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Demons will win the flag in 2022.


Deenooos_
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Here’s to a little more of a positive outlook.

The dees can definitely still win the flag this year. Imo we have started rounding the corner with our form over the past few weeks depsite what some might think. We have much to look forward to.

R19 Loss - 10 point loss against a plucky and revengeful dogs outfit, played some good footy against them.

R20 Win - 46 point win over a strong dockers outfit on their home deck, back to our defensive best.

R21 Loss - 7 point loss to a momentum riding pies outfit. Dominated all areas of the game, the pies are riding a wave of extreme momentum but the footy they’re playing is not necessarily convincing.

Keep the faith fellow supporters, we have so much talent and the next few years to look forward to; JVR, Laurie, Chandler, Howes and Bedford all potential gun players, plus whoever else we pick up along the way. 

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We can win the flag. Goody in the post-match presser looked angry, so did Viney  in an interview after the loss. There’s no more room for error and they realise that. There’s not much gap between the top 4-5 teams this season, our best is the best by far and we just have to get it back. 
A poll would be interesting.

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We coughed up an important game to a hated rival. My weekend has been ruined. I hope that loss stung the boys because it really stung me.

There are a number of factors but I think our attitude is not quite right. We need to rediscover and bring the manic intent that won us the flag last year. If we do that I don't think anyone can stop us. And I'll also say Max is a super captain, I love him, but I think we need more of Jack Viney's bloody minded leadership style right now. 

Get your mind on the job Dees and get it done. No more stuff-ups

Go Dees

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1 minute ago, Dee Viney Intervention said:

I can only hope so. As great as it was lifting the cup last year it wasn’t here and your core of supporters couldn’t be there or celebrate it unless you were prepared to risk doing time in the McGowan daycare centre. I want to see my team Melbourne, win the grand final in Melbourne.

You might have to wait till 2023. 

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40 minutes ago, Dee Zephyr said:

We can win the flag. Goody in the post-match presser looked angry, so did Viney  in an interview after the loss. There’s no more room for error and they realise that. There’s not much gap between the top 4-5 teams this season, our best is the best by far and we just have to get it back. 
A poll would be interesting.

Not only did he look angry but extremely confident and full of belief when asked the question if we could still do it. They know they're better than this, and I think this loss to the pies has really angered everyone involved in the club. This will reignite us.

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Our best WILL beat anyone, including Geelong. 
 

Finally saw some real anger and disappointment in Goodwin.  The supporters are even angrier.   Will repeat that it’s not necessarily the personal changes and whether it’s Sparrow, ANB, Chandler or Bedford.  From the Pies loss, the following changes are needed: 
 

Outs.  
1. stop Overhandballing.  It drives me crazy.  We often go around in circles.  More often to players under pressure.  
Dees 200 kicks 210 handballs (pies 200 kicks 100 handballs ).  Often we handballed when free and running, straight to a player under pressure.  Fix it now.  Reference example - Jacko to ANB in last qtr. Guess what tackle and turnover.  
2. Stop Kicking to the deep forward pocket - WTF. We target the hardest spot to convert from. That’s a reason why our conversion is so low.  (Kick to advantage and the “hot spot” … that’s why it’s called the hotspot). And of course those stupid “bomb” sky high kicks that go 50 metres in the air 
3. Goalkicking Accuracy must improve. Now. Missing easy chances week after week. It doesn’t cost you v lower teams. In a dog fight, it’s often the difference.  Pies created chances and took them. Gawn OMG twice missed simple chances. Salem (at qtr time … unforgivable from 20 metres out). Fritsch snap from 13 metres out. We should have been 7 goals up at 1/2 time. 
4. Stop going wide and wide and slow and kick to a contest.  JJ and Lingers are stars but we don’t always have to go via the cape. (We need to play the corridor more).  We have the runners.  Perhaps we need to examine our poor conversions inside 50 as because we allow other teams to also flood back. No coincidence that our likely scoring is after a Centre bounce. 


ins. 
1. Contested marking in the forward 50 (or at least bringing it to ground) .Brown and Jackson have hardly taken a grab in a contest.  Even on the lead they seemingly fumbled.  

2. Crumbing of the pack in the forward 50 when opportunity arises  -Kozzzzzy looks amazing when it happens but often he’s missing (note to Goodwin - keep kozzzy inside fwd50 at all times, not up the ground) AND tackle not zone off the small rebounding defenders 

our conversion ability will see us rise or fall 

3. Four quarters of footy, not just the 1st half.  Perhaps yes all the above means we keep other sides in the contest. Keep the door open. Our lack of run and fitness is being questioned. Maybe given v Swans, Pies (twice) and Dogs we seemingly had it in control.  Turning up in the second half and playing attacking footy in the last quarter is yet to happen. Switching off in the last quarter was seen even in most of our wins  !! Are we ruthless? Not right now  

4. Getting a “fair go” from the umps (not always in our control but a handy inclusion if available) Really. The Pies got some frees that we simply didn’t. The inconsistency was amazing. Maybe it was the crowd noise. 
 

I’m firmly believe that we have the players, the stars and the ability to win it.  

HOW WE WIN IT

Win the Contested footy 

Win the Clearances 

Win the Centre clearances 

Convert our chances - Goalkicking 

Control the defensive zone

deliver the 1%s (knock ons, Smothers) &!2nd efforts 

Uplift the amount of overlap running 

Stay fit and healthy through the next 7!weeks 

We have the best ruck and midfield combo Gawn, Oliver, Trac, Viney, Gus, Harmesy , Langdon, JJ 

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17 minutes ago, old dee said:

You might have to wait till 2023. 

Think you belong in the why the Dees can’t win the flag thread 

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I'm of the belief we can still win it.

Here are some reasons...

  • Body of work from rounds 1-10.
  • Placement of playing teams in top 8 from Round 11-22, whilst increasing training volume and intensity from Rounds 11-20- gives an appearance (to some) that we cannot win against contending teams.
  • In game injuries to key personnel to structure during loss to Freo, Sydney and Collingwood (QB clash).
  • We're still 3 weeks away from week 1 of the finals (post season/real season). We're not tapering just yet.
  • Two poor losses (under 2 goals mind you) for me are Western Bulldogs and Collingwood. Explanable to more accurate kicking for scores comparable to us - statistically significant differentials to AFL averages...however - agree that the method to force our players to shift away from the gamplan was very well done by those two teams and coaching staff.
  • The last month we have kicked 89.25 points a match, so my belief is scoring/forward line isn't an issue as much as people are making out, due to a desire to have a traditional full forward style - perhaps referencing the Geelong setup. The spread of our scoring  options - stacks up in finals.
  • With two losses to teams that have kicked over 100 points within the last month, I'm unclear that it's a structural problem. 24 to 21 scoring shots vs Collingwood with an opponent accuracy of 71% for goals, and 25  to 23 scoring shots  vs Bulldogs for an accuracy of 74%. That would comfortably be ahead of the AFL average, would I would suggest is mid to high 50's% - and happy to have that confirmed/corrected.

 

Edited by Engorged Onion
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10 minutes ago, Engorged Onion said:

I'm of the belief we can still win it. I believe it will be Geelong and Melbourne final.

Here are some reasons...

  • Body of work from rounds 1-10.
  • Placement of playing teams in top 8 from Round 11-22, whilst increasing training volume and intensity from Rounds 11-20- gives an appearance (to some) that we cannot win against contending teams.
  • In game injuries to key personnel to structure during loss to Freo, Sydney and Collingwood (QB clash).
  • We're still 3 weeks away from week 1 of the finals (post season/real season). We're not tapering just yet.
  • Two poor losses (under 2 goals mind you) for me are Western Bulldogs and Collingwood. Explanable to more accurate kicking for scores comparable to us - statistically significant differentials to AFL averages...however - agree that the method to force our players to shift away from the gamplan was very well done by those two teams and coaching staff.
  • The last month we have kicked 89.25 points a match, so my belief is scoring/forward line isn't an issue as much as people are making out, due to a desire to have a traditional full forward style - perhaps referencing the Geelong setup. The spread of our scoring  options - stacks up in finals.
  • With two losses to teams that have kicked over 100 points within the last month, I'm unclear that it's a structural problem. 24 to 21 scoring shots vs Collingwood with an opponent accuracy of 71% for goals, and 25  to 23 scoring shots  vs Bulldogs for an accuracy of 74%. That would comfortably be ahead of the AFL average, would I would suggest is mid to high 50's% - and happy to have that confirmed/corrected.

 

Ah ,so you have it on good authority, rather  than  the desperation of imagination, that we " loaded" for 10 rounds .

What's more though  we look like missing out on the double chance we are so confident that we are still tapering off.

Don't want to give  Goodys famous left field coaching moves away just yet eh?

What I will give you about Friday ( the last game is relevant at this time of year) is that Petty played his worst game of his banged up year and was possibly the difference between winning and losing.

Good on you.

Edited by IRW
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7 minutes ago, IRW said:

Ah ,so you have it on good authority, rather  than  the desperation of imagination, that we " loaded" for 10 rounds .

What's more though  we look like missing out on the double chance we are so confident that we are still tapering off.

Don't want to give  Goodys famous left field coaching moves away just yet eh?

Good on you.

Thanks for the input there @IRW .

For clarifications sake - you don't load continuously for 10 rounds, the process is far more nuanced than that.

What happens, is that there is significant increase in volume - let's say rounds 11-13, plateau for 2 weeks, increase from THAT new baseline and go for greater volume again, let's say 17-19 and plateau, and perhaps squeeze another step up in volume 3-4 weeks out from the post season.

Hope that clarifies the process away from a notion of 'loading for 3 months straight'. I mean you're right though,  if that was to happen, that'd just be hilariously incompetent by the Performance Manager.

I'm a bit confused by your left field coaching moves comment - could you elaborate?

 

ps: my authority, is having had part of my career working in these environments and having direct links to people who currently work in these environments - particularly in AFL circles. So I get to ask questions about whether things are done the way the used to be done (within a 5 year window) and what evolutions have occurred in the process.

Edited by Engorged Onion
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Another thread derailed by loading back and forth.

Great…

Of course we can win it and can you imagine any supporter base keen to play us anywhere? We are what the media thinks the Tigers are.

We need to adjust our forward setup and what I think is over committing when we have it for long periods in our 50. But we can kick 8 goals in 10 minutes against anyone so of course we can win it. 

But this group plays like they know that, and that is the end of something, not the beginning. 

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1 hour ago, Graeme Yeats' Mullet said:

Win next 2

Play Pies at the G in first finals round.... Win

Prelim

GF

Job done

As much as I'd love to beat them in a final, playing them first round is the [censored] worst for our supporter base. We miss finals and a flag last year due to lockdowns and our first final back will have us scrambling for tickets like rats to crumbs. AFL Members is going to be a brothel. And not a good one.

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7 minutes ago, Engorged Onion said:

Thanks for the input there @IRW .

For clarifications sake - you don't load continuously for 10 rounds, the process is far more nuanced than that.

What happens, is that there is significant increase in volume - let's say rounds 11-13, plateau for 2 weeks, increase from THAT new baseline and go for greater volume again, let's say 17-19 and plateau, and perhaps squeeze another step up in volume 3-4 weeks out from the post season.

Hope that clarifies the process away from a notion of 'loading for 3 months straight'. I mean you're right though,  if that was to happen, that'd just be hilariously incompetent by the Performance Manager.

I'm a bit confused by your left field coaching moves comment - could you elaborate?

 

ps: my authority, is having had part of my career working in these environments and having direct links to people who currently work in these environments - particularly in AFL circles. So I get to ask questions about whether things are done the way the used to be done (within a 5 year window) and what evolutions have occurred in the process.

...." left field..." ah I was being sarcastic. Goody seems habitually change/ risk adverse.

Thanks for the clarification re " loading ".

Do you think maybe that the top ten side ( at least) may also have been doing something  similar? Which I think rather negates it as an explanation of the win/loss record post round 10.

Too much David King stats on here,not enough looking at patterns over the season.

Close games results, surrendering leads, kicking accuracy ,defence measured by points against.Injuries to key players.

List depth as shown by new inclusions rather than same old same old.

Observations of plans A and B instituted pre and during game according to circumstances and opposition

That seems relevant and observable to me.

They could win it on Grand Final day if they get there biu I doubt they will.

A Prelim would be an achievement from here

 

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12 minutes ago, IRW said:

Do you think maybe that the top ten side ( at least) may also have been doing something  similar? Which I think rather negates it as an explanation of the win/loss record post round 10.

That's an interesting take, I genuinely come from the opposing view that even if the other top 10 sides have been doing it (and a differing levels of intensity, due to where they thought theyd be, the age profile of their list etc) - it explains fluctuations in form significantly.

Here are the win loss records of the top 8 over the last 5 matches, I could stretch it to 2 months, but not sure where to find it (can't be arsed googling a nice graphic)

Where we may differ, is our views on Geelong playing at Kardinia Park and how much that advantage is to them.

 

Simply, every team is sketchy as [censored]. 🙂

 

Geelong are not due to home ground advantage.

Collingwood are not due to minimal loading.

Sydney are less so due to home ground advantage. (loss against Essendon, win against Freo IN freo - Freo increase training loads??? is a hypothesis, and probably accurate)

 

I'll write some more later :)

803428222_ScreenShot2022-08-07at09_30_18.thumb.png.c5fa25383f06f9040c5bb0c9611fc1f3.png

 

Edited by Engorged Onion
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I’m tired of hearing “we’ve been worked out”, the biggest game in the country that has a stat for just about everything, opposition coaches who’s sole purpose is to analyse other teams and their game plan/s & tactics. Numerous tv shows that have former players and so called media experts that break down passages of play frame by frame. Clubs know what to expect from other clubs, being able to play to your strengths and nullify your opponents for longer is what it comes down to. Injuries, umpires & the bounce of the ball are just part of the game we love. You could also mount a case for our travel the breaks in between games compared to other top 8 sides.

Apparently we also can’t win it because of our record against other top 8 sides this season. There was a post on FB yesterday detailing 5 of our 6 losses. 
 

Freo : lead by 30, lost by 38

Swans : lead by 26, lost by 12

Pies : less by 22, lost by 26

Dogs : lead by 27, lost by 10

Pies lead by 23, lost by 7

We also lost to Geelong by 28 at their home ground, early in the last if Kozi kicks straight scores are level. Geelong kicked a couple of late goals to flatter the scoreboard but we were largely competitive. It was Gawn’s first game back after missing a couple and didn’t take a mark, LJ missed the week before (can’t remember why).

Even after conceding 96 points against the Pies and 110 against the Dogs two weeks earlier were still the no.1 ranked defensive side in the competition. 
 

We can still finish top 4 and from there anything can happen. We need to tidy up our entries inside forward fifty, at times throughout games it looks as though we have but then we revert back to bombing it in, opposition pressure plays it part. Our set shots cost us on Friday night, a number of very gettable shots were missed, as already mentioned on the post game thread we had 24 more inside fwd 50 than the Pies. But our pressure and fwd smarts (small fwds flying for marks when we already have a player in that contest than no one at ground level) has dropped right of allowing the Pies to rebound at ease. Finally the Dogs and Pies disposal whether by hand or foot was fast, low and direct. Both games were fast paced and finals like, our lob handballs and up and under kicks plays into the hands of the opposition giving them time to regroup and then apply tackling pressure.

We can still go back to back and I believe we will. 

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1 hour ago, Engorged Onion said:

I'm of the belief we can still win it.

Here are some reasons...

  • Body of work from rounds 1-10.
  • Placement of playing teams in top 8 from Round 11-22, whilst increasing training volume and intensity from Rounds 11-20- gives an appearance (to some) that we cannot win against contending teams.
  • In game injuries to key personnel to structure during loss to Freo, Sydney and Collingwood (QB clash).
  • We're still 3 weeks away from week 1 of the finals (post season/real season). We're not tapering just yet.
  • Two poor losses (under 2 goals mind you) for me are Western Bulldogs and Collingwood. Explanable to more accurate kicking for scores comparable to us - statistically significant differentials to AFL averages...however - agree that the method to force our players to shift away from the gamplan was very well done by those two teams and coaching staff.
  • The last month we have kicked 89.25 points a match, so my belief is scoring/forward line isn't an issue as much as people are making out, due to a desire to have a traditional full forward style - perhaps referencing the Geelong setup. The spread of our scoring  options - stacks up in finals.
  • With two losses to teams that have kicked over 100 points within the last month, I'm unclear that it's a structural problem. 24 to 21 scoring shots vs Collingwood with an opponent accuracy of 71% for goals, and 25  to 23 scoring shots  vs Bulldogs for an accuracy of 74%. That would comfortably be ahead of the AFL average, would I would suggest is mid to high 50's% - and happy to have that confirmed/corrected.

 

'Body of work from rounds 1-10'? I don't think we played particularly well in the first 10 rounds - mainly scrappy wins against weak or mediocre teams. In fact, we arguably played better last Friday night than most of our earlier wins. 

Edited by Redlagged
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There's still a week off between the end of the home and away season and finals.

I feel like that could be a hugely important week for us because right now there's a feeling like we are straining mentally, resulting in overthinking and underthinking and lapses of concentration.

For all the frustration with the flaws and the bitterness of throwing away what would have been a guaranteed top-4 spot had we beaten the Magpies, really we're not playing bad football.

We now must win against the Lions and Blues to secure a top-4 spot, and we 'should', and then when that 'if' goes our way the mood is a little better going into the pre-finals break, and we can go back to anything is possible.

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4 minutes ago, Redlagged said:

We're still 3 weeks away from week 1 of the finals (post season/real season). We're not tapering just yet.

What makes you believe we aren't tapering yet?

I guess when you think about it, prelim/grand final day is still 7-8 weeks away and that is a long time to maintain fitness tbh. When looking back last year and as @binman has mentioned in another thread we weren't playing out of our skins in the r21 west coast and almost got smashed by Geelong even in r23 still.

The only dominant football we played was really only the prelim and grand final last which are obviously the most important two games of the season. When, in the H&A season last year did we ever smash a team by 83 and 74 points respectively? None.

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For all the Collingwood [censored], they will most likely be 5th after Round 22. They would finish 4th if they beat Carlton in Round 23. This is based on us beating #freekickcarlton next week and Brisbane over the Saints.

That said, we play #2 on the free kick differential, and our last 2 losses were against #1 and #3. Expect similar treatment from the maggots.

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32 minutes ago, Engorged Onion said:

That's an interesting take, I genuinely come from the opposing view that even if the other top 10 sides have been doing it (and a differing levels of intensity, due to where they thought theyd be, the age profile of their list etc) - it explains fluctuations in form significantly.

Here are the win loss records of the top 8 over the last 5 matches, I could stretch it to 2 months, but not sure where to find it (can't be arsed googling a nice graphic)

Where we may differ, is our views on Geelong playing at Kardinia Park and how much that advantage is to them.

 

Simply, every team is sketchy as [censored]. 🙂

 

Geelong are not due to home ground advantage.

Collingwood are not due to minimal loading.

Sydney are less so due to home ground advantage. (loss against Essendon, win against Freo IN freo - Freo increase training loads??? is a hypothesis, and probably accurate)

 

I'll write some more later :)

803428222_ScreenShot2022-08-07at09_30_18.thumb.png.c5fa25383f06f9040c5bb0c9611fc1f3.png

 

Yeah while I don't agree ,I am not disputing that they are good enough  to win any game on any  day.

But they haven't won the clutch games and every game from here on in is one of those.

It is not convincing ,to me at least, to say percentage (as a result of early season defence abilities ) and a 2 point buffer because Freo had a draw( ps Freo is the only one I don't think can beat us unless Dogga "tanks") gives us a advantage over the other contenders. 

Nor that the Cats fold in finals...they are genuine favourites imo  but interesting graphic btw

Here's hoping....( smile) 

Edited by IRW
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Well, it looks to me like the optimists can find plenty of excuses for our losses. I’d like to believe we can still win it, but a lot of things have to improve… the same things that have needed to improve for at least six weeks.  So far I haven’t seen any evidence that they can or will. 

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