Demons won't win the flag in 2022.

[John Crow Batty 8,217]

49 minutes ago, Mr Steve said:

Don't agree. But five of our six loses have been on our home ground and that is a concern. 

We don’t have a home ground. It may say so on paper but we are just co-tenants amongst several. We have played 11 games there this season to Collingwoods 13 plus due to the size of the stadium more popular Victorian clubs will always have more fans and more noise in our “official” home games. Still we have more than enough familiarity and is a major concern we cannot play the ground to a satisfactory level. We should do much better.

[Cheap Seats 3,300]

12 minutes ago, buck_nekkid said:

In his presser, Goody seemed both phizzed off and also very confident.  Shootouts don’t suit us.  
 

we can win, but not like that.  When we allow them to move the ball so easily and crumble under pressure we are stuffed.  We won almost all the important stats, but lost the game.  That won’t happen too often.

time to get this stuff sorted and line ourselves up for a finals campaign.  We can win it from anywhere in the 8.

We might not like shootouts, but we keep getting in to them. AFL loves offensive teams, doesn't look great for us.

[Gawndy the Great 7,245]

3 hours ago, TeamPlayedFine39 said:

Whilst we’re a little way off it at the moment, I believe our ‘best’ is better than anyone else’s.

 

Maybe last year, but not this year.

 

[1964_2 2,357]

4 hours ago, COVID Dan said:

Might be a dopey thread to you, but it will be a fact come 8 weeks time.

Then who will look dopey then? Tough guy calling out people for having an opinion?

go and lock yourself down Dan. 

[von 1,212]

We are a semi functional forward line away from going back to back. We can find what we need in time but it won’t be easy

[deebunked 272]

Of course we can still win it. Our best is still the best. We need to sort out the backline. Gave up 200+ points against Bulldogs and Pies. Unthinkable in 2021. Forward line is kicking enough goals to win games. Fix the backs and the forwards will deliver.

Geelong will tire on the MCG, Lions are pretenders, Swans  deserve respect and could go to the big dance and Collingwood are running on 8 cylinders at 200km/h  without brakes. Classic Collingwood good average side boistered by massive crowds, intimidated umpires and astonishng run of luck. Wont last.

[roy11 2,911]

Still think we can win it on our day BUT it's a pretty deadly 1-10 this year and think most could shake up finals (lets just exclude St Kilda)

 

[Guest]

Some travelling music, gents.
 

 

[Macca 16,173]

We can obviously still win the flag but the forward line is in urgent repair

Petracca forward, Max CHF, Van Rooyen in a forward pocket 

Add in Fritsch, Brown & Kossie and suddenly the forward line is much improved

Backline & midfield is fine.  No issues there

Bowey can be the spare small forward (or ANB or Spargo)  One of those 3 plays but 2 miss out

Melksham out as well and Harmes can therefore go into the midfield rotations

Petracca to spend 30% on the ball

Forward line is the issue ... scores say otherwise but structurally we are being found out

Teams are scoring freely or moving the ball out of our forward line with ease

That has to change

 

[monoccular 15,989]

3 hours ago, Deespicable said:

Agree this is quite the morbid post, but tend to agree, but here's a few reasons IMO.

1) Other sides have worked out that we like to go down left side and are ready for us. And because we rarely switch there's no chance to expose other players or other entries. To alter that line of attack in three weeks is not possible.

2) James Jordon worked as hard, if not harder than anyone on Friday and was in our best handful. But how many times did he do anything but normal link work. He hasn't got the speed to break lines. Ideally he should be in the middle playing as big-bodied mid. We have to find a right-side wingman who the players like going through - this ties in with our failure to switch right. Jackson isn't a long-term option as a wingman, but I'd be playing him there for the rest of the season to try and convince May and Salem and Hibberd to risk going long to him. He ain't going to be outmarked. Sadly it's too late in the season to try such a radical change.

3) We no longer take risks. When we go down the left side (as we do 95% of the time), rarely do the players risk sending a long bomb over to a player on the other side. Langdon took a clever mark and goaled in one of our few switches like this in the 2nd term. We are so ingrained in trying to beat sides down the wing, that we restrict our options and when we turn it over, sides like Collingwood take us on through the middle as our zone defence reorganises itself. We ultimately need another tall target to allow this to happen.

4) The tall target may well be JVR, but Goody doesn't like changing his setup (we are still the reigning premiers after all), but after another loss (our sixth in 10 weeks) he should consider it. But he won't now, it's too late in the season. Goody, this season, also has underrated (or forgotten) the excitement that comes with having a first or second gamer getting a chance. We all know they don't play the percentages or do the customary but that sometimes leads to a spark. But JVR won't play this year.

5) Clearly we aren't as fit this year as last year. Losing Burgess has been costly and I suspect the new fitness guy allowed a few of our senior players (now premiership players) to get away with not doing quite as much hard work. It's too late now to turn this around, but a stiff session that finishes with 8x200m reps this Tuesday or Wednesday will help. You don't need to sack the fitness manager, but hopefully he learns for next year that nice guys finish ... without a flag.

6) Speaking of nice guys, clearly Trac has won plaudits this year in this area. His profile has gone through the roof with ads, and post-match TV interviews and he's just so nice. Earlier in the year he even started picking up opponents off the ground after tackles.  Sorry Trac, you are a great bloke, but we want you to be a great, hard footballer. You can't have both. Nice guys finish ... without an All Australian. And he can't change his nice guy DNA around in three weeks.

7) When it comes to taking the game on we got a lesson from a 19 year old last night in Nick Daicos. He has the confidence to run and switch and he tackles. Unfortunately we haven't had that player down back, with the exception of Angus anywhere near that. I still think Rivers could become a great running defender but he just hasn't embraced that role like we needed yet. His effort when he failed to spoil McCreery on the wing was enough to tell me he need to go back to the school of hard knocks. He might yet become an absolute star, but it won't be this year.

8) Our search for a running defender isn't just a Trent Rivers issue. Jayden Hunt can also cop a bit of the blame, but you can tell he's playing really close to his opponent and he just hasn't quite been able to launch on the counter attack. But to be honest he's closer to reaching that role than Rivers at the moment. But Hunt will most likely be dropped this week. Finding a running defender won't be this year but at least Angus should be back in the sweeper role next week after being tagged out of it after half time against the Pies. And Bowser needs another go there as well.

9) ANB has been playing our high half-forward through the middle all year and he presents and keeps moving as well as any player in the game. It's an incredibly tough role, requires courage and awareness and is a bit like the job of a No.10 in soccer - it's that crucial. It's just that ANB hasn't been able to break free this year because sides are on to him  - I haven't got the stat but I reckon he'd be our most tackled player all year by far. There are only two players who could do this role this year instead of him - Petracca and Viney. Will Goody switch either out of their midfield positions to do so. Not likely this year.

10) I mentioned earlier we don't have the fitness but based on how we looked against the Pies we also don't have the athleticism - or at least the confidence and speed that taking the game on brings. The classic example is Olly who continually handballs when he is by far our best runner. He seemed to have gotten over that fear last year and for much of this year but I suspect he's gone back to looking at his SuperCoach points since he hurt his thumb and a safe handball is worth more than an errant kick that almost wins a game. He's the best player in the side with Trac and he just has to show the confidence (and arrogance).

11) Given that we lost so badly to the Pies run and also struggled in that department against Geelong a few weeks back, there's no doubt Joel Smith's athleticism is needed at the minute. If we don't go JVR, and I suspect we won't, he's the obvious swingman to provide a spark up forward and gives is the flexibility of having someone who can be sent back in case of injury. He's not the messiah, but he showed enough early in the season before his 15th injury, that he can cope with AFL level at last.

12) We all get that in general our central midfield is the best in the league, but at finals (and we are pretty much there now) you have to shut down players as well and Harmes has his flaws but at least he works his butt off and niggles. We need him to be assigned a player each week in the middle - Walsh followed by McCluggage etc. He will still need a break and that's where having a raging bull like Viney should come in as well with the pair waxing on the poor star who is chosen. But that won't happen this year. 

13) Finally Goody and the coaches are so caught up in their three-group (forwards, mids and defender) training method these days that the old ability to switch players mid-game on to dangerous players no longer exists. Changing players can mentally make it harder for opponents to keep their flow. It used to be a tactic that all the great coaches from Barassi through to Hafey employed. But it doesn't happen any more because coaches don't like taking risks. 

So just in case anybody doubts my message, here it is again. We are premiers and we are playing safe and our coaches and players aren't taking risks and that's understandable to a large degree because we are premiers. But ultimately that's why we won't be going back-to-back this year. Next year is another story.

Well considered and presented post, Deespicable. 
 

On the point re fitness, unfortunately we were unable to see how Burgess would have handled the vastly different scenarios coming into season 2022.  Would / could he have handled it differently?

Starting with an elongated 2021 (which none of us would complain about 🏆) thus a shortened preseason maybe the competition is so tight that maintaining two seasons in a row is even more challenging than way back when it was just a matter of skill and determination.   Time will tell. 

[IRW 1,212]

1 hour ago, wisedog said:

I think we have been trying to pace ourselves, if not physically with training regimens, then certainly mentally. Having said that, it’s not advisable to spend too long in the cruising mindset.

‘Plan A, B, and C’ is a bit of an exaggeration. I really just mean the combination of forward sets ups we have trialled since Tom McDonald has been out.

Ok I will accept your last paragraph.

I guess plan D is  JVR and it seems likely that the coach has held off on that one about a month too long.

May as well stick with getting him ready next season .

I think Tom is borderline for next season and BBB as well

[Demons1858 1,657]

The only stat the pies really won was conversion rate, chill everyone

Edited August 6, 2022 by Demons1858

[1964_2 2,357]

36 minutes ago, deebunked said:

Of course we can still win it. Our best is still the best. We need to sort out the backline. Gave up 200+ points against Bulldogs and Pies. Unthinkable in 2021. Forward line is kicking enough goals to win games. Fix the backs and the forwards will deliver.

Geelong will tire on the MCG, Lions are pretenders, Swans  deserve respect and could go to the big dance and Collingwood are running on 8 cylinders at 200km/h  without brakes. Classic Collingwood good average side boistered by massive crowds, intimidated umpires and astonishng run of luck. Wont last.

I see it the opposite of this. Backline is fine. Need more pressure up the ground, and especially in the fwd line, preventing the opposition from setting up end to end goals. 
 

[Maldonboy38 5,807]

I am as filthy as anyone after our loss last night, but I refuse to jump off the Dee train and re-join Neeld's "reality bus".

We are the reigning premiers, 3rd on the ladder, with the best midfield and best defence in the league. Yes, we have a massive forward coordination issue including a single-idea game plan, no real power forward, and our kicking skills can be atrocious. But we are losing games through inefficiency and being beaten in big moments - both fixable things.

I waited almost 6 decades for this. I'm not jumping off this until its over. I am expecting our premiership window to be open for 3 more years at least and I'm going to ride every bump, even if I get filthy mad it hurts sometimes.

[Fork 'em 6,505]

Flag's still wide open.
No we haven't won the games we'd like which we did last year but we've been up to our necks against the oppositions we expect to meet in finals.
Biggest threats are Geelong, Pies and ... Swans who seem to be chugging along happily under the radar.
Reckon we'd have the rest covered.

2nd half fade outs are a huge concern though.
Last season we won something like 19 third qtrs.
This year however .... Dunno what the stats are.
Whether Burgess had them actually fitter or just believing they were actually fitter ... Again, dunno.
The players need a good dose of belief IMO.
When the game's there to be won at the moment we've gone gun shy.

Edited August 6, 2022 by Fork 'em

[WalkingCivilWar 31,101]

6 hours ago, COVID Dan said:

Might seem like an overreaction

Is. 

[WalkingCivilWar 31,101]

5 hours ago, COVID Dan said:

I guess you were trying to prove that you're more dopey. I apologise.

Just a tip there hot shot, there is a difference between discussion and being a jerk.

I'll let u work it out chief 

And please stop with the name-calling. It’s both unnecessary as well as forbidden on DL. 

[John Crow Batty 8,217]

20 minutes ago, Fork 'em said:

Flag's still wide open.
No we haven't won the games we'd like which we did last year but we've been up to our necks against the oppositions we expect to meet in finals.
Biggest threats are Geelong, Pies and ... Swans who seem to be chugging along happily under the radar.
Reckon we'd have the rest covered.

2nd half fade outs are a huge concern though.
Last season we won something like 19 third qtrs.
This year however .... Dunno what the stats are.
Whether Burgess had them actually fitter or just believing they were actually fitter ... Again, dunno.
The players need a good dose of belief IMO.
When the game's there to be won at the moment we've gone gun shy.

We won 13 third quarters so far which is not too bad. But the last are killers. We have scored 55 points and conceded 158 points in our six losses. Our best in those has been 15 points. What makes it worse is that everyone of those games were winnable at 3/4 time.

Edited August 6, 2022 by John Crow Batty

[monoccular 15,989]

The results of first half v second half of the season could not be more contrasting 

10-0 v 4-6

Happy to have be led the first half but would live to know the reason. Physical? Mental? Certainly missing some key personnel at key moments NB QB v Colonwood but there seems to be a lack of confidence and of mongrel when we have teams down.  I think n each of our losses we were comfortably on top into Q3.  
Time will tell whether we can reset in time.  
But doing the same thing going forward with long bombs when we are repeatedly outmarked seems just insane. I think it was the Port game where we went lower and were rewarded - why not do it every week?

Secret weapon up Goody’s sleeve?  If he can pull it off he will be a true genius. 

[ManDee 7,073]

6 hours ago, COVID Dan said:

Might be a dopey thread to you, but it will be a fact come 8 weeks time.

Then who will look dopey then? Tough guy calling out people for having an opinion?

 

5 hours ago, COVID Dan said:

I guess you were trying to prove that you're more dopey. I apologise.

Just a tip there hot shot, there is a difference between discussion and being a jerk.

I'll let u work it out chief 

Pot, kettle, black.

Or troll?

[Gorgoroth 12,305]

The biggest reason why I have thought we won’t win the flag this year is we have not evolved. We are expecting the same gameplan/style to be fine. Clarko always said each pre season you tweak it and it gets tweaked at least once during the year.

We have a poor record vs top 8 teams this year to be a serious contender, we have won 4 out of 10 and we still roll our the same team and the same plan. 
We have the worst ability to hit targets inside 50 and poor leading patterns by our forwards (we should change forward coach at seasons end)

Worst of all, no one fears us.

[IRW 1,212]

5 minutes ago, John Crow Batty said:

We won 13 third quarters so far which is not too bad. But the last are killers. We have scored 55 points and conceded 158 points in our six losses. Our best in those has been 15 points. What makes it worse is that everyone of those games were winnable at 3/4 time.

Clutching at Straws.. last year the Premiers won last quarters as well as first quarters.

Everyone would have been on edge at e

3/4 time

This year they know its not over and they can catch us.

BIG difference 

[deva5610 970]

6 hours ago, COVID Dan said:

But i am super confident I won't be the one eating humble pie.

Fun fact - 87.5% of the teams that finish top 8 won't win the flag. You're not a genius, you're playing the odds.

[chookrat 3,774]

1 hour ago, 1964_2 said:

I see it the opposite of this. Backline is fine. Need more pressure up the ground, and especially in the fwd line, preventing the opposition from setting up end to end goals. 
 

Yep, this is where the problem lies. While we dominated most of the stats, the filth had far too much time and space in the corridor where they cut us up, and scored easy goals.  When we had quick entries in our forward line, unless we marked it the ball came out far to easily. The only forward entry ground balls where we could create stoppages were in the pockets while Collingwood were able to do so directly in front of goal.

[von 1,212]

I think we are really close to playing great football again. We’ve seen it in patches recently. If not for collingwoods freakish accuracy we win that game comfortably. Despite our in reality all over the place season we are just losing games we are playing poorly in. I still think Collingwood are a middling side riding some [censored] wave that only they can. Whether it breaks sooner or later who knows. Us and Geelong are the best two sides in it still. We have a more sustainable brand that will work over time with tweaks here and there. Im hoping the Collingwood game gets the boys angry and reminds them once and for all that this isn’t going to just happen for us. It will be harder than last year but we have the team to do it. We have more room to improve than any of the top 4 sides by a long way. Let’s see how much ground we can make up.