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Is our offense a problem?


Vipercrunch

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51 minutes ago, Lord Nev said:

The noticeable difference though (which isn't necessarily a reflection of our forwards) is in the second halves:

2021:         Points Scored             Points Conceded              %

                   983 = 44.68avg          627 = 28.5avg                156.78

2022:        Points Scored              Points Conceded              %

                  898  = 40.81avg             808 =36.72vg              111.14

And when you look at just 4th quarters it's even worse (won't bother with all the numbers, just %)

2021: 144.44

2022: 92.84

Over the last month when we seem to have started to see improvement (maybe in part due to more Jackson in the ruck/Gawn forward), our percentage has been 138.34%.

The second halves are still a problem though and it that period we're going at only 99.32%.

In the same period in 2021 our percentage was 165.23%, and our second halves went at a staggering 211.45%.

Long story short, our second halves are still an issue even though our form has improved, and we are nowhere near as flying as we were this time last year.

So what those numbers bare out is that in second halves comparative  to last year, we score on average in 4 points better and concede 8 points more on average? I may be reading it wrong and I wouldn’t use language like ‘issues’ or ‘problem’. 
 

I concede I am an optimist.

 

Edited by Engorged Onion
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5 minutes ago, Deestar9 said:

Actually you don’t think it’s more to do with the building of form into the finals footy that Goodwin coaches us to play?  The coaches & the players have had to contend with 17 other coaches who would have studied us ad nauseam in the off season so whilst sticking to the “nuts and bolts” of our game plan they would have tweaked and adjusted according to who we play & what personnel were available. No use showing the rest of the comp our finished product before finals. Clever coach Goodwin   

Definitely lifting in form, and just quietly I still expect us to at least play in a GF this year, so I don't mean it as a knock on the coaches, players etc, more just comparing to last year in terms of how we've been finishing off games.

TMac is a big out structurally, we had more sore players than last year it seems, a few positions haven't seemed as 'locked in' as last year, so 100% there's reasons to it all.

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2 minutes ago, Engorged Onion said:

So what those numbers bare out is that in second halves comparative  to last year, we score on average in 4 points better and concede 8 points more on average? I may be reading it wrong and I wouldn’t use language like ‘issues’ or ‘problem’.

I concede I am an optimist.

I like where we're going, 100% we're starting to look really dangerous, but yes I do think the fact we've been outscored in second halves over the last month is an 'issue' that would be looked at, and I would assume could even improve as our injuries, soreness and fitness all improve.

A 4th quarter % difference of 144% last year to 92% this year would be being looked at by the coaches and fitness staff don't you think?

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8 minutes ago, Lord Nev said:

I like where we're going, 100% we're starting to look really dangerous, but yes I do think the fact we've been outscored in second halves over the last month is an 'issue' that would be looked at, and I would assume could even improve as our injuries, soreness and fitness all improve.

A 4th quarter % difference of 144% last year to 92% this year would be being looked at by the coaches and fitness staff don't you think?

To your last point, absolutely. However, I believe there is another thread which covers the reasons why this has occurred.

Pre Brisbane match presser by Goodwin discussed players feeling fresh. He hasn’t alluded to that for 3 months or so.  
 

So, I think it’s a good indicator @Lord Nevas to what was going on and one way to make sense of the numbers.

Edited by Engorged Onion
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13 minutes ago, SFebes said:

Good post Nev, very interesting and you can see with the eyes we arent anywhere near last year. Unsure if you have time, but I'd love to see the same stats applied to just i50's??

See what they compare v last year. Maybe its similar, but our connection and conversion is much worse?

Maybe, just maybe, the switch was flicked v Brisbane.

We're currently 3rd for average inside 50s this year with 56.5 per game.

In 2021 we were 2nd with 56.2 per game (including finals).

As far as marks inside 50 goes, we're currently 8th on 11.4 per game, in 2021 we were second with 12.7.

Doesn't seem a massive difference hey? Not sure if it's to do with goal accuracy, would need another coffee or two before doing any more stats!

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On 7/6/2022 at 10:15 AM, tiers said:

What is truly offensive is using offence (a foreign usage) as a substitute for attack.

Our great game demands its own terminology.

Spot on. We play Australian Rules footy  - it’s called the forward line. And don’t get me started on Deefence!

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4 minutes ago, Engorged Onion said:

To your last point, absolutely. However, I believe there is another thread which covers the reasons why this has occurred.

Pre Brisbane match presser by Goodwin discussed players feeling fresh. He hasn’t alluded to that for 3 months or so. 

So, I think it’s a good indicator @Lord Nevas to what was going on and one way to make sense of the numbers.

Absolutely, and I'm firmly in the loading camp which is why I'm really positive about our chances this year. That's why I mentioned fitness as one of the factors in my response.

But clearly we were loading last year so I don't believe that's 100% the reason for the huge difference in the last 4 games of the season between 2021 and 2022. More to it this year.

Edited by Lord Nev
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1 minute ago, Lord Nev said:

We're currently 3rd for average inside 50s this year with 56.5 per game.

In 2021 we were 2nd with 56.2 per game (including finals).

As far as marks inside 50 goes, we're currently 8th on 11.4 per game, in 2021 we were second with 12.7.

Doesn't seem a massive difference hey? Not sure if it's to do with goal accuracy, would need another coffee or two before doing any more stats!

Good on ya mate, cheers for that. Look forward to seeing the other stats, very interesting break down hey.

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6 minutes ago, Engorged Onion said:

To your last point, absolutely. However, I believe there is another thread which covers the reasons why this has occurred.

Pre Brisbane match presser by Goodwin discussed players feeling fresh. He hasn’t alluded to that for 3 months or so.  
 

So, I think it’s a good indicator @Lord Nevas to what was going on and one way to make sense of the numbers.

Although EO, as good as we played on Friday, we were still out scored in the second half - the same issue Nev was alluding to. Why? Are we not fit enough yet? Or did we take the foot off the gas? Or are we not quite the side this year relative to this years competition? While I know no one on here knows the answer to that, I’m confident the coaching staff do, so I’m not overly concerned - unless we fail to win the premiership of course. 

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3 minutes ago, Neil Crompton said:

Although EO, as good as we played on Friday, we were still out scored in the second half - the same issue Nev was alluding to. Why? Are we not fit enough yet? Or did we take the foot off the gas? Or are we not quite the side this year relative to this years competition? While I know no one on here knows the answer to that, I’m confident the coaching staff do, so I’m not overly concerned - unless we fail to win the premiership of course. 

My take, as I was at the game: I said it a few times in the third quarter to my friends in the members,  It felt like watching the Dees essentially channel the Portland 3rds, doing 'circle work'. My Queensland companions had never heard the term before.

There was nothing to be gained by going harder and harder, aside from potential injuries.

Now... some may get caught up in the notion that Sydney could still claim 2nd. I'd argue that was a lower priority for the club (by what I could see at the game) than potentially injuring key personnel.

Edited by Engorged Onion
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11 minutes ago, Engorged Onion said:

My take, as I was at the game: I said it a few times in the third quarter to my friends in the members,  It felt like watching the Dees essentially channel the Portland 3rds, doing 'circle work'. My Queensland companions had never heard the term before.

There was nothing to be gained by going harder and harder, aside from potential injuries.

Now... some may get caught up in the notion that Sydney could still claim 2nd. I'd argue that was a lower priority for the club (by what I could see at the game) than potentially injuring key personnel.

It's not just that game though.

We've only won 2 second halves out of the last 7 games.

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1 minute ago, Engorged Onion said:

Read the loading thread 😬 🤣

Again mate, I'm a loading believer, (if you read that thread yourself you'll see that) but the narrative from some there is to compare it to last year given we seem to have done the same thing then.

But once again, in the last 4 games of the regular season this is the percentage difference for second halves:

2021 - 211.45

2022 - 99.32

 

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8 minutes ago, Engorged Onion said:

Read the loading thread 😬

I’m confused about Friday night EO. Your first explanation was that from your observation they took their foot off the gas - didn’t want to risk injury. Now you are saying it was because of loading? 

I don’t know what the answer is, and I don’t expect any of us really do. 

Edited by Neil Crompton
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2 minutes ago, Neil Crompton said:

I’m confused about Friday night EO. Your first explanation was that from your observation they took their foot off the gas - didn’t want to risk injury. Now you are saying it was because of loading? 

I don’t know what the answer is, and I don’t expect any of us really do. 

Neil, Loading is in reference to the last 2.5 months of form out on the field. And, loading had nothing to do with Friday night. Hope that's a bit clearer.

Edited by Engorged Onion
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I'd say at a guess we probably just took our foot off the fas and didn't go as hard.

At ten goals up who would keep risking an injury on the eve of finals?

I think that is smart self preservation for themselves and the team.

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6 minutes ago, Lord Nev said:

Again mate, I'm a loading believer, (if you read that thread yourself you'll see that) but the narrative from some there is to compare it to last year given we seem to have done the same thing then.

But once again, in the last 4 games of the regular season this is the percentage difference for second halves:

2021 - 211.45

2022 - 99.32

 

I know you are a believer @Lord Nev, and the loading program for this year will be different from last year due to the 6 week later start vs the 2020.

Further, our strong desire to keep kicking long down the line and to pockets irrespective of game state, game score, game scenario, over the last few months, bares out to me, that due to our loading program, the FD felt the best way to preserve the game as best they could was to provide few exit options for the opposing team to carve us through the middle(ie: hugged up against the boundary line) because we have been gassed due to where we sat within the training program.

All of a sudden that shifted Friday night...

The loading program influenced the last 2 months of scores, particularly the second halves - yep the FD were prepared to risk 8 games of the season, to get the team peaking for the season proper.

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2 minutes ago, Engorged Onion said:

I know you are a believer @Lord Nev, and the loading program for this year will be different from last year due to the 6 week later start vs the 2020.

Further, our strong desire to keep kicking long down the line and to pockets irrespective of game state, game score, game scenario, over the last few months, bares out to me, that due to our loading program, the FD felt the best way to preserve the game as best they could was to provide few exit options for the opposing team to carve us through the middle(ie: hugged up against the boundary line) because we have been gassed due to where we sat within the training program.

All of a sudden that shifted Friday night...

The loading program influenced the last 2 months of scores, particularly the second halves - yep the FD were prepared to risk 8 games of the season, to get the team peaking for the season proper.

Agree on all this mate. I just think there's additional factors this year, mostly injuries and soreness, that are making a difference to those second halves as well. Was massively important for us to get top 4 and have the potential week off, the bye is handy too I reckon.

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7 hours ago, Lord Nev said:

Again mate, I'm a loading believer, (if you read that thread yourself you'll see that) but the narrative from some there is to compare it to last year given we seem to have done the same thing then.

But once again, in the last 4 games of the regular season this is the percentage difference for second halves:

2021 - 211.45

2022 - 99.32

 

Quoting Max Gawn…last year …”we don’t even look at last year”. Totally different…(I agree) Going from hunting to “hunted” is a big difference to start with! 

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