Welcome to Demonland Matthew Jefferson

[RedLegs23 812]

Interesting little grab from Elijah Tsatas on SEN earlier.

Asked by Gerard - in 5 years time from this years picks 11 - 21, who he thinks would be able to break into the top 10 of this years draft.

Tsatas answered "Weddle & Jefferson"

Edited November 29, 2022 by RedLegs23

[picket fence 15,036]

9 hours ago, Pulp Fritschon said:

My initial reaction on the night was negative. Was hoping for George. I just have my doubts Jefferson’s body shape will build up to where it needs to get to as he appears too slight in the shoulders for mine. 

He can certainly mark it. Highlights of his school footy show him playing with a lot more presence when compared to NAB league and VIC Metro which is a positive. 

Tall players are much harder to find and are highly sought after so I guess picking one up at pick 15 they are going to come with some question marks. Certainly fills a glaring list need so I think this is the probably the right pick. If his body can fill out he could make it. 
 

 

Twiggy Dunn says Hi!

[Mach5 4,482]

Interestingly heard Tsatas interviewed on SEN this arvo and when asked (paraphrasing) who would end up being the best of the draft class, he nominated Weddle as an impressive athlete and then Jefferson once he gets his body right. Or something.

[picket fence 15,036]

4 minutes ago, RedLegs23 said:

Interesting little grab from Elijah Tsatas on SEN earlier.

Asked by Gerard - in 5 years time from this years picks 11 - 21, who he thinks would be able to break into the top 10 of this years draft.

Tsatas answered "Weddle & Jefferson"

Yeah well, not short on confidence, Elijah!

[Mach5 4,482]

7 minutes ago, RedLegs23 said:

Interesting little grab from Elijah Tsatas on SEN earlier.

Asked by Gerard - in 5 years time from this years picks 11 - 21, who he thinks would be able to break into the top 10 of this years draft.

Tsatas answered "Weddle & Jefferson"

What he said. Kind of.

[picket fence 15,036]

5 hours ago, deejammin' said:

Welcome Matthew Jefferson! Very excited for this pick although patience will be a virtue. 

I’ve been solely AFLW focused for the last little while so read this whole thread in one go and it makes interesting reading. My overall impression is that many are suffering from MFCSS or not remembering where our club is at. Sure our finals were underwhelming but we were right in both games and with a little luck and one of our best players and Norm Smith medalist not breaking his leg in the first quarter of our first final I’m confident we would’ve been in at least a prelim. The dissatisfaction is a sign we’ve come a very long way, tell me ten years ago that we’d be worried about taking the second best tall forward in the draft after a premiership and a semi-final and I’d have laughed at you. 
 

The comparisons to Cook and Watts are also strange. Both came in at a time where the club was a desperate basket case with few star players, fewer who would get games at the best teams for the time, terrible leadership and culture, a revolving door of coaches, a recruiting and development team that had almost no successes and the worst financial and facility situation in the AFL. Max Gawn was still smoking on the way to training FFS! 
Compare that to now, our development is elite, watching our VFL team for the last few years the improvement in our young draftees is marked, do they always tear their way into the AFL side, no, but go back and compare Woewodin, Turner, Chandler, McVee, Laurie and JVR’s first games this year to their finals campaign, it’s night and day! 
Jefferson will come into an environment with two of the best players in the league (Trac and Clarry) will train against the best defenders in the league (May, Petty, Lever) will watch the best rucks in the league (Gawn, Grundy) and will have to fight his way into a team that had BBB, TMac, JVR, Fritsch, Schache and even Petty all ahead of him as forward options. He’s unlikely to play this year not just because he’s light framed but because there’s at least five forwards a swing man and two rucks ahead of him for KPF spots, and that’s not even including the potential for Smith, Tomlinson to change roles or Melksham to get his round 21-23 form happening. I don’t want to re-open the development vs talent debate but I’d bet that a Watts or Cook coming into this program would get a lot closer to elite AFL standard than they did.

Also I have a problem with the way Sam Weideman is, for the main part, talked about in this thread. He was not a total bust like a Cook, he was an almost. Both our AFL and AFLW premiership teams talk about how important the whole squad is and they mean it! Sam was a huge part of pushing BBB and TMac in 2021 and played a big part in our second place finish this season. His games against Essendon as FF, Brisbane as second ruck and the Bulldogs were ALMOST great. He also wasn’t always a terrible contested mark, he was a confidence player who lost confidence and got the fumbles at AFL level. Go back and watch how many almost marks he had this year. Watch his great contested mark against Freo just on half time when we were dominating in round 11. Go back and watch his first game against Hawthorn, his finals campaign in 2018. Watch his contested marks on Harry Taylor and Mark Blitsavs in our first final in donkeys years in 2018 against Geelong. Sam was almost what we needed, he didn’t quite get there, but he was also a key part of our premiership squad and deserves our respect. 
 

I hope Matt Jefferson is willing to work hard at VFL level this year and is pushing for selection in 2024, then we’ll be looking very good. My player to compare Matt to is Jhye Amiss, similar height and weight, similar attributes, good kicking, good marking, goal sense. Jhye played finals in a key position at AFL level this year. Those writing Matt off on a weight number should take note. Rip it up Jeffers!

 

Best post on this thread.... Period!

PLUS his dad is 199 Cm so he might have a bit more growing left!!

Winner Winner Chicken Dinner!!🤩

Edited November 29, 2022 by picket fence

[RedLegs23 812]

15 minutes ago, Mach5 said:

What he said. Kind of.

Ahh forgot the "in short" disclosure.

[RedLegs23 812]

18 minutes ago, picket fence said:

Yeah well, not short on confidence, Elijah!

Yeah you can hear that

[Lucifers Hero 36,972]

26 minutes ago, RedLegs23 said:

Interesting little grab from Elijah Tsatas on SEN earlier.

Asked by Gerard - in 5 years time from this years picks 11 - 21, who he thinks would be able to break into the top 10 of this years draft.

Tsatas answered "Weddle & Jefferson"

 

21 minutes ago, Mach5 said:

Interestingly heard Tsatas interviewed on SEN this arvo and when asked (paraphrasing) who would end up being the best of the draft class, he nominated Weddle as an impressive athlete and then Jefferson once he gets his body right. Or something.

Lets not get too excited! 

Weddle and Jefferson are the two players drafted 11-21 that were Tsatas' Oakleigh Charges teammates!!  Who else

would he nominate....

[Demonsterative 1,884]

I have to say I have concerns about Jefferson as well. After some reflection, and reading other poster concerns, I believe this is mostly due to our poor forward 50 play this year. Jefferson isn’t the “bull at a gate” forward we believe we need going forward going from our forward entries from this past year type of play, but He will put on size and strength

BUT, 

Fritta is a 50 goal kicking forward the past 2 years, who is not physical. Great in the air and a good ground ball player. He has forward/footy smarts. Similar to Jefferson who is taller.  If Jefferson has the forwards around him, and JVR provides a very different type, he could provide the multi faceted forward line we need. 
 

if Jefferson had 6 more kgs to him and was 90 kegs (if 84kgs is correct as some have stated), we would all be excited. 
 

I’m more excited the more I think about it. I like we have recruited two bookends, plus JVR the last year. 

[RedLegs23 812]

3 hours ago, Lucifers Hero said:

 

Lets not get too excited! 

Weddle and Jefferson are the two players drafted 11-21 that were Tsatas' Oakleigh Charges teammates!!  Who else

would he nominate....

Yeah wouldn't say excited, but yeah, defs happy to stick with interesting.

Well technically 8 others...

[ThreeOneSix 953]

JT has nailed so many picks in recent years that we can afford to take a punt on a project player with legitimate X factor. JVR looks a player it takes the pressure off. If we nail the Jefferson pick we can set our side up for life after BB and TMAC. Jefferson looks a few years off but every now and then a skinny project player exceeds expectations - Fyfe, Stephenson.

Edited November 29, 2022 by ThreeOneSix

[Palace Dees 1,945]

The concern Jefferson is not suited to our type of forward entry is premature.  Clubs game style constantly evolve. Not only to not be left behind, but also to be less predictable and harder to plan against. Many will say this was our problem in the 2nd half of this season. 

The other main reason is (or should be) to best utilse the strengths of the list at the time. By the time Jefferson is a regular player we will look and play a little differently.  If not, we would have stood still - and that is a bigger concern.

Also, the idea of recruiting only a perceived 'Melbourne' type is locking us into an inflexible game style that will be found out by good game day coaches. We have a good coaching team but game day is probably not their one wood. Mick Stinear showed this year how valuable a tool that is. It starts with planning, recruiting and finally, player buy in. We may look a little different next season,  but that is healthy. 

Edited November 29, 2022 by Palace Dees

[layzie 28,473]

Patience is a virtue. 

[TRIGON 4,710]

20 hours ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

Nice mix of imperial and metric measures. Reminds me of US gas station pricing where they weirdly mix decimals and fractions.

Which Month Day Year did you see that?

[La Dee-vina Comedia 16,380]

2 hours ago, TRIGON said:

Which Month Day Year did you see that?

Just a simple Google image search. I didn't worry about dates. It wasn't the currency of the price that mattered, just the currency of the currency and the way it was displayed. 

[BangBnagBang 518]

[Nascent 7,199]

1 hour ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

Just a simple Google image search. I didn't worry about dates. It wasn't the currency of the price that mattered, just the currency of the currency and the way it was displayed. 

[La Dee-vina Comedia 16,380]

38 minutes ago, Nascent said:

It's not my fault. I demand a "joke font" be installed! (I had thought TRIGON was interested in the price of the fuel, for some untold reason.) 

[58er 5,568]

21 hours ago, Little Goffy said:

He is clearly better than Cadman already. Mile ahead.

Definitely don't rule out MJ being the equal or better than Cadman. They both obviously look like slightly different players but both mighty fine prospects for the next decade and a bit. 

[58er 5,568]

22 hours ago, Demonland said:

 

Good luck Matt MJ Jeffer etc Can't wait to matches start and see you develop in the miighty Red and Blue.  All the best. 

[58er 5,568]

11 hours ago, ThreeOneSix said:

JT has nailed so many picks in recent years that we can afford to take a punt on a project player with legitimate X factor. JVR looks a player it takes the pressure off. If we nail the Jefferson pick we can set our side up for life after BB and TMAC. Jefferson looks a few years off but every now and then a skinny project player exceeds expectations - Fyfe, Stephenson.

Fritta (59) nearly a Normie 

Fritta (55) 

2023??? 60+

[58er 5,568]

On 11/29/2022 at 10:45 AM, Jontee said:

How many goals do we think Jeffo will kick in the last quarter of the GF?

1,2,3,or4.!!!!!!!

Any other questions?

How many Flags will he play in at Melb. ?

[Willy's Warriors 59]

I think a lot of the concerns over Jefferson's height and weight are overblown.

195cm and 84kg isn't that small.  By comparison: 

- Jeremy Cameron was 196cm and 86kg (https://www.afl.com.au/news/58887/jeremy-cameron) on his draft night; 
- Lance Franklin was 197cm and under 90kg on his draft night (https://www.topendsports.com/sport/afl/combine/results-2004.htm)  
- Jedd Busslinger (pick 13 from this draft) is 196cm and 83kg and Cadman (pick 1) is 195cm and 92kg.  
- Sam Darcy (pick 2 from 2021) was 204cm and 75kg on draft night; Mac Andrew (pick 5) was 200cm and 70kg; Josh Gibcus (pick 9) was 196cm and 87kg (see https://www.afl.com.au/news/685788/cal-twomey-s-phantom-form-guide-top-draft-prospects-october-ranking); 
- Jamarra (pick 1 from 2020) was 195cm and 90kg; Riley Thilthorpe (pick 2) was 201cm and 100kg; Logan McDonald was 196cm and 86kg (pick 4); and Denver Grainger-Barrass was 195kg and 78 kg (pick 6) (https://www.afl.com.au/news/527263/cal-twomeys-2020-phantom-draft-top-30-your-clubs-whispers). 

195cm and 84kg seems about right for a key forward in the top 10-15 range.  Looks like forwards with a more developed body usually get taken very early (Cadman, Jamarra, Thilthorpe). 

Jefferson will need time to fill out (as all key position players do).  Even Cadman is unlikely to make a huge impact next year.  That's unfortunate, as we really need another KPF to cover Brown and McDonald (or, even better, complement them).   

I don't think there are many better options available, sadly.  Its hard and expensive to get a genuinely talented KPF on the open market, so you're left with people like Dan McStay or Rory Lobb who are expensive and haven't kicked more than 30 goals in a season. 

It looks like we might have been interested in Humphrey as a tough half forward who is likely to be ready earlier, but that didn't pan out. 

In the circumstances, picking Jefferson may not be ideal, as we will have to wait until he's ready, which won't be next year.  Still, I think its probably the best thing we could have done.  Him and JVR could be the foundation of future success, even if they don't win us a flag next year. 

 

Edited November 30, 2022 by Willy's Warriors

[Axis of Bob 10,154]

3 hours ago, Willy's Warriors said:

I think a lot of the concerns over Jefferson's height and weight are overblown.

I can’t begin to tell you how much I enjoy reading posts which use data and, particularly, references for that data!