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The Run Home



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2 hours ago, dl4e said:

Don't know what you have been drinking or smoking old dee but it must be a mighty fine tipple. 

Which ones will we drop? we are a game and percentage clear of the other teams and will get Max back this week. Best team by far.

A nice good quality gin Martini or two!

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With the Lions getting done today I have us still making top 4 even if we lose to Freo, one of Carlton/Collingwood and Brisbane. Lose all 4 of those and it drops us to Elimination Finals though.

So by my calculations we have to win at least one of those four while getting the job done against Port and Footscray to secure the double chance.

If we win 2 of the three Pies/Blues/Lions games we should avoid playing Freo in Perth week 1 and play the Cats at the G.

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31 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

With the Lions getting done today I have us still making top 4 even if we lose to Freo, one of Carlton/Collingwood and Brisbane. Lose all 4 of those and it drops us to Elimination Finals though.

So by my calculations we have to win at least one of those four while getting the job done against Port and Footscray to secure the double chance.

If we win 2 of the three Pies/Blues/Lions games we should avoid playing Freo in Perth week 1 and play the Cats at the G.

I think we will drop 1 of the next 2, then really start to hit our straps from round 20, winning 3 of the last 4 (despite tough opposition)

Top 4 will happen. 

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The next 2 games are very important and I fear we may drop one or both of them. 

Port hanging on to finals hope and Dogs will want some redemption for last years GF. Both will come out firing and are not walk overs by any stretch. 

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My ladder after Round 23:

Geelong - 64

Melbourne - 64

Fremantle - 64

Richmond - 60

Carlton - 60

Brisbane - 56

Sydney - 56

Collingwood - 56

I think we'll win 4 of our last 6, one way or another. This would be a reasonable outcome too.

Games I think we will 100% win: Bulldogs and Lions

Games I think we should win, but could be danger games: Port, Collingwood

Games which are probably toss ups, but you'd almost tip against us unless we can fix up our forward 50 entries: Carlton, Fremantle

 

 

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34 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

With the Lions getting done today I have us still making top 4 even if we lose to Freo, one of Carlton/Collingwood and Brisbane. Lose all 4 of those and it drops us to Elimination Finals though.

So by my calculations we have to win at least one of those four while getting the job done against Port and Footscray to secure the double chance.

If we win 2 of the three Pies/Blues/Lions games we should avoid playing Freo in Perth week 1 and play the Cats at the G.

That bloody Sydney game..  should have won  max Fritsch missing 2 easy goals.    Should have could have means nothing of course     All in our hands  if we cannot win at least 3 of remaining six... do not deserve top 4. I have faith we will lift from here   Onto to Port (with a nice break this week)  (no clarrie but) Go dees

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Port are a completely different side to what we faced earlier on the year. They're in good form and will see this as their scalp.

Drop this game and top 4 could be looking on edge.

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IF (and that is a big IF) you reject the notion that our inability to move the footy against Geelong was more about the Cats and their pressure and less a continuation of our mid-season form; we should handle Port and the Bulldogs and set up a month of footy where top 2 is within our control as one of the best sides in the comp.

That was a long sentence and I am sorry.

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17 minutes ago, rpfc said:

IF (and that is a big IF) you reject the notion that our inability to move the footy against Geelong was more about the Cats and their pressure and less a continuation of our mid-season form; we should handle Port and the Bulldogs and set up a month of footy where top 2 is within our control as one of the best sides in the comp.

That was a long sentence and I am sorry.

No doubt it was a continuation of the reloading phase. Couldn't get out of first gear for the whole match, but that's why I'm more suspect on our Bulldogs fixture. I think we'll beat Port. It depends if we go for the next heavy loading block during the 9 day break or off the back of the Port game. Given the conditions we'll likely face in the NT, it'll be interesting to see.

Edited by A F
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Other than the Brisbane win, our form over the past 6 games has been well below our best. Unless we can turn this around, we will not make top 4. Port will be a real line in the sand game, they are in reasonably good form and need to keep winning to make finals. Bulldogs appear shot. But then it gets really tough, Fremantle would be a strong chance to make the big dance if they can continue their form and secure top two, Collingwood have already torched us, Carlton are in this up to their necks with important players to come in, Brisbane at home. It is in our hands from here, but I don’t like what I have been seeing recently.

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We will win every game from here on. Can't see Port or Dogs putting a win together against us. Freo will be the biggest test, but it'll be on our turf and beyond any loading phases if last year is any guide. We'll get a long overdue win against the Pies. Lions will [censored] the bed in the last round as our fitness and pressure gears up to September levels. 

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56 minutes ago, Billy said:

Let’s win one more first & be guaranteed a finals spot

If we only win one more we wouldn’t deserve to be in the finals and would lose in the first week.

 

I have faith. I think we will win all the remaining games .

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15 minutes ago, gs77 said:

We will win every game from here on. Can't see Port or Dogs putting a win together against us. Freo will be the biggest test, but it'll be on our turf and beyond any loading phases if last year is any guide. We'll get a long overdue win against the Pies. Lions will [censored] the bed in the last round as our fitness and pressure gears up to September levels. 

The Freo game is in Perth

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34 minutes ago, A F said:

No doubt it was a continuation of the reloading phase. Couldn't get out of first gear for the whole match, but that's why I'm more suspect on our Bulldogs fixture. I think we'll beat Port. It depends if we go for the next heavy loading block during the 9 day break or off the back of the Port game. Given the conditions we'll likely face in the NT, it'll be interesting to see.

Yeah, as I have said, I think the loading and intensity of training is a red herring. It happens and I am sure it has an impact but our issues are not so simply solved by more energy on game day. We have connection and pressure issues with our younger and role players and that lack of urgency has been there in fits and starts al season.

Flicking the switch is not easy and it looked like it is back to fits and starts with the evidence of the last three weeks.

Play with no dare and urgency and Port will beat us.

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I think if our game is in good shape as Goodwin has said, we’ll bounce back against Port and also account for the Dogs the week after.

Freo onwards and we’re pretty much playing a finals series before the finals series and we’ll really get to know if we’re any chance of going b2b.

FWIW I having a sneaky feeling we’ll beat Freo. They’ve struggled to move the ball at times and score. I can’t see them doing what they did to us again earlier in the season. 

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We must beat Port and the bulldogs if not the top 4 is in jeopardy. The Freo and Brisbane games will have us as underdogs and the Carlton game will be 50\50 with us slightly in front. We should beat Collingwood. I expect to win 4 of the last 6 but it wouldn't surprise me if we won less.

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Our form as been horrible losing 4 from the past 6 games. The run home is extremely difficult and concerning. All matches are danger games. Losing 5 from 6 sees us potentially not making finals. 

im assuming port, dogs, Carlton and Collingwood as wins… Brisbane and Freo loses. Not entirely certain of the wins…
 

 

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