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The Run Home



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12 hours ago, Dee Zephyr said:

Three biggies next week.

Saints v Dogs

Blues v Cats

Dockers v Swans.

Realistically, Saints and Dogs are out of the running for the 8.

Beveridge knows that and has given up on 2022 saying the will look to the future. 

It doesn't mean they will be easier to beat but they aren't chasing finals this year.

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12 hours ago, Glorious Day said:

My ladder after Round 23:

Geelong - 64

Melbourne - 64

Fremantle - 64

Richmond - 60

Carlton - 60

Brisbane - 56

Sydney - 56

Collingwood - 56

I think we'll win 4 of our last 6, one way or another. This would be a reasonable outcome too.

Games I think we will 100% win: Bulldogs and Lions

Games I think we should win, but could be danger games: Port, Collingwood

Games which are probably toss ups, but you'd almost tip against us unless we can fix up our forward 50 entries: Carlton, Fremantle

 

 

Your very generous to Richmond. They will be lucky to finish 7-8 at best.

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R17: +2 days against Port (minus travel)

R18: -1 day against Bulldogs (minus travel)

R19: -1 day against Freo (both travel)

R20: +1 day against Collingwood (minus travel)

R21: +1 day against Carlton (plus travel)

R22: -1 day against Brisbane (both travel)


We looked so flat against Geelong, and I couldn’t help but think it’s due to our dodgy fixture. Apart from Rounds 20-21 (Collingwood-Carlton), we won’t be playing back to back games in the same State.

Our most advantageous rounds are Port and Carlton. We should be neutral against Collingwood.

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12 hours ago, A F said:

No doubt it was a continuation of the reloading phase. Couldn't get out of first gear for the whole match, but that's why I'm more suspect on our Bulldogs fixture. I think we'll beat Port. It depends if we go for the next heavy loading block during the 9 day break or off the back of the Port game. Given the conditions we'll likely face in the NT, it'll be interesting to see.

A lot of players are away/ on a break this weekend given the 9 days break between games. That suggest to me we are tapering off.

We haven't had a normal bye like every other side either... which apparently is totally ok for AFL to do to just one club! 

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13 minutes ago, TheWiz said:

R17: +2 days against Port (minus travel)

R18: -1 day against Bulldogs (minus travel)

R19: -1 day against Freo (both travel)

R20: +1 day against Collingwood (minus travel)

R21: +1 day against Carlton (plus travel)

R22: -1 day against Brisbane (both travel)


We looked so flat against Geelong, and I couldn’t help but think it’s due to our dodgy fixture. Apart from Rounds 20-21 (Collingwood-Carlton), we won’t be playing back to back games in the same State.

Our most advantageous rounds are Port and Carlton. We should be neutral against Collingwood.

I reckon the 5 day break contributed to our flatness. Geelong had one too but their match on against the kangas was pretty easy I reckon. 

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This is what the run home looks like:

image.png.4a4ebf4253fbd87064acd271c0dc848c.png

Many 8pt games among the top 8 (red and blue) and a fair smattering of their games vs teams 9 to 12 (green).  Even the teams in 13 to 18 can do damage.

We are 1 game and significant % above 5th.  % is difficult to move at this time of year so that % gap is virtually another game. 

By my reckoning:

  • The top 8 is set
  • 15 wins needed for top 4.  So we need three wins.  Our % is an extra buffer.  I don't know which three we will win but I am certain we will win three.
  • 17 wins or even 16 +% needed for top 2.  Any team on 11 wins or less needs to win at least 5 of the last 6 to make top 2.   Given that Freo, Lions, Blues and Pies also have a very difficult run home, our chances of top 2 are excellent!

So never fear, dear DL's.  The question isn't which games we will win, it is who is in a position to dislodge us from top 4 or top 2? 

So for mine, top 4 it is and top 2 is ours for the keeping!

Anyway, I think we can win it from anywhere in the 8.

Edited by Lucifers Hero
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There are really only a few match ups you could have that you could be really confident of: North Melbourne, West Coast, GWS and probably Adelaide away from Adelaide. Even Hawthorn at times are a dangerous opponent.

Whilst our fixture is harder than everyone else's, pretty much all of the finals/top 4 contenders have tricky runs home. Take Geelong for example, described by many to have one of the easier runs home. They have Carlton, Port (away), the Dogs, St Kilda, Gold Coast (away) and West Coast. The Dogs and Saints games are in Geelong which helps, but the two road trips plus Carlton at the G are not easy games at all.

IMO we're closer to going 6-0 from here than we are to stumbling through 2-4 or something. Geelong made us look poor, but they are on top of the ladder for a reason and despite being off all night we were a Pickett snap off drawing level in the fourth quarter. Port are somewhat in form but haven't won away from the Adelaide Oval since Round 9, and that was against North. The Dogs are not in form at all, 3-3 over their last six with the three wins being against weaker sides in West Coast, GWS and Hawthorn. Carlton are hot/cold, haven't won consecutive games since Rounds 9-10. Collingwood are the luckiest 11-5 side I can remember and it's not likely their luck keeps going for another six weeks. We've already belted Brisbane once this year and we led Fremantle by 20 halfway through the third of a game in which injuries wreaked havoc on us.

3-3 from here is a fair chance to be enough for top 4, too: 3-3 gets us to 15 wins. Assuming we don't shed much percentage, given we're 17% clear of Carlton and 27% clear of Collingwood, there's a fair chance they'd have to get to 16 wins to pass us, which will mean one of them has to go 5-1 from here. Or Sydney would have to go 6-0. 

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1 hour ago, titan_uranus said:

3-3 from here is a fair chance to be enough for top 4, too: 3-3 gets us to 15 wins. Assuming we don't shed much percentage, given we're 17% clear of Carlton and 27% clear of Collingwood, there's a fair chance they'd have to get to 16 wins to pass us, which will mean one of them has to go 5-1 from here. Or Sydney would have to go 6-0. 

If Carlton, Coll or Sydney did achieve that result they are more likely to dislodge Brisbane than us.  Lions are on a top 4 precipice.  They don't have much time to get over injuries/illness, settle their best 22, get their cohesion back and win enough games to stay in top 4.

fwiiw, I reckon the club is aiming to make top 4 and get the double chance.   Top 2 is a bonus.  A bonus they will chase as they want to play finals in front of fans at the G but top 4 is the priority.

Edited by Lucifers Hero
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Strangely enough I think Port will be close to one of the hardest to win in our run home. I would be happy to finish 4th as long as we get to play Geelong. 

Another thing I won't be able to stand is if we lost to the filth again. That would be unbearable.

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2 hours ago, Lucifers Hero said:

If Carlton, Coll or Sydney did achieve that result they are more likely to dislodge Brisbane than us.  Lions are on a top 4 precipice.  They don't have much time to get over injuries/illness, settle their best 22, get their cohesion back and win enough games to stay in top 4.

fwiiw, I reckon the club is aiming to make top 4 and get the double chance.   Top 2 is a bonus.  A bonus they will chase as they want to play finals in front of fans at the G but top 4 is the priority.

Interestingly 3rd or 4th probably has little difference to 1-2.  i.e. - if our opponent is Geelong (or even Collingwood or Carlton), the game will be at the MCG in any case.

If it is Freo - we'll see how we go against them in a few weeks on their home deck... but its not as if that ground is a bogey ground.  We played our best 2 games of football there last year!

Would be surprised if Brisbane finish above us given their injuries and form.

If it were somehow Sydney, they've got a poor record at home compared with the MCG.

 

 

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37 minutes ago, deelusions from afar said:

Interestingly 3rd or 4th probably has little difference to 1-2.  i.e. - if our opponent is Geelong (or even Collingwood or Carlton), the game will be at the MCG in any case.

If it is Freo - we'll see how we go against them in a few weeks on their home deck... but its not as if that ground is a bogey ground.  We played our best 2 games of football there last year!

Would be surprised if Brisbane finish above us given their injuries and form.

If it were somehow Sydney, they've got a poor record at home compared with the MCG.

My point wasn't so much about playing i/state. 

It was playing at the G gives fans a chance to see the games which we were denied last year.  It is a big motivator for the team and top 2 would give us that.

But as I said top 4 is the priority and we play wherever the cards fall. 

Edited by Lucifers Hero
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3 hours ago, Lucifers Hero said:

This is what the run home looks like:

image.png.4a4ebf4253fbd87064acd271c0dc848c.png

Many 8pt games among the top 8 (red and blue) and a fair smattering of their games vs teams 9 to 12 (green).  Even the teams in 13 to 18 can do damage.

We are 1 game and significant % above 5th.  % is difficult to move at this time of year so that % gap is virtually another game. 

By my reckoning:

  • The top 8 is set
  • 15 wins needed for top 4.  So we need three wins.  Our % is an extra buffer.  I don't know which three we will win but I am certain we will win three.
  • 17 wins or even 16 +% needed for top 2.  Any team on 11 wins or less needs to win at least 5 of the last 6 to make top 2.   Given that Freo, Lions, Blues and Pies also have a very difficult run home, our chances of top 2 are excellent!

So never fear, dear DL's.  The question isn't which games we will win, it is who is in a position to dislodge us from top 4 or top 2? 

So for mine, top 4 it is and top 2 is ours for the keeping!

Anyway, I think we can win it from anywhere in the 8.

I love these posts based on careful consideration of the available evidence rather than whatever wild emotion might be currently possessing the poster 😂

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3 hours ago, Lucifers Hero said:

If Carlton, Coll or Sydney did achieve that result they are more likely to dislodge Brisbane than us.  Lions are on a top 4 precipice.  They don't have much time to get over injuries/illness, settle their best 22, get their cohesion back and win enough games to stay in top 4.

fwiiw, I reckon the club is aiming to make top 4 and get the double chance.   Top 2 is a bonus.  A bonus they will chase as they want to play finals in front of fans at the G but top 4 is the priority.

Agree re: Brisbane. Their three home games are GC, Carlton and us. Their three away games are GWS, Richmond and St Kilda. As I said above, not as hard as our run but not exactly easy, either.

The other thing of importance is, if we do go 3-3, who we beat. If we go 3-3 but beat Carlton, Collingwood and Brisbane, each of those sides will need to either go 5-0 in their remaining games, or go 4-1 but pass us on percentage, to finish above us. If the Lions get back to their best they could close the 9% gap between them and us, but for Carlton and Collingwood who are 17 %and 27% back respectively, that's less likely. And given Carlton plays Collingwood and Carlton plays Brisbane, there are two losses right there.

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A lot of what ifs here. What some of you are tending to overlook is that at the moment we have a dysfunctional forward line which probably won't improve until we get TMac back. Come on, admit it, wouldn't you love to have a Hawkins/Cameron, Lobb/Taberner or McKay/Curnow set up right now?

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2 minutes ago, bobby1554 said:

A lot of what ifs here. What some of you are tending to overlook is that at the moment we have a dysfunctional forward line which probably won't improve until we get TMac back. Come on, admit it, wouldn't you love to have a Hawkins/Cameron, Lobb/Taberner or McKay/Curnow set up right now?

Of course we would.  But that won't be the difference on whether we make top 4 or top 2.

How many goals did Hawkins/Cameron kick against us on Thursday?  Hawkins 1.2.3. Cameron 0.1.1 = total of 1.3.4 from a team total of 12.19.91.

We have our best result when we have multiple goal kickers and our defensive game is on song.  We won't have TMc back for finals so everyone needs to lift their game in those two areas.

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8 hours ago, bobby1554 said:

A lot of what ifs here. What some of you are tending to overlook is that at the moment we have a dysfunctional forward line which probably won't improve until we get TMac back. Come on, admit it, wouldn't you love to have a Hawkins/Cameron, Lobb/Taberner or McKay/Curnow set up right now?

Is that you Lloydy? 

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One of the more interesting things for me is that people keep saying, 

“We aren’t at our best. We will flick the switch. We were like this last year. Our best is still the best.”

For me, I think our best last year was the best. But I don’t think we will get to that level. We pretty much have had a full list most of the year, a few injuries but not like 5 missing from our best, we have a game plan that’s been countered and I haven’t seen our counter to theirs. Or a new play. 
the run home will be determined by is playing above what we are now, but unless we have a new tweak to the game plan and imo some much needed positional changes we will not suddenly rise to the absolute heights we did last year. 
still means we are a chance to win it all, but it won’t be a demolition like last year, this run home will determine how well we hit September.

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On 7/11/2022 at 7:20 AM, layzie said:

Would be so good if the Blues could put one over the Cats.

We're probably better off with the Cats winning putting a gap between us and Carlton. Geelong will finish top 4 so we're in a better position if they beat Carlton.

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7 hours ago, Gorgoroth said:

One of the more interesting things for me is that people keep saying, 

“We aren’t at our best. We will flick the switch. We were like this last year. Our best is still the best.”

For me, I think our best last year was the best. But I don’t think we will get to that level. We pretty much have had a full list most of the year, a few injuries but not like 5 missing from our best, we have a game plan that’s been countered and I haven’t seen our counter to theirs. Or a new play. 
the run home will be determined by is playing above what we are now, but unless we have a new tweak to the game plan and imo some much needed positional changes we will not suddenly rise to the absolute heights we did last year. 
still means we are a chance to win it all, but it won’t be a demolition like last year, this run home will determine how well we hit September.

Last year our record against other contenders was impeccable - 8 out of 9 against dogs, cats, port, Brissy. We're not going to achieve that this year having already lost to Geelong and freo. 

In addition, last year our biggest loss was about 20 points. This year Freo and the cats have pumped us.

On the other hand we were the best side last year by the length of the members wing winning the prelim and gf by a combined 26 goals. So we've got a bit of wiggle room. 

However, none of that really matters. All that really matters is how well we play in September. I don't really buy this "we've been worked out stuff". You might know what we're going to do, but that doesn't mean you can stop it. Still time to recapture our form. Going back to back aint easy but we can do it.

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8 minutes ago, Kozzie4PM said:

However, none of that really matters. All that really matters is how well we play in September. I don't really buy this "we've been worked out stuff". You might know what we're going to do, but that doesn't mean you can stop it. Still time to recapture our form. Going back to back aint easy but we can do it.

Of course, but our trick has been worked out, they don’t allow us the spare back, move quickly and make sure they don’t kick long. Ensure they set up for kick ins to the left, ensure the sweeper is there at centre bounce etc. 

So far they have worked all that out. Clarko use to always say that you tweaked the game plan each off season and then once to twice in season. We need change, with Oliver out I’d get Brayshaw straight back to the midfield. 

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1 hour ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

We're probably better off with the Cats winning putting a gap between us and Carlton. Geelong will finish top 4 so we're in a better position if they beat Carlton.

I was kind of hoping Carlton would win and then lose out for the rest of the season.

I'd prefer the top 2 to stay close to our reach as long as possible. I'd take top 4 obviously but not ready to concede home advantage yet.

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2 hours ago, layzie said:

I was kind of hoping Carlton would win and then lose out for the rest of the season.

I'd prefer the top 2 to stay close to our reach as long as possible. I'd take top 4 obviously but not ready to concede home advantage yet.

If we're 3rd and Geelong is 2nd (or 4th/1st) doesn't really matter tho. It's only if we have to travel to Perth it becomes a problem.

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9 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

If we're 3rd and Geelong is 2nd (or 4th/1st) doesn't really matter tho. It's only if we have to travel to Perth it becomes a problem.

Providing that teams other than Carlton don't overtake us, yes!

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