded is if they could split the pick and move into 2024 draft i.e. WCE 2nd round pick(20) and their F1. But doubt there would be many suckers willing to do that trade for pick 11, so its unlikely.

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18 hours ago, ANG13 said:

I know this is a rumour thread but sorry I have to address the midfield talk. I love the input both binman and his pa put into this forum and yes we have a very good midfield and yes you could argue that our best four our the best.  But I for one don’t just look at four players as a midfield and for me when you include the wings and some rotations our midfield is not the best. Collingwood’s midfield is / was better than ours this year, their disposal efficiency in particular is much better than ours and they have a better balance and have smarter players than ours. 
 

Coll Disp Eff     Kick Eff     Hand B Eff

ND      75.1        69.2           81.5

JDG    71.1         61.1            81.6

SP       73.6       68.5           79.3

JC       71.5        61.9           82.4

JD       71.2        64.6          79.5

DC      67.5        53.2          85.5

TM      72.9       60.8          80.5

SS       67.1        61.1            76.9

Av        71.25     62.55        80.9

Melb

CP       66.8       55             78.8

CO       67.2       52.2          817

MG       61.6      50.9           78.5

JV         61         49.5           73

AB        73.4      66              81

TS        70.1        58.7           83.5

EL         72.2       63.2          83.5

LH         66.4       56.5          79.6

Av          67.34     56.51         79.95

Our midfielders kicking is miles off that of Collingwood’s, six out of eight of their core midfield group average over 60% we have two and JV didn’t even average 50%  

Our midfield is very good but it needs improving from both personal and coaching to maximise our strengths  

 

Great post. Some reflections on it:

How a midfield is defined is a semantic exercise to a degree. 

But i think its a stretch to include the wingers given it is such a specialist position and don't really get involved at center clearances and around the ground stoppages - other than being an outlet distributor option. 

For example in your list above Sidebottom, Hunter and Langdon didn't attend any centre bounces all season (Sidebottom might have attended 2 or 3).

Josh Daicos was also a winger (an AA winger at that) and only attended centre bounces when his brother went out of the team.

You'll get no argument from me that Sidebottom and Josh Daicos are better kicks than Hunter and Langdon and were more impactful this year. 

You left out arguably their best mid, Taylor Adams, who attended 40% of all the Pies centre bounces over the season.

Adams only averaged 52% by foot, which is in part a function of being an extractor and often kicking under pressure (something that makes Mitchell's 60% by foot super impressive given he is also an extractor).

If you take out Sidebottom and Josh Daicos and add Adams the pies KE average goes down. 

I would add that of the Pies players you list Nick Daicos played more than half the season at half back flank and Pendlebury also spent large periods behind the ball, as did Crisp, which is a big factor in why their DE is so good (more time and space). 

And you included Max Gawn and Darcy Cameron's as mids. Rucks are not usually considered midfielders, but of course are part of the midfield, so for the sake of this exercise lets include them

So, if you don't include Sidebottom, Josh Daicos, Hunter and Langdon, but DO include Cameron and Gawn, using your metric of including rucks and utilities who roll through the middle as midfielders:

  • The Pies seven mids are: Cameron, Daicos, DeGoey, Pendles, Mitchell, Adams and Crisp (7 AA selections, with pendles having 6 of them)
  • The equivalent seven mids for the dees are: Gawn, Petracca, Oliver, Viney, Brayshaw, Sparrow, and for the sake of argument James Jordon (12 AA selections) 

I 100% agree the Pies seven are better kicks over all than our seven mids.

And i also 100% agree we need to bring in a quality distributor with elite kicking skills and one or two utilities of Bailey and Mcluggage's ilk who can kick goals and reliably hit targets by foot.

I have said as much in several posts of late, including this post in the What's needed in 2024 thread.

In fact I've been banging on about this ever since i started posting on DL 10 plus years ago.

For example, i was strongly in favor of taking Kelly rather than trading pick 3 out and ending up with Salem, Hunt and Tyson instead. And for the same reason i was against trading Watts out.

But kicking efficiency is of course only one metric to determine the relative strength of midfields. And arguably not a particularly useful one. 

From the 14 players listed above the top four for average:

  • center clearances per game are (in order): Oliver, Viney, Petraca and Pendles
  • stoppage clearances per game: Oliver, Petracca, Mitchell and Gawn
  • contested possessions per game: Oliver, Petracca, Viney and Gawn
  • metres gained per game: Tracc, Daicos, Oliver and Crisp (nb: Daicos' numbers are inflated by the fact he takes most of their kick outs)
  • score involvements per game: Tracc, Daicos, Oliver and Adams
  • goal assists per game: Adams, Tracc, Pendles, Viney
  • goals per game are: Tracc, Daicos, Adams, Sparrow

Perhaps of most value in terms of determining who has the better midfield is the AFL player ratings, a metric that the industry apparently values very highly.

The top 4 rated players from the 14 listed above are (in order): Tracc, Oliver, Daicos and Gawn.

The upshot of all that is i don't think the numbers support the assertion Collingwood’s midfield is/was better than ours this year. 

Edited by binman
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2 hours ago, Axis of Bob said:

This is the problem with statistics - they mean nothing if you don't know what you're measuring and why/if it's important. The kicking efficiency stat is practically worthless, IMHO, because of what is measures and how it assumes all situations where you kick the ball are the same.

Kicking efficiency is just whether or not a kick finds a team mate or if the kick goes to a contest 40+ metres away. So James Harmes' diagonal kick from the stoppage to Fritsch inside 50 midway through the 3rd quarter of the 2021 GF is judged as being exactly the same as a 40m backwards to a contest between Spargo and Tom Lynch 10m from your own defensive goal. Both kicks = effective. Also a centering kick over your shoulder to the top of the square is only effective if you kicked the ball over 40m, even if you intended it and it is 100% the right kick to do - and a chip backwards to an open player 15m away in defence is effective.

If you look at the top 10 players in disposal efficiency (minimum 10 games) all of them are defenders. Same with the top 20, and 30, and 40 and 50 ...... THE TOP 50 PLAYERS IN DISPOSAL EFFICIENCY IN 2023 ARE ALL DEFENDERS!!!! What are the chances of the top 50 kicks in the league playing in the backline? It goes further .... of the top 100 in disposal efficiency, 95 of them are defenders. The exceptions were Jackson Macrae, Jaspa Fletcher, Matt Johnson, Sam Petrevski-Seton and Eddie Ford.

If you look at that, disposal efficiency is far more a function of where you play and the situation you play in than it is of your ability to kick the football. This is the only real information that you can take from the Collingwood vs Melbourne kicking efficiency statistic: that the two teams play differently and put their midfielders into different situations than each other. 

I'd recommend this excellent article about kicking statistics if you want more information on what good kicking is and how bad kicking/disposal efficiency is as a statistic: How defining what makes a good kick in the AFL is always up for debate - ABC News

 

Excellent point

we beat ourselves up about how poor our disposal efficiency is from Trac Oliver etc but that ignores the pressure they are under

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3 hours ago, Axis of Bob said:

This is the problem with statistics - they mean nothing if you don't know what you're measuring and why/if it is important.

 

Congratulations Axis of Bob, a pleasure to read a well thought out and logical post.

The current vogue for reams of often dubious data accompanied by near meaningless psycho-footy babble, needs some serious backwash.  

James Harmes’s diagonal foot pass to Bayley Fritisch in the 2021 GF. Rightly deserves legendary status as one quality kick to premiership glory. Efficacy with efficiency seamlessly.

Edited by Tarax Club
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1 hour ago, dazzledavey36 said:

 

If our F1 is on the table then let’s chase picks 6 and 7. 

F1 , 25 and get Pick 10. GCS. 

13 and 23 (Grundy) and 39 (JJ) to Cats for Pick 7.

Try to work out something with GWS for Haynes and Pick 6 for some of their salary cap. Maybe offer them Pick 10 plus they cover half of Haynes  wage.

Take 5,6,7 to the draft. Make sure there are some leftovers or picks that come back to pick up Brown. 

Edited by Gawndy the Great
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20 minutes ago, jnrmac said:

Pick 19 compo  for a guy with 2 x knee recos.

 

Wowza

2 knee recos is irrelevant

value and length of the contract, and other free agency moves this off-season, determine the value of the compensatory pick

i reckon it's basically bang on the money - the fact that the bears, filth, and previously the puddy tatts have all been keen on him sais a lot to me about how highly rated he is by the good teams

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10 minutes ago, Gawndy the Great said:

If our F1 is on the table then let’s chase picks 6 and 7. 

F1 , 25 and get Pick 10. GCS. 

13 and 23 (Grundy) and 39 (JJ) to Cats for Pick 7.

Try to work out something with GWS for Haynes and Pick 6 for some of their salary cap. Maybe offer them Pick 10 plus they cover half of Haynes  wage.

Take 5,6,7 to the draft. Make sure there are some leftovers or picks that come back to pick up Brown. 

The other option is we swap 10 & a 2nd round pick for pick 7.

End of the day we could end up with 3 first rounders, so won't even use the 2nd and 3rd rounds other than to match a bid on Brown.

But if we could do 13 and a 2nd and have picks 5, 7 & 10 that would be amazing.

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My issue with a future first is if we don't get a key forward this year and say GC King is available, we won't have the 2x first rounders likely needed to land him. But club likely knows what it's doing (just like the "forward" thinking approach).

 

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7 hours ago, Tracforever said:

Agree, we gave up a pick in the late 20s for Grundy 12 months ago and there is no way he would demand a pick in the teens now after the season he had.

Was he talking to anyone before we knew about it?

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19 minutes ago, Wunders said:

My issue with a future first is if we don't get a key forward this year and say GC King is available, we won't have the 2x first rounders likely needed to land him. But club likely knows what it's doing (just like the "forward" thinking approach).

 

i remain to be convinced that they're worth that

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1 hour ago, binman said:

Great post. Some reflections on it:

How a midfield is defined is a semantic exercise to a degree. 

But i think its a stretch to include the wingers given they are such specialist positions and really don't get involved at center clearances and around the ground stoppages - other than being an outlet distributor option. 

For example in your list above Sidebottom, Hunter and Langdon didn't attend any centre bounces all season (Sidebottom might have attended 2 or 3). Josh Daicos was also a winger (an AA winger at that) and only attended centre bounces when his brother went out of the team. You'll get no argument from me that Sidebottom and Josh Daicos are better kicks than Hunter and Langdon and were far more impactful this year. 

You left out arguably their best mid, Taylor Adams, who attended 40% of all the Pies centre bounces over the season.

Adams only averaged 52% by foot, which is in part a function of being an extractor and often kicking under pressure (something that makes Mitchell's 60% by foot super impressive given he is also an extractor). 

I would add that from the Pies players you list Nick Daicos played more than half the season at half back flank and Pendlebury also spent large periods behind the ball, as did Crisp, which is a big factor in why their DE is so good (more time and space). 

And you included Max Gawn and Darcy Cameron's as mids. Rucks are not usually considered midfielders, but of course are part of the midfield, so for the sake of this exercise lets include them

So if you don't include Sidebottom, Josh Daicos, Hunter and Langdon, but DO include the rucks, using your metric of including utilities who roll through the middle and rucks as midfielders:

  • The Pies seven mids are: Cameron, Daicos, DeGoey, Pendles, Mitchell, Adams and Crisp (7 AA selections, with pendles having 6 of them)
  • The equivalent seven for the dees are: Gawn, Petracca, Oliver, Viney, Brayshaw, Sparrow, and for the sake of argument James Jordon (12 AA selections) 

I 100% agree the Pies seven are better kicks over all than our seven  mids.

And i also 100% agree we need to bring in a quality distributor with elite kicking skills and one or two utilities of Bailey and Mcluggages ilk who can kick goals and reliably hit targets by foot.

I have said as much in several posts of late, including in this post in the What's needed in 2024 thread.

In fact i've been banging on about this ever since i started posted on DL 10 plus years ago.

For example i was strongly in favor of taking Kelly rather than trading pick 3 out and ending up with Salem, Hunt and Tyson instead. And for the same reason i was against trading Watts out.

But kicking efficiency is of course only one metric to determine the relative strength of midfields.

From the 14 players listed above the top four for average:

  • center clearances per game (in order): Oliver, Viney, Petraca and Pendles
  • stoppage clearances per game: Oliver, Petracca, Mitchell and Gawn
  • contested possessions per game: Oliver, Petracca, Viney and Gawn
  • metres gained per game: Tracc, Daicos, Oliver and Crisp (nb: Daicos' numbers are inflated by the fact he takes most of their kick outs)
  • score involvements per game: Tracc, Daicos, Oliver and Adams
  • goal assists per game: Adams, Tracc, Pendles, Viney
  • goals per game are: Tracc, Daicos, Adams, Sparrow

Perhaps of most value in terms of determining who has the better midfield is the AFL player ratings, a metric that the industry apparently values very highly.

The top 4 rated players from the 14 listed above are (in order): Tracc, Oliver, Daicos and Gawn.

The upshot of all that is i don't think the numbers support the assertion Collingwood’s midfield is/was better than ours this year. 

Not really caring about any other teams players, Petracca should have won the Brownlow by the length of Collingwood's EGOS, give or take a maggot or two....

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2 hours ago, dazzledavey36 said:

 

2 hours ago, Bates Mate said:

3 first round picks for pick 4 is a high price to pay. Proven guns at the start of their career or in their prime are getting 2 1st rounders and streak knive picks/players

I would have thought a pretty good deal for the dogs. They actually only give up two first rounders and some steak knives.

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7 minutes ago, dazzledavey36 said:

Argh.. Collingwood have pulled off another beauty here..

 

Wouldn't have thought a small forward would be high on their priority list given they had Bobby Hill, Jack Ginnivan, Jamie Elliott & Beau McCreery all playing in their GF team.

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