The Run Home

[loges 6,002]

18 minutes ago, old dee said:

Actually 2.5 which at this point is as good as 3.

Think their form is on the downward trend. Might be as good as 3 ladderwise but not form wise.

Edited July 25, 2022 by loges
incomplete

[Mel Bourne 3,596]

Speaking of running, MFC social media have just released a clip of Tom MacDonald going a fairly purposeful, seemingly-unhindered run at training. 
 

Obviously going to need more time, but early signs are good that he’ll be right for finals. 

[Demon17 4,530]

56 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Even if we went 0-4 and Dogs went 3-1 but overtook us on percentage, one of the following would still need to happen for us miss finals:

Richmond would need to go 4-0 and beat all of Brisbane (MCG), Port (AO), Hawthorn (MCG) and Essendon. Possible I guess but would be a tall order.

OR

St Kilda would need beat all of Hawthorn, Geelong (GMHBA), Brisbane and Sydney. I'd have St Kilda at a 1% chance of achieving that.

If we ended the season 0-5 we'd probably have very little business being in the finals in all honestly.

 

Your right BBP but I see the Dogs as the only threat to 8th place if we go 0 - 4.

Tiges and Saints getting there tiny/negligible rsik of occurring.

With Dogs % will be vital and my run of the Predictor was based on worst case like blowouts of 50 points etc.  If we miss by only a few goalseach game, and my hope is that our defence with Lever back gets into some form, then reasonable chance it will work, but as you say 0 - 5 at end of year we should leave the spot to someone.

[old dee 22,807]

7 minutes ago, loges said:

Think their form is on the downward trend. Might be as good as 3 ladderwise but not form wise.

I hope you are right. 

[Macca 16,173]

55 minutes ago, old dee said:

Actually 2.5 which at this point is as good as 3.

It's not as good as 3 wins if Freo finish half a game behind a rival in a vital spot in the 8

Before the weekend's games Freo were 4th and now they are 5th

If one is only looking at Freo & Demons in isolation then half a win is all that separates both teams ... but it is about all the other teams vying for spots as well

Edited July 25, 2022 by Macca

[old55 21,212]

33 minutes ago, spalding said:

At some point, if we are to win this thing, I think we will need to beat Geelong at the MCG in September.

May as well do it in Week 1 of the the finals from 4th. Then the cats will probably have a 1st Semi versus one of WB, Tigers, Carl or Pies (none of which they would be comfortable about), and then an away prelim to one of Brisbane, Freo, or Sydney.

We can then wait for our Preliminary final opponent (most likely an interstate team - of which the most concerning would probably be Sydney),

 

Completely agree, 4th is the best place to finish if we can't finish 2nd.

[spirit of norm smith 12,833]

Hello Goody - put this up in the locker room. 

MELBOURNE'S difficult run home will see the premier miss the top four, according to our reporters, who predict a Grand Final rematch in the opening week of the finals.

The Demons started the season with 10 straight wins, but have slipped to 13-5 with four rounds remaining.

Melbourne faces top-eight sides Fremantle, Collingwood, Carlton and Brisbane in its final four games and AFL.com.au's reporters collectively predict the Dees will miss the top four. 

[layzie 28,476]

7 minutes ago, spirit of norm smith said:

Hello Goody - put this up in the locker room. 

MELBOURNE'S difficult run home will see the premier miss the top four, according to our reporters, who predict a Grand Final rematch in the opening week of the finals.

The Demons started the season with 10 straight wins, but have slipped to 13-5 with four rounds remaining.

Melbourne faces top-eight sides Fremantle, Collingwood, Carlton and Brisbane in its final four games and AFL.com.au's reporters collectively predict the Dees will miss the top four. 

It makes delicious paper reading for sure. The late bolter no-one expected, the reigning champ with the wheels falling off, pure Wheaties material. 

Edited July 25, 2022 by layzie

[DubDee 20,332]

I reckon we’ll win 2 (Freo and Pies) and make top 4 on %

[rpfc 27,386]

19 hours ago, old dee said:

Actually 2.5 which at this point is as good as 3.

No it’s as good as 2 with a huge percentage boosting loss…

[John Demonic 4,781]

This ladder predictor is super fast, and you can run through the last 4 rounds in a minute or two: and change results to tweak the ladder.

https://predictor.squiggle.com.au

Going 2/2 is just annoying to predict where we end up as its going to be based on who we win or lose to, and what they end up doing but its far from ideal and will most likely have us outside the top 4. Heck, even winning 3/4 can have us outside the 4 on %

If we can beat Coll/Carl/Bris and Freo win all their remaining games, then Friday night is basically the decider for 2nd and loser will end up between 3rd or 5th on %. Syd v Coll is a pretty big game that could decide that order. Melb/Syd/Bris or Melb/Coll/Bris will all come down to %

Beating Freo, Carl and Coll is also going to make Melb v Bris most likely a battle for top 2 finish. But we all know this.

Not worth thinking about losing to Collingwood but winning the other 3 is also going to mean us making top 2 comes down to Coll losing to one of Syd/Carl

Some of the permutations are too much really with 4 rounds to go! Not worth getting worked up about.

Edited July 26, 2022 by John Demonic
too many edits

[JTR 2,627]

I was just about to post the same thing. 

Here is quick worst case scenario if we lose every game and all other results go as you'd expect...

                        W  L  D
 1. Geelong            18  4  0  137.8%
 2. Brisbane Lions     17  5  0  126.4%
 3. Collingwood        17  5  0  106.2%
 4. Fremantle          15  6  1  119.1%
 5. Sydney             15  7  0  126.7%
 6. Carlton            14  8  0  112.8%
 7. Melbourne          13  9  0  120.7%
 8. Western Bulldogs   13  9  0  111.1%
 9. Richmond           11 10  1  111.2%
10. St Kilda           11 11  0   97.1%
11. Gold Coast         10 12  0  104.8%
12. Essendon           10 12  0   92.5%
13. Port Adelaide       9 13  0  101.7%
14. Hawthorn            8 14  0   91.6%
15. Adelaide            7 15  0   87.7%
16. GWS                 5 17  0   85.0%
17. West Coast          2 20  0   58.7%
18. North Melbourne     2 20  0   56.2%

QF1: *GEELONG* v Fremantle
QF2: Brisbane Lions v *COLLINGWOOD*
EF1: *SYDNEY* v Western Bulldogs
EF2: Carlton v *MELBOURNE*

SF1: *FREMANTLE* v Sydney
SF2: Brisbane Lions v *MELBOURNE*

PF1: Geelong v *MELBOURNE*
PF2: *COLLINGWOOD* v Fremantle

 GF: *MELBOURNE* v Collingwood

😎

[JTR 2,627]

Better still if in that scenario, Brisbane beat the Filth in the Qualifying final:

                            


QF1: *GEELONG* v Fremantle
QF2: *BRISBANE LIONS* v Collingwood
EF1: *SYDNEY* v Western Bulldogs
EF2: Carlton v *MELBOURNE*

SF1: *FREMANTLE* v Sydney
SF2: Collingwood v *MELBOURNE*

PF1: Geelong v *MELBOURNE*
PF2: *BRISBANE LIONS* v Fremantle

 GF: *MELBOURNE* v Brisbane Lions

 

All our games would be at the G  👍

[Deenooos_ 647]

Tbh if we lose all the remaining matches and just hold onto 8th we don't really deserve to play finals. I just really hope we don't blow top four now but going 2-2 is not enough if the losses are to the wrong teams.

I think Friday night will be a statement game like it was against Brisbane after the bye. We should look freshened up and loading can be just about forgotten after Friday as it won't be happening anymore.

Our form against top 8 sides doesn't really worry me because we played them all during rounds 11-19 where we had our slump this and last year. Last year we played 3 top 8 sides from r1-10, GWS, SYD and Geelong and won comfortably. This year we didn't play a single top 8 side from r1-10 bar the dogs which in the end was a comfortable win and they are barely top 8.

Remember it's not "who you play" but rather "when you play them". 

- Collingwood should be slowly coming back to earth now as such large winning streaks are taxing both mentally and physically and most of their wins have involved considerable luck and could have really gone either way.

- Carlton are still young and inexperienced and a little flaky

- Brisbane we have the upper hand over beating them in our last 3 encounters and pulling their pants down at the G.

Edited July 25, 2022 by Deenooos_

[rpfc 27,386]

I would prefer us continue losing if we can recapture our selfless pressure game. We can win from anywhere if that is recaptured. Limp into 4th with how we are playing now and it will be straight sets.

Where we finish is irrelevant; it’s how we finish.

[Red But Mostly Blue 3,611]

9 minutes ago, rpfc said:

I would prefer us continue losing if we can recapture our selfless pressure game. We can win from anywhere if that is recaptured. Limp into 4th with how we are playing now and it will be straight sets.

Where we finish is irrelevant; it’s how we finish.

Completely agree with this.

Of all the things we've lost this year (yes, even during the earlier patchy wins this year) it's been our attitude, selflessness and hunger. Maxy said the boys want a dynasty, but to get there we're going to need a serious uptick in the WAY we go about playing these next games. The Hawks and Lions were relentless during their dynasties, and never let up. We need to rediscover our hunger, and the rest will follow - provided we actually address stuff like not bombing into the 50 etc, and some of the boys finding some well overdue form.

We don't need to win all 4, but we do need to go in with confidence and momentum. We need to be feared, as it truly affects how the others will play us. I'm actually a little worried about the Pies game tbh, they properly smoked us last time, and they have their tails up at the moment, they will think/know we're up for grabs on their march into the finals.

[WheeloRatings 900]

2 hours ago, John Demonic said:

This ladder predictor is super fast, and you can run through the last 4 rounds in a minute or two: and change results to tweak the ladder.

https://predictor.squiggle.com.au

Going 2/2 is just annoying to predict where we end up as its going to be based on who we win or lose to, and what they end up doing but its far from ideal and will most likely have us outside the top 4. Heck, even winning 3/4 can have us outside the 4 on %

If we can beat Coll/Carl/Bris and Freo win all their remaining games, then Friday night is basically the decider for 2nd and loser will end up between 3rd or 5th on %. Syd v Coll is a pretty big game that could decide that order. Melb/Syd/Bris or Melb/Coll/Bris will all come down to %

Beating Freo, Carl and Coll is also going to make Melb v Bris most likely a battle for top 2 finish. But we all know this.

Not worth thinking about losing to Collingwood but winning the other 3 is also going to mean us making top 2 comes down to Coll losing to one of Syd/Carl

Some of the permutations are too much really with 4 rounds to go! Not worth getting worked up about.

Based on my simulations (50,000 simulations of the remainder of the season), this is what I get for Melbourne's probability of finishing in each ladder position for a certain number of wins over the last four rounds.

[binman 37,742]

On 7/24/2022 at 6:49 PM, Demonsone said:

We will be going in as underdogs against all the remaining games against top 8 teams & will be lucky to win 1-2 of them based on current form.

 

Depends what metric you want use - the Demonland hand wringing metric  or the betting market metrics.

On the former, we are no chance this Friday night. 

On the latter, we are currently 1.86 favourites. 

[WheeloRatings 900]

6 minutes ago, binman said:

Depends what metric you want use - the Demonland hand wringing metric  or the betting market metrics.

On the former, we are no chance this Friday night. 

On the latter, we are currently 1.86 favourites. 

Yes, realistically we should start favourites against Collingwood and Carlton as well. Collingwood has won a lot of close games so their ladder position probably flatters them somewhat.

[old55 21,212]

Win the next two and we will finish minimum 4th.  I think that's what happens.

[Red But Mostly Blue 3,611]

7 minutes ago, WheeloRatings said:

Yes, realistically we should start favourites against Collingwood and Carlton as well. Collingwood has won a lot of close games so their ladder position probably flatters them somewhat.

Not sure that's exactly right. Collingwood are on the same points as us - plus they smoked us in our earlier meeting.

Plus they have won 3 games vs top 8, compared to our 2. 

AND they are coming in with 9 on the trot - HOT

(One of those wins being against us).

[praha 10,267]

15 minutes ago, WheeloRatings said:

Yes, realistically we should start favourites against Collingwood and Carlton as well. Collingwood has won a lot of close games so their ladder position probably flatters them somewhat.

They've also lost a few close ones. Wining one or two close ones is fair game. Reality is they consistently hold on and find ways to win. They shouldn't be taken lightly.

[Red But Mostly Blue 3,611]

I think we can and should win this Friday. At least on paper.

Let's see where the boys' heads are at and if they are as hungry for back-to-back flags as they said they were .

If we lose, and the rest of the games go the way they should (including perhaps the Lions finally winning at the G), we slip to 6th.

Not an ideal place to launch at the finals. I mean, we need to win at least 2 to make top 4 - so can still do it, but mentally it'll be a slog getting back into the 4 with the games we have left - especially if we lose to Freo. Blood in the water etc.

In short, we need to beat Freo this Friday to make the numbers nicer, but more importantly build momentum and belief.

[WheeloRatings 900]

7 minutes ago, Red But Mostly Blue said:

Not sure that's exactly right. Collingwood are on the same points as us - plus they smoked us in our earlier meeting.

Plus they have won 3 games vs top 8, compared to our 2. 

AND they are coming in with 9 on the trot - HOT

(One of those wins being against us).

 

6 minutes ago, praha said:

They've also lost a few close ones. Wining one or two close ones is fair game. Reality is they consistently hold on and find ways to win. They shouldn't be taken lightly.

I agree they shouldn't be taken lightly and I won't be confident at all when we play them. They are 8-1 in games decided by 12 points or less, which is an amazing record (don't get me wrong). They have done very well to win all those close games but there's an element of luck in winning close games.

They gave away a free kick to Essendon in front of goal inside the last minute. If they kick that goal, Collingwood lose and they're 7th. I don't want to take anything away from them subsequently going coast-to-coast and Elliott kicking an incredible goal after the siren, but they weren't in control of the Essendon shot at goal.

I'm not saying they're not a good side, I just think that 13-5 and 4th flatters them a little bit considering their % is only 106.

[layzie 28,476]

I'm holding onto the hope that this could all rapidly change this time next week.