Phantom Drafts Thread 2022

[Matt 424]

30 minutes ago, Freddy Fuschia said:

A lot more will be known when Cal Twomey drops his phantom draft which has been promised for this evening. I don’t know what I’ll be doing first - catch up with the state elections, watch Australia v Tunisia or watch for the Cal Twomey Phantom Draft.

I was going through Cal’s previous years final drafts last night, and while he gets a lot right, he still gets a lot wrong. Even though he’s still the most accurate person, his picks shouldn’t be taken as a lock. Obviously, he is much better with the earlier picks, than later, which is understandable.

Edited November 26, 2022 by Matt

[adonski 9,120]

Has the Poo sliding to the Saints, with us taking the big Jeffer 

[Redleg 37,549]

20 minutes ago, adonski said:

Has the Poo sliding to the Saints, with us taking the big Jeffer 

I am prepared to nearly guarantee, that If not taken by the Bombers, Phillipou will not get past the Hawks.

So I am saying that Cal will be wrong inside the first 6 picks.

[Whispering_Jack 27,958]

6 minutes ago, Redleg said:

I am prepared to nearly guarantee, that If not taken by the Bombers, Phillipou will not get past the Hawks.

So I am saying that Cal will be wrong inside the first 6 picks.

“nearly guarantee” doesn’t count.

[Redleg 37,549]

7 minutes ago, Whispering_Jack said:

“nearly guarantee” doesn’t count.

Fair enough.

Then it’s a certain possibility, or even a possible certainty.

[DeeSpencer 23,090]

47 minutes ago, Redleg said:

I am prepared to nearly guarantee, that If not taken by the Bombers, Phillipou will not get past the Hawks.

So I am saying that Cal will be wrong inside the first 6 picks.

I agree, and I do think trades will come in to it if the order starts to deviate in that 6-10 range. 

[adonski 9,120]

55 minutes ago, Redleg said:

I am prepared to nearly guarantee, that If not taken by the Bombers, Phillipou will not get past the Hawks.

So I am saying that Cal will be wrong inside the first 6 picks.

Looks like we may have a few more teams to throw a couple first rounders at than first thought?

[Matt 424]

I hope one of the following happens:

- Hewett gets picked before us, and someone slides

- WC picks Ginbey, and thinks they can get get Hewett at their third pick, which leads to them picking a different type (Jefferson) at their second pick, leaving us Allan

[Nascent 7,225]

3 hours ago, Matt said:

I hope one of the following happens:

- Hewett gets picked before us, and someone slides

- WC picks Ginbey, and thinks they can get get Hewett at their third pick, which leads to them picking a different type (Jefferson) at their second pick, leaving us Allan

Would be happy with that as well.

I'm alsp hoping for some surprise selections that puts us in the frame to grab either Ginbey or Mackenzie.

Edited November 26, 2022 by Nascent

[Demonstone 19,084]

No surprises from 'The Age' with their take on likely draftees.

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/ultimate-afl-draft-preview-which-players-are-being-looked-at-20221125-p5c18k.html

[Lil_red_fire_engine 10,143]

With so many what ifs still to play out I really hope we just have our list ordered based on player with the highest ceiling and required work ethic and confidence to maximise. If someone slips to a position twice as late as we rated ie: 3rd there at 6, 4 at 8, 5 at 10 etc try to slide up rather than hope they slide through. Then use a similar scenario at from 20 onwards for pick 2. It’s clear not every club will consider but I assume we know the ones worth picking up the phone to at the right time. Use the second pick go for list need to take a tall with forward potential or a runner if we did not take that type with our first.  

[Redleg 37,549]

8 hours ago, Nascent said:

Would be happy with that as well.

I'm alsp hoping for some surprise selections that puts us in the frame to grab either Ginbey or Mackenzie.

Ginbey won’t get past WC.

[Mach5 4,482]

I think we’ve done a great job of convincing everyone (the phantom draft experts) that we’ll take Jefferson, but I’m not expecting it to happen in reality (or for all other clubs to be convinced).

It’s also the lazy option for the journos.

[adonski 9,120]

Via the Age, sounds like everyone has NFI what we'll actually do 

The Age revealed on Monday that the Demons, always one of the most aggressive traders, were considering flipping a future first-round selection for the Giants’ No.19. They are being strongly linked to 195-centimetre forward Matt Jefferson, but several rival clubs would not be surprised to see them go in another direction. One name that is coming up as an alternative option is Jakob Ryan, while WA bolter Ed Allan - son of ex-Hawk and Docker Ben - and richly talented mid-sized forward Brayden George are other possibilities. George will miss all next season recovering from an ACL rupture and Melbourne’s first pick might be a tad early for him. The Dees also need another ruckman - more so a developing one - even after securing Brodie Grundy as Luke Jackson’s replacement. Is the draft’s top big man, Harry Barnett, who Melbourne have in mind if they can score pick 19? South Australian key forward Isaac Keeler is one player the Demons might consider at No.37.

[Matt 424]

It’s interesting, last year at this time, Cal had us taking Blake Howes at our first pick (19), with no mention of JVR as an option.

[Nascent 7,225]

1 hour ago, Redleg said:

Ginbey won’t get past WC.

Most likely, that's why it would be a nice surprise if he did. He could even go as early as the Suns pick 5.

However, despite Twomeys prediction I don't think Allan makes it to their second pick so they will have a decision to make there. Wouldn't rule us out of moving up a few selections to get ahead of West Coast second pick as well.

Edited November 27, 2022 by Nascent

[cantstandyasam 700]

2 hours ago, Lil_red_fire_engine said:

With so many what ifs still to play out I really hope we just have our list ordered based on player with the highest ceiling and required work ethic and confidence to maximise. If someone slips to a position twice as late as we rated ie: 3rd there at 6, 4 at 8, 5 at 10 etc try to slide up rather than hope they slide through. Then use a similar scenario at from 20 onwards for pick 2. It’s clear not every club will consider but I assume we know the ones worth picking up the phone to at the right time. Use the second pick go for list need to take a tall with forward potential or a runner if we did not take that type with our first.  

I used to think Josh Mahoney was the brains behind how we traded up in any draft, but I realise it wasn't just him, Tim Lamb must be behind it because we keep doing it and doing it well

Edited November 27, 2022 by cantstandyasam

[Lil_red_fire_engine 10,143]

I do get the sense like others that the only thing they all have right is we have looked to climb the order. Outside that I reckon its generally guess work on need or who they have heard we have interviewed (which would be many). JT certainly has a track record of not going with convention and not being afraid to back in what he sees vs the general school of thought. I am ready for anything including even if top sliders occur us going early with someone generally touted to go in the Sydney, GWS, Collingwood late teen/early 20 zone like George, Ryan or Barnett. 

[Nascent 7,225]

2 minutes ago, Matt said:

It’s interesting, last year at this time, Cal had us taking Blake Howes at our first pick (19), with no mention of JVR as an option.

Indeed, I think he went 9/9 for the first picks then was a bit more hit and miss. West Coast selected Chesser at 12 where Cal had him going at pick 24 while he predicted Matthew Johnson, who was highly rated and invited to draft night, to go at pick 10. He didn't get selected until pick 21 which was the first pick of the second round. I wonder what this year's "curve ball" will be?

 

 

[Demons11 6,404]

I really hope we get Allan 

[Pennant St Dee 11,250]

15 hours ago, Matt said:

I hope one of the following happens:

- Hewett gets picked before us, and someone slides

- WC picks Ginbey, and thinks they can get get Hewett at their third pick, which leads to them picking a different type (Jefferson) at their second pick, leaving us Allan

I’d be really happy to get either Allen or Hewitt 

[Matt 424]

7 minutes ago, Demons11 said:

I really hope we get Allan 

I think we might trade up to get him. I wonder what we would be prepared to pay. I would think we would have to trade away a fair bit. If we rated him top 5, could we part with two 1st rounders?

[Demons11 6,404]

56 minutes ago, Matt said:

I think we might trade up to get him. I wonder what we would be prepared to pay. I would think we would have to trade away a fair bit. If we rated him top 5, could we part with two 1st rounders?

I have no doubt they are trying to get Carlton’s pick.  I think they might have to stump up 2. 

Edited November 27, 2022 by Demons11

[adonski 9,120]

Grabbing one of the highly touted mids while retaining 13 for one of Jeffer or JaKob would be ideal 

[Matt 424]

1 hour ago, Demons11 said:

I have no doubt they are trying to get Carlton’s pick.  I think they might have to stump up 2. 

To take Allan?