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The Run Home

Lucifers Hero
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Lucifers Hero Legend

Lucifers Hero   36,991

Posted
Posted (edited)

We are very well placed to finish top two.  If Adelaide beat Brisbane next week it could even be top of the ladder.  Huge advantage to give us a double chance, Home finals and potentially a Home GF. 

State of  play:

image.png.26a7dee09bc2205adc98141767348c09.png

Comments:

  • The best feature of our last few weeks is that we have played for 4 quarters.  Keep that up and we should win the last 3 games with chances to lift our % further.
  •  Our big win yesterday cost the Bulldogs dearly.  They fell out of the 8 and lost nearly 30%.  But they have very winnable final three games.
  • Big 8 point game coming up for Lions and Crows.  A close game will knock both % back a bit.
  • I reckon the top 4 are set. 
  • Those from 5-9 are making up the numbers, especially Geelong and Richmond who have played very few of the top 4.
Edited by Lucifers Hero
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george_on_the_outer Redleg

george_on_the_outer   6,962

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43 minutes ago, Lucifers Hero said:

We are very well placed to finish top two.  If Adelaide beat Brisbane next week it could even be top of the ladder.  Huge advantage to give us a double chance, Home finals and potentially a Home GF.

 

And both those teams will lose % next week, because one is not going to double the others score and more.  

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WalkingCivilWar Legend

WalkingCivilWar   31,363

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8 minutes ago, george_on_the_outer said:

And both those teams will lose % next week, because one is not going to double the others score and more.  

A draw would be great. 

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Lucifers Hero Legend

Lucifers Hero   36,991

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10 minutes ago, george_on_the_outer said:

And both those teams will lose % next week, because one is not going to double the others score and more.  

3rd dot point in my post said similar.

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Lucifers Hero Legend

Lucifers Hero   36,991

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image.png.8d4f0f7cb8ec45000b2846ac62f6a56a.png

We are closing in on a top 2 finish:  Essendon and Eagles at Casey.  Keep up our recent 4-quarter game and we should win well and build our % further. 

Hoping that Collingwood beat or get close to Brisbane in round 10 lowering their % and give us a crack at top spot!

Ideally top of the ladder finish is best as that team is most likely to host a Home Grand Final.  It would be a massive advantage if that was us. It wouldn't be at Casey so we don't get the Home ground advantage but we would get the home crowd advantage to cheer the team over the line.

And, it is about time an AFLW grand final was in Melbourne!

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BDA Trident

BDA   20,029

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8 minutes ago, george_on_the_outer said:

I can't stomach barracking for the Pies to win ( yes I can if it means we finish top)

rather than thinking of it as barracking for the pies to win, think of it as barracking for the Lions to lose

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BDA Trident

BDA   20,029

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Just watched the Crows Geelong game. Crows scraped home by 2 points.

I don't think the Crows are at the same level this year at all. You can't write them off because they're a champion team but I don't think they can win it. It's us and the Lions I reckon

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Meggs Mighty Demon

Meggs   569

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18 hours ago, BDA said:

Just watched the Crows Geelong game. Crows scraped home by 2 points.

I don't think the Crows are at the same level this year at all. You can't write them off because they're a champion team but I don't think they can win it. It's us and the Lions I reckon

North look awesome this afternoon at Victoria Park against the Pies.  A 5-goal 2nd quarter and up 25 points at HT.  There’s still a half to play though.

Geelong have really improved so not surprised they did well.  Crows are still a threat but agree they are look inferior to the Season 6 version.

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old55 Legend

old55   21,263

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I think we need to finish on top so we have the opportunity obtain a home Grand Final, we don't want to be playing in Brisbane.

At the end of round 9 the situation is:

  • Brisbane: For 490 Against 183
  • MFC: For 440 Against 183

We broadly need to make up  50 points on Brisbane in the final round, which I think is possible.

Brisbane vs Collingwood (5th) at Metricon in Brisbane on Friday night
MFC vs West Coast (16th) at Casey on Saturday

We'll know what the equation is when we play.

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BDA Trident

BDA   20,029

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3 minutes ago, old55 said:

I think we need to finish on top so we have the opportunity obtain a home Grand Final, we don't want to be playing in Brisbane.

At the end of round 9 the situation is:

  • Brisbane: For 490 Against 183
  • MFC: For 440 Against 183

We broadly need to make up  50 points on Brisbane in the final round, which I think is possible.

Brisbane vs Collingwood (5th) at Metricon in Brisbane on Friday night
MFC vs West Coast (16th) at Casey on Saturday

We'll know what the equation is when we play.

finishing top also means we won't play the Crows in the QF. they have regressed this year but still a formidable opponent. Best avoided

Eagles are ordinary and have nothing to play for. Hoping for tranquil conditions at Casey next week and the girls to show no mercy

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poita Redleg

poita   3,573

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Unfortunately the lack of efficiency against St Kilda and North Melbourne has really hurt us, particularly the St Kilda game.

I'd back us in to make up a 5 goal difference against West Coast, but almost 10 goals will be a tough ask.

Collingwood have been found lacking against quality teams, and I'd be surprised if they get within 5 goals of Brisbane. That means we need to win by 80 plus points. 

I think I'd rather get Adelaide in the QF and an easier preliminary final, than vice versa. Then hope that Adelaide can surprise Brisbane on the other side.

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Meggs Mighty Demon

Meggs   569

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8 minutes ago, poita said:

I think I'd rather get Adelaide in the QF and an easier preliminary final, than vice versa. Then hope that Adelaide can surprise Brisbane on the other side.

North are building ominously towards finals and will likely finish 4th (they should defeat Richmond next week).  Their Irish girls are slamming it, Wall is a beast, and Jazzy Garner is (close to) the best player in the league.

If we miss top spot (more likely than not) then Brisbane will have to play North.  The Lions 🦁 may well be surprised.

But we are building nicely too.  Our depth and skills and the evenness of our list has positioned us as genuine Season 7 contenders.  

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